While I don't disagree with the notion that experience and skill can only get you so far, my theory regarding Ichigo is more along the lines of "he's the series' main character and has so much deus ex machina going for him that it's not funny". See the Ulquiorra fight for what I mean.
I DO like the notion that "not knowing something is impossible makes you more likely to succeed" as a storytelling basis, but predictions on any kind of confrontation are a mixed bag. There are WAY more than three factors that decide a battle. Ultimately, I find that in a battle of two opponents of equal skill, the one who wins is the one who screws up the least, because the other is most likely to capitalize on your mistake if he can. War's mistake so far has been to not fight seriously from the beginning, and it's yielded him more than its share of unnecessary wounds for his trouble.
I like that Lalita is fighting intelligently and having his Big Damn Awesome moment, but methinks he doth underestimate the Horse a little too much, especially considering the wounds he has so far. These guys are supposed to be the stuff of legends and ridiculously hard to tame, yet Lalita is acting like War is a speedbump (which is why War has taken this long to take the Arrancar seriously, and why even if he wins, in the current state of things, War is unlikely to accept him as its Rider).