Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

[Lamech]

I've ran the numbers. Entropy favors the underdog. Unless the number of masons and their allegiance is known, there are simply too many variables.

However, multiple assassins using their ability will not alter the ratio of llamas to ducks, on average. Simple probability shows that whenever someone's firing blind, you generally have the kill spread match closely to the ratio of remaining players.

Also bear in mind... What does a voting record do? It shows you what he/she aimed at, which is really useful, if your target knew who he/she was aiming at.

If the victim is firing just as blindly as you? It tells you nothing.

Huh? There are too many variable's? And you "ran the numbers" Mason's on the wolves have been acounted for on by simply assuming the wolves kill at random. Except they can't kill fellow wolves. I assumed that mason's on the villager's team wouldn't be able to affect much if everyone was killed with out time to gather info. Look... it may not be conclusive, but its good enough for me to say that we probably should gather info before mass random killings.

[Talic]

Huh? There are too many variable's? And you "ran the numbers" Mason's on the wolves have been acounted for on by simply assuming the wolves kill at random. Except they can't kill fellow wolves. I assumed that mason's on the villager's team wouldn't be able to affect much if everyone was killed with out time to gather info. Look... it may not be conclusive, but its good enough for me to say that we probably should gather info before mass random killings.

1st: Taking large groups of people at random is what's known in surveys as "sampling". It tends to closely match the composition. It doesn't majorly affect the game, as the ratios remain unchanged.

But, the lowered number of variables makes it easier to sort through the highly confusing information set that this WW game has.

I mean really, what information? You're gonna get the voting history of someone who was taking shots in the dark? How's that any different than what you were doing in the first place? I mean really.

When nobody knows who's who... Then nobody's voting record matters worth a hill of beans. Each member has to be ferreted out one at a time... based on their post. NOT their vote. Both sides will have friendly fire. Both sides are doing this.

Because knowing all the information of a random sampling (which is what everyone's vote is)? That's knowing that you've got another set of meaningless data.

But gather that info. See what it does for you. My guess? Precious little.

One wolf won't lead you to others. The wolf strength is the wolf weakness. They knew each other, and that knowledge could be used against them.

The dead can't betray their secrets... That's the argument against early lynching/assassinating.

Neither can the ignorant. And every one of us, save the masons, is ignorant of any information about anyone else.

[billtodamax]

I'm not sure everyone has followed the guideline of being able to sing and perform on at least one instrument the songs he posts, but hey, who cares.

I'll be trying to do that for as long as I can.

Spoiler

Show

I am a man who walks alone
And when Im walking a dark road
At night or strolling through the park

When the light begins to change
I sometimes feel a little strange
A little anxious when its dark

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you run your fingers down the wall
And have you felt your neck skin crawl
When youre searching for the light?

Sometimes when youre scared to take a look
At the corner of the room
Youve sensed that somethings watching you

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you ever been alone at night
Thought you heard footsteps behind
And turned around and no ones there?

And as you quicken up your pace
You find it hard to look again
Because youre sure theres someone there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!

Watching horror films the night before
Debating wiches and folklore
The unkown troubles on your mind
Maybe your mind is playing tricks
You sense and suddenly eyes fix
On dancing shadows from behind

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

When Im walking a dark road
I am a man who walkes alone

Hey, I can play Thriller on the piano.

[Murska]

And sing, of course?

Cliffs of Dover was a bit of a stretch for me. I can 'sing' it completely and perfectly, of course, but I can only play it on GH3 controller, expert, hyperspeed 2.

[Lex-Kat]

I'll point at Jontom Xire, because he and Talic are giving me a headache with all there logic on day 1.

[billtodamax]

but of course. [creepily high MJ voice]OW![/creepily high MJ voice]

[ThePhantom]

I'll point at Jontom Xire, because he and Talic are giving me a headache with all there logic on day 1.

Someone else with my viewpoint, Jontom Xire, you are causing too much confusion for me.

[Helgraf]

:ignores big arguing walls of text:

The Valiant Turtle

[Supagoof]

Aaaand after many hours...day 1 ends.

The llama's, with confusion and mystery clouding their judgements, began casting accusations upon each other.

