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View Full Version : [4e] WotC releases free PDFs! Keep on the Shadowfell and Quick Start Rules



cdrcjsn
2009-04-28, 07:50 PM
WotC has released PDFs of Keep on the Shadowfell and the Quick Start Rules.

http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4news/20090428
It seems that both the Quick Start Rules and the actual mod have been modified with errata and to make them more current.

Pretty neat in my opinion, and perfect for introducing new players at conventions and game days.

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-28, 08:43 PM
Nice find!

Did they also fix the stupid encounter design in KotS?

RTGoodman
2009-04-28, 09:37 PM
Nice find!

Did they also fix the stupid encounter design in KotS?

It doesn't look like it at first glance, but I don't have my copy on-hand or know enough about it to completely compare.

The infamous Irontooth encounter is listed as "Encounter Level 6," and features 3 Kobold Skirmishers and 10 Kobold Minions in the first wave, and then 2 Kobold Denwardens, 1 Kobold Wyrmpriest, and Irontooth in the second wave three rounds later. I don't know if that's a change or not, but if the stupid encounter design had been fixed anywhere, that's where I'd expect it.

Saph
2009-04-28, 09:38 PM
Pity about the Character Builder. I wanted to try it out, but they still haven't made it compatible with my OS.

- Saph

Holocron Coder
2009-04-28, 09:45 PM
That's... kinda annoying, seeing as I bought the thing :smallannoyed:


Saph: Which OS? Or, better yet, any news if they're going to do any other OS?

Saph
2009-04-28, 09:58 PM
Saph: Which OS? Or, better yet, any news if they're going to do any other OS?

I use a Mac. According to their FAQ, the Character Builder works with Windows Server 2003, Server 2008, Vista, and XP.

- Saph

Rockphed
2009-04-28, 10:18 PM
I can't seem to install the character builder. It freezes when it tries installing .net framework 3.5(SP1) and accumulates 700K page faults in a few seconds. Any advice?

Colmarr
2009-04-28, 10:25 PM
I'm curious whether this signifies the "D&D death spiral" that Ryan Dancey was predicting, or whether it's simply a taster by WotC preparing the market for in-house pdf sales via the D&D website.

I suppose time will tell.

Mando Knight
2009-04-28, 10:31 PM
I can't seem to install the character builder. It freezes when it tries installing .net framework 3.5(SP1) and accumulates 700K page faults in a few seconds. Any advice?

Running Windows or Not-Windows?

Try installing the most current form of the .NET framework directly from Microsoft. If you're not running XP SP2, you might need to download the full version rather than the client version. Not sure why, though. :smallconfused:

TheEmerged
2009-04-28, 10:33 PM
It doesn't look like it at first glance, but I don't have my copy on-hand or know enough about it to completely compare.

The infamous Irontooth encounter is listed as "Encounter Level 6," and features 3 Kobold Skirmishers and 10 Kobold Minions in the first wave, and then 2 Kobold Denwardens, 1 Kobold Wyrmpriest, and Irontooth in the second wave three rounds later. I don't know if that's a change or not, but if the stupid encounter design had been fixed anywhere, that's where I'd expect it.

That encounter is infamous? The party I DM for had a little trouble with it (as in, they actually used their daily powers and I've joked about my players' relunctance to do so on these boards before) but nothing terrifying. The module is designed around a five-player party, if I recall right. They were level appropriate and had no magic items not given by the module (I had to switch out some magic items given later in the module to be appropriate for the party). We didn't do it with the published characters though, we used a genasi swordmage, halfling rogue, dwarf laser cleric, eladrin wizard, and dragonborn warlord.


Running Windows or Not-Windows?

Try installing the most current form of the .NET framework directly from Microsoft. If you're not running XP SP2, you might need to download the full version rather than the client version. Not sure why, though. :smallconfused:

Not sure if it's the same problem I've had with other programs, but it might actually be the reverse of this. Vista doesn't like some older versions of .NET and none of the fixes I've seen for this on the internet have worked for me.

