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  1. - Top - End - #211
    Onime-no-Enishi
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    bleh i just read through my previous post and found that it partially didnt make sense >>; im playing at work, lol.

    I hope the message gets through though. If it doesnt, just ask ill clarify.

  2. - Top - End - #212
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Sotek View Post
    I mean all three. They're from the various bandwagons - each set is from each separate bandwagon.
    Ok, that makes sense, then. For some reason, I read them as either-or statements. Either the first grouping, or the second, or the third. So, given your analysis and the non-coven assumption, you're saying the top four coven suspects are Crunchy English, Tydude, myself, and Hipen3, in that order, but with the speed of these bandwagons coming and going it makes analysis difficult.

    Like I said, I read through Day One of the previous game, and I know what the usual practice is. Put pressure on each of us, and see what we say. But the last game took 26 bloody pages to get to that point; why don't we save everyone the trouble? CitizenFry is on the hook now, and us four are likely coming up. Can we assume you've put pressure on all of us, right now, and give our reasons for what we've said and done thus far? If one of us doesn't comply, we can go through with pointing up to L-2 on that person and then make them talk or face the lynch, but let's save the time of having to swing bandwagons one way or another.

    I'll go first. I said before I don't like jumping votes in a given day, and I don't. But after IF's comment about that's how it works and reading through the previous game's board, I can see how it's necessary. So I pointed at those that were high in votes at that moment to put pressure on them and see if they reveal anything. Wasn't expecting all of the answers we got, but them's the breaks.

    As for my role, I won't trueclaim and make myself a target for the WW, but I won't fakeclaim either. Fakeclaim is something either a witch or a skilled player would do, and I'm not either. What I will say is that my role is of only marginal importance now, but as we move into the middle and late game, I can see it being much more valuable. Or being completely worthless, depending on who is still alive and how accurate our role guesses have gotten at that point. If it comes down to lynch of myself versus a role like the Priest or the D.O.B., the lynch should be made on me. I'll happily join the choir of Guardian Angels and play my part up there as a baner.

    So there you go. Any of the others willing to step up to the plate, or do we really need twelve more pages of bandwagons swinging left and right?
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  3. - Top - End - #213
    Sotek
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Onime-no-Enishi View Post
    Also, I do not get Sotek's logic on whos scummy and whos not >.< mind explaining? the 3 part post didnt make any sense at all. Suspicious for the time being, unless ofcourse this gets clarified.
    Okay, so. When a bandwagon looks to be forming on someone outside the coven, witches want to get on - this should be obvious, right?
    But witches don't want to vote together too obviously - they are very afraid of people going "hey these three guys always vote for the same guy at the same time!" or whatever. So... when a bandwagon is getting started, if it's on a non-covenmember, it's pretty common for a witch to land on the bandwagon as the second, third, or fourth vote - but by and large, only one witch will land in one of those positions. Likewise, if a bandwagon gets going, one or two more witches will tend to land in the later positions; they're a little more willing to go together near the end, where they have some cover due to the sheer number of townies on whatever wagon it is.

    Now, if you happen to not agree that IF, Fry, or I are non-coven, then you should reject the part of my conclusions that come from whichever bandwagon you think was on a covenmember - instead, conclude that probably there was one witch in the later part of the train, since witches will almost never let a witch go down without at least one witch voting for him.

    And furthermore, what I'm describing is a general voting tendancy - sometimes witches avoid it, either deliberately or due to sheer accidents of timing. But ... what I've noticed is that it's still pretty plausible, and it's hard for witches to avoid falling into the pattern even if they know about it, since the alternatives look pretty damn suspicious.

  4. - Top - End - #214
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    Horoar's Avatar

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Doesn't the spy have two Roles, so you can't devour him?
    ‎'If sally has 8 eggs and jim has 4 eggs and they each give half their eggs to scott, in which country would you find the Caja District?"

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  5. - Top - End - #215
    Sotek
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by byers2142 View Post
    Ok, that makes sense, then. For some reason, I read them as either-or statements. Either the first grouping, or the second, or the third. So, given your analysis and the non-coven assumption, you're saying the top four coven suspects are Crunchy English, Tydude, myself, and Hipen3, in that order, but with the speed of these bandwagons coming and going it makes analysis difficult.
    The either-or is within the various bracketed sets - either Tydude or Zanshin, etc etc.

    And the people *I* want to look at - of course, that assumes people will go along with me - are Crunchy English, then Tydude, and if Tydude satisfies maybe Zanshin.

  6. - Top - End - #216
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    ... Busy day...

    ...What? Werewolf?!?

    Internet Flea, you might want to rethink that claim. To me, that's just a big flag to try to get me to lynch you. So, I'm willing to try my luck on you.
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  7. - Top - End - #217
    Onime-no-Enishi
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Sotek View Post
    Okay, so. When a bandwagon looks to be forming on someone outside the coven, witches want to get on - this should be obvious, right?
    But witches don't want to vote together too obviously - they are very afraid of people going "hey these three guys always vote for the same guy at the same time!" or whatever. So... when a bandwagon is getting started, if it's on a non-covenmember, it's pretty common for a witch to land on the bandwagon as the second, third, or fourth vote - but by and large, only one witch will land in one of those positions. Likewise, if a bandwagon gets going, one or two more witches will tend to land in the later positions; they're a little more willing to go together near the end, where they have some cover due to the sheer number of townies on whatever wagon it is.

    Now, if you happen to not agree that IF, Fry, or I are non-coven, then you should reject the part of my conclusions that come from whichever bandwagon you think was on a covenmember - instead, conclude that probably there was one witch in the later part of the train, since witches will almost never let a witch go down without at least one witch voting for him.

    And furthermore, what I'm describing is a general voting tendancy - sometimes witches avoid it, either deliberately or due to sheer accidents of timing. But ... what I've noticed is that it's still pretty plausible, and it's hard for witches to avoid falling into the pattern even if they know about it, since the alternatives look pretty damn suspicious.
    right i see it now, thanks for clarifying. combined with the other posts, i get what you mean now.

  8. - Top - End - #218
    Onime-no-Enishi
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Internet Flea View Post
    Witches can't kill the werewolf until the Spy is dead, otherwise Spy just reveals and town lynches all of them.
    why not? >>; the werewolf cant touch the spy anyway, since the spy technically has two roles. And even if he can, i actually dont see whats stopping the spy from revealing all the witches o.o;;

  9. - Top - End - #219
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Onime-no-Enishi View Post
    why not? >>; the werewolf cant touch the spy anyway, since the spy technically has two roles. And even if he can, i actually dont see whats stopping the spy from revealing all the witches o.o;;
    Spy can't kill the Werewolf unless the other witches are all dead, and witches just kill him if he reveals. It comes down to the DOB getting himself lynched without making it obvious