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from how i see it now, either Ramsus or Zanshin is lying =/
Sotek is the key here, I know for sure he isn't the priest.
This would mean either ramsus is lying, or byers was lying to the witches. I dont see why byers would lie to the witches though.
At the same time, I believed sotek to be the Spiritualist, if not, byers wouldnt have had made that wild claim, but Zanshin claims that CitizenFry was the spiritualist, which struck me odd.
So far these are the 2 things thats ringing my alarm atm.
^ on second thought on both scenario:
Sotek might really be the JW, and if thats the case, ramsus is the only witch remaining =/
At this point in time, Sotek can only be Spiritualist or JW, theres no other roles he could have been.
Sotek being the Spiritualist makes the most sense. Byers lying was meant to fool me (the Spy, not that he knew I was the spy). This would also explain how he knew the Spiritualist was dead and couldn't counter claim him.
I'm pretty sure Sotek couldn't have been the JW. He was drawing way too much attention to himself. The JW would want to lay low or at least only draw enough attention for a scry but not a NK. (And well...as the game is still going I'm also sure Sotek wasn't the JW for that reason too.)
for the time being no vote
but also, question.
I thought you managed to convince the witches that Orzel was the spy, why would byers lie anyway? wont it be detrimental to witches with false security making them think the priest is already dead when he isnt? not to mention, didnt any of the witches question him at all when murska said he scried byers to be scum? this doesnt add up O_o
I've been thinking... and I've come to something that finally has all the pieces together.
Let's say Murska was the Priest. Since he essentially claimed, it would be easy for ANYONE to claim Acolyte, assuming that they either hadn't claimed already or someone could point their claim false.
The Spy was revealed shortly thereafter, with all the witches in the coven dead. Except for the unknown Junior Witch.
The Medium didn't have enough information to determine if the Acolyte was dead or not. We can assume that they killed him in the night.
With the threat of the Werewolf, it was too risky for the Junior Witch to join the coven. Then, when we got down to so few people (with no word on the Traveller being dead or not, then), the Junior Witch holds off on the joining of the coven.
There are only two people I'm not entirely sure about.
Ramsus, the spy, is in the Coven. Once outed, the deception of an actual working coven needed to stop, to give us time to work with. He either could be a last witch buying time, or the actual spy. Because of some of his behavior, I'm looking at the other target.
Onime-no-Enishi, the Acolyte, has a poor claim now, now that the Priest is long dead, and was in the open for some time. A simple harmless role... that has devestating consenquences.
Onime-no-Enishi... I think you're the Junior, and last, Witch. You have until the deadline to change my mind, though.
were i accused of scum in an earlier stage, i wouldnt mind dying, but at this point in time, i would say this is a bad mistake.
If i was indeed the JW, who do you suppose is the acolyte? Sotek? he is the only dead person at the moment who has a wild-card role.
We dont know what role he is.
Theres nothing i can say or do to prove that i truly am the acolyte because, well, its really a very passive role, at this point, i might as well be the vamp hunter.
But all in all, this is just a game so i dont really care that much o.o;; so if you wanna lynch me, go ahead, just know that you win if you are JW and you lose if you are town.
The more i think about it, the more i believe the JW is already dead =/ if he isnt, we would not even be here scratching our heads trying to figure out whos the last remaining scum.
To answer your question about Byers lying. I believe I mentioned before that events in Witch chat were really chaotic. It's entirely possible he intended to reveal Sotek's actual role. Basically I'm only still alive because the Witches were panicking and not thinking clearly.
I'll admit Onime's claim is rather weak but there's still that post somewhere (too busy right now to go look for it) where Murska practically outs him as the Acolyte. Though that's just my interpretation of what Murska said. And I do still have no idea how Murska would know who the Acolyte was, especially that early. I'm going to think on this more before changing my vote.
