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2009-04-07, 06:28 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2007
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- Houston, TX
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Wrong. We're dealing with both.
Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.Or you can take it as... Have fun. Don't think about it. Goof off... And if you're a Llama? Probably win.Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.
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2009-04-07, 06:34 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
The game is about fun. Not being in a mathematical exersice. Thats why we are here to play. Maybe I screwed up when I tapped up the program and your right, but it wouldn't change my opinion. Why shouldn't be killing people totally randomly this early in the game.
Originally Posted by Talic
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2009-04-07, 06:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Mar 2007
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- avatar by Ashen Lilies
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Bah. Stupid srs business.
Puts my feathers in a ruffle.My avatar! Isn't it just utterly diabolical? Ashen Lilies made it!
"Money cannot buy health, but I'd settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair."
― Dorothy Parker
Spoiler: Interested in Nexus FFRP? Newcomers welcome!
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2009-04-07, 06:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2007
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- Houston, TX
- Gender
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2009-04-07, 06:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2006
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- A van down by the river.
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Again, flawed.
Good guys, typically (to use your words) outnumber the bad guys 4 to 1, or 5 to 1.
Flawed math, as I said.
And this is to say nothing of the fact that we have all seen "snipers, assassins, and the like" in play and they almost always end up helping the bad guys, regardless of your wonderful math.
edit: I'll see you guys tomorrow sometime.Last edited by Shadow; 2009-04-07 at 06:59 PM.
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2009-04-07, 07:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
The "Ex:" was an example that has nothing to do with WW games, other than to illistrate a point. Its just any symetrical probablity distrubitution. Is that enough to get an average?
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2009-04-07, 07:15 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
- Location
- NZ
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
This is a silly message board game - intended for fun and diversion. Assassins are in the mix this time, and it seems to have everyone up in a ruckus. Logic fights logic fights llama logic - my head is spinning already. I need a break. Can everybody just stop for a while please?
The ducks are laughing on the sidelines about how assassin fever has taken over this game. Everybody is so paranoid about assassination, that the ducks are going unnoticed and unchased.
Whether or not Assassins in the end work for the side of the llamas or the ducks (or the bunnies - don't forget the bunnies!) is pretty much irrelevant. I seem to remember that last game, the Assassin was a neutral poodle who sided with the Llamas. In that example the "random element" worked on side Llama. People are free to play the game as they see fit. Talic seems honourable after his own fashion. If he wants to play his challenge, thats fine with me. Its part of the craziness that is Llama Llama Duck (and Bunny!)Check out past werewolf games at the Unofficial GiantITP werewolf archive
Also wasting too much time playing Evony right now.
I don't wanna be a llama or a duck or a wabbit.
I wanna be a POODLE!
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2009-04-07, 07:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2006
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Wrong. We're dealing with both.
Look at the crazy levels of generalization you're making in the maths. Baners aren't taken into account, anomalous results aren't taken into account, the fact that kills won't be completely random isn't taken into account. The entire model is nothing more than a bundle of quick sums.
I don't think that serves as a correct basis on which to sentence 4 out of 5 players of this game to death, which is your proposed rational course of action.
Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?
And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.
If he was really a fool, well then it's a scant loss. If he was really a duck, then he has traded a duck for a llama. A fools bargain.
Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.
Cue long winded boring mathsy bit without which my arguments will probably be dismissed out of hand. Blah.
Spoiler
If there are 70 good people, 30 bad people and 10 random people are killed the most likely result is that 7 good people and 3 bad people will die.
That is only one possible result though. The actual result could be anything from 10 good people dying to 9 bad person and 1 good one.
The odds of the actual result of the random kills being 7:3 is slightly higher than any other combination, but it is not above 50%. It is more likely for that result not to occur than to occur. Even if it does occur, the next time it probably won't.
Even though 7 is the most likely number to come up on two dice, the odds of a number other than 7 occurring are greater than the odds of 7 occurring. The sum of all probabilities apart from seven is greater than the probability of 7.
I think the claim that random killing will not skew the ratio is like claiming that if you throw the 2 dice 10 times it will never roll anything other than a seven. The probability of the ratio of good to evil being substantially changed by the end game, far from being a near impossibility as you claim, is in fact almost certain to happen.
