Erfworld #137 - The Discussion Thread

[Nargrakhan]

Parson has been winning.

QFT.

Victory in this case does not mean Parson is mopping up Ansom's butt on the floor. Victory is that Parson has SURVIVED against impossible odds so far. Parson has been given the losing end of the stick, with forces withholding information and units (i.e. Stanley's group), yet he's still managed to delay the inevitable. Parson has been fighting his own side, just as hard as he's been fighting his enemy. Were the positions changed, with Parson holding the overwhelming superiority, then I'm sure Ansom would be a zombie by now.

Fact of the matter is: Parson is doing a damn well job of keeping the fulcrum of the battle on his of the table, even with the tremendous setbacks he's been thrown with.

Now he's going for the classic "demoralizing losses" against Ansom, that even the mightiest armies find terrifying: make the notion of victory so costly or horrific for the invader, they can no long achieve victory. Just ask the Soviets or Americans. How he pulls off that is not so clear, but I don't have doubt it can be done. As we all know: worst enemy to fight is the one with their backs against the wall.

What I'm hoping is that Ansom doesn't have a "deus ex machina" tactic or superweapon. Not be cause I'm against Ansom winning, but just that it will be anticlimactic IMHO. Cliché? Maybe. But it worked for the Americans in WW2 against Japan.


***EDIT***
On a side note: I think the biggest factor that makes Erfworld so different from Earth, is the lack of civilians. Everyone seen so far, is a combatant. IRL you get tons of innocent deaths. Even before war got "all civilized" (and I use the term lightly) since the advent of mass media to show other's suffering, many armies got demoralized in seeing bystanders getting slaughtered. Naturally there's tons of rape and pillage, but there's just an equal amount of mercy and negotiations to avoid unnecessary deaths. Not every invading force intend genocide... and Ansom doesn't strike me as someone with "barbaric intentions" of mass slaughter.

[Hatu]

Um, what? Ansom has been every bit as adaptable as Parson. To name just a few:

His original plan was to feint the tunnels and use his siege to take the walls. Parson ruined this, and Ansom was forced to reverse strategies. Then Parson crushed him in the tunnels, and he was forced to shift his focus to the walls again. Then, after he'd clearly decided not to accept Charlie's offer, Parson forced him to accept an even worse version of it just to save his own miserable skin.

But Ansom never really changed his plans, did he? As you say, Ansom's original plan was to encircle GK, feint through the tunnels, then breach the wall at its weakest point and methodically crush Stanley's forces. Other than encircling GK, how has that changed?

When Parson attacked a bunch of his siege, Ansom countered by trying to wipe out Parson's Warlords (thereby saving his siege). Parson planned for that, but when Ansom fell into the trap he escaped by ... wiping out Parson's Warlords (thereby saving his siege).

Similarly, when he finally reached GK, Stanley began encircling it and used the tunnels as a diversion. Parson planned for that and crushed the force in the tunnels and massively bolstered his walls. Ansom responds by creating the weak point he was looking for himself, breaching the walls and methodically crushing Stanley's forces.

Yes, Ansom did have to come up with something to counter Parson's moves. But both times we've seen Ansom simply counter the moves rather than adjust his original plan. And both times the the first thing Ansom tries works and his original plan is right back on track.

Parson has been winning. That's the point of his whole rant here. He just hasn't been winning enough, not yet. But he's put a huge amount of pressure on Ansom, forced him to abandon his strategy several times, and drastically shifted the odds from the absolute curb-stomping they were at the beginning. People keep saying that Ansom is saved by deus ex mechanica -- no. Ansom manages to avoid being utterly crushed by revising his plans and relying on Charlie, yes, but the real thing that's been saving his ass so far is the 25-to-1 margin.

See, I can't agree that Parson has done anything close to winning. He has managed to have some good turns, but when any gains he makes on his turn are wiped out (or worse) on the following turn, it's hard to claim he won much of anything. With the route of the zombies, Parson hasn't even managed to inflict particularly lopsided casualties thus far, because Ansom inflicted lopsided casualties right back at him.

You say Parson has managed to avoid being utterly crushed thus far, but that's sort of the default state: Parson or no Parson, Ansom wasn't planning to assault GK before this turn anyway. On page 21 Ansom laid out his plans, saying it would take 5 days for the last of his forces to reach GK. Now, 5 days later, he's breached the city. Parson could have been playing pinochle with Stanley's Crap Golems all this time and he would not have been utterly crushed yet either.

So no, Parson has not been winning. Thus far he has changed the style of the battles, but Ansom's plan is actually still intact and functioning. Exactly the way Parson's excellent monologue assures us is unrealistic. :-(

-H

[SteveD]

Speaking of odds, anyone want to gestimate what they are now that Ansom has lost 3000 troops and Parson has gained them?