Okay, i was going to do a full analysis post that will probably be TLDR, and It took me so much time to do it, and the fact that i gtg now, I cut the post down to just this. And with that said, in this post, ill post the only way I can prove myself to be the acolyte to the best of my abilities, being a role thats hard to prove isnt a blessing:
- Post #546 in Page 19:
I tried as much as I can to support any wagon Murska started, because I am confident at the very least, that he is indeed town. He is the priest after all. I tried not to follow his wagon too obviously, so in that post, i waited for someone else to give me a reason to follow a murska wagon so I can somewhat hide the fact that I am acolyte and that murska was priest (and at the same time, hope that the witches wont catch on; back then, i still had my fingers crossed hoping that the witches would have still believed that Murska was indeed the traveller, wishful thinking, but its worth a shot.
- Post #606 in Page 21
By this point, I was already convinced theres no point attempting to fool the witches, they were obviously hell-bent on taking Murska down (especially after he said that he scried byers). I just followed whatever wagon he started right away without question.
- Post #625 in Page 21
Is where I hope to solidify any faith town has for murska, but at the same time, I do not wish to just come out and say "I'm the Acolyte" for in case the JW or some future witch decided to fake claim, and also, as a 'risky fodder' for the werewolf in future.
- Posts #514 and #620 in [url="http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=183071&page=18"]Page 18[/page] and Page 21 respectively:
I was selected as Lovers with Crunchy English, the mod-confirmed Nun. At the start, I trusted Crunchy English to be who he said he was (Nun) at the beginning of the game, and so, I revealed my role to him as the Acolyte, and told him that the priest was Murska. With that said, Crunchy was also actively following the Murska bandwagon along with I.
- Posts #764 and #773 in Page 26:
In case everyone forgot, you can check and confirm that Crunchy and I admitted to be lovers.
I did most of the analysis, and drafted part of it, but yea =/ gtg, net died at home and I am at friend's place atm. Will just post a summary at work tomorrow.
woah typo above, just click here for page 18.
Summary of analysis, sorry, not gonna be posting links like i first intended, doing this at work, and you guys can just search the thread for proof anyway =p dont be lazy:
Primary Analysis:
Zanshin:
Claimed to be Medium.
- Had planted clues about being medium throughout the earlier stages of the game.
- Made some shocking revelations (Citizen Fry was the spiritualist!!!)
- Was trying to hint at us that hipen 3 was indeed the assassin right when day 2 began.
with the pointers above in mind, as much as the possibility of zanshin being JW is present, its overpowered by the fact that he has been consistent whole game. Early to late, he has been acting through with what he has told us.
The fact that he freaked out and went "We should all mass reveal! i think WW is dead" when citizenfry died, solidifies his claim that citizenfry is the spiritualist, if not, why else would he suddenly assume that Sotek may very well be the WW? Citizen Fry didnt react to byer's claims for some reason, but i think its because he figured byers would have died anyway, no use revealing your role over someone who will die.
With that said, i believe i can trust zanshin when he claimed medium.
Eternal Drifter:
Claimed to be Wizard.
- Havent been talking much in thread, but thats understandable considering the role claimed.
- Like mine, this role is very hard to prove.
- apparently, only I and him (unsure about zanshin) is aware of the No GA rule at 4 players and lower.
Under normal circumstances, by this time, ED would have been my no. 1 target to kill; Wizard is a rather safe claim, and it warrants him being quiet, but at the same time, its also a very good cover for a JW to hide behind.
However, JW that hasnt joined the coven doesnt have any much information, itd be a risky claim considering Medium is still up, and unless Sotek is the wizard, ED is telling the truth. Ramsus said byers claimed sotek to be Priest, and that there is no reason to hide the fact that he is the wizard, I strongly believe sotek is not the wizard, and if that is the case, ED is the wizard.
ED also being aware of the no GA rule would know to just end the game the night before by joining coven, saccing the spy and then killing one of us for game. But he didnt do that, so he cannot be the JW.
Ramsus:
Claimed to be Spy/Demon.
- Have been defending witches throughout the early stages of the game.
- Upon claiming to be spy, NKs ended and only NKed when town wanted to.
- did not remember or read about the no GA rule at 4 players and lower.
