Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

[Eternal Drifter]

I don't think we should NOT kill someone tonight, I just didn't have my notes at the time I changed to no vote. We still have 24 hours until the lynch deadline.

If we eliminate Ramsus, then the next most suspicious person, based on voting patterns, is Eternal Drifter. It is not much, but he has not pointed at any known Witches, nor has he been on ANY lynch-wagons- good or bad guys included.

*Cough*

I have a good reason for acting as I have this time around. I won't say more here, but let's just say I can turn the game around if I choose to. And in the town's favor too. I can't say more than that without getting the Werewolf onto me, though.

[CitizenFry]

If we don't believe Ramsus' spyclaim, we lynch him. (Right?)

If we DO believe Ramsus' spyclaim, the Junior Witch is
a) a nightkill: Sotek or Murska
b) a daykill: Qwaz, VA_beds, or Irbis. Medium (Zanshin?) can inform us if this is the case
c) still alive.

I find it super unlikely that Murska was the Junior Witch, the odds of everything shaking out the way it did seem super small. If we already lynched the Junior Witch, I think Zanshin should tell us that fact? And if the Junior Witch is still alive, we should lynch Ramsus anyway just so the nightkill doesn't pierce protection.

So, I think all worlds boil down to "we should lynch Ramsus", or "Sotek was Junior Witch", or "Murska needs to tell us the Junior Witch is dead".

Thoughts?

[Ramsus]

If byers said Sotek was the priest, why were the witches so gung-ho about killing Murska

Because he is Murska and wasn't a witch is basically the answer.

Ok Eternal Drifter is a reasonable target based on that logic.

[Ramsus]

Fry...so we should sacrifice town being protected from a wolf victory because....it would stop a single unstoppable kill from happening? That's not exactly a strong argument.

[CitizenFry]

Obviously there is a typo there where it should say "Zanshin" or "Medium" instead of "Murska"

[CitizenFry]

Fry...so we should sacrifice town being protected from a wolf victory because....it would stop a single unstoppable kill from happening? That's not exactly a strong argument.

If the JW is alive, we AREN'T protected from a wolf victory. If the JW is dead, we should know that fact (or have it down to just Sotek, and we can try to look at his posts and maybe figure it out?).

[Rogue Nine]

*Cough*

I have a good reason for acting as I have this time around. I won't say more here, but let's just say I can turn the game around if I choose to. And in the town's favor too. I can't say more than that without getting the Werewolf onto me, though.

Okay, I'll give you that. But answer one question for me before I'll move my vote if you please: Who has the biggest chance of being the WW in your opinion?

[Rogue Nine]

If we don't believe Ramsus' spyclaim, we lynch him. (Right?)

If we DO believe Ramsus' spyclaim, the Junior Witch is
a) a nightkill: Sotek or Murska
b) a daykill: Qwaz, VA_beds, or Irbis. Medium (Zanshin?) can inform us if this is the case
c) still alive.

I find it super unlikely that Murska was the Junior Witch, the odds of everything shaking out the way it did seem super small. If we already lynched the Junior Witch, I think Zanshin should tell us that fact? And if the Junior Witch is still alive, we should lynch Ramsus anyway just so the nightkill doesn't pierce protection.

So, I think all worlds boil down to "we should lynch Ramsus", or "Sotek was Junior Witch", or "Murska needs to tell us the Junior Witch is dead".

Thoughts?

Yeah, I mentioned all the witches that I knew were dead. I'm not mentioning the Innocent deaths unless it's important to our win- if someone claims a dead role, I'll be sure to let everyone know.

[Eternal Drifter]

Okay, I'll give you that. But answer one question for me before I'll move my vote if you please: Who has the biggest chance of being the WW in your opinion?

My first guess was Internet Flea, due to him claiming Werewolf day one. He shattered that theory a few days later. (LEEEERRRROOOOY.... JENKINS!)

My second guess, looking back, would have been Sotek. Played somewhat similarly to the first game I had with him, but I don't have any large tells on him: he died night one.

My third guess... would have been you Zanshin, but your Medium claim finished that.

CitizenFry is my best guess now, though. The problem is that I'm not really picking up any Werewolf trails right now. He's making himself indespencible with those tallies, with Sotek dead. So consider this point a half-hearted one.

A couple of factors...

Those with vote-tallies may have something to hide. Sotek did first game here, and fooled the spy/devil into thinking he was the priest until he devoured the nun.
Those playing may have few, if any, tells of scum. Meaning that those that are scum are doing their job well.
And one more factor: you can't find scum when your senses are dulled by tiredness, except when a devour makes the town one nun short. I'll look in when I get home from school tomorrow.