[Nargrakhan]

So no, Parson has not been winning. Thus far he has changed the style of the battles, but Ansom's plan is actually still intact and functioning. Exactly the way Parson's excellent monologue assures us is unrealistic.

Only with Ansom taking incredible losses in a battle that was expected to be a cakewalk. No one imagined Jetstone's forces being slaughtered like they were. Ansom took a MAJOR hit. It's like if an entire division of American forces in Iraq were suddenly destroyed in a single day. Would it mean the end of the American military? Hell no: there's more where that came from. But it doesn't mean – not by a long shot – that the invading force is in control.

Ansom's victory is not assured. That is Parson's victory.

[mroozee]

See, I can't agree that Parson has done anything close to winning. He has managed to have some good turns, but when any gains he makes on his turn are wiped out (or worse) on the following turn, it's hard to claim he won much of anything. With the route of the zombies, Parson hasn't even managed to inflict particularly lopsided casualties thus far, because Ansom inflicted lopsided casualties right back at him.

Where did those zombies come from again?

Parson has made significant gains towards ending this destructive conflict while keeping himself and Goblin Knob intact. Stanley was facing 25-1 odds and he would've fled (as he did) as soon as things got rough leaving Gobwin Knob to his attackers. Parson has cost Jetstone the troops in the tunnels and an unconscionable deal with Charlie - not to mention 40% of his siege and some trust from his allies. Ansom has held together so far, but an unexpected flight of dragons (Parson's instructions to Jack) will change the balance sheet.

If he's shifted the odds from 99.9% certain doom to a 50-50 chance of survival, he's accomplished quite a bit. Add in the extra costs incurred by his enemies and he has been more than worth the price Stanley paid. Sometimes, "winning" can be nothing more than making yourself too expensive to get rid of... that's where I see Parson.

[Iain]

Parson did use "WTB" once, presumably instead of "WTF."

Was that him saying it, though, rather than a sound effect? His speech is censored, I'm just not sure that the abbreviated real-world-reference sound effects are.
(I'm too lazy to look this up just now, so I don't really expect you to! I'm just musing.)

[DevilDan]

Frankly, I find it boring to argue whether Ansom has adapted enough or not enough or whatever. It's just pointless to me. That said, Parson had no real reason to change his fork strategy of hitting the tunnels and surrounding the walls. For one, he didn't know that Parson was expecting it because he didn't know that Jillian had revealed his entire battle plan. And he lacked the imagination to think that Parson would counterattack after completely giving up the tunnels with barely a fight. He was gulled.

Like the Incas or the Aztecs facing the Cortez or Pizarro, Ansom lacks the experience and sophistication to match Parson's preparation even on the Prince's own playing field.

[Hatu]

If he's shifted the odds from 99.9% certain doom to a 50-50 chance of survival, he's accomplished quite a bit. Add in the extra costs incurred by his enemies and he has been more than worth the price Stanley paid. Sometimes, "winning" can be nothing more than making yourself too expensive to get rid of... that's where I see Parson.

I really don't think the damage Parson has inflicted is anywhere near as decisive as people are claiming. Yes, Parson killed and animated a bunch of Jetstone troops. But he's also lost almost all of his dwagons, 60% of his Warlords, and convinced the RCC to add a lot of Archons to their forces.

Is that really a major change in the balance of power? Maybe, but it's certainly not a given. A well entrenched force is assumed to be able to inflict lopsided casualties on anyone attacking them, so in order for Parson to outperform the Leading Brand Warlord(tm), he has to do more than just croak a bunch of people. I'd say it's possible that Parson is in a worse position relative to his opponent than he was on Day 0.

That's not to say that Parson is a failure as a Warlord. But I do think it's a stretch to claim that Parson is winning simply because he isn't dead and has croaked a bunch of RCC troops. Parson had a 0% chance of being croaked before this turn (barring the Wrath of Stanley) and a 100% chance of croaking a bunch of RCC troops when they attacked GK. That's the bare minimum he needed to accomplish, not a sign of success.

-H

[Whispri]

I really don't think the damage Parson has inflicted is anywhere near as decisive as people are claiming. Yes, Parson killed and animated a bunch of Jetstone troops. But he's also lost almost all of his dwagons, 60% of his Warlords, and convinced the RCC to add a lot of Archons to their forces.

Is that really a major change in the balance of power? Maybe, but it's certainly not a given. A well entrenched force is assumed to be able to inflict lopsided casualties on anyone attacking them, so in order for Parson to outperform the Leading Brand Warlord(tm), he has to do more than just croak a bunch of people. I'd say it's possible that Parson is in a worse position relative to his opponent than he was on Day 0.

