Originally Posted by Aeryr
The bluff penalty to "almost too incredible to consider." is -20 (drops the check to 4) so unless the opposition has ranks in sense motive and a decent wisdom its going to outright believe your bluff in a roll of 1.
If the opponent has no Sense Motive ranks and 10 Wisdom, they will still disbelieve a Bluff check of 4 80% of the time.
Also, for Rogues missing with attacks - why not just finagle some touch attacks to hit with? A simple 1-level dip into Pyrokineticist gives you both the means of making easy hits, and the reach to avoid some enemy counterattacks.