[CitizenFry]

vote tally:

Spoiler

Show

Lynch votes: (9 alive, 5 is majority)
Ramsus: 1 (CitizenFry)
Eternal Drifter: 2 (Zanshin, Ramsus)
CitizenFry: 1 (Eternal Drifter)
(null): 5 (Onime-no-Enishi, Leta, seraine, Mannikath, Tydude)

Alive guys:
Tydude, Ramsus, Zanshin, Mannikath, Onime-no-Enishi, Leta, CitizenFry, seraine, Eternal Drifter

Dead guys:
Hipen3 (D1), Orzel (N1), Sotek (N1), Qwaz (D2), byers2142 (D3), Istari (N3-martyr'd), Horoar (D4* judgelynch), Murska (N4), Interneeeeeet Flea (D5-Leeroy'd), VA_beds (D5), Irbis (D6), Crunchy English (N6)

Day ends: approximately 11:00 pm eastern Feb 18

[Leta]

I've been suspicious of Citizen Fry for a while, but something about Eternal Drifter's logic seems... off to me.

So I'll go with Eternal Drifter.

[CitizenFry]

Ramsus, your claim is Spy-Demon, right? I would like to know exactly what you told the other witches as far as priest checks were concerned.

[Mannikath]

Wait what.

Why are we killing anyone?

There is no reason to kill anyone while we wait to see if Ramsus was telling the truth. There is no pressure at all. What's the JW and WW going to do, shake their fist at us angrily from the shadows? What's Ramsus going to do if he's a witch, kill someone and blow his story?

Fact: Night kills are over until either JW joins (which we can't stop) or we decide to resume them.

Ramsus, if anyone dies tonight, you are lynched. Period, no exceptions.

[Rogue Nine]

Change back to no vote then.

Question to everyone. Given the assumptions that:

-Ramsus is the Spy and the only living witch is the JW
and
-The Spiritualist and Priest are most likely dead

at this point, what is the best way to find the WW?

[CitizenFry]

The two options, as far as I'm concerned, are "lynch Ramsus" and "no lynch, no judge lynch". Anything other than those is just wrong.

I think it is quite possible that both evil Junior Witch and evil Warlock are still alive (Ramsus being one of them, obv), AND Werewolf is still alive. Aren't we pretty hosed in that world if we don't lynch?

[CitizenFry]

There is no reason to kill anyone while we wait to see if Ramsus was telling the truth. There is no pressure at all. What's the JW and WW going to do, shake their fist at us angrily from the shadows? What's Ramsus going to do if he's a witch, kill someone and blow his story?

If Ramsus is the Warlock and we don't lynch today, he gets one kill tonight, then another kill tomorrow while we're lynching him. There's also a possible evil Junior Witch floating around somewhere that will get a least one more kill after that. That is an awful lot of opportunities for the DOB to get randakilled and not have any info to use to target the werewolf.

[Mannikath]

If Ramsus is the Warlock and we don't lynch today, he gets one kill tonight, then another kill tomorrow while we're lynching him. There's also a possible evil Junior Witch floating around somewhere that will get a least one more kill after that. That is an awful lot of opportunities for the DOB to get randakilled and not have any info to use to target the werewolf.

By this argument killing anyone but Ramsus is even worse, which I guess is consistent with your vote.

I really don't see the rush. Why not give him the chance to prove he's the Spy or at least willing to pretend? What possible cost is there to this?

Oh no, he might just kill someone. This might be a problem if the Witches weren't otherwise dead in many universes.

[CitizenFry]

By this argument killing anyone but Ramsus is even worse, which I guess is consistent with your vote.

I really don't see the rush. Why not give him the chance to prove he's the Spy or at least willing to pretend? What possible cost is there to this?

Oh no, he might just kill someone. This might be a problem if the Witches weren't otherwise dead in many universes.

If I didn't have you down as "confirmed town" I would be raging so hard right now. What cost is there to letting Witch-Ramsus live, "oh no, he might kill someone" aka THE THING THAT MAKES SCUM WIN! Again, allow me to reiterate:

World 1: Ramsus is a witch, lynching him is good
World 2: Ramsus is spy, Junior Witch is still alive, Ramsus is dead anyway!
World 3: Ramsus is spy, Junior Witch is dead...oops?

The chance that we are in World 3 is very slim in my estimation, and even if we ARE in that world, we're still hugely favored to win, because all of the witches are dead! If we lynch Ramsus, there's a small chance we lose value, there's a pretty big chance we gain a tiny amount of value, and there's a decent chance we gain a lot of value! Lynching Ramsus is the +ev play here.

[Tydude]

CitizenFry, are you the WW? Because you sound an awful lot like the WW....

[Eternal Drifter]

CitizenFry, are you the WW? Because you sound an awful lot like the WW....

I second this question. In the time it took me to get through the school day, my 'unseeing' has worked its way out of my eyes... and then I get a bunch of questionable comments from CitizenFry.

CitizenFry is now my number one Werewolf suspect.

[Rogue Nine]

If I didn't have you down as "confirmed town" I would be raging so hard right now. What cost is there to letting Witch-Ramsus live, "oh no, he might kill someone" aka THE THING THAT MAKES SCUM WIN! Again, allow me to reiterate:

World 1: Ramsus is a witch, lynching him is good
World 2: Ramsus is spy, Junior Witch is still alive, Ramsus is dead anyway!
World 3: Ramsus is spy, Junior Witch is dead...oops?

The chance that we are in World 3 is very slim in my estimation, and even if we ARE in that world, we're still hugely favored to win, because all of the witches are dead! If we lynch Ramsus, there's a small chance we lose value, there's a pretty big chance we gain a tiny amount of value, and there's a decent chance we gain a lot of value! Lynching Ramsus is the +ev play here.