That's not to say that Parson is a failure as a Warlord. But I do think it's a stretch to claim that Parson is winning simply because he isn't dead and has croaked a bunch of RCC troops. Parson had a 0% chance of being croaked before this turn (barring the Wrath of Stanley) and a 100% chance of croaking a bunch of RCC troops when they attacked GK. That's the bare minimum he needed to accomplish, not a sign of success.

-H

Where to start? Hmm, first off, the odds, without Charlie interfering, which he has done once again, then the odds of him holding of the RCC juggernaut this turn were about three to two. Against the numbers they're facing, those are good odds. Now Charlie has... with the exception of Ansom staying with the column, everything that's gone wrong for Parson since his summoning is the result of Charlie interfering. That's the problem, Parson's fighting two fires, and Charlie is a fire with a great deal of heavy air support. As for losses, Ansom can absorb a lot, but there's no denying his army has suffered heavily at Parson's hands. And while that army is still a major threat, if not for Charlie it would be stuck outside the City's Walls.

[Hatu]

As for losses, Ansom can absorb a lot, but there's no denying his army has suffered heavily at Parson's hands. And while that army is still a major threat, if not for Charlie it would be stuck outside the City's Walls.

But Charlie was involved, and Ansom clearly considered using Charlie as a reserve before he began his assault. Indeed, given that he fought Wanda in the Airspace zone rather than the Outer Wall zone, it's possible that was his plan all along.

Again, I'm not trying to say that Parson is a failure as a warlord. I like the way Parson has been presented. I just find it odd that Parson gets a great speech about how strategy works even as that speech only applies to him. Ansom gets to do everything Parson says is unrealistic.

For all that Parson has tried, the situation we see basically what Ansom said it would be back in his initial strategy meeting. If Parson had forced Ansom to delay his attack, or to find a different way to assault GK the story would have been much more interesting and believable - even if Ansom was still able to breach GK in the end.

-H

[BarGamer]

It really does look like a distraction on Wanda's part. After all, she didn't expect the perfect Warlord to be impossible to defeat. And if she's flat out giving up, well half-heartedness can be expected either way.

If Wanda was healed, dressed smartly, and not crushed under the weight of her own fatalism, I'd buy that. It's what she did to Summon Parson and distract Stanley so Parson could do the Dragon Donut of Doom. Here, she's probably on her last hitpoints, scuffed, and hopelessly emo. Instead, I imagine she underestimated how little Parson knew about Erfworld mechanics. OR, she thought he was playing her.

I speculate Stanley will croak some Archons, while Parson does something with his newfound game mechanics. Another Donut of Doom, please?

[Alexei P]

Again, I'm not trying to say that Parson is a failure as a warlord. I like the way Parson has been presented. I just find it odd that Parson gets a great speech about how strategy works even as that speech only applies to him. Ansom gets to do everything Parson says is unrealistic.

25-1 strength superiority. Of course Ansom can afford to do stuff that's unrealistic for Parson - he's plain stronger. Under these odds, its only natural that Parson has to do the better part of hoop-jumping - Ansom can simply afford to absorb the shock and move on.

And let's not forget that Parson's last blow actually was nearly fatal. The Coalition was this close to shattering. This close. And it still might.

[Dacia Brabant]

Great speech. Here's a thought for something Parson might try with the newfound munitions:

Spoiler

Show

The RCC has no communications with Jillian and Vinny's flyers now, right? So they can't confirm whether Stanley and his dwagons were where they thought they'd be. Why not use the Foolamancy spell to make it look like you're un-veiling stacks of dwagons within the courtyard (they're pretty sure GK has a Foolamancer), use the Shockamancy--assuming this is attack magic--to give the illusory dwagons breath weapons that actually do real damage with hit-and-fly style attacks again, and use Thinkamancy to spread fear and doubt among the allies?

You'd kill some and make the rest even more suspicious of everything they think they know about the situation and Ansom's plan, think that the whole thing with the fliers and Charlie was a set-up, possibly to the point where they accuse Ansom of duplicity. A well-timed Thinkagram to emphasize how Charlie's snatching away all the good loot in the deal with Ansom could push them over the edge.

[reteo]

According to various sources in the comic, the RCC had a total of 9751 troops to spend toward the war effort, while Gobwin Knob had 782 (after the dwagons left), which was a 12-to-1 advantage for RCC. As of right now, given all that we know from what was said in the comic, the current tally of RCC is 6881 (after losing 2870 Jetstone troops), and the tally of Gobwin Knob is 3652 (after uncroaking that many troops in this turn). This changes the RCC's lead to a mere 2-to-1. So Parson evened the playing field by magnitudes, and is now seeking the information to even it further.

