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Thread: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
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2010-12-08, 02:56 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2010
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2010-12-08, 05:34 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2010
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
someone call the humane society...we are definately being cruel to animals in this thread
This message was approved in Triplicate by Bureaucrat #36---please submit Form 16-j-43 before reading
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2010-12-08, 07:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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- In the shadows
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2010-12-08, 10:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2005
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- Indianapolis, IN
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2010-12-08, 10:05 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
>.>
<.<
The village is GODLY, somebody kill them!Avatar by Me!
Recaiden made the mime doll.
Spoiler: Nexus Characters
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2010-12-09, 12:37 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2010
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
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2010-12-09, 12:38 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Hey, I never went to the afterlife!
I'm a zombie. *nods*Avatar by Me!
Recaiden made the mime doll.
Spoiler: Nexus Characters
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2010-12-10, 06:45 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Mar 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Originally Posted by Message from the wolves:
"And yet it might all be bluff and bluster. It all depends on the number of werewolves who remain to plague them."
Summary: madeyegeorge was killed. He was a Villager.At risk of autolynch:
Day 20 begins now and ends in approximately 48 hours.
Duneyrr
Kyrian
Andre Fairchilde
Mtheminja"'But there's still such a lot to be done...'
YES. THERE ALWAYS IS."
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2010-12-10, 12:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2010
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- Milliways
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Shots rang out, as shots are wont to do.
Top Narrations/Deaths featuring myself (in no particular order):
1. Saved by the Konami code!
2. Wait, I was an android?
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2010-12-10, 03:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
*eats Zanshin's brains*
*casually peruses link*Avatar by Me!
Recaiden made the mime doll.
Spoiler: Nexus Characters
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2010-12-10, 07:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2010
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- Milliways
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
See, it's a Pune, or play on words. You are a white-faced mime, so when undead, you would be a Wight.
Shots rang out, as shots are wont to do.
Top Narrations/Deaths featuring myself (in no particular order):
1. Saved by the Konami code!
2. Wait, I was an android?
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2010-12-10, 07:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2006
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- Minnesota
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Lex-kat(what - no editing here, look away from the curtain! Lex - sorry! I knew better! It's been a few months for me - forgive me!)
[INSERT WITTY ROLE PLAY HERE]Last edited by Andre Fairchilde; 2010-12-11 at 09:58 AM.
"see the little angels rise up high, how do they rise up, rise up, how do they rise up high?"
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2010-12-10, 09:13 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2005
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- Indianapolis, IN
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Lex-Cat
Pst. Andre? Why are we a pointing at Lex? I mean, aside from Lex's desire to crush Superman and all. And that Wal-Mart seems to believe that I am indeed superman...
*looks down at blue shirt*
Nope, no big red S. Maybe I just don't have a S yet, how about I try taking off my glasses...
*takes off glasses*
Nope, now I just can't see...SpoilerPart of II.I.
Legionary of Valor
Inner Circle
OOC Mafioso
I'm back! Sorta. Not really. Kinda though.
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2010-12-10, 09:17 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2006
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- Minnesota
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
(Because the third person that votes for Lex-cat is a wolf, and then we lynch him/her/gender unknown or undefined. It's a trick.)
"see the little angels rise up high, how do they rise up, rise up, how do they rise up high?"
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2010-12-10, 10:09 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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- In the shadows
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2010-12-10, 10:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Duneyrr, for now. I'll try to sort this out and I'll probably change my point later.
Hmm, so madeye was a villager after all? That's... kinda strange.Last edited by Leta; 2010-12-11 at 12:24 PM.
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2010-12-10, 11:20 PM (ISO 8601)Ghanz NmiGuest in the Playground
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
After some consideration... I'm fine with Lex-Kat today.
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2010-12-11, 01:03 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2010
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
CD4. This is your life. Well, your first four days pointing of it anyway
Days 1-4
Project Mayhem: Wolf
Matt K: Wolf
Imperial Psycho: Wolf
Annon: Wolf
Odds of pointing a 4 different wolves by blind guessing alone if you're a villager...0.4%-0.5%.
Spoiler(14/54)*(13/51)*(12/48)*(11/45)
Assuming 14 wolves from 54 players. The first 6 deaths all villagers and needing to hit different wolves.
Odds slightly higher if you're extremely good at judging the posts and outthinking the wolves.
Best bet...4 legs, 1 tail & a whole lot of fur.
So CD4...You're a wolf right?Last edited by Qwaz; 2010-12-11 at 04:34 AM.
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2010-12-11, 05:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2010
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- England
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
This Wolf seems to be a popular guy today.
Last edited by razovor; 2010-12-11 at 05:51 AM.
