Printable View
Which is the entire point of 'mathhammering'. If I can pick from two weapons, one of which has a 1/3 chance of wounding and the other has a 2/3 chance of wounding against my most common enemy, I'm going to pick the one with a higher success percentage. If my unit of 30 Ork Boyz can charge a Blender Dreadnaught or a squad of infantry, I'm going to send them after the one who's guaranteed to be unable to wipe out my unit before I attack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricky S
Actualy it does, you just have to understand what it does, and that is to tell you the most likely outcome of a situation.Quote:
In short; Math Hammer is handy. But it doesn't work. Not in the real world. Don't pretend that it does. Lies. Damn Lies. Statistics.
As the glyphstone said, its most usefull when comparing different units or weapons, and allows you to find the best pick.
Personaly i used it on the heavy weapon selection in my guardian units, and were surprised over how much better Scatter lasers were at shutting SM light transport down.
But you don't need Math-hammer for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord_khaine
Unless "Strength 5 is greater than Strength 4." counts as Math-Hammer?
It might be more complex than that- high str + low WS vs low str + high WS, varying number of attacks, and so on.
Mathhammer provides answers to questions like "Do I have a 50+% chance of destroying this unit with that unit?"
I think Glyphstone has it right. you're dealing with dice; nothing is certain. I once played a 2000 point 3 round tournament where my list had 8 lascannons. total kill points for the ENTIRE TOURNAMENT: 1. It was a trukk.
however, that shouldn't prevent you from looking at a basic chance difference and trying to use the probabilities in your favor.
And followup questions like 'If I do have a 50+% chance of destroying them, but roll badly and fail, what are the % odds that they, and the unit waiting next to them for a countercharge, will destroy me before I can retaliate and/or commit my own second wave? Will I have a better chance of overall success by sending those reserves to another fight and letting this unit fend for itself?Quote:
Originally Posted by hamishspence
In the grim statistics of the far future, there is only math.
But Glyphstone didn't say that...Quote:
Originally Posted by Provengreil
But even that doesn't work. Unless you do it in your head, at the table, and manage to be so good at it your opponent doesn't call you out for stalling. Because your opponent also gets to play the game too and wont always play to your way.Quote:
Originally Posted by hamishspence
My Khorne Berzerkers can absolutely wreck a Tactical Squad, but, if that Tactical Squad just keeps moving backwards out of charge range, or mounts up and drives away, Khorne Berzerkers can't do anything.
The game doesn't work like Math-Hammer says it should. It makes people fall into a false sense of security thinking something will happen, then you find out the dice hate you and you roll trip-1s.
Dice are random number generator cubes. Deal with it.
Mathhammer is a tool for evaluating things. No, you shouldn't swear by it, by any means. But it is useful for, say, evaluating the merits of thunder hammers vs. lightning claws.
Part of the problem too is that we're relying on what is the "most" probable result, even if wildly different results (like the dreadnaught example) are almost as probable. If we used, say, a bell curve, you'd probably get a more realistic answer to the question.
And, at the end of the day, you need to remember that mathhammer only really shows up after 10-15 games.
Also, statistical analysis is a way to ward off boredom.
dice are like cards- random- and the best card players learn to estimate the probability of the card they need coming up, or the probability of the other guy having a better hand.
Same principles can apply to gaming.
Wrong. Cards are not random. But picking one card out of the deck, you drastically reduce your chances of drawing that card again (in fact, all the way down to 0%). If you have the Ace of Diamonds, you know for a fact, that the other guy doesn't have it. Counting Cards is a thing. Because cards are not random.Quote:
Originally Posted by hamishspence
Dice, are dice. You roll a 1 once, you can roll it again, and again, again. Three times in a row. You can't 'count dice'.
Completely true. What you could use it for, however, is risk evaluation within playing. If you can evaluate which units in an army pose the greatest threat to yours, you can play around it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesegear
Plus, like I said, some people have too much time on their hands, and mathhammer is a minor brainteaser that can be fun.
In the sense that (having eliminated the cards you already have from consideration) the probability that the next card you draw is the one you want, can be estimated, it works on a similar principle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesegear
Being able to estimate statistics is useful in both cases.
But it isn't random. If I can say with certainty that the next card I draw will not be the one already in my hand, then it isn't random, because I know what's in the deck. If I take 51 cards out of the deck, I know, exactly what the 52nd card is going to be.Quote:
Originally Posted by hamishspence
n=1/52, n=1/51, n=1/50. The more cards you draw, the more certain the odds become, and thus, less random.
If I roll a dice 51 times, I can't guarantee at all what the next roll is going to be. I can roll a dice 900 times, in five sets, and the results aren't going to be the same.
Hell, Two-Up, one of the easiest gambling game in the world, is still 100% random. And you only have two numbers to choose from!
Gambler theory is fun.
The point being that if knowledge of statistics is useful in cards, it can be useful in dice as well.
Debating the definition of the word "random" can be fun, but it gets away from the thrust of the argument.
Mathhammer doesn't work, but it is the best we got. And when you play it you need to use it to some degree. Most decisions you make in warhammer will propperbly be based around mathhammer, becourse people rarely win by taking what can potentially give the best result, they go after what has the best chance of doing so (otherwise everybody would use fleshborer hives,punishers,chaptermasters and so on).