Additionally, that shift was at the expense of Jetstone, the leader of the coalition. This can provide a strong tool for further demoralization of the coalition as the battle progresses. I would say that while he's still not winning, there's certainly something to be said for his ability as a warlord.

Of course, the numbers might vary, as not all wins or losses have been accounted for, but that shouldn't really matter, as the balance has definitely been shifted. Not all the way, but certainly to a more manageable degree, whatever the positioning of the combatants.

[The Glyphstone]

is that taking into account the effectivness of the troops, though? He's down almost 50 dwagons. plus however many golems Sizemore lost in the tunnels, which have to be worth far more than a 1-1 ratio versus the low-power Uncroaked he's acquired since losing them.

[reteo]

Keep in mind that Both sources take place after Stanley leaves, so they take into account both the dwagons leaving and the loss of seige.

As for the golems in the tunnels, it's possible that there were some lost, although Sizemore was providing heals. Even so, I would give the variance of odds to vary within +/- 2 levels. There's no telling how many RCC forces were lost during the fighting retreat, it wasn't mentioned how many archons were added, no knowledge as to Parson's direct (in-stack, in-hex, with sword) leadership bonus, and of course, no telling how the return of Stanley would reflect on the resulting odds.

[teratorn]

Of course, the numbers might vary, as not all wins or losses have been accounted for, but that shouldn't really matter, as the balance has definitely been shifted.

There were a lot of dead since then. Ansom may have deuncroaked a lot of the undead, Parson's cycling of forces near the wall may have killed hundreds, but in terms of quality Ansom still has a huge advantage.

A few of the air defences may be working. Not sure Ansom can do the same thing he did on the outer walls, but Parson made it look that the inner walls may fall rather quickly. I'd like to see troops pouring from siege towers directly onto the walls.

[surtt]

Spoiler

Show

...or unwilling to take the garrison...

I wonder if this might have something to do with Ansom's contract with Charlie. For example Ansom doesn't need to pay until the garrison is taken. If the price is too much for Ansom now that he isn't seconds away from being croaked or there is a clause in the contract that Ansom didn't realize.

[reteo]

Well, much of the key information is unknown to us, but the essence is this: While Parson may not be changing Ansom's overall strategy, Parson has done a real number on the odds against him. No matter what we have, it's not likely the original 12-to-one (admittedly solely numerical) advantage they had when Stanley left, and certainly not the 25-to-one advantage stated by Wanda at the beginning of the comic.

Ansom may be using the same fundamental strategy, but he has had to adapt its particulars several times. In the donut of doom, it was not the archery units he brought with him that did away with the wounded dwagons, it was the flying reserve.

And the attack plan on the city was changed multiple times as a reaction to Parson's activities. Its fundamental nature was a two-pronged move, feint and attack, that would have had GK defending on two fronts. The reduction of the seige and Parson's maneuvering of units changed the order of feint and strike so that the strike came from the tunnels. As a result, 72% of Jetstone's troops were converted to GK troops for that turn. It also removed the 'feint' part of the plan, as there was no longer two fronts to use, so Ansom was reduced to one strategy: direct assault. In this case, Parson took one of Ansom's objectives away from him (taking the tunnels).

The assault portion of the plan had to be changed as well, because Ansom had fewer siege, and GK had more units to defend the walls. So, bombarding all sides changed to bombarding one point that Ansom would make into a weak point. This assault would likely also be more costly for the attackers than the defenders, especially with the fighting retreat.

So, to say that Ansom hadn't needed to change his plan is obviously not correct, as, as outlined above, the feint proved a disastrous failure, and was removed as an option, and the generall all-sides bombardment was changed to a focused attack on a single point Ansom had to personally weaken, and nearly lost everything to do.

As for the losses, keep in mind that Ansom lost 2870 troops in the tunnels, which was 3.5 times the number of troops that Gobwin Knob had total to begin with. So the combat ability is not necessarily as lopsided as it seems.

If anything, this whole battle reminds me of the Pyrrhic War, in which both sides were taking a nasty beating.

Finally, paraphrased from Vinny: "Don't write off the uncroaked. Sure, unlead uncroaked are real weak. But with a warlord bonus? Theyyy're... more like basic infantry units. Havin' the Chief Warlord in the hex adds another bonus, so every uncroaked we got here is like advanced infantry. The ones in Parson's personal stack'll have his full bonus, so they'll be almost like heavies. And we have a flippin' ton of uncroaked. Thousands."