My alarms just went off BAD. I have a huge hunch CitizenFry is the Werewolf. He is trying really hard to get us to possibly lynch our only Spy claimant since it could be better for Town. A spy controlling the Night Kills is the Werewolf's biggest threat- even if he devours the DOB, he cannot do ANYTHING to the spy, except try and have Town lynch him.

[Rogue Nine]

CitizenFry, are you the WW? Because you sound an awful lot like the WW....

I second this question. In the time it took me to get through the school day, my 'unseeing' has worked its way out of my eyes... and then I get a bunch of questionable comments from CitizenFry.

CitizenFry is now my number one Werewolf suspect.

I'm glad other people agree, even if they ninja'd my post.

[Ramsus]

As for what I said the scries were....yeah only night 1 did anyone even ask. *checks logs* Yeah, I claimed the priest scried Qwaz. Otherwise they were too preoccupied with other trains of thought to ask me.

Well I'll take my point off Eternal Drifter and put it on CitizenFry. (I'm glad you guys are finally seeing what I see and I'm not just crazy or something.)

The game isn't exactly going to progress in any manner good for anyone but the WW if we don't lynch or night kill so I'm not sure what a day of twiddling our thumbs gets us. I know Mannikath said I'd get lynched if I kill tomorrow but if Fry is the WW I have a feeling he'll start devouring tomorrow whether or not we lynch him. I still won't do it without approval but...yeah.

[Ramsus]

Yeah..... by tomorrow I meant tonight concerning the NK.

[CitizenFry]

So what all three of you (Tydude, Zanshin, Eternal Drifter) are saying is that you think we are in World 3 (Ramsus spy, dead JW = Sotek)?

Theoretically, if I was the Werewolf, and we are in World 3, yes I do have to get town to kill Ramsus. You know what else I would have to do? I have to correctly guess which of the SEVEN remaining townies is the DOB. In one try. I am pretty sure my chances would be way better if there were still witches running around killing people (aka Worlds 1 and 2). (end "If I was Werewolf" theory)

As town, here is my math:
World 1: Ramsus is evil (80% we are in this world, based on reads)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 30% -> 15%, Wolf 20% -> 15%, Town 50% -> 70%

World 2: Ramsus spy, JW alive (15% we are in this world)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 15% -> Witch 14%, Wolf 15% -> Wolf 15%, Town 70% -> Town 71%

World 3: Ramsus spy, JW dead (5% we are in this world)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 0% -> 0%, Wolf 0% -> 20%, Town 100% -> 80%

Assuming the above numbers, and that I haven't failed at probability, when I aggregate all worlds, I get
no lynch: Town wins .8*.5 + .15*.70 + .05*1 = 55.5%
lynch Ramsus: Town wins .8*.7 + .15*.71 + .05*.8 = 70.65%

If you think Ramsus is significantly less likely than 80% to be evil, the math swings towards being pretty even as far as whether or not there is a benefit to town for lynching Ramsus. Admittedly, that's a reasonable assumption to make, and now that I've actually looked at some math I don't feel like I need to rage at people who want to no-lynch here, as town chances are much closer either way from such a perspective.

[Rogue Nine]

No, I for one believe we are in a situation where the JW is alive, but is less of a threat than the WW.

Why? Because as soon as the JW joins the Witches, Ramsus just has to be the first to vote for the NK, either as a sac or a no kill. Since the Witches go off of plurality vote, the first one to get the highest votes is the winner. So he sacs the JW and we've won, or he does a no kill, and we lynch the JW the next day.

[Tydude]

No, I for one believe we are in a situation where the JW is alive, but is less of a threat than the WW.

Why? Because as soon as the JW joins the Witches, Ramsus just has to be the first to vote for the NK, either as a sac or a no kill. Since the Witches go off of plurality vote, the first one to get the highest votes is the winner. So he sacs the JW and we've won, or he does a no kill, and we lynch the JW the next day.

Sorry, but spy loses 1 vs 1 votes against him. From here:

and remember that the Spy will lose all 1v1 Witch Votes against him

[Ramsus]

Fry, those are some very nice maths. I mean, really, very nice. Totally manages to fool the reader that you pulled the chances of 80%, 15%, and 5% out of nowhere. Really, just, very very nice. Oh and it was also very clever of you to make the arbitrary assumption that the DOB is still alive.

Glad I refreshed in time to see Tydude's post, yeah I can't sac the JW.

[seraine]

Hmm... I think I will stay with no vote right now. Citizen Fry's math seems suspicious, and trying to get the possible spy lynched seems wolfy.

[CitizenFry]

Fry, those are some very nice maths. I mean, really, very nice. Totally manages to fool the reader that you pulled the chances of 80%, 15%, and 5% out of nowhere. Really, just, very very nice. Oh and it was also very clever of you to make the arbitrary assumption that the DOB is still alive.

Glad I refreshed in time to see Tydude's post, yeah I can't sac the JW.

And it's pretty idiotic of you to think there's any chance the DOB is dead.