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2010-12-11, 06:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2010
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
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2010-12-11, 06:40 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2010
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- Great Britain
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
The Wolf was killed. He was a Villager
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2010-12-11, 09:08 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2008
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
I cannot fault your maths and I agree that it is unlikely to happen to a specific person but if everyone voted randomly there would be a 47.3% chance that at least one person would manage to hit 4 different wolves on the first four days and it happened to me as a villager.
Maths:
Spoiler(1-0.4)^54 ~ 53.7% is chance of not getting this ability so 47.3% of someone getting this ability.
However if you look futher in the voting: I have voted for 1 mason, 2 unknown, 2 Villagers and 15 Wolves.
For today I will point at Lex-kat because she is not me.
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2010-12-11, 09:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2009
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- This Sceptred Isle
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Grlump the Elder, a Lvl. 5 Gnome Barbarian with a penchant for food.
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2010-12-11, 09:57 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2010
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- England
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Must...correct... maths... soo ...hard ... to...resist...
Last edited by razovor; 2010-12-11 at 09:57 AM.
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2010-12-11, 09:58 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2006
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- Minnesota
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
Qwarz - although I love the logic - (LOVE IT)
The statistics are still:
(1 / number of werewolves)
(Village Population) - (Number of werewolves)
CALLING ALL MATHAMAGICIANS to verify
EDIT NOTE: These stats are also infLenced by bandwagon voting. I haven't looked, but if these votes were counter to the bandwagon then they may have more meaning than if they didn't. Unless they don't.
If it's a 1/4 chance of hitting a werewolf - it's a 1 in 4 chance of hitting a werewolf - every day.
However (if the odds were 1/4) - the 1/32 chance of hitting 4 consecutive wolves either means he's a better player than me, and must die, or a wolf, and must die.
And he's not me.
CD4
Other people's logic is the best logic, especially if I joined a game with a bajillion autolynch replacements, have no network, and have nothing but drive,good looks, determination, and good looks going for me.
Lex-kat - change your name for Loki's sake. It'll preserve the tiniest bit of my sanity and dignity. Do it for my children. Think of my children. You don't like my children?
(Points at my eyes and then at Lex-kat) I'm watching you you my child not liker.Last edited by Andre Fairchilde; 2010-12-11 at 10:04 AM.
"see the little angels rise up high, how do they rise up, rise up, how do they rise up high?"
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2010-12-11, 12:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2008
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Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
The sample size is only 4, so it's not totally conclusive. But I'm getting only an 0.0039 probability of doing what cd4 did.
Hmm... shouldn't we go for the sure thing today and just vote for theWolf?
SpoilerAssuming that proportion of wolves=0.25. The probability of selecting a wolf randomly would also be 0.25. I'm not going to bother to adjust for the fact that people are removed from the game, because it wouldn't change the numbers TOO much. 0.25*0.25*0.25*0.25= about 0.0039.
In all seriousness- I'll go with cd4 as long as nothing better presents itself.Last edited by Leta; 2010-12-11 at 12:26 PM.
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2010-12-11, 12:55 PM (ISO 8601)MtheminjaGuest in the Playground
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
'MATHAMAGICIAN' here; nice try, but definitely wrong. This seems much more like a wolf trying to get away with misleading us than just cd4 getting the numbers wrong. Leta is right, a villager's chances of doing what he did would be roughly 0.004; he seems to be calculating the chance (incorrectly) that ANYBODY could randomly go for 4 wolves in a game start, which is a fairly meaningless number with respect to how much his wolf chances are raised by his accuracy. Even if you throw in conditional probabilities, the numbers point very much to cd4 being a wolf that hoped some of those wolves would be lynched, making him look good, and not counting on us being generally awesome and getting all of them. (Also, yeah, it's not 1/32, Andre...)
Last edited by Mtheminja; 2010-12-11 at 12:57 PM.
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2010-12-11, 06:56 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2006
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- Minnesota
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
This would work easier if we knew one of the populations.
@ Thufir - How many starting wolves were there? We're trying to do math here."see the little angels rise up high, how do they rise up, rise up, how do they rise up high?"
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2010-12-11, 07:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2010
Re: Werewolf Classic XII Part 2
That's info we aren't supposed to know.
I assumed 25%. 13.5/54...rounded up to 14 wolves.
Like mtheminja & CD4 said. The odds of anyone doing it may be close to 50% but the odds of CD4 doing it are less than 0.5%.
I realise that wagons etc throw things off which is why i think the first 4 days, where there was a lot of "random" points, is actually the most telling part of all this.
If you are a villager you can feel comforted that the odds of this happening to you again are less than half a percentLast edited by Qwaz; 2010-12-11 at 07:48 PM.
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2010-12-11, 08:17 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2006
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- Minnesota