[Ya Ta Hey!]

...Thank goodness all that severe bodily harm, harsh reminder of personal tragedy and denial of closure, and quiet despair at the looming jaws of defeat didn't stop Wanda from slipping into a stylish tank top.

Nobody asked me, but its just kinda hard to see her as the twisted but calculating wielder of arcane death when she does that.

[DragoonKain]

So what does everyone think Parson's stack will be when they engage?

Parson
Wanda
Maggie
Sizemore
Bogroll
Metal Golem
Metal Golem
Metal Golem

is what I'd guess.

[SteveMB]

Well maybe not that threat specifically, but it does feel like this strip is the writers responding to recent criticism of Parsons abilities, neatly tied in with addressing moral issues with the troops.

Er, with the story planned out in advance, it was predictable that reactions (from both other characters and readers) would be to doubt Parson after he suffered a series of reverses.

[Fjolnir]

the stack(s) I would see happening is :
parson
wanda
bogroll
and the 5 strongest nonwarlord undead left

Sizemore
7 golems

Maggie
7 heavies on defence
(she represents the entire command and control portion of the battle for GK besides parson himself, she's going to be as far from the front line as possible, protected by the strongest units they have)

Or

Parson
Bogroll
6 heavies/knights

Wanda
Sizemore
Maggie
5 heavies for defence
(this arrangement suggests that parson will be out leading from the front while the 3 casters use magic)

[Altima]

So what does everyone think Parson's stack will be when they engage?

Parson
Wanda
Maggie
Sizemore
Bogroll
Metal Golem
Metal Golem
Metal Golem

is what I'd guess.

Sizemore and Wanda will, more than likely, be leading their own stacks (golems and uncroaked, respectively). Maggie doesn't seem much of a fighter.

I see Parson wading into battle with trolls and/or hobogobwins--they're all almost as tall as Parson. Bogroll was also foreshadowed nicely to save Parson's life.

Lastly, I do find it odd that Parson would be leading troops directly. It's already stated that all units in GK automatically receive his warlord leadership bonus (which was two before the spell was completed). So, really, all he'd be doing would be making himself a giant target.

Only reason Caesar's stack got a bonus against the dwagons was because they weren't in the city (and likely Caesar was a very, very high level).

[Doran]

Sizemore and Wanda will, more than likely, be
Only reason Caesar's stack got a bonus against the dwagons was because they weren't in the city (and likely Caesar was a very, very high level).

No, all units in the hex got a bonus from Caesar being there, his personal stack got the full bonus.

[teratorn]

...Thank goodness all that severe bodily harm, harsh reminder of personal tragedy and denial of closure, and quiet despair at the looming jaws of defeat didn't stop Wanda from slipping into a stylish tank top.

It takes hours for Parson to go from the tower to the dungeons... the fight in the area between the walls is even over.

I guess Sizemore had to undress Wanda in order to apply the healing...

[Maxymiuk]

I guess Sizemore had to undress Wanda in order to apply the healing...

...

That sounds all kinds of wrong given the context.

Though I'm more inclined to think that the "stylish tanktop" was what Wanda already was wearing under the armor (which Sizemore removed on account of it being busted in the fall).

[DevilDan]

Interesting numbers. Whatever else, don't forget that Parson judged the fighting retreat as "good" and "low-cost" even if insufficient by itself to change the situation as a whole.

[Aquillion]

...

That sounds all kinds of wrong given the context.

Though I'm more inclined to think that the "stylish tanktop" was what Wanda already was wearing under the armor (which Sizemore removed on account of it being busted in the fall).

Actually, that reminds me... one thing that occurred to me last page was that it might be interesting if Sizemore is nursing a hopeless crush on Wanda. It would fit in with his generally despairing attitude, and would only sharpen his disagreement with Parson (for not being certain whether he was going to save Wanda or the walls.)

Not that there's much evidence of it, but somehow it came into my head.

[Bawon von Howse]

We don't know how much 'juice' any of the GK casters have left...I can imagine that Wanda used quite a bit doing the mass uncroaking on GKs last turn...also, Maggie is invaluable in being able to relay commands to the troops, however given the proximity Parson should be able to lead the troops directly.

I would imagine that Wanda will be dropping some scroll based magic on the invaders (yay for shockamancy)...Sizemore will be leading the golems...shame there aren't any troops that directly gain a bonus in being led by a Thinkamancer!

However, as things stand at the moment, it looks like this particular battle will end this turn now; Parson will have to fall back to the dungeon after the courtyard is overrun by RCC troops...unless Ansom does the monumentally stupid move of ending turn now!...perhaps Stanley will arrive back to find the RCC defeated!