In the early stages of the game, Ramsus defended Hipen3 (identified assassin), byers (scryed scum), and horoar (obvious scum). Admittedly, being the spy, he may be doing that just to "act" witchy, and fool the witches, but im now wondering why the town didnt see it >>;
He claimed spy and gave info on dead witches and that he was the only witch remaining. Zanshin confirmed the roles of the witches that died during the day.
secondary analysis:
I will be frank, Zanshin has been consistent throughout the game, and I feel that he is the most trustworthy person at the moment.
Eternal Drifter is trustworthy as well, not only because he was consistent with an easy to follow claim, but because he had the chance to win the night before if he was JW but he didnt take it, ruling out that possibility.
And then down to Ramsus. He claimed orzel was the warlock and that he was sacced before he got the chance to defend himself. I will need clarification with this: I seriously doubt graymage would let it through he would wait til every action was made, which meant that orzel will have had time to defend himself, heck, night one took 46 hours. Orzel wouldnt have been AFK throughout the night, because if he is, night one would have taken 48 hours, not cut down to 46. Id say a long discussion was made, and all witches were CONFIDENT that orzel was the spy. And that is just assuming Orzel was part coven and not sotek, I can still visualize Sotek being spy and Orzel being the towny.
Which leads to the next inconsistency. If the story is true that Orzel was outed to be spy, the witches will only have sacced him in night 1, RIGHT AFTER a witch (Assassin at that) was lynched on day 1 itself, if they are at least 95% sure Orzel was the spy. There will be no more reason to hide information from one another. Why would byers lie about sotek being priest to the rest of the witches? this completely made no sense.
The other part that works against ramsus, is that he was continuously NKing even after he was the last witch remaining, he attempted to NK Mannikath (Why? hes the most productive towny we had at the time), and then NKed Crunchy English right before needing to claim spy and then the NK stopped.
If i were to speculate ramsus's role, it would be one of the 2:
Warlock (25%):
He forgot about GA rule and wanted us to lynch each other 1 more time for a sure victory. We can still win by lynching him twice.
Demon (75%):
He needed us to lynch each other 1 more time before he can nab victory. We win if we lynch him today.
Verdict:
Zanshin has been really consistent whole game, ED as well (but witchy), however, ED has proven himself in his actions the night before.
Ramsus for being the most inconsistent with what you say so far, and bringing up rather questionable cover stories.
Well Onime I'll have to say that just about everything you said there that wasn't about you or me was spot on. Looking back you're right about Zanshin's behavior. And I was already sure ED wasn't the JW because the JW would have already won.
You on the other hand claim, now, not at any time prior I point out, nor even acknowledged awareness of, to have know about the 4 people left = no GA protection rule. I'd say there's just as good a chance that you forgot about it as I did.
Looking over the posts you linked has drawn me to the certain conclusion you're not the Acolyte. You put effort in to show you were the Acolyte and that Murska was probably the Priest. That would be the last thing a real Acolyte would want to do. Voting along with him makes perfect sense as the JW. It establishes your "pro town" rep and might even have lead to him scrying you and you would have scried as town sided thus letting you "confirm" your role as Acolyte. As for how you knew Murska was the Priest at all. Well it wouldn't have been very hard to guess that with the way things were going. And getting the Nun to believe you were the Acolyte was a brilliant move. The Nun's word would be unquestionable and thus you would be marked as "clearly town".
All of your claims on my actions on the other hand are....well things I've already answered and reposted with a twist to make it seem bad. Yeah, I defended the witches early game. Was I supposed to just flat out be announcing I'm the Spy to them? And I just explained why I continued to NK up until I was forced to out myself. And the town did see my behavior, that's why I had to claim.
As for targeting Mannikath, it was obvious (to me at least) he was baiting the Witches. Also I, for most of the game, found him highly suspect. This meant he was likely the Traveler, going to be protected by the GA, possibly the JW like I suspected, or worst case the VH or such with the poor luck to not get protected. I took the calculated risk to maintain my appearance with no actual loss to town and it worked out.
As for Crunchy. I just mixed up his and Fry's names again. I'd already done that a couple times before in the thread I believe. (Believe me I was facepalming pretty hard the following day about that one.) So that's hardly inconsistent as you claim me to be.
