Witches & Warlocks II: Double Double Toil and Trouble! [Game on!]

[Talic]

Simple. People that avoid bandwagons except when it's an obvious lynching are laying low.

[banjo1985]

I wouldn't be laying low by voting first the day after I helped bandwagon an innocent. Only if I changed my vote afterwards like this:

Aemoh

Seriously, the person who jumped on Eaglewiz's comment seems like the best choice for a lynch to me.

[Jair Barik]

So those who avoid bandwagons are wolves lying low, those that start bandwagons are wolves trying to kill the goodguys and those who join bandwagons are wolves hiding amidst the bandwagon...

Perhaps Happyturtle had the right idea on how to vote in round 1 after all...

[Hyozo]

That reminds me of this post:

Spoiler

Show

*SNIPPED*
That was my second Werewolf game, and I was clueless. I think I'll list off what I've learned since then:
-Murska is always a wolf.
-Murska is frequently not a wolf.
-All wolves point randomly.
-All wolves are bandwagoners.
-Only wolves like to keep a low profile by frequently missing days
-Only villagers get autolynched.
-Shadow usually isn't a wolf, I still shouldn't ever trust him.
-Using petty revenge to determine early votes is meaningless and likely to get me lynched.
-Using petty revenge to determine early votes is better than nothing and therefore a good idea.
-People who claim to be a villager never really are villagers.
-Sometimes people who claim to be a villager really are villagers.
-Wolves don't point at each other on days where it makes a difference.
-Wolves like to point at each other to make it look like they're not on the same side. Since changing points would make them look extremely suspicious, this means that wolves frequently start bandwagons against each other.
-When a wolf is likely to be lynched, other wolves join the bandwagon to throw suspicion off themselves.
-Wolves covet easily defended positions, the easiest of these for them to gain is "I was the vote that pushed that wolf bandwagon into the lead, clearly no wolf would do that."
-Whenever I have a theory which I believe to be worth telling people, it is probably wrong.
-Whenever I have a theory which I do not believe to be worth telling people, it is probably right, and I will probably die before I change my mind.

In other words, I'm still clueless, but at least I won't trust Shadow.

Welcome to Werewolf Jair, please leave your assumptions of anything making sense at the door

[Jair Barik]

I see...

But as I said it seems Happyturtle has the right voting strategy

[Kyouhen]

I see...

But as I said it seems Happyturtle has the right voting strategy

And if someone has the right voting strategy they're clearly a wolf.

[Supagoof]

Off all the information I've received, the person who is making that largest noise again on my supa-analytical-ww-devastation chart, is Lex-Kat.

Alas, I'd offer more analysis, but my post will be quick and short today as I'm heading out of town for the weekend.

[Jair Barik]

I'm inclined to say that rick rolling makes me even more suspicious of you but I'm bigger than that

[Haruki-kun]

Well, I honestly don't know. Although I suppose...

Murska was in contact with a Seer, immediately before that seer's death. Regardless of who he is, that's suspicious. That's quantified. And pretty damning, if you ask me.

And yet it can be stated and corroborated by two different sources, and all we get is "oh, he's kinda suspicious, but that's not a reason to lynch him".

This supports a point I've been making for a long time now (not in this game). Murska's already reached a point in which anyone can say "I suspect Murska" and give you a long list of completely valid reasons only to have the entire village reply with "You suspect Murska? Well, who doesn't?" It's like Shadow all over again.

It would probably be a lot easier to play this game if we weren't so afraid of a few select players.

*points at Murska*

[Murska]

The ONLY argument against me that has any sense whatsoever is the 'The seer knew him and died.'

Now let's take a look at that. I was the ONLY PLAYER in the ENTIRE GAME who was in contact with the seer, and I had also been scried. WHY would I have contacted the masons, linked them with the seer, told everyone that I had been in contact with said seer the day after he died, if I had been a wolf? It makes no sense whatsoever.

And nobody seems to remember the fact that on day one, Bushranger said the fateful words "You do not want to lynch me."

That is like a giant neon sign for the wolves "HAY, VILLAGER POWERROLE".

He didn't die the next night. What does this tell us? It tells us the wolves are cautious, scried him first. Then once they saw he was the seer, they decided that it was worth the risk. And killed him. That is the most logical way the events could have proceeded.

