Shepard

2008-12-08, 05:45 PM

I've been thinking lately about whether or not the RCC can actually win the Battle for GK by numbers alone. Here's the setup as I see it:

We have 2 exact accounts of the numbers on both sides (albeit they are snapshots at certain points of time) as well as assessments by Wanda and Ansom as to the relative strength of the forces.

Here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0096.html) we see that the Coalition's forces consist of 9751 units as of this comic. Things have obviously changed since then. Charlescomm has backed out (-15 very strong units), and Vinny, Jillian, and some Gwiffons, bats, orlies, Unipegtaurs, etc, left to head off Stanley (- ~20-25, estimated between panel 2 here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0116.html) and panel 5 here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0104.html)). But most significantly, Parson's rout of the enemy attack in the tunnels has decreased the Coalition's forces by over 1000 (most of which are Jetstone forces in particular). Instead of that 9751, that number's more like 8710 now, if not lower.

From Parson's Klog #7 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0084.html) we see that the forces left in GK at that point of the comic number at about 754. Since then there have been some minor losses in the tunnels (assumed), but more importantly there's been a great swelling in the ranks by a little over 1000 uncroaked thanks to Wanda (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0128.html). This puts GK's number of troops up around 1754.

Now for the odds. Wanda says here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0020.html) that they are outnumbered 25-1 (though that's since mitigated by actual numbers we're shown and is probably therefore a bit of an exaggeration). Ansom claims here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0022.html) that the Coalition has 4 times the forces needed to take GK. Bearing in mind that these figures need to be taken with a grain of salt, lets do some calculations:

If the original size of the Coalition's forces (9751 + the 40% of their seige which they lost; for the sake of argument let's say it was around 16250 - 9751/0.6) was 4x stronger than actually necessary to take GK. That means that ~4063 units were needed to counter the threat posed by GK's 754. This essentially means that in order to take the city the ratio of their troops to GK's troops would need to be ~ 5.4.

Now take the new numbers. The Coalition's units attacking GK now number ~8710 and GK's number ~1754. If we take 8710/1754 we get a ratio of 4.97 - a number which is less than the ratio devised above which they seem to need in order to be able to take the city. Based on this analysis, it doesn't seem possible for the Coalition to conventionally take GK.

I realize that a lot of this hinges on supposition, as well as the relative strength of the units now making up both sides. As a result there's a a lot of room for interpretation as to how things could still go. I'm interested in what other people think of this break down of the numbers and their meaning.

Horray for my first post :)

We have 2 exact accounts of the numbers on both sides (albeit they are snapshots at certain points of time) as well as assessments by Wanda and Ansom as to the relative strength of the forces.

Here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0096.html) we see that the Coalition's forces consist of 9751 units as of this comic. Things have obviously changed since then. Charlescomm has backed out (-15 very strong units), and Vinny, Jillian, and some Gwiffons, bats, orlies, Unipegtaurs, etc, left to head off Stanley (- ~20-25, estimated between panel 2 here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0116.html) and panel 5 here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0104.html)). But most significantly, Parson's rout of the enemy attack in the tunnels has decreased the Coalition's forces by over 1000 (most of which are Jetstone forces in particular). Instead of that 9751, that number's more like 8710 now, if not lower.

From Parson's Klog #7 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0084.html) we see that the forces left in GK at that point of the comic number at about 754. Since then there have been some minor losses in the tunnels (assumed), but more importantly there's been a great swelling in the ranks by a little over 1000 uncroaked thanks to Wanda (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0128.html). This puts GK's number of troops up around 1754.

Now for the odds. Wanda says here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0020.html) that they are outnumbered 25-1 (though that's since mitigated by actual numbers we're shown and is probably therefore a bit of an exaggeration). Ansom claims here (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0022.html) that the Coalition has 4 times the forces needed to take GK. Bearing in mind that these figures need to be taken with a grain of salt, lets do some calculations:

If the original size of the Coalition's forces (9751 + the 40% of their seige which they lost; for the sake of argument let's say it was around 16250 - 9751/0.6) was 4x stronger than actually necessary to take GK. That means that ~4063 units were needed to counter the threat posed by GK's 754. This essentially means that in order to take the city the ratio of their troops to GK's troops would need to be ~ 5.4.

Now take the new numbers. The Coalition's units attacking GK now number ~8710 and GK's number ~1754. If we take 8710/1754 we get a ratio of 4.97 - a number which is less than the ratio devised above which they seem to need in order to be able to take the city. Based on this analysis, it doesn't seem possible for the Coalition to conventionally take GK.

I realize that a lot of this hinges on supposition, as well as the relative strength of the units now making up both sides. As a result there's a a lot of room for interpretation as to how things could still go. I'm interested in what other people think of this break down of the numbers and their meaning.

Horray for my first post :)