ghost_warlock

2008-07-22, 05:33 AM

I was looking through my Monster Manual tonight and it seemed to me that many of the low-level creatures had a disproportionately low Will defense compared to the other defenses. Being suitably bored, I decided to run some numbers. :smalltongue:

Given time constraints, etc., I only calculated odds for levels 1, 2, and 3 creatures (including minions, etc.); creatures likely to be encountered by brand-spanking new characters. All figures assume a 16 in relevant PC statistic and a +2 Proficiency bonus from weapon for vs. AC attacks. PC level was calculated as equal to monster level (so 2nd-level and higher PCs gain the +1 bonus to attacks from the +1/2 level mechanic).

Against level 1 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 54.33% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 57% vs. Fort, 52% vs. Ref, and 62% vs. Will.

Against level 2 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 55.56% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 58.06% vs. Fort, 56.39% vs. Ref, and 62.22% vs. Will.

Against level 3 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 50.22% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 51.09% vs. Fort, 52.39% vs. Ref, and 55.87% vs. Will.

All-in-all, it looks like my hunch was right-on. This trend may not hold true against higher-level monsters, though. Maybe some other mathaholic can run the numbers for level 4+ creatures... :smalltongue:

Characters attacking AC can generally improve their odds by 10% by upping their relevant stat to 18 and picking a +3 proficiency weapon rather than the more-common +2 weapons. Characters attacking other defenses can generally improve their chances of hitting by only 5% by upping their relevant stat to 18.

Because of the associated point-buy costs, I didn't take into account characters willing to sacrifice the large number of points it'd take to score an ability score of 20 in the 4e system.

Given time constraints, etc., I only calculated odds for levels 1, 2, and 3 creatures (including minions, etc.); creatures likely to be encountered by brand-spanking new characters. All figures assume a 16 in relevant PC statistic and a +2 Proficiency bonus from weapon for vs. AC attacks. PC level was calculated as equal to monster level (so 2nd-level and higher PCs gain the +1 bonus to attacks from the +1/2 level mechanic).

Against level 1 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 54.33% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 57% vs. Fort, 52% vs. Ref, and 62% vs. Will.

Against level 2 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 55.56% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 58.06% vs. Fort, 56.39% vs. Ref, and 62.22% vs. Will.

Against level 3 monsters, PCs attacking AC had an average of a 50.22% chance of hitting a given monster. Percentages were 51.09% vs. Fort, 52.39% vs. Ref, and 55.87% vs. Will.

All-in-all, it looks like my hunch was right-on. This trend may not hold true against higher-level monsters, though. Maybe some other mathaholic can run the numbers for level 4+ creatures... :smalltongue:

Characters attacking AC can generally improve their odds by 10% by upping their relevant stat to 18 and picking a +3 proficiency weapon rather than the more-common +2 weapons. Characters attacking other defenses can generally improve their chances of hitting by only 5% by upping their relevant stat to 18.

Because of the associated point-buy costs, I didn't take into account characters willing to sacrifice the large number of points it'd take to score an ability score of 20 in the 4e system.