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-28, 10:49 PM
That encounter is infamous? The party I DM for had a little trouble with it (as in, they actually used their daily powers and I've joked about my players' relunctance to do so on these boards before) but nothing terrifying. The module is designed around a five-player party, if I recall right. They were level appropriate and had no magic items not given by the module (I had to switch out some magic items given later in the module to be appropriate for the party). We didn't do it with the published characters though, we used a genasi swordmage, halfling rogue, dwarf laser cleric, eladrin wizard, and dragonborn warlord.
The reason it's infamous is because it either turns into a cakewalk or a TPK - the encounter composition is just too swingy for some reason.

Anyhoo, I'm sure this is just a tester for future products. KotS has picked up a lot of negative flak as a module so I guess they didn't feel too bad about releasing it for free. I doubt they'll do this for future products... though they may start putting old modules on DDI to lure in more subscribers.

RTGoodman
2009-04-28, 11:02 PM
I'm curious whether this signifies the "D&D death spiral" that Ryan Dancey was predicting, or whether it's simply a taster by WotC preparing the market for in-house pdf sales via the D&D website.

WotC has posted adventures on its website for years and years. You can still find stuff a bunch of 3.x-version ones HERE (http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/oa/20030530b), include some introductory ones a lot like KotS. (Dark & Stormy Knight is a favorite of a lot of my friends, for instance, as a beginning adventure.)

I'm thinking it's more to do with them wanting to get an adventure online for free for new players to play through without having to buy everything. Since it's packaged online with both the sample characters AND a link to the Character Creator demo, I think it's more of an online starter kit than anything else.

As to being a test for in-house PDF sales, we'll have to wait for that.

Colmarr
2009-04-28, 11:06 PM
WotC has posted adventures on its website for years and years.

True, but it's disingenuous to compare KotS to a Dark and Stormy Knight.

KotS is 71 page full-colour, and was originally (and as far as I know quite recently) sold as a commercial product.

There's something more at play than "they've always given adventures away".

Break
2009-04-28, 11:27 PM
While the possibility of the 4E death spiral occurred to me too when I saw this, I believe that this is simply supposed to act as the 4E equivalent of the 3.x SRD in that it provides an opportunity to try out the game, minus a few rules, without buying the books. Granted, the quick rules are more stripped down than the SRD's were, but it still makes sense that WotC would do this to address one barrier to getting into 4E without it necessarily meaning that the edition is on the decline.

Kurald Galain
2009-04-29, 03:23 AM
I'm curious whether this signifies the "D&D death spiral" that Ryan Dancey was predicting,

Please elaborate?

bosssmiley
2009-04-29, 05:02 AM
Please elaborate?

Ryan on RPGPundit (posting in the wake of the recent pdf debacle):


This is a classic example of Death Spiral. As things go bad, the regressive forces inside the organization (lawyers, commissioned sales people, creative folk who feel stifled by history, precariously tenured executives) are increasingly able to exert their agenda. It always makes a bad situation worse, but there's no magic bullet that would likely make the bad situation better so you get a rapid unbalance in the Corporate Force towards the Dark Side.

> OGL? Risky (someone might make us look bad, steal our ideas before we print them, or create a competitive brand that siphons off sales), and lack of faith in network marketing devalues ROI assumptions. Kill it.

> PDF? Causes endless problems with hardcopy partners creating pressure on sales team they could really do without, and revenues are so small as to be non-strategic. Cut it.

> Online? Every time you talk about it someone produces a $10 million minimum cost estimate to "do it right". After spending 3-5x this amount in a series of failed initiatives (lead by utterly unqualified people), executives assume Online is plutonium. No qualified lead or team will touch it.

> Evergreen? Sales of each unit are going down and few products have any staying power. The only (seemingly viable) solution is to put more books in production - make up for the revenue hole caused by lack of evergreen sales by getting more money out of each customer. The Treadmill.