Can i sig it?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Glyphstone
Cheerfully.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ninjaman
Now, how's this for a small Newcron list?
Spoiler
Necron Phaeron w/ Resurrection Orb, Warscythe = 140 pts
-Harbinger of Despair w/ Veil of Darkness = 60 pts
Vanguard Obyron = 160 pts
Necron Immortals x10 = 170 pts
-Tesla Carbines
Necron Immortals x10 = 170 Pts
-Tesla Carbines
Necron Warriors x14 = 182 pts
-Night Scythe = 100 pts
992 points total.
The idea is for ridiculous mobility, in the sense of 'being able to relocate from one end of the battlefield to the other in a turn' and concentration of force against vulnerable targets. Obryon joins one Immortals unit, the Harbinger joins the other, providing two units that can Deep Strike themselves into position every turn and shoot from 24' out. The Warrior block can do the same with their attached Phaeron, and the Night Scythe lets them pile in and bumrush 36" away from danger, or move 12", pile out, and still shoot at 24". It's rather weak against vehicles, but will lay out unholy pain against anything that's primarily infantry-based (The majority of my local metagame)
You don't have to be all that good at it, you just have to practice some. The numbers are pretty straight forward and you see a lot of the same ones all the time, you just have to recognize it. I can generally mathhammer out a combat while the opponent is counting out attacks and dice and rolling them. I generally do it during their turn to know what I'm going to do during mine, at least in cases where there is a few choices, often I set up situations ahead of time where there aren't really choices.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesegear
I do it for "fun" a lot of the time too. And its not too surprising that often the numbers that comes up and the numbers I calculated are very close. When you start actually doing it all the time and paying attention to it you see how well it does work. Everyone remembers the time they rolled 4 1 or 4 6s in a row and did the unexpected and completely forget the 100 other combats that was pretty much exactly as expected.
I'll just point out that the examples listed are not bad because of Math-Hammer. They are bad because there are other things in the army to it instead. Especially when it comes to Fleshborers coming at the cost of Rupture Cannons.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ninjaman
Punishers, likewise, come at the cost of other, better tanks. Not because of Maths. But because of the simple fact that they can't deal with opposing vehicles (unless Math-Hammer is "I have 0% chance to penetrate AV12+ with S5"?). Wheras other tanks can simultaneously bring arms to beat both vehicles and infantry. And AP- sucks - and you don't need Math-Hammer to see that one.
Chapter Masters...The points cost is written on the page for little difference. Math-Hammer not required. You could probably play-test it once, and then never use it again. But you wouldn't need Math-Hammer to know why you're not using one anymore.
...Haven't we survived like...Four whole threads without adiscussionargument on statistics? Ah well...Streak ruined. ...Now why am I so sad about that...
Mid-game mathhammer is useless and annoying. Metagame mathhammer makes you less sexy and list building mathhammer is viable but redundant.
Blame the blendernought. It is the cause of all this disruption. :smalltongue:Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesegear
Punishers are bad, but they're also fun. That's why I have one, for nothing short of gleefully being able to roll 26 BS4 shots from a single model (I always buy Pask for it when I can).
Sure you do, when you need to figure out at what point a lot of shots at S6 is going to be better than a singel one at S8.Quote:
But you don't need Math-hammer for that.
Unless "Strength 5 is greater than Strength 4." counts as Math-Hammer?
You could say he's chaotic ?.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricky S
Anyways, I though I'd share this. Since I'm really new at the game, seeing how games are played is a huge insight of how the basics of the rules work, and it's kinda entertaining to see a group of plasma tanks beating the the crap out of blood angels :smallyuk:.
Spoiler
Also, things I've learned:
1.- IG move like there's no tomorrow
2.- IG are squishy, I guess this is why you need lots of them
3.- It is not weird to pep-talk to your minis.
Oh that one's easy. absent armor 13/14, always.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord_khaine
/Has missed way too often with missile launchers
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Glyphstone
Grey Hunters need meltas and flamers all round, Grey Hunters are built for assault, they just use the bolters on the way in.Quote:
Originally Posted by IthilanorStPete
DM
Which would be true if they didn't have Counter-Assault special rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by Darius Macab
Darius Macab, you were asking why Ithilanor's drop pods don't have wolf guard. Well, the Wolves have economy drop pods that hold ten models, not twelve.
Which has a decidedly non-zero chance of derping out on you right when you need it. Charging both guarantees that you get the extra attack, and prevents the opponent from getting any goodies like Furious Charge. Plus, there's some debate about whether or not the Wolf Standard has to be activated in the shooting phase. If your opponent's being anal, charging guarantees that the Standard won't go to waste. Lastly, it's nice to occasionally use those Bolt Pistols for something other than the bonus attack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trixie
EDIT: Darius, Space Wolf Terminators most certainly can ride in Drop Pods--otherwise, they wouldn't be able to Deep Strike at all.
Not at all dear chap, it's just that I can honestly say that I must beat the average a lot because it is a rare day when I don't do a lot better than your figures suggest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ninjaman
And as for my derision of stats, it's not derision of the idea itself, it's bemused nonacceptance of the belief that everything can be predicted by them. Anyway, moving on.