I will concede, if this was an infinite random sampling, the ratio would eventually swing back to even over time. But since the sample size is so small the odds of anomalous results making a huge difference is in fact rather high.
Avatar by Simius
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2009-04-07, 07:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2007
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- avatar by Ashen Lilies
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I have provided a summary of day two for lazy llamas, bunnies, and ducks everywhere who are dismayed by the walls of text:
Wolfbane: Blargh. I r ded.
Happyturtle: I'm evil! But nobody lynches girls. Neener Neener!
lamech: "Maths!"
Selrahc: "Maths!"
Jontom: "Assasins are bad! Lynch Talic!"
Shadow: "Yeah!"
Talic: "Nuh-uh!"
Reinholdt: "JX is a duck."
Everyone else: Lolwut?My avatar! Isn't it just utterly diabolical? Ashen Lilies made it!
"Money cannot buy health, but I'd settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair."
― Dorothy Parker
Spoiler: Interested in Nexus FFRP? Newcomers welcome!
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2009-04-07, 07:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2006
- Location
- In the shadows
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I agree with Turtle. And the last time she claimed evil, in the game, it turned out she was evil.
Shadow
So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.
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2009-04-07, 08:14 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2006
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.
I have provided a summary of day two for lazy llamas, bunnies, and ducks everywhere who are dismayed by the walls of text:
I did also set you on fire a bit. If that helps.Avatar by Simius
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2009-04-07, 08:19 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Mar 2007
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- avatar by Ashen Lilies
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Oh right
*runs around thread flailing and ON FIRE!*My avatar! Isn't it just utterly diabolical? Ashen Lilies made it!
"Money cannot buy health, but I'd settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair."
― Dorothy Parker
Spoiler: Interested in Nexus FFRP? Newcomers welcome!
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2009-04-07, 08:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2007
- Location
- Chicagoland
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2009-04-07, 08:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2007
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- avatar by Ashen Lilies
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
My avatar! Isn't it just utterly diabolical? Ashen Lilies made it!
"Money cannot buy health, but I'd settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair."
― Dorothy Parker
Spoiler: Interested in Nexus FFRP? Newcomers welcome!
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2009-04-07, 08:33 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2007
- Location
- Houston, TX
- Gender
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2009-04-07, 08:48 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2008
- Location
- Texas Tech Univ.
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - Kill: Murska
Jontom Xire seems to be the most likely to be a duck at the moment, at least to me.
Last edited by Griever; 2009-04-08 at 02:14 AM.
"Eins, zwei, drei... Ugh, I do not think we brought enough body bags."
-TF2 Medic1850's TF2 Medic graciously provided by kpenguin
Call Filthy Grief, Pacemaker
Feel like some Dark Coffee?
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2009-04-07, 09:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Lex--kat has swayed my vote happyturtle.
Edit: Reccadien's fault.
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2009-04-07, 09:08 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2008
- Location
- Fever dreams
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
You have a second happyturtle?
I'm pretty sure the ratio is 3.5 good: 1 evil: 0.5 neutral.
We have 1 lynch, 1 night kill, and I would guess 5 night kills. I think we need to see through Shadow's concerned villager act and kill him right now. Sure, it could be genuine, but do we want to take the risk of our best players actually being ducks? Probably, because we could lose just as much. But that's no fun, is it? And yeah, people get killed, which isn't fun. But people lose games, and we have to accept that, and remember it's just a game, and kill Shadow ASAP!
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2009-04-07, 09:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2008
- Location
- In hiding. Always hiding.
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
But the... Jontom Xire... and I outed myself...
Umm... right.
*goes to sit and watch and wait and see*
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2009-04-07, 09:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2007
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- avatar by Ashen Lilies
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Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
My avatar! Isn't it just utterly diabolical? Ashen Lilies made it!
"Money cannot buy health, but I'd settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair."
― Dorothy Parker
Spoiler: Interested in Nexus FFRP? Newcomers welcome!
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2009-04-07, 10:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2006
- Location
- JC, TN or Camelot.
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
letters, we get letters! We get sacks and sacks of letters. Letterssss!
Ooooh, I forgot there was a bulletin board.
I'm going to kill Supagoof tonight!
But shh, it's a secret.
Sincerely,
-Ikeinner circle Legionary of Resiliance
I love my Ceikatars!