The next things that will take hits are the RPGA (costs a lot to operate - slash it's budget), then quality (put fewer words and less art on fewer pages and raise the price), then consistency (rules varients generated by inexperienced designers and/or overworked developers start to spawn and cohesion in rulings breaks down leading to ad hoc interpretations as the de facto way to play).

Meanwhile sales just keep going down, the gap in the budget keeps getting bigger, and no matter how many heads roll, there isn't any light at the end of the tunnel.

Wizards is about to be forced into the D&D end-game which is something that many publishers have gone through but none ever with a game the scale and impact of D&D (TSR walked right up to this cliff but WotC saved them from going over the edge). There are 3 outcomes:

1: A total collapse, and the game ceases meaningful publication and distribution at least for one gamer generation and maybe forever.

2: Downsizing until overhead matches income; could involve some kind of out-license or spin off of the business - think BattleTech in its current incarnation.

3: Traumatic rebirth, meaning that someone, somewhere finds some way to cut out the cancers that are eating the tabletop game and restarts the mass market business for D&D.

Note that 2 and 3 can be mileposts on the road to 1.

RyanD


and


Let's think this through. I can give you some pointers, because I've been in the room when these kinds of decisions were made.

Wizards knows how many PHB1 they printed. They know how well they've been selling since release. A quick look at my local B&N shows me how many 4E products they've pumped out in the ensuing time, and they know the sales on each of those products as well. They are operating in what I would call an "information rich" environment.

They also know roughly how many units the buyers at the big chain bookstores are going to take long before the books are printed. The solicitation cycles for the bookstores are longer than the production cycles which means Wizards often has the luxury of "printing to order". When I left the company, book store sales were about 50% of the total volume. Since there's been about a 50% dieoff in hobby gaming retailers since then I assume that the ratio is now closer to 75%. The book chain buyers have very good data warehouses and are able to inspect sales on a title by title, store by store basis. While they don't always do as much research as they could, they often do enough to get pretty close to the expected run rate for a given title. They too are "information rich".

What does this tell us about scarcity for PHB2? It tells us that 4E in general is selling poorly. It tells us that given the insider information, the publisher and the market-maker both had less confidence in this signature product than necessary to meet demand. That's a scary, scary mistake to be making at this stage in the game. The driver behind this is overstock. Neither the sales team at Wizards, nor the buying team at the chain bookstores, wants any overstock inventory. If the book does not become evergreen, the overstock will have to be liquidated and due to the way cost accoutning works, the "charge" for that liquidation will come in some time period other than the period where the profits were made. For a host of accountancy reasons, that can be a budget - and comission - killer.

The natural reaction of a sales team in a declining, underperforming market is to undershoot the demand curve - to genreate artificial scarcity. They'll sell all the books that get produced and lock in their gains, and if some customers don't get the product, well, that's not too harmful in the scheme of things. (Well, it's not too harmful unless your underprinting chokes what might have been a resurgence in demand leading to a recovery in the business, but that's a bird in the bush scenario and these are scary ****ing times for publishers and retailers alike!)

Or maybe it's just a fluke, and there's inventory sitting in stores in one area of the country unsold while books in other areas are flying off shelves as fast as they can be stocked. Or maybe there's another wave of books coming, because the production run had to be split into two for logistical reasons. Or maybe there's an astroturfing campaign underway to simulate consumer demand that doesn't really exist, etc. etc. etc.

By my money is on "internal decision maker doesn't believe in the product" as the reason you're seeing scarcity.

RyanD

and


Woah there Colonel! I'm just saying that 4E "scarcity" is likely the result of under estimating demand. I'll say that it >COULD< be due to artifical market manipulation, but Occam's Razor would indicate that we should just go with plain old fear, not malevolence.

@Anonymous - 60 copies a day? Whoo-doggie! That's 1,800 copies a month! :)

We sold 300,000 copies of the 3E PHB in 30 DAYS. I have a screen shot of Amazon with the 3E PHB in the #1 slot. If I was running the D&D business and I produced a high-profile core rulebook that sold 1,800 copies a month, I'd pretty much have to tender my resignation - unless THAT'S THE NEW NORM. Which it probably is. Which says a lot more about tabletop roleplaying as a business than it does about the WotC team as business people.