Now, there's a bandwagon on Talic, who's posting analysis, and me, who am a villager powerrole. I don't know who Talic is, and I DO know who I am, so...

[Lex-Kat]

Oops. Forgive me?

[Kyouhen]

I'll go with Murska. Him knowing the Seer right before the seer dies, does make him quite suspicious.

Eh, Murska tends to know people who end up dead. Doesn't always mean he's trying to kill them. Sometimes he is, but not always. I'm going to say he isn't a threat this time around.

[Hyozo]

I'll go with Murska. Him knowing the Seer right before the seer dies, does make him quite suspicious.

Lex, you were already pointing at him. Please don't have two active points at the same person, it confuses people.

This supports a point I've been making for a long time now (not in this game). Murska's already reached a point in which anyone can say "I suspect Murska" and give you a long list of completely valid reasons only to have the entire village reply with "You suspect Murska? Well, who doesn't?" It's like Shadow all over again.

It would probably be a lot easier to play this game if we weren't so afraid of a few select players.

That's not the problem in question. The problem is that there is a single piece of so-called evidence against him, which has already been explained to a point which should be sufficient, but some people refuse to accept it because they assume that, being Murska, he must be lying. His reputation isn't opposing the bandwagon against him, it's the only reason it exists.

[Lex-Kat]

Fixed my previous post.

[Talic]

The ONLY argument against me that has any sense whatsoever is the 'The seer knew him and died.'

Now let's take a look at that. I was the ONLY PLAYER in the ENTIRE GAME who was in contact with the seer, and I had also been scried. WHY would I have contacted the masons, linked them with the seer, told everyone that I had been in contact with said seer the day after he died, if I had been a wolf? It makes no sense whatsoever.

You had been scried. According to you, and unsubstantiated.

And nobody seems to remember the fact that on day one, Bushranger said the fateful words "You do not want to lynch me."

That is like a giant neon sign for the wolves "HAY, VILLAGER POWERROLE".

He didn't die the next night. What does this tell us? It tells us the wolves are cautious, scried him first. Then once they saw he was the seer, they decided that it was worth the risk. And killed him. That is the most logical way the events could have proceeded.

Ah yes, because the completely random initial kill is so much better than the not-completely random Bushranger. Let's look at it from a wolf perspective, shall we? They know that Bushranger and Oddity are both team good. Oddity was one more person on the happy bandwagon, Bushranger threw his vote to the side. Bushranger was a more obvious kill in every way, so why go completely random (best odds: villager) over not? Probably because the wolves feared a bane. Why wouldn't they fear a bane night 2? Insider information is the only reason I can think of. And you were in contact with the seer. You had access to insider information.

Now, there's a bandwagon on Talic, who's posting analysis, and me, who am a villager powerrole. I don't know who Talic is, and I DO know who I am, so...

The problem is... Nobody else knows who you are. I know who I am. And from a few people who have been sending me messages?

I don't know what you are. But I know you're not what you say you are. Between that and your intimate knowledge of the Seer? Means you get my vote until one of us is gone.

[Fleeing Coward]

I've got no problem with you two fighting it out since it means that's one day I don't have to worry about people trying to lynch me for no reason but how about we go for someone that the self proclaimed mason ponted at today instead of turning it into a me or him situation?

I'll stick with my point at Murska for now because Talic defended me yesterday but I'd much rather prefer to see how Supagoof's intuition/analysis is on this matter and point at Lex-Kat.

[Talic]

That's not the problem in question. The problem is that there is a single piece of so-called evidence against him, which has already been explained to a point which should be sufficient, but some people refuse to accept it because they assume that, being Murska, he must be lying. His reputation isn't opposing the bandwagon against him, it's the only reason it exists.

Wrong. If I had stated what Murska stated? I'd have been voted out in a second. Since Murska plays fast and loose, trying to behind the scenes pry as many roles as he can out (if the average player tried this, it would be considered highly suspicious), everyone says "that's just Murska... That CRAAZZZZY Murska".

Last two or three non-Murskas I've seen make that claim (Oh look, Seer's dead, let me say I knew who they were yesterday!) ended up very lynched, very quick. Heck, last time Murska did it, he was lynched pretty quick. As I recall, he was a wolf there too. Only difference is that there, it was a Murska Wolf for a Baner and a Seer.

