Werewolf Classic XII Part 2

[Qwaz]

I'm almost beginning to wonder why we needed a Seer.

[VA_beds]

someone call the humane society...we are definately being cruel to animals in this thread

[Lex-Kat]

Hilarious.

[Kyrian]

someone call the humane society...we are definately being cruel to animals in this thread

I about got Mt. Dew all over my laptop while reading this...

[billtodamax]

>.>

<.<

The village is GODLY, somebody kill them!

[Qwaz]

>.>

<.<

The village is GODLY, somebody kill them!

Hey! You're meant to be one of our cheerleaders!

I know Thufir said you hold no grudges in the afterlife but do you lose your sense of identity too?

[billtodamax]

Hey, I never went to the afterlife!

I'm a zombie. *nods*

[Thufir]

Do not think that you may hide, you who stay in the background and try to pull the strings of your fellow men. We shall find you, and we shall kill you, one by one until no-one is left to lead your comrades but us. Take this one. He looked at us in a funny way, and we would not have it. Now he is dead, and the rest of you shall follow him all.

"This looks grimmer by the night for humanity."
"And yet it might all be bluff and bluster. It all depends on the number of werewolves who remain to plague them."

Summary: madeyegeorge was killed. He was a Villager.
Day 20 begins now and ends in approximately 48 hours.

At risk of autolynch:
Duneyrr
Kyrian
Andre Fairchilde
Mtheminja

[Rogue Nine]

Hey, I never went to the afterlife!

I'm a zombie Wight. *nods*

Fixed that for you.

[billtodamax]

*eats Zanshin's brains*

*casually peruses link*

[Rogue Nine]

See, it's a Pune, or play on words. You are a white-faced mime, so when undead, you would be a Wight.

[Andre Fairchilde]

Lex-kat (what - no editing here, look away from the curtain! Lex - sorry! I knew better! It's been a few months for me - forgive me!)

[INSERT WITTY ROLE PLAY HERE]

[Kyrian]

Lex-Cat

Pst. Andre? Why are we a pointing at Lex? I mean, aside from Lex's desire to crush Superman and all. And that Wal-Mart seems to believe that I am indeed superman...

*looks down at blue shirt*
Nope, no big red S. Maybe I just don't have a S yet, how about I try taking off my glasses...

*takes off glasses*

Nope, now I just can't see...

[Andre Fairchilde]

(Because the third person that votes for Lex-cat is a wolf, and then we lynch him/her/gender unknown or undefined. It's a trick.)

[Lex-Kat]

I say.... cd4. Because he's not me.

[Leta]

Duneyrr, for now. I'll try to sort this out and I'll probably change my point later.

Hmm, so madeye was a villager after all? That's... kinda strange.

[Ghanz Nmi]

After some consideration... I'm fine with Lex-Kat today.

[Qwaz]

CD4. This is your life. Well, your first four days pointing of it anyway

Days 1-4
Project Mayhem: Wolf
Matt K: Wolf
Imperial Psycho: Wolf
Annon: Wolf

Odds of pointing a 4 different wolves by blind guessing alone if you're a villager...0.4%-0.5%.

Spoiler

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(14/54)*(13/51)*(12/48)*(11/45)

Assuming 14 wolves from 54 players. The first 6 deaths all villagers and needing to hit different wolves.

Odds slightly higher if you're extremely good at judging the posts and outthinking the wolves.

Best bet...4 legs, 1 tail & a whole lot of fur.

So CD4...You're a wolf right?

[razovor]

This Wolf seems to be a popular guy today.

[Ramsus]

This Wolf seems to be a popular guy today.

Oh man, you're telling me we could have just voted for the wolf all along? Geez what have we been throwing away our lives for?

[Imperial Psycho]

The Wolf was killed. He was a Villager

[cd4]

CD4. This is your life. Well, your first four days pointing of it anyway

Days 1-4
Project Mayhem: Wolf
Matt K: Wolf
Imperial Psycho: Wolf
Annon: Wolf

Odds of pointing a 4 different wolves by blind guessing alone if you're a villager...0.4%-0.5%.

Spoiler

Show

(14/54)*(13/51)*(12/48)*(11/45)

Assuming 14 wolves from 54 players. The first 6 deaths all villagers and needing to hit different wolves.

Odds slightly higher if you're extremely good at judging the posts and outthinking the wolves.

Best bet...4 legs, 1 tail & a whole lot of fur.