RyanD

source (http://rpgpundit.xanga.com/698172157/item/?page=1&jump=1481948581#1481948581)

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-29, 12:22 PM
Dude has clearly taken the Doomsayer PP :smalltongue:

Yeah, there are way too many assumptions on internal corporate practices and sales numbers in putting this thing together. In particular, I find then 3E/4E sales comparison amusing - PHB1 was released in 2000 when WotC was still running its brand-stores and Amazon.com had few online book competitors. Not to mention, of course, the impact DDI would have on book sales.

And, you know, the recession.

I'm not looking to start a fight here, mind you, but I can't say I'm convinced that 4E is in some sort of "death spiral" based off his assertions.

arguskos
2009-04-29, 12:28 PM
I'm not sure 4e is either Oracle, but, when someone who was in the business makes these sorts of notations, it's worth a listen. There's some merit to his assertions, though I really do think we need more time and data to make such overarching assumptions. Just 2cp and whatnot.

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-29, 12:39 PM
I'm not sure 4e is either Oracle, but, when someone who was in the business makes these sorts of notations, it's worth a listen. Actually, that's a good question. What Ryan is this anyhow?

I'm not really "on" RPG.net, so I actually don't know? Anyone?

arguskos
2009-04-29, 12:44 PM
http://www.pen-paper.net/rpgdb.php?op=showcreator&creatorid=389

Here you are, Ryan Dancey's portfolio. Seems like he knows his stuff.

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-29, 12:56 PM
http://www.pen-paper.net/rpgdb.php?op=showcreator&creatorid=389

Here you are, Ryan Dancey's portfolio. Seems like he knows his stuff.
Ah, so that's who he is. Well, it does explain his measured tone in the later posts - though I am a bit surprised by his first one. Did WotC do a "death spiral" before? :smallconfused:

arguskos
2009-04-29, 01:01 PM
No, but TSR followed this when they died, as he notes. D&D only survived thanks to WotC buying TSR and making some smart decisions, which si to their credit.

Further, other games have as well I would think (I don't know them though, but I can only assume that other games have).

FoE
2009-04-29, 01:07 PM
I'm not looking to start a fight here, mind you, but I can't say I'm convinced that 4E is in some sort of "death spiral" based off his assertions.

Everything is always the sign that it's all coming to an end, OH. And there's nothing you can do to stop it, and you can't ignore it, since that would also be part of everything and therefore a sure sign of impending disaster.

Oh, we're doomed! Every year we're doomed!

arguskos
2009-04-29, 01:09 PM
Oh, we're doomed! Every year we're doomed!
You sound suspiciously like Xan... "We're all doomed."

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-29, 01:23 PM
No, but TSR followed this when they died, as he notes. D&D only survived thanks to WotC buying TSR and making some smart decisions, which si to their credit.

Further, other games have as well I would think (I don't know them though, but I can only assume that other games have).
Hmm... even so, I don't know if I buy his "insider analysis" regarding online sales

> Online? Every time you talk about it someone produces a $10 million minimum cost estimate to "do it right". After spending 3-5x this amount in a series of failed initiatives (lead by utterly unqualified people), executives assume Online is plutonium. No qualified lead or team will touch it.
Considering that WotC has already implemented DDI and, at least anecdotally, works OK, I don't know whether we can take this analysis at face value.


When I left the company, book store sales were about 50% of the total volume. Since there's been about a 50% dieoff in hobby gaming retailers since then I assume that the ratio is now closer to 75%. The book chain buyers have very good data warehouses and are able to inspect sales on a title by title, store by store basis. While they don't always do as much research as they could, they often do enough to get pretty close to the expected run rate for a given title. They too are "information rich".