Note: The only way to refute Murska's status is to have the real toto come forward. But we've seen what happens to real powerroles when they come out in thread. So that Toto would be a fool to do that.

Classic Gambit. One Murska, traded for a Seer and a Voider.

[Fleeing Coward]

This is what I don't get and makes me wonder if it might be better to lynch someone else:
If Murska isn't actually Toto, why hasn't either of the voiders come forward to claim such a fact? If I was Dorothy or Toto, I wouldn't hesitate for a second to come forward to get Murska lynched while the baner is still alive.

[Talic]

Oh. I didn't think about that. The Baner is alive, isn't he? I am SO not used to trusting anyone in this game. It's easier as long as the Baner stays anonymous, I suppose.

In that case, I'm part of the Dorothy/Toto team.

Dorothy and Toto do have special hidden rules for identifying each other. I attempted to identify Murska last night. I didn't get a match.

So that makes things rather simple. By the rules I was given for my role? Murska can't be Toto.

On a side note, whoever the other member of Team Dorothy/Toto is? Please attempt to identify me tonight.

[Fleeing Coward]

That makes things simple then. We lynch Murska today.
If he turns out to be Toto, we lynch Talic tomorrow.
If he turns out to be a wolf, we got a confirmed good role to work with and organise the villagers.

[Murska]

Ah yes, because the completely random initial kill is so much better than the not-completely random Bushranger. Let's look at it from a wolf perspective, shall we? They know that Bushranger and Oddity are both team good. Oddity was one more person on the happy bandwagon, Bushranger threw his vote to the side. Bushranger was a more obvious kill in every way, so why go completely random (best odds: villager) over not? Probably because the wolves feared a bane. Why wouldn't they fear a bane night 2? Insider information is the only reason I can think of. And you were in contact with the seer. You had access to insider information.

Call me stupid, but this makes no sense whatsoever.

Bushranger was an obvious kill night 1. In fact, so obvious that he was also the obvious bane. So the wolves didn't kill him, why? Because they feared he was baned? Okay, so they scried him, he was the seer, now they knew they could void him and make him useless even if he was baned. So it was worth the risk taking him out night 2. That's how I see the most probable way things proceeded. Even though I knew the seer, how would I have had inside information about whether or not he was baned?


And note, that now since it's him or me being lynched and he knows that if I die, he'll die next anyway, he's trying to get me lynched first by making up information. My role PM stated clearly I was Toto(Voider), after that it had the same blurb of fluff as the rules post had and then 'Enjoy'. Nothing about special ways to find my teammate whatsoever. Note how he isn't claiming Dorothy or Toto but rather Dorothy/Toto? Best way for a wolf, of course. He's just making up things not in the rules in order to get people to lynch me first, costing us a powerrole.

[Talic]

Sharing Role PM's isn't allowed in this WW.

However, let me state that I've not been precisely informed whether I was dorothy or toto. The two roles were put together, just as they were in the initial post.

Further, the method for detecting whether or not someone is Dorothy or Toto? Using your ability on them.

Further, you know what really wouldn't make sense? Wolves trading 1 for 1 for any roles other than seer and baner. It kills them in the endgame. I assure you, I have no intent to sacrifice myself.

I can guarantee you that at least one other player now knows you're a liar. I don't want the other voider to come forth though... That would give the Baner too many people to protect.

[Murska]

I can guarantee you that at least one other player now knows you're a liar. I don't want the other voider to come forth though... That would give the Baner too many people to protect.

How convenient. Neither of us wants him to come forth, me since more powerroles in the open is bad and you since he'd out you.

[Fin]

I would tend to agree with Talic on the roles PM business. By the looks of the set-up of the roles list I would have imagined that particular role would state something along the lines of: You are Dororthy/Toto... Because if this isn't the case why are both roles together in the role list.

So Murska, I really did think you were innocent until the role PM business to...

[Murska]

The roles are together because of the obvious reason: They're exactly the same. They're connected, they need to find each other for a part of their win condition, they have exactly the same power. Less writing for the narrator, or copypasteing or whatever. But 'my role name is Dorothy/Toto'? Makes no sense. I'm assuming they're separate for fluff and RP reasons. Otherwise, how would the narrator set the scene if, say, one of them dies and the other survives? Arbitarily pick either one of them to survive?