I've already stated the state of panic going on with the Witches after Hipen's death. And that I decided to take advantage of that and start "looking for the Spy". It happened when it did because that's when I noticed the opportunity for it. I will very much agree I'd love for Gray Mage to confirm that Orzel didn't get a chance to defend himself. He made one statement before Gray Mage told him not to post in Witch chat because he'd already been sacced (in fact that was only his second post in that instance of Witch chat).
So you can claim I'm "inconsistent" but everything you pointed out is actually proof of my consistent behavior as the Spy. Outside of the blunder of NKing Crunchy I believe I did everything I should have been doing as the Spy.
I'd like to clarify that Orzel's one statement was followed directly by Gray Mage's statement about him being sacced and nobody even had a chance to change their vote off of him after seeing what he had to say in his defense.
Woah... I just came onto something... no vote until I can explain my thoughts.
Well if it's the theory that Gray Mage is secretly the JW then no need to worry there. During my not killing anyone nights I made sure to send in a NK on him just to be safe. :smalltongue:
If you were to look at the timing of my posts that showed "support" to murska (on byers), it was long before he even made it obvious he was priest. If i was JW, how would I know murska was priest?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsus
As for hiding the fact that murska was priest, i attempted to do that during day 2, he was already on to byers, Crunchy still supported murska then, but I decided to try to hide it by going for the next person that seemed witchy (Qwaz at the time), i always still had byers to target next in my mind.
I wasnt very obvious in hiding the moment the witches targetted Murska and he survived due to luck that Qwaz was the BoD, that was when my alarm triggered that murska would be outed early and I was hoping to try bury his role (but thanks to his own post, he kinda blurted out he isnt traveller).
Zanshin and ED, both of you can re-read the entire thread if you wish (like i did) focusing on posts by sotek, myself, yourself, ramsus and each other. Also read posts by citizen, byers and mannikath.
I am very sure you will all chalk down the same conclusion as I did.
I would also like to add that if ramsus claims that i am lying and that he is telling the truth, then ramsus is claiming that Sotek was the priest, and what is murska? the acolyte? I seriously find that very highly unlikely. Its either that, or sotek was the acolyte, but Byers for some reason decided to lie to the witches (after being confident the spy was dead), that sotek (the acolyte) was the priest.
The logic still does not add up.
I was under the assumption everyone already had re-read the entire post. Figured that's why we had the no voting period.
Btw, nice blatant appeal "vote for me" style on that second to last paragraph.
I'll have to point out we still don't know Murska was the priest. For all I know Byers might have been telling the truth (I find it someone unlikely of course but possible). Zanshin can't tell us either Murska or Sotek's role. We only have your word for it that Murska was the priest. And we've been making an awful lot of decisions based on that assumption. While unlikely it is possible he wasn't the priest (thus why he drew so much attention to himself) and just lucked out on Byers being a Witch.
So yeah, basically our only "proof" you aren't lying about being the Acolyte is your own statement regarding Murska's role.
I would also like to add, a JW wouldnt waste his time pointing at the "spy" >>; he can just kill the spy at night with a sac and kill 1 towny at the same time. I dont see any reason why a JW would want town to lynch a spy which he can so easily kill.
About the murska 'assumption'. I'm pretty sure "lucking out" really isn't a good enough reason to reliably trust. He ratted out two witches, 1 due to scrying the other due to connection. He wouldnt have been so gung-ho about it, if he wasnt sure, at the same time, the witches wouldn't be so gung-ho about getting rid of him.
But I will not have to feed information like this anymore, not like my words are "trustworthy" at the moment as I am being tested, however, I trust ED and zanshin to go back and read through at least the first 5 days of this thread and they can chalk up their own conclusion.
This is the conclusion I came to.
Honestly, I don't know Murska well enough to claim he wouldn't act "sure" about someone he felt he was sure was a Witch. And faking being the Priest is a very good pro-town tactic that is reasonable to believe he might want to pull off.
