Tons of information under here, so be careful you don't spoil yourself anyway!
Originally Posted by Selpharia
Civil war is mostly based on your choices. Resolving the Ixionite situation to lord Smugington's satisfaction is a good start, and having good conversation skills at the ball is also an easy boost. Setting your agents to watch for noble plots can stop civil war, but makes it much harder to achieve naval victory. The biggest point I know where you can affect things is the issue with young Lord Adair. Sending him to his grandfather's will really annoy Arisse, and likely trigger civil war. Sending him to her is actually a good option for avoiding civil war, but if you've already upset her too much it will make the war harder to win. If you train up divination enough for the owl omen you can get an extra choice that has no downsides, and also helps net you a checklist item.