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  1. - Top - End - #241
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by Selrahc View Post
    The thing is, we are dealing with people, not statistics. The fact that there is no voting record to analyse properly does not mean that we can't examine the actions of people.
    Wrong. We're dealing with both.
    Quote Originally Posted by Selrahc View Post
    I'm not a spreadsheet gamer. I've tried using them, and frankly it made the entire thing seem too much like homework rather than a game. But even without strenuous vote analysis I've found a few wolves. You can still pick up on oddities in behaviour. People who are trying to stay out of the limelight, people who are aiming to set themselves up by being prominent to accuse. The reactions of those who are accused. Even little things can reveal clues. So yeah, it is possible to find ducks without voting records, and the longer we leave the game running, the more chance it will give us to find those ducks who slip up in their imitation of a llama.
    Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?
    Quote Originally Posted by Selrahc View Post
    Then there is the other advantage of time, as has already been proved, we have a lot of potential seers. Since the llama seers can speak up when they find a duck, and the ducks can only link up when they find a duck, and gain no real advantage by scrying a llama time makes our seers more valuable than theirs.
    And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.
    Quote Originally Posted by Selrahc View Post
    A lot of your mathematical findings take the idea that the most likely result will happen every time. It won't. At the end of the day, it's all a huge crapshoot. Personally, I'd prefer it if was everyone who was working together to find the ducks, rather than the entire game essentially being an exercise in random scenario simulation.
    Or you can take it as... Have fun. Don't think about it. Goof off... And if you're a Llama? Probably win.
    Quote Originally Posted by Selrahc View Post
    Lastly, I'd say that the entire goal is a bit rubbish. You want to make this game incredibly short, and wreck a lot of people's enjoyment, and the payoff for that is that the ducks *may* be easier to wipe out, assuming the ratios stay the same.
    Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.

  2. - Top - End - #242
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    The game is about fun. Not being in a mathematical exersice. Thats why we are here to play. Maybe I screwed up when I tapped up the program and your right, but it wouldn't change my opinion. Why shouldn't be killing people totally randomly this early in the game.


    Quote Originally Posted by Talic
    They're pretty much all blind. Wolves are just as likely to kill wolves. Lynch is just as random as anything.

    IT IS ALL RANDOM.

    And when randomness is total, the side with greater numbers has the advantage.
    No not everything is random. Not the wolf night kill that can only harm wolves. I suspect you havn't totally thought this through. And what can seem logical, can be false. Ex: If a probablity distribution is symetrical over the x-axis when plotted, what is the average value? (X's are output, area is probablity of something falling that range.) 0 right?
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Bah. Stupid srs business.

    Puts my feathers in a ruffle.
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  4. - Top - End - #244
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    No not everything is random. Not the wolf night kill that can only harm wolves. I suspect you havn't totally thought this through. And what can seem logical, can be false. Ex: If a probablity distribution is symetrical over the x-axis when plotted, what is the average value? (X's are output, area is probablity of something falling that range.) 0 right?
    How often in a WW game is probability distribution symmetrical?

    It's usually around 18 / 6... or so. Llamas outnumber 3 to 1, typically.

  5. - Top - End - #245
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by Talic View Post
    How often in a WW game is probability distribution symmetrical?

    It's usually around 18 / 6... or so. Llamas outnumber 3 to 1, typically.
    Again, flawed.
    Good guys, typically (to use your words) outnumber the bad guys 4 to 1, or 5 to 1.
    Flawed math, as I said.

    And this is to say nothing of the fact that we have all seen "snipers, assassins, and the like" in play and they almost always end up helping the bad guys, regardless of your wonderful math.

    edit: I'll see you guys tomorrow sometime.
    Last edited by Shadow; 2009-04-07 at 06:59 PM.

  6. - Top - End - #246
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    The "Ex:" was an example that has nothing to do with WW games, other than to illistrate a point. Its just any symetrical probablity distrubitution. Is that enough to get an average?
    Last edited by Lamech; 2009-04-07 at 07:02 PM.
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  7. - Top - End - #247
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    This is a silly message board game - intended for fun and diversion. Assassins are in the mix this time, and it seems to have everyone up in a ruckus. Logic fights logic fights llama logic - my head is spinning already. I need a break. Can everybody just stop for a while please?

    The ducks are laughing on the sidelines about how assassin fever has taken over this game. Everybody is so paranoid about assassination, that the ducks are going unnoticed and unchased.

    Whether or not Assassins in the end work for the side of the llamas or the ducks (or the bunnies - don't forget the bunnies!) is pretty much irrelevant. I seem to remember that last game, the Assassin was a neutral poodle who sided with the Llamas. In that example the "random element" worked on side Llama. People are free to play the game as they see fit. Talic seems honourable after his own fashion. If he wants to play his challenge, thats fine with me. Its part of the craziness that is Llama Llama Duck (and Bunny!)
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  8. - Top - End - #248
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Wrong. We're dealing with both.
    Sure. The fact is though, the statistics you are quoting aren't real people. The game will be. Theoretical statistics tell us very little about the actual situation that is likely to result unless they are a damn sight better founded than yours.