I'd like to point out that just minutes ago you were questioning why Byers would lie. Now you're arguments only work if he was lying. That seems to be bending that issue both ways to suit your arguments.
As for why the JW would point at me, that's fairly silly. After you know we all looked over the whole thread it's a lot harder to see Zanshin or ED being the JW. That basically only leaves you with the option of me. It's not that the JW finds some advantage in killing the Spy, I'm simply the easiest target for you.
The below was written as other posts were, new thoughts incorperated into one post with few alterations:
I'm at the verge of whaming my head against my desk. Just when I had a solid theory, the person I was targeting has gone through the thread and brought up enough evidence to suffecientally put Ramsus in a corner.
And something else was pointed out: after the last witch before Ramsus was killed, he kept on killing until he finally confessed to spy under pressure. True, his word seemed good at the time, hoping to lure the Junior Witch out and reveal afterwards...
But I now sense something... a pattern...
My first game, I claimed spy, with no pressure, and claimed that there was yet no sign of the Junior Witch (who was killed DAY 1).
My second game, Tydude claimed spy under pressure, with his DOB cover blown by the real DOB going off the previous night. He also claimed that the Junior Witch was still out there, with no idea if she was killed. A scry from the Priest popped that theory.
And now, my third game, an outed 'spy' claims that he was simply waiting for the Junior Witch to show up, trying to keep up the appearance of a coven. But WAS he... what if, in fact, he is the last witch? A witch claiming spy is no longer a surprise to me.
Up until Ramsus's next posts, I was intending on switching to vote for him. But he has accurately deflected all of the Acolyte's attempts to paint him in a corner.
He even turned the arguement back at Onime, putting attention onto him.
And so that is why Gray Mage was attacked during the night... much like my 'scries' last game...
This... this is out of my hands...
And it did not help that the pair of you kept posting quickly while I was writing this out.
I think... I have found the Junior Witch... but I want a second, and final opinion of one who is NOT going to be lynched at all today. Zanshin.
I much prefer his gut to mine.
I grow weary of this hunt. Let's end this, for better or for worse.
Onime-no-Enishi at deadline unless Zanshin speaks up before then. If that is the case, I will follow Zanshin's lead.
Actually... I now feel more confident in my choice.
Onime-no-Enishi, I think you are, in fact the Junior Witch.
I hear some noise from above, but I'm not sure what it is...
Nonetheless, this is my decision. I am going with what I think is right.
A normal, non-deadline vote on Onime-no-Enishi.
Indeed, im questioning why he would lie, because im pretty sure he IS lying, because im the acolyte. Either he is lying, or you are lying about his information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsus
Take notice that ramsus pointed at zanshin when zanshin pointed at him, then now at me, when i point at him. The witch doesnt care which one of us dies today, because he will just NK the other and win tonight. At the same time, if I was JW, we wont have a day today, I would have won.
Think about it for a moment. You think the JW would just sit by and do nothing at all in a situation where theres only 1 spy and 2 townies?
Even if, say, the JW forgot about the GA bit. Lets look at statistics:
JW, Towny, Towny, Spy.
Here is his possible action the night before:
A) Join Coven, sac spy, NK towny.
OR
B) stay, try to lynch one more person, join coven, sac spy (if not lynched), NK towny.
OR
C) Stay, try to lynch spy, join coven, NK towny.
Out of the 3 actions, i do not even see why the JW wants to go the long roundabout way. Look at it this way:
Let us ASSUME the JW does forget about the GA thing, and he included GA protection in his calculations.
Action A: GAs have 3 targets to protect (other than spy), himself, or the other 2 townies.
There is a 33.33% chance for each towny to be protected, thus, if he takes action A and sacs the spy, theres a 66.67% chance for victory.
Action B: by the time he stayed 1 day to lynch an extra person (that is towny), GA's dont matter, he would just lynch a towny, sac the spy the next night and win the game. Assuming he is sure to get rid of the wizard. <== this plan is TOO risky, unless the JW knows for sure he can kill the wizard off.