He's a duck.
She's a duck.
A duck duck here, a duck duck there, here a duck, there a duck, every where a duck duck
GOOSE!
I have pancakes, but am not a bunny.
Super-human strength doesn't really apply in llama land.
For all your hoofing needs, visit Lla-mart. The silliest prices, guaranteed!
Yeah, I think wait....what?

But at the end of the day, a majority could not be met. And like the great spirit Shadow-ladow-ding-dong once advised everyone, the law is much kinder if we reach a 25% agreement on who to lynch in order to lynch. So the llama's, despite picking a few not so lucky people for accusations, didn't really agree enough on one culprit to hang.

So as the night settled in, the llamas each went back to the castle to their rooms. Many locking their doors, and not one trusting another.

Summary:
Not enough of a percentage was met for lynching. Lynchings will happen when 25% of the points are for one player. Days will end early if 50% of the points or more are for one player. Yes, we dug this from the archives. And no - no one was lynched today.

Assassination attempts made today will take place tonight - baring any baning or voiding to prevent them. All players with night actions, please send them in.

Day 1 ends. Night 1 Begins (and will probably end sometime Monday because it'll take a while to make sure we get it all correct .)

[happyturtle]

Hmm, should I bane Shadow or Murska tonight?

[Murska]

I'm already being baned by three people, assassinated by four, wolfkilled, voided by five and done other, unspeakable things to by two.

[Dallas-Dakota]

Don't forget, you're getting nommed by me.

Hmmm, flaming green eye....

[UncleWolf]

Alright guys, I'm taking bets.

*puts a gold coin on the table*

I bet that 5 people will be killed tonight.

[happyturtle]

I'll go high. 8 people.

*slides one gold colored coin across the table*



BTW, if you think you're in danger, please contact me, and I'll see about getting my fellow masons to arrange protection.

[Murska]

I'll bet ten pieces of eight on three dead.

[Cristo Meyers]

I'm already being baned by three people, assassinated by four, wolfkilled, voided by five and done other, unspeakable things to by two.

I TOLD YOU NOT TO SPEAK OF IT!

..er...I mean...

...5 shekels on 4 dead.

[UncleWolf]

I TOLD YOU NOT TO SPEAK OF IT!

Oh, so you were the other one from the party last night. I thought so.

[Dallas-Dakota]

I put a golden coin on both 1, 7 and 13 dead.

And a cookie on 5 dead.

[Reinholdt]

I'll bet three kitties on three dead.

This bet for me. Though I already made it in chats, I'll stand by it now.

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

Sorry, my PM box filled up. Turns out leaving it at 95% full when going to a friend's for the weekend was a bad idea.

It has more space now.

[Fleeing Coward]

50 of someone else's gold on 0 dead and we all live happily ever after

[Talic]

I'll put 50 gold on 4 de....

WAIT A MINUTE!? WHERE'D MY 50 GOLD GO?

[billtodamax]

I'll go conservative. My left foot on 3 dead. Maybe 2.

[Talic]

I'll go conservative. My left foot on 3 dead. Maybe 2.

So... you have 2 left feet?

[Reinholdt]

So... you have 2 left feet?

*thinks Talic should keep a closer eye on his valuables*

[Talic]

Hey now! I thought we were talking about feet, not... valuables.

[billtodamax]

the "maybe 2" was actually a guess of how many died. My official bet is still on 3, though.

[UncleWolf]

Alright, and the bets are as follows...

Wolfbane: 5 deaths
Happyturtle: 8 deaths
Murska: 2 deaths
Cristo: 4 deaths
DD the Cookiemonster:6 deaths
Reinholdt: 3 deaths
Fleeing Coward: 0 deaths.
Talic: 4 deaths Sorry, we need some form of payment. Find some and then I will count your vote.
billtodamax: 3 deaths

The Prize:
52 gold coins(possibly a fake coin too)
3 kittens
A left foot
10 pieces of eight
5 shekels
1 cookie

@V: And that is taken care of.

[Murska]

Hmpf. I chose 3 first in-thread. And now all these others are picking the same.

I'll switch my bet to 2 then.

[Dallas-Dakota]

Blegh.
6 deaths then.