So CD4...You're a wolf right?

I cannot fault your maths and I agree that it is unlikely to happen to a specific person but if everyone voted randomly there would be a 47.3% chance that at least one person would manage to hit 4 different wolves on the first four days and it happened to me as a villager.

Maths:

Spoiler

Show

(1-0.4)^54 ~ 53.7% is chance of not getting this ability so 47.3% of someone getting this ability.

However if you look futher in the voting: I have voted for 1 mason, 2 unknown, 2 Villagers and 15 Wolves.

For today I will point at Lex-kat because she is not me.

[GrlumpTheElder]

For today I will point at Lex-kat because she is not me.

Still a little late in the game for dismissive votes. Mine's for cd4

[razovor]

Must...correct... maths... soo ...hard ... to...resist...

[Andre Fairchilde]

Qwarz - although I love the logic - (LOVE IT)

The statistics are still:
(1 / number of werewolves)
(Village Population) - (Number of werewolves)

CALLING ALL MATHAMAGICIANS to verify
EDIT NOTE: These stats are also infLenced by bandwagon voting. I haven't looked, but if these votes were counter to the bandwagon then they may have more meaning than if they didn't. Unless they don't.

If it's a 1/4 chance of hitting a werewolf - it's a 1 in 4 chance of hitting a werewolf - every day.

However (if the odds were 1/4) - the 1/32 chance of hitting 4 consecutive wolves either means he's a better player than me, and must die, or a wolf, and must die.

And he's not me.

CD4

Other people's logic is the best logic, especially if I joined a game with a bajillion autolynch replacements, have no network, and have nothing but drive,good looks, determination, and good looks going for me.

Lex-kat - change your name for Loki's sake. It'll preserve the tiniest bit of my sanity and dignity. Do it for my children. Think of my children. You don't like my children?

(Points at my eyes and then at Lex-kat) I'm watching you you my child not liker.

[Leta]

The sample size is only 4, so it's not totally conclusive. But I'm getting only an 0.0039 probability of doing what cd4 did.

Hmm... shouldn't we go for the sure thing today and just vote for the Wolf?

Spoiler

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Assuming that proportion of wolves=0.25. The probability of selecting a wolf randomly would also be 0.25. I'm not going to bother to adjust for the fact that people are removed from the game, because it wouldn't change the numbers TOO much. 0.25*0.25*0.25*0.25= about 0.0039.

In all seriousness- I'll go with cd4 as long as nothing better presents itself.

[Mtheminja]

I cannot fault your maths and I agree that it is unlikely to happen to a specific person but if everyone voted randomly there would be a 47.3% chance that at least one person would manage to hit 4 different wolves on the first four days and it happened to me as a villager.

Maths:

Spoiler

Show

(1-0.4)^54 ~ 53.7% is chance of not getting this ability so 47.3% of someone getting this ability.

However if you look futher in the voting: I have voted for 1 mason, 2 unknown, 2 Villagers and 15 Wolves.

For today I will point at Lex-kat because she is not me.

'MATHAMAGICIAN' here; nice try, but definitely wrong. This seems much more like a wolf trying to get away with misleading us than just cd4 getting the numbers wrong. Leta is right, a villager's chances of doing what he did would be roughly 0.004; he seems to be calculating the chance (incorrectly) that ANYBODY could randomly go for 4 wolves in a game start, which is a fairly meaningless number with respect to how much his wolf chances are raised by his accuracy. Even if you throw in conditional probabilities, the numbers point very much to cd4 being a wolf that hoped some of those wolves would be lynched, making him look good, and not counting on us being generally awesome and getting all of them. (Also, yeah, it's not 1/32, Andre...)

[Andre Fairchilde]

This would work easier if we knew one of the populations.

@ Thufir - How many starting wolves were there? We're trying to do math here.

[Qwaz]

That's info we aren't supposed to know.

I assumed 25%. 13.5/54...rounded up to 14 wolves.

Like mtheminja & CD4 said. The odds of anyone doing it may be close to 50% but the odds of CD4 doing it are less than 0.5%.

I realise that wagons etc throw things off which is why i think the first 4 days, where there was a lot of "random" points, is actually the most telling part of all this.

If you are a villager you can feel comforted that the odds of this happening to you again are less than half a percent

[Andre Fairchilde]

That's info we aren't supposed to know.

You must not know me very well.

Why do you have something to hide?