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Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-11, 05:48 PM
So I was building a character and decided to try to figure out what his average damage would be on his "nova" attack. Since this was just a theoretical build, I figured I'd have him try to take on Orcus, since I gave him the Godhunter Epic Destiny. The deal is, I can't really determine an easy way to figure it up. I ran through a very long and complex process and got to a final answer of 159.836 damage, but I have no idea if that is right. I'm kinda wanting to see if one of the more math savvy types can help me figure out the answer.

I would use the level 29 Daily Three-in-One Shot, which is Dex vs AC, three attacks, and if I hit with the first attack I get a +5 bonus to hit on the second and third attacks. Each attack is 2[W]+Dex, miss half. I can then, as an immediate interrupt, use Lightning Shot which allows for a Dex vs AC attack against an opponent who just took damage. 2[W]+Dex damage, or 3[W]+Dex damage to a bloodied target. Combat Advantage can likely be assumed due to the sneaky nature of the character and a Cloak of Invisibility.

So all the relevant information (I believe) is as follows:
Dex Mod: +8 attack/damage
Half Level: +15 attack
Weapon Proficiency: +2 attack
Weapon Enhancement: +6 attack/damage (+6d6 damage on crit)
Weapon Focus(Bow): +3 damage
Bracers of Archery: +6 damage
Hunter's Quarry: +3d6 damage
Sneak Attack (from Sneak of Shadows feat): +4d6
Most Dangerous Prey: +6 damage vs humanoid quarry
Bleeding Precision: Ongoing 5 with Daily attack
Ongoing Punishment: +6 to Ongoing Damage
Devastating Crit: +1d10 on crit
Correcting Aim: +2 to Attack on next attack against quarry after a miss

What this boils down to, if I got it right, is +33 to my first and fourth attacks (assuming CA) and +38 to the second and third attacks if the first hits, +33 otherwise. If any attack misses, the following attack gains a +2 untyped modifier to hit. Each hit will deal 2d12+29 damage, and if any attacks hit HQ and SA will add an additional 7d6 damage. Any crit will add 6d6+1d10 extra damage. If any of the first three attacks hit, an additional 11 ongoing damage will be applied.

You can see how this math can get kinda ugly. To solve it, I had to compile the 81 different possible damages and the corresponding 81 different probabilities, then work that together to get my final average. I then realized that I forgot to calculate that this character can also reroll two attacks. I have no way of figuring out how to factor that in, nor do I want to have to crunch all those numbers again.

So I lay it before you, my fellow forumites, to help me.

NPCMook
2009-03-11, 09:57 PM
You people and your Maths scare me:smalleek:

Though a question, why didn't you add one the feats to up your HQ and SA to d8's?

Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-11, 10:02 PM
Well, I probably could go back and sub Lethal Hunter in there somewhere, but Backstabber being useful only once an encounter was kinda out. I've just understood that those feats were relatively underpowered, so I grabbed other feats instead. This was originally a character concept build, that just happened to deal a good deal of damage (from my reckoning).

Oracle_Hunter
2009-03-11, 10:07 PM
So, I'm no math person, but here's how the Original Orcus Slayer (http://forums.gleemax.com/showthread.php?t=1040811) did his math. It might give you all the tools you need to calculate your average damage output. :smallsmile:

Mando Knight
2009-03-11, 10:24 PM
You can't take Immediate actions on your own turn (PHB 268). However, you can activate Lightning Shot as an Immediate Reaction when Orcus takes his Ongoing Damage from one of your previous attacks... and more likely to activate against a bloodied opponent, since the target just took a bit of extra damage...

NecroRebel
2009-03-11, 10:37 PM
As Mando said, no immediate actions on your turn. Also, Sneak Attack deals 5d6 at epic tier, not 4d6. As a result of the former, I wouldn't count Lightning Shot in your single-round-damage calculations. However, you could use an action point to use another attack power; Bloodstorm seems to be the highest-damage one you've got (2 attacks for 2W+Dex+other each). Further, you don't seem to be using any utility boosts, such as Stances, so look into those for further damage buffs if you have room in the build.

Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-11, 10:52 PM
Dang Mando, you are right. I forgot about that stipulation on Immediate actions. It still could count as "one round of damage", assuming I have some sort of companion dealing some sort of damage or the ongoing damage is dealt. However, since this isn't one attack, I won't count it.

So three attacks, from Three-in-One Shot. A bit less damage, but still not bad. However, I also forgot to include another d6 on my SA. I still would like
someone to help me with the maths if they can.

Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-12, 04:42 PM
I was able to get Excel to help me out a touch. Since Mando pointed out me only having the attacks fro Three-in-One Shot, then adding the Lethal Hunter upgrade and missing die of SA damage, I ended up with 128.89 average damage plus 11 ongoing damage.

...if anyone cares.

Artanis
2009-03-12, 06:05 PM
I must be missing something, because I was never terribly impressed with Lethal Hunter and Backstabber. Going from d6 to d8 increases the average by a whopping one damage per die, and you only deal HQ/SA damage once per round. Since HQ and SA top out at three and five dice (respectively), it just looks kinda...pathetic. So there has to be something I'm not seeing that makes everybody so enamored with them.

Arbitrarity
2009-03-12, 06:22 PM
I must be missing something, because I was never terribly impressed with Lethal Hunter and Backstabber. Going from d6 to d8 increases the average by a whopping one damage per die, and you only deal HQ/SA damage once per round. Since HQ and SA top out at three and five dice (respectively), it just looks kinda...pathetic. So there has to be something I'm not seeing that makes everybody so enamored with them.

