Magic Missile vs. Other Spells

[robbie374]

Magic Missile hits with its 1d4+1 damage (3.5 average) every time (except against Shield). How does this compare with other spells like Blight, Disintegrate, Scorching Ray, and Vitriolic Sphere that do high average damage but with attacks or saves to overcome?

Along the same lines, how likely is it for such spells to do damage against enemies a character is expected to face from level to level? Presumably as PC level increases, so does enemy CR. Is it easier to target AC or Dex or Wis or Con saves during certain tiers of play?

[hymer]

Is it easier to target AC or Dex or Wis or Con saves during certain tiers of play?

AC is the easiest defence to target as a rule of thumb. Saves start three and a half points behind (8+prof compared to 10.5+prof, and a save is successful rolling right on the DC, while the attack is successful on the AC). And then there's a crit chance as well.
That said, wisdom scores don't rise as fast in general as AC or Con.

But in the end, it depends on the stat block you're attacking. Having more than one option is the better way to plan.

[Aaron Underhand]

Magic missile starts as an excellent spell, but tails off as cantrips scale and outpace it. However it always remains a great utility spell because:

It always hits - when you absolutely need to do one point more damage
Force damage is very rarely resisted
It will hit multiple targets
It can be upcast to hit even more targets - often useful for a "shot across the bows"
The low individual missile damage allows some creative uses, such as hitting your own party members to wake them or force another save.

I have found it excellent for that final takedown - no one complains about 'kill stealing' in 5e - allowing a monster on 1HP another round of actions is too dangerous.

It's also great to divert one missile to force a Con save on an enemy caster - especially when three members of the party all have the spell available. If that pulls out a shield spell so much the better - one less spell coming back at you, and the other missiles probably did some damage...

Edit with some numbers.

Even against High AC firebolt will tend to match Magic missile at 11th level, so its utility is matched by it's resource usage.
Warlock EB probably outmatches at 5th, Casters who add Stat to cantrips (Dragon sorc, Arcarna cleric, Evokers) with Firebolt probably at 8th, but not everyone gets that. Plenty of Wizards and Sorcerers will want it until 11th, after which I don't see that it will justify a spell slot. My Bard N/Wiz 1 may keep it until 17th, unless he picks up EB via a feat... but that is more for his supporting role and anti-mage duties than for damage (good to get friends out of your own hypnotic pattern... plus to give credence to a phantasmal image of yourself plinking away at an enemy....)

[Naanomi]

I agree with all that above; however I will also add that the difference between MM and other Attack magic is not so great that you would be crippled emphasing MM in a build. I played a Wild-Magic sorcerer who (for reasons) took no spells with Material components; and I used MM (along with animated objects) as my main battle tactic into higher levels and had a good time with it.

[StoicLeaf]

errrr...

The trade off with magic missile is a guaranteed hit for less damage in a damage type that is very unlikely to be resisted.

In general terms, regarding CR, saves, etc:

It really depends on what sort of fight it is.
Ultimately, from a numbers point of view, you want to see what's higher;

your chance to hit with a ranged spell attack: 1d20+mod+prof vs their AC.
-or-
the enemies chance to save: 1d20+mod(+prof) vs your 8+mod+prof.

Thing is, a DM isn't going to tell you the stats or let you run simulations in the background, you're going to have to eyeball it.

My decision chain would go something like this:

1) does it have more levels than I do? Determine this by listening to the DM narrate the creature and see how many minions it has. (i.e. what is its proficiency score).
2) how shiny is its armor and what is the creature's build? (it's a legitimate RP question and will help you determine AC).
3) If I had to describe the creature in terms of PC classes, what would it be? (i.e. what are its boosted stats).

Ok, so a quick test:
I'm a level 7 mage and walk into a room with my 3 buddies and an armor plated gentleman with holy symbols adorning his armor tells me to go plow a goat. I tell him I visited his mother yesterday! Combat ensues!

1) a 1Mv4PC fight, going by the DMG, is a fight versus a monster with near equal level to the PCs. Let's be cautious and give him +1 prof.
2) his armor is super shiny and he has a 2 handed sword! Let's say AC 18.
3) Maybe a paladin? He looks strong, so let's say paladin; holes in his stats are gonna be dex, int, maybe wis, str and cha are going to be problematic.

OK, so my scorching ray fired at level 4 will be 8d6 fire damage. I have 18 int (so +4, and +3 prof), so my chance to hit this guy is 50%. Law of averages can be applied to scorching ray, giving me an average damage of 14 (8*3.5*50%).
My blight spell will do 8x8 damage (average: 36). Now he has to beat my DC15. Chances of doing that? Let's say he has a con of 14 and the DM has given him proficiency on this save; front line fighter, after all! So his chance of resisting my blight is: 60%. so my average damage with blight will be: 60%*18 + 40%*36 = 25.2.
You could now ask yourself: "how crappy would his armor have to be for my scorching ray to be better?!".
Some quick math reveals: AC 10.

-20 minutes of maths later-
Ok so my gut feeling is telling me that DC based spells are going to be better in a "balanced" comparison PROVIDED the spell has a "half damage on save". The problem with ranged spell attacks is that if you miss, you do no damage. Perhaps agonizing blast will perform better but I think that's something you can math out yourself ;p

[Aaron Underhand]

Interesting, because if you can't do this analysis on the fly a Magic Missile, upcast to level 4 does an expected 21 points of damage - nicely in the middle of your range, and no thought, and no need to have those two spells prepared....

EDIT:
Of course a 7th level Paladin could have a Con save of 10 ... in which case blight does 21.6 if I have my maths right...

and a 7th level Warlock2/Sorcerer 5 could quicken agonising blast to cast it twice for an expected 19 - using 2 Sorcery points instead of a 4th level spell slot....