After night 1, and the baner was lynched...
Murska (Wolf - self-incrimination) -
Accuses Happy of being a wolf. - Note: He introduces information nobody has. Information that nobody could use to connect him or happy to NS's night killing... Until now. Ask yourself... Why?
Happyturtle (Fool by admission, identity unconfirmed) -
Counter-accusation, based on more new information that nobody had. Obviously, an attempt to get people to not lynch her. Why? Well, the above statement hasn't yet been corroborated yet, so it'd be murska trying to persuade others at this point.
Post 49 is another accusation by Murska, no corroborating evidence.
Post 51 is the first of the chat logs (last half of the conversation).
Post 53, Murska's counter, shows a bit more, but is ultimately inconclusive.
Now from this, we know that the two of these people are claiming to know that NS wasn't a random lucky kill.
This is news to everyone.
What does that mean? If they had not revealed this, nobody would have known. There are a couple possibilities. The first, as you suggest, is that it's an intricate plan designed to get murska killed (1 wolf), and payoff one trusted role with the masons. Couple problems with this:
1) risky. Very risky. Wolves have the advantage, with baner dying. They've no need to be risky.
2) Happy already listed herself as expendable, and possessing no useful information (announcing herself as the fool). This means that even if the Masons DO trust her, they've no reason to contact her. She has no useful information. So plan fails, even if Happy's trusted.
The second? Murska was afraid that Happy would out him, and beat her to the punch. This line of thinking puts happy and murska at odds, which suggests that happy is not a wolf.
So we have enough information to clear either happy OR murska, at this point, and since neither claim useful information, to leave them both out of the loop. However, which one? Well, the jury's already leaning towards Murska, so that looks like the test subject. If murska's a wolf, chances are, happy's not.
But let's continue.
Post 59 doesn't disprove your theory, though it's pretty unlikely already.
And here's the theory that started this.
1) All this has done is raise suspicion on both of them. How on EARTH would anyone trust them after this?
2) Even if they do, WHY would they feed information to a Villager or a Fool?
3) Knowing this, why would a wolf take such a risk, based only on the hope that the villagers betray their ranks? Scratch that. Why would TWO wolves take that risk? That's what? 25% of the wolves? More?
I state my misgivings with your argument in 69 and 71, and Tired joins in on 70.
Your counter?
Post 72. If one gets lynched the other gets cleared of all charges and is free to be a wolf in the henhouse. But what you don't mention is that it's charges that WOULDN'T EVEN EXIST were it not for the two of them leveling them against each other.
Then Eagle actively threatens my lynch (74). This is the first post I mistook for you, in my more recent letter. Apologies on that.
In 75, I welcome the lynching, if they're both bad. So now, if you believe I'm a wolf, that's 3 in the pot. But Eagle's entire issue is my defense of Happy... If she's not a wolf, his entire argument crumbles, and it's ONE wolf, who happens to be very good at playing the manipulation angle. Murska.
Then in 76, Murska admits Wolf status. This seals his doom. He's gonna be lynched.
We have an option.
1) Lynch Happy next, followed by me, if Happy's a wolf.
2) Leave her alive for now. If she's a fool/seer as she claims, the wolves will get her soon enough. If not, she'll give herself away, and we can lynch her later.
I favor the second option. It goes without saying that we should leave her out of the loop, but that loop's not mine to make the choice in. Anyone that doesn't have useful information should never be privy to the inner circle. And if she's the fool, she doesn't have useful information.
So the compromise is: Don't trust her, but don't lynch her... yet. If she is the fool, then the REAL seer can verify that with a scry. Long as she doesn't show up as a villager, she can't be the Alpha. If she shows up as a wolf/villager, then she lied about seer/fool status. Lynch her then.
In this way, if your theory is correct, the wolf plan was foiled. Nobody's on the inner circle. If mine is, then no Good Guy gets lynched.