What does this tell us about scarcity for PHB2? It tells us that 4E in general is selling poorly. It tells us that given the insider information, the publisher and the market-maker both had less confidence in this signature product than necessary to meet demand. That's a scary, scary mistake to be making at this stage in the game. The driver behind this is overstock. Neither the sales team at Wizards, nor the buying team at the chain bookstores, wants any overstock inventory. If the book does not become evergreen, the overstock will have to be liquidated and due to the way cost accoutning works, the "charge" for that liquidation will come in some time period other than the period where the profits were made. For a host of accountancy reasons, that can be a budget - and comission - killer.
Ryan Dancey left WotC in 2001 (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/5/858/8b3) and did not get back into the gaming industry until 2007. His analysis is absolutely correct for bookstores but, IIRC, Amazon.com and other online retailers do not use the "overstock liquidation" style contract - that would rather defeat the purpose of being a net-only industry.

It is quite possible that WotC has gone soft on brick & mortar retailers, but I don't think this was to create an "artificial scarcity." I haven't run the numbers, but most 4E products on Amazon.com (http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw_0_11?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=4th+edition+d%26d&x=0&y=0&sprefix=4th+edition) seem to be readily available. In fact, only PHB II seems to have any sort of delay (1-3 weeks). I suppose WotC might have wanted to create artificial scarcity on PHB II to drum up support for other 4E products, but I guess it doesn't make much sense to me.

That said, Ryan Dancey is far more qualified to talk about RPG marketing than I am - I just don't understand why he seems to ignore the differences between online and brick & mortar book selling.

arguskos
2009-04-29, 01:26 PM
I'm not sure either. However, I'll certainly keep this guys opinions in mind while watching this develop more. I do wish that we could access WotC's financial info, but oh well.

chiasaur11
2009-04-29, 01:34 PM
You sound suspiciously like Xan... "We're all doomed."

Me, I always think Puddleglum. Followed in short order by movieverse Marvin the Paranoid android.

arguskos
2009-04-29, 01:35 PM
Me, I always think Puddleglum. Followed in short order by movieverse Marvin the Paranoid android.
Those work too. :smallbiggrin: Gotta love some Puddleglum. Marshwiggles might be the best race ever.

Waspinator
2009-04-29, 01:36 PM
It's hard to say for sure, but it seems like 4Es biggest problem is 3E. Basically, the company decided to move on before a lot of its customers wanted to. And, thanks to the continuing rise of the internet as a gaming resource, everyone knows that there is still 3E demand because there are still a lot of people talking about it! This isn't like some transitions in the past, where it would be easy for a customer to assume that everyone else will be upgrading because he didn't have much contact with them. I mean, just look at this forum. We do see 4E threads, but a LOT of the threads are still 3E. At least in this little community, Wizards has failed with its new edition. And, while we can't assume that we're representative, it does show that it's not anywhere near a 100% conversion rate. Heck, the mere existence of Pathfinder should say a lot. Basically, what I'm saying is that there are some legitimate reasons to think that 4E's not doing so hot. The fact that we're in a recession only makes it more likely. People don't want to essentially re-buy stuff right now.

Eh, but what do I know. I'm not an insider or anything, just some random poster. Maybe Wizards is still making enough money from 4E despite everything that they're happy. Without access to all of their books, there's no way to know for sure. Still, you have to wonder if they would've made more money sticking with 3.5...

Oracle_Hunter
2009-04-29, 01:51 PM
I'm not sure either. However, I'll certainly keep this guys opinions in mind while watching this develop more. I do wish that we could access WotC's financial info, but oh well.
Well... here's Hasbro's stock info (http://markets.chron.com/chron/?Page=QUOTE&Ticker=HAS). It looks like CCP NA (White Wolf's owner) is privately held, as is WizKids (Shadowrun's owner). I can't find anyone else being publicly traded, so I guess there's not much information to be had - unless you have a Bloomberg account :smalltongue:

Still, by all means he is a man who's opinions are well-informed, but I am worried both by his lack of analysis regarding online book sales and his vested interest in WotC losing market share - his current employer being CCP NA.