Spoiler
Not here as much. I am out Roman around.
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2009-04-08, 12:04 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2007
- Location
- The Nation of Procrasti
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Hm, lessee what the kitty is up to.
Jontom Xire *nodnodnod*Quote Of TheWeekWhenever I Feel Like Updating It (last updated 1/17/12)SpoilerOriginally Posted by Phase
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2009-04-08, 12:46 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2007
- Location
- NZ
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I'm not too keen on having a lot of assassins around. We don't know how many are ducks, and will thus be getting extra kills. Any Llama assassins at the moment probably don't know who to kill.
On the seer test: Can we not have JX as the subject of the seer test? I don't mind if it's me, but killing a strategist without being sure whose side he's on doesn't strike me as a particularly bright idea.
I point at Happyturtle. Girls are allowed to kill girls, right?
No, no, I'll keep my point at Evnafets.Last edited by Nychta; 2009-04-08 at 12:49 AM.
formerly known as xNadia
apologies for the confusion and inconvenience
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2009-04-08, 12:56 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2007
- Location
- Avatar by Gullara
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
4 SUM REASON I SUSPECT DAT HAPPEH IZ PROTECTD BY HOWARD, DIS CAN OV COURSE WIF ANY OV TEH OTHR BANDWAGONS, BUT SINCE WE NED 25 % (OR WHATEVR) 2 LYNCH SOMONE... Talic
(I will from now on only speak in lolspeak, enjoy.)
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2009-04-08, 01:02 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2006
- Location
- BalWash, DelMarVa
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I'm afraid I'm going to have to point at Talic today. Too much brain hurty and I'm disinclined to go against both Shadow and JX.
Want to meet some of the most awesome people on the internet? Come to the Baltimore/DC Area RenFest Meetup 2012!
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2009-04-08, 01:42 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Hmm, I think happyturtle, sorry Sniper kitty, not sure about yah.
Thank you to starwoof for the awesome Astrid avatar.
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2009-04-08, 02:00 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2007
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I'm horrible at word games, especially ones where the rules aren't known to me. So if/when Talic gets around to me, I'm pretty dead.
However, I'm perfectly happy to test a seer day on JX. If only because he's going around and being mean to people.
Writer of the winning scene for Rebellion IV - Thanks guys! Zeus Trophy courtesy of Phase. Who rocks.
CatMuffin Wolfwood courtesy of Onasuma.
Spoiler
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2009-04-08, 02:01 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2008
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
Well, I was gonna test "The kitty"'s* scry. It seems that noone else wants to though.
*I'll be giving you all nicknames. They'll probably vaguely relate to your name or avatar. It's so you know I'm not killing you.Avatar by Me!
Recaiden made the mime doll.
Spoiler: Nexus Characters
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2009-04-08, 02:59 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2006
- Location
- Southampton, UK
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
1) Reinholdt, you're a fool.
2) Shadow, I cannot believe you got sucked into the trap of trying to argue with Talic after I avoided it (mostly) on day 1.
3) Lynching Talic is the only way to stop these arguments. As I said before you cannot hold a logical argument with someone who doesn't understand logic.
I can't believe I am seeing Shadow making exactly the same arguments with Talic as I already made. I know Talic is the sort of person who is A) convinced he is right no matter what, and B) Unable to actually consider, let alone understand, other people logical arguments. even so, seeign the same argument unfold AGAIN right before my eyes is amazing.
As for all the people who vote for me, I don't blame you. I almost voted for myself, but think that the greater good demands that we lynch Talic instead. But Reinholdt, I have one thing to suggest, and to all other seers in all other games. Maybe instead of scrying the "big names" and then accidentally lynching someone really (potentially) useful when it turns out you are the fool, how about scrying less potentially useful people and lynching one of them to prove your seerdom - or not.
===========
Can a mason please get in touch. I may have some useful information. Obviously there is a risk if I am a duck. But one mason is the risk and the gain may be worth more.Last edited by Jontom Xire; 2009-04-08 at 03:14 AM.
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2009-04-08, 06:57 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
- Location
- UK
- Gender
Re: Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity
I'm going to completely and utterly ignore all this tactical nonsense and vote for Reinholdt without any forethought or sense whatsoever.
Excellent Elan & Yoshi avatar by Mr Saturn