[Talic]

The roles are together because of the obvious reason: They're exactly the same. They're connected, they need to find each other for a part of their win condition, they have exactly the same power. Less writing for the narrator, or copypasteing or whatever. But 'my role name is Dorothy/Toto'? Makes no sense. I'm assuming they're separate for fluff and RP reasons. Otherwise, how would the narrator set the scene if, say, one of them dies and the other survives? Arbitarily pick either one of them to survive?

Or the creator wrote one PM, and then Copy/Pasted it to save time... Because sending out dozens of PM's is time consuming. Don't ask me why that was done. However, you have demonstrated beyond a shadow of my doubt what you're doing.

Grasping at straws. We've uncovered a rat, and its ship is sinking. This is where you jump at any piece of semantic nonsense, to try to save yourself.

I'm waiting for the near end of day when you admit to being a wolf, and defiantly thumb your nose at us all.

[Murska]

I find it hilarious how my reputation causes yet more trouble... for the villagers. People never trust me at all if I'm actually on their side, and if I'm not, they practically jump at me with information. *shrug*

Anyway. People should make their own minds:

There was no logic whatsoever against me that would hold against a slight breeze, let alone someone actually looking at it.

Talic was nearing lynch and knows he'll be lynched after I do.

So he claimed my role, which I had claimed a long time ago(back on day 1 privately, in-thread yesterday).

Then he made a few posts with some text but no content, and still no other proof against me than the fact that he claims to be me, along with some made-up rules.

Now, I know if I die, he'll be lynched anyway, but I'd rather leave killing me for the wolves. Your call.

[Talic]

Except the wolves won't kill you. Honor among thieves, and all that.

I pm'd that I was a voider shortly after you made the claim. While I don't typically do as much, I took that gambit because I knew I needed to have some sort of network to rely on, with you gunning for me, and someone had a high chance of being a mason, based on thread information. He's since come out as a mason, and hasn't been refuted.

Let's look at evidence.

Against me: You claimed to me that you knew I wasn't a mason based on mason testimony, and that was your "suspicion". Quite true. I'm not a mason. I'm a villager power role, but not a mason.

Against you: You ferreted roles out of others behind the scenes. You knew the Seer the day before he died. And the only person who can verify that? Is dead.

You've claimed power role. You claim time and again that there's no evidence against him.

I don't know... I see evidence.

[Allysian]

Murska. For the stuff lots of other people (like, two) said.

[Murska]

Except the wolves won't kill you. Honor among thieves, and all that.

I pm'd that I was a voider shortly after you made the claim. While I don't typically do as much, I took that gambit because I knew I needed to have some sort of network to rely on, with you gunning for me, and someone had a high chance of being a mason, based on thread information. He's since come out as a mason, and hasn't been refuted.

Let's look at evidence.

Against me: You claimed to me that you knew I wasn't a mason based on mason testimony, and that was your "suspicion". Quite true. I'm not a mason. I'm a villager power role, but not a mason.

Against you: You ferreted roles out of others behind the scenes. You knew the Seer the day before he died. And the only person who can verify that? Is dead.

You've claimed power role. You claim time and again that there's no evidence against him.

I don't know... I see evidence.

Well, it won't matter anymore but again, there is no evidence there.

Against you:
You falsely claimed my role after I had done so to avoid being lynched and to get me lynched instead.

Against me:
I've gotten a single role out of a single person behind the scenes. That person, who claimed mason and has been proven by Supagoof, is not, in fact, dead.

I knew the seer, I told that to everyone, I helped the seer, connected him to the masons and he got killed because he claimed a powerrole in-thread. Your suspicion of me here is based on me somehow also knowing the baner and knowing that the seer wasn't baned, which, frankly, makes no sense since the baner isn't dead AND you came out in the open 'because the baner is still alive'.

I don't mind getting lynched, I don't mind getting lynched by logic nor do I mind getting lynched for no reason but I do mind getting lynched by no reason falsely disguised as logic.


EDIT: I have proof Talic is a liar.

Murska.
No more agruments. No more long posts.