Action C: by the time he stayed 1 day to lynch an extra person (that is the spy), this just reverts back to action A, except, its the very next night, AND it makes the JW vulnerable to lynch for 1 extra day, when he could have just done so the night before.
^^ That is the scenarios that could have happened, if the JW is alive, and forgot about the GA rule (as ramsus is claiming).
Thus, as I said, If i was JW, the game would have ended. Heck, if anyone of us was JW, the game would have ended.
Also, I have yet to see your "counter arguments" to my claims of your story being questionable. >>; it wasn't mentioned before in the thread before this.
and i quote ramsus:
My proof was that both I and crunchy has been supporting murska (though I try not to be too obvious) even BEFORE he it was obvious he was priest.Quote:
So yeah, basically our only "proof" you aren't lying about being the Acolyte is your own statement regarding Murska's role.
O_o seriously, if I was JW, I wouldnt waste time postponing a day to lynch the 'spy' so that i can NK someone the next night, making myself vulnerable for 1 day, when I could have just convert, Sac AND NK all in 1 night, ending the game before i become vulnerable again.
woah i cannot believe i missed this one, heres your original Post #908 in Page 31Quote:
As for Crunchy. I just mixed up his and Fry's names again. I'd already done that a couple times before in the thread I believe. (Believe me I was facepalming pretty hard the following day about that one.) So that's hardly inconsistent as you claim me to be.
yet another inconsistency. You claim now that you mistook crunchy for fry, but back then, you claimed that you did it to deprive the WW food? O_o Not like its a bad move for a spy anyway. But this just adds up to the inconsistency of your claims.
There is also this, which is just on the same page.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsus
First priest, now spiritualist. And this does not make sense considering the witches were all already convinced they had the spy down, why lie to a coven full of witches?
Ramsus is obviously trying to hide sotek's (and orzel's) true role from us. This slip up alone is enough for me to find him suspicious.
original post #908 yet again, for reference of his first post when he said byers claimed sotek was priest.
gah, meant to click preview post and clicked submit reply by accident.
I was going to say:
when you said that, it was CLEAR you are saying sotek is spiritualist as opposed to your later claim that "oops i meant priest".Quote:
Sotek being the Spiritualist makes the most sense. Byers lying was meant to fool me (the Spy, not that he knew I was the spy). This would also explain how he knew the Spiritualist was dead and couldn't counter claim him.
and so, if you say sotek is the spiritualist, you are also saying zanshin is lying when he said fry was the spiritualist. Shouldnt you be pointing at him instead of me? Your actions do not follow your words.
and to my horror, i realized i had too many quoted tabs opened and used the wrong quote -_-
i meant to use this post #1154, in Page 39
quoted:
This was where you originally slipped up to "spiritualist" by accident instead of "priest".Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsus
And I dont really think claiming "spy" was a dangerous claim for you. during that situation, anything other than "spy" would have gotten you lynched, if not just to give medium information.
I'm not sure I should even respond to this last series of posts. You seem to just be digging a hole for yourself. But there are at least a couple things which I feel I should respond to.
So, what I said about Crunchy at the time I NKed him. So, in my position would you have just said "oops" at that time? That would have gotten me lynched. It provided the benefit of denying the WW food sure and that's what I went with as my reasoning. I could have just not admitted my mistake earlier sure but as you pointed out it wasn't a great reason for NKing him and I really didn't want that perceived flaw in my reasoning to cost town the game if ED or Zanshin felt that that "proved" I was a Witch.
I don't think I need to even argue with your "the JW would have done this" as I can't know what you were thinking or what your plan was. For all I know this was your plan.
And the fact that I pointed at Zanshin after he pointed and me then you after you pointed at me. You can try and make that look like I'd just point at anyone if you like. But the fact is that at the time I thought Zanshin was the most likely suspect and I stated why. Then we took the time to examine the facts and I concluded that you were. Yes, I waited for someone else to post first because I wanted to see what others had to say before I jumped forward with my conclusions and possibly led us down the wrong path if I'd missed something really crucial. I would have waited for ED and Zanshin to respond but felt that things you said bore responding to and incriminated yourself.