Nah, not really. Weapon Focus tends to be better, though mostly for Rangers. Rogues get good mileage out of Backstabber + Assassin's Point, though. But that's Assassin's Point, I mean, really. Also, crits. D8's are more satisfying?

Weapon Expertise will obviously be better.

Oh. Weapon Proficiency (Greatbow). Get it. Get it now. Seriously. D12's are much better with all the [w] you'll be tossing around.

Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-12, 07:08 PM
I already took weapon focus and WP(Greatbow). I must be missing weapon expertise...

Douglas
2009-03-12, 07:50 PM
Weapon Expertise is a new feat in the PHB2, which apparently came out overseas earlier than its scheduled release date for the US. It adds +1 to attack rolls with a chosen weapon group, scaling to +2 at level 15 and +3 at level 25.

ISTR an analysis complete with table that showed the number on the die required to hit an equal level monster on average goes up by 3 or 4 points from level 1 to level 30, and apparently WotC noticed this fact and decided to fix it with a feat (two, actually, there's also Implement Expertise). Or they just decided for no reason to break their rule about limiting attack bonuses, but that analysis gives a good argument for not banning the feat regardless.

Yakk
2009-03-13, 09:11 AM
Using a spreadsheet, a polynomial combinatorics library, or a programming language can help.

Your first goal should be to write the following:
AverageDamage( Crit, Hit, Miss, Crit Damage, Hit Damage, Miss Damage )

Having that around to use makes things much easier.

Now, the bloodied problem is going to be similar to the other problems you'll encounter, but it is an unneeded complication.

You want to build the tree of possible results. The root of each tree is the earliest attack in the tree. Each tree node has 3 branches -- Hit, Miss and Crit. (You can probably get away with 2 branches, and tack on extra damage from crits).

The average damage done after a given attack then becomes the damage done BY this attack given hit/miss/crit, plus the average damage done by the tree of events that follow this attack.

In a decent programming language this isn't hard to express. Just tedious.

In a spreadsheet, it gets a bit trickier. Spreadsheets are intended for 2 or 3 dimensional input grids. You can fake it using exponential addressing and the like.

Artanis
2009-03-13, 10:37 AM
Weapon Expertise is a new feat in the PHB2, which apparently came out overseas earlier than its scheduled release date for the US. It adds +1 to attack rolls with a chosen weapon group, scaling to +2 at level 15 and +3 at level 25.
Also, the Wizards site has an excerpt (which, surprisingly, doesn't require DDI) with one of the shorthand list-table-thingies of feats from PH2. It's fairly easy to use the excerpt to intuit a lot of feats, including Weapon/Implement Expertise.

its_all_ogre
2009-03-14, 10:17 AM
I must be missing something, because I was never terribly impressed with Lethal Hunter and Backstabber. Going from d6 to d8 increases the average by a whopping one damage per die, and you only deal HQ/SA damage once per round. Since HQ and SA top out at three and five dice (respectively), it just looks kinda...pathetic. So there has to be something I'm not seeing that makes everybody so enamored with them.

hunters action and slaying action allow both SA and HQ on an action point even if they've already been used that turn.

backstabber is always worth it imo, especially for crits and daggermaster PP you'll be getting plenty of them.

Artanis
2009-03-14, 01:04 PM
predatory action and slaying action allow both SA and HQ on an action point even if they've already been used that turn.

backstabber is always worth it imo, especially for crits and daggermaster PP you'll be getting plenty of them.
*looks them up* *fixes name* *goes on with post*

Thanks to this post, I seem to have found what I was missing. Yes, MP has stuff that makes Backstabber and Lethal Hunter more worthwhile, making the assessment that they're pretty good now quite understandable. But AFAIK the attitude of "OMGWTFNEED" has been around since before MP came out. So I still didn't know what started it all.

For Backstabber, your mention of Daggermaster prompted me to look at the Rogue more carefully than I had before. In doing so, I've noticed a decent number of powers that have larger-than-normal crit ranges, increasing the effect of Backstabber more than I had realized. It still doesn't look nearly as ridiculously good as many people made it out to be, but god knows there's worse feats out there. So I can see why a Rogue will pretty much always wind up with it sooner or later, but I still don't see why it will ALWAYS be your FIRST choice regardless of race, build, power selection, party makeup, loot, typical enemies encountered, other available feats, and planned PP and Epic Destiny.

For Lethal Hunter, not so much. The biggest reason I can see for taking it is because of how much the other Heroic Tier feats tend to suck, especially for shooty Rangers. I'd still take Weapon Focus first though.

Mauril Everleaf
2009-03-15, 01:14 AM
@Yakk: Yeah, if I had a Java compiler (the one programming language I still remember some of) I probably would have just done something in that. I think I mentioned that I was able to figure average damage kind of the long way. I then realized that I had the ability to make two re-rolls. I have no clue how to figure those. Any help?

Yakk
2009-03-15, 10:58 AM

A: Crit
B: Hit
C: Miss, no reroll
D: Miss, reroll

The value of the node is then:
A+B+max(C,D)

The difference between C and D child nodes is that in D, no child is allowed to attempt to reroll. In D, one child is. Whichever child does 'graduates' to the 'no rerolls allowed' branch.

In a real language, you could do this up in a two-layer dynamic programming problem (one for a single round, outputting the distribution of the branches, and one for an entire tree rooted at a particular state).

Working out where the bloodied point is ends up being an extra complication.

You can build a fast, simple, algebraic model easy. Building the exact result is a computer science or combinatorics problem.