    Look at the crazy levels of generalization you're making in the maths. Baners aren't taken into account, anomalous results aren't taken into account, the fact that kills won't be completely random isn't taken into account. The entire model is nothing more than a bundle of quick sums.

    I don't think that serves as a correct basis on which to sentence 4 out of 5 players of this game to death, which is your proposed rational course of action.

    Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?
    Well quite. That's precisely the reason why we shouldn't be trying to end things early.

    And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.
    No. People think he is a duck, and he gets lynched. Because really, who would present a better target.

    If he was really a fool, well then it's a scant loss. If he was really a duck, then he has traded a duck for a llama. A fools bargain.

    Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.
    I'd say that isn't really right.

    Cue long winded boring mathsy bit without which my arguments will probably be dismissed out of hand. Blah.
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    If there are 70 good people, 30 bad people and 10 random people are killed the most likely result is that 7 good people and 3 bad people will die.

    That is only one possible result though. The actual result could be anything from 10 good people dying to 9 bad person and 1 good one.

    The odds of the actual result of the random kills being 7:3 is slightly higher than any other combination, but it is not above 50%. It is more likely for that result not to occur than to occur. Even if it does occur, the next time it probably won't.

    Even though 7 is the most likely number to come up on two dice, the odds of a number other than 7 occurring are greater than the odds of 7 occurring. The sum of all probabilities apart from seven is greater than the probability of 7.

    I think the claim that random killing will not skew the ratio is like claiming that if you throw the 2 dice 10 times it will never roll anything other than a seven. The probability of the ratio of good to evil being substantially changed by the end game, far from being a near impossibility as you claim, is in fact almost certain to happen.

    I will concede, if this was an infinite random sampling, the ratio would eventually swing back to even over time. But since the sample size is so small the odds of anomalous results making a huge difference is in fact rather high.
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  9. - Top - End - #249
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I have provided a summary of day two for lazy llamas, bunnies, and ducks everywhere who are dismayed by the walls of text:



    Wolfbane: Blargh. I r ded.

    Happyturtle: I'm evil! But nobody lynches girls. Neener Neener!

    lamech: "Maths!"

    Selrahc: "Maths!"

    Jontom: "Assasins are bad! Lynch Talic!"

    Shadow: "Yeah!"

    Talic: "Nuh-uh!"

    Reinholdt: "JX is a duck."

    Everyone else: Lolwut?
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  10. - Top - End - #250
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I agree with Turtle. And the last time she claimed evil, in the game, it turned out she was evil.
    Shadow
    So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.
    Last edited by Lex-Kat; 2009-04-08 at 01:31 PM.

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  11. - Top - End - #251
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.
    If that had been what he said, I'd have no problem with it. I just think that attempting to justify it as more than just fun wordgames and an excuse to stab people, but rather as the optimal way to play the game isn't really justified.


    I have provided a summary of day two for lazy llamas, bunnies, and ducks everywhere who are dismayed by the walls of text:
    Sorry about all the wordy stuff if it is annoying people, I just enjoy a good debate, even if it is over trivial issues.

    I did also set you on fire a bit. If that helps.
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Oh right

    *runs around thread flailing and ON FIRE!*
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  13. - Top - End - #253
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    Oh right

    *runs around thread flailing and ON FIRE!*
    I can help with that!

    *stabs multiple times*

    Um...tha...

    ...wait, that didn't really help did it?

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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    I agree with Turtle. And the last time she claimed evil, in the game, it turned out she was evil.
    Made you look!
    So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.
    I'm so glad my loyal henchpixie knows me well enough to know what an evil scheming horror I am.

    Lex-kat
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  15. - Top - End - #255
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    Again, flawed.
    Good guys, typically (to use your words) outnumber the bad guys 4 to 1, or 5 to 1.
    Flawed math, as I said.

    And this is to say nothing of the fact that we have all seen "snipers, assassins, and the like" in play and they almost always end up helping the bad guys, regardless of your wonderful math.

    edit: I'll see you guys tomorrow sometime.
    If good guys outnumber MORE, then that argues my case MORE.

    When they don't know who the bad guys are, they can't help em knowingly...

    Which reduces your argument to, "But Mom, we ALWAYS have the bad luck."

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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - Kill: Murska

    Jontom Xire seems to be the most likely to be a duck at the moment, at least to me.
    Last edited by Griever; 2009-04-08 at 02:14 AM.
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  17. - Top - End - #257
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Lex--kat has swayed my vote happyturtle.
    Edit: Reccadien's fault.
    Last edited by Lamech; 2009-04-07 at 09:11 PM.
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    You have a second happyturtle?

    I'm pretty sure the ratio is 3.5 good: 1 evil: 0.5 neutral.

    We have 1 lynch, 1 night kill, and I would guess 5 night kills. I think we need to see through Shadow's concerned villager act and kill him right now. Sure, it could be genuine, but do we want to take the risk of our best players actually being ducks? Probably, because we could lose just as much. But that's no fun, is it? And yeah, people get killed, which isn't fun. But people lose games, and we have to accept that, and remember it's just a game, and kill Shadow ASAP!
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  19. - Top - End - #259
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    But the... Jontom Xire... and I outed myself...
    Umm... right.
    *goes to sit and watch and wait and see*
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    Reinholdt had already told the truth once in that post, and therefore was over his annual quota.

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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    *wonders why people are speculating when the answer is in the rules post*

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    TEAMS
    Llama’s – Llama’s will make up ~70% of the players.

    Duck’s – Duck’s will make up ~20% of the players.
    *returns to racing around the thread with a knife in my spleen, flailing and ON FIRE!*
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  21. - Top - End - #261
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    letters, we get letters! We get sacks and sacks of letters. Letterssss!

    Ooooh, I forgot there was a bulletin board.
    I'm going to kill Supagoof tonight!
    But shh, it's a secret.
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  22. - Top - End - #262
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Hm, lessee what the kitty is up to.
    Jontom Xire *nodnodnod*
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I'm not too keen on having a lot of assassins around. We don't know how many are ducks, and will thus be getting extra kills. Any Llama assassins at the moment probably don't know who to kill.

    On the seer test: Can we not have JX as the subject of the seer test? I don't mind if it's me, but killing a strategist without being sure whose side he's on doesn't strike me as a particularly bright idea.

    I point at Happyturtle. Girls are allowed to kill girls, right?

    No, no, I'll keep my point at Evnafets.
    Last edited by Nychta; 2009-04-08 at 12:49 AM.
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    4 SUM REASON I SUSPECT DAT HAPPEH IZ PROTECTD BY HOWARD, DIS CAN OV COURSE WIF ANY OV TEH OTHR BANDWAGONS, BUT SINCE WE NED 25 % (OR WHATEVR) 2 LYNCH SOMONE... Talic

    (I will from now on only speak in lolspeak, enjoy.)
    Last edited by Shadowcaller; 2009-04-08 at 12:59 AM.

  25. - Top - End - #265
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I'm afraid I'm going to have to point at Talic today. Too much brain hurty and I'm disinclined to go against both Shadow and JX.
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Hmm, I think happyturtle, sorry Sniper kitty, not sure about yah.
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I'm horrible at word games, especially ones where the rules aren't known to me. So if/when Talic gets around to me, I'm pretty dead.

    However, I'm perfectly happy to test a seer day on JX. If only because he's going around and being mean to people.

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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    Well, I was gonna test "The kitty"'s* scry. It seems that noone else wants to though.

    *I'll be giving you all nicknames. They'll probably vaguely relate to your name or avatar. It's so you know I'm not killing you.
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  29. - Top - End - #269
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    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    1) Reinholdt, you're a fool.
    2) Shadow, I cannot believe you got sucked into the trap of trying to argue with Talic after I avoided it (mostly) on day 1.
    3) Lynching Talic is the only way to stop these arguments. As I said before you cannot hold a logical argument with someone who doesn't understand logic.

    I can't believe I am seeing Shadow making exactly the same arguments with Talic as I already made. I know Talic is the sort of person who is A) convinced he is right no matter what, and B) Unable to actually consider, let alone understand, other people logical arguments. even so, seeign the same argument unfold AGAIN right before my eyes is amazing.

    As for all the people who vote for me, I don't blame you. I almost voted for myself, but think that the greater good demands that we lynch Talic instead. But Reinholdt, I have one thing to suggest, and to all other seers in all other games. Maybe instead of scrying the "big names" and then accidentally lynching someone really (potentially) useful when it turns out you are the fool, how about scrying less potentially useful people and lynching one of them to prove your seerdom - or not.

    ===========

    Can a mason please get in touch. I may have some useful information. Obviously there is a risk if I am a duck. But one mason is the risk and the gain may be worth more.
    Last edited by Jontom Xire; 2009-04-08 at 03:14 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowcaller View Post
    Damn Jontom and his twisting logic that make sense.
    Quote Originally Posted by banjo1985 View Post
    Nothing personal JX, I just know how completely devious and brilliant you are at these games when you have the time to devote to them.
    Quote Originally Posted by banjo1985 View Post
    All I'll say is that Jontom is a master at these games ... the blue guy with the spiky teeth can be very persuasive.

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  30. - Top - End - #270
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    banjo1985's Avatar

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

    I'm going to completely and utterly ignore all this tactical nonsense and vote for Reinholdt without any forethought or sense whatsoever.


    Excellent Elan & Yoshi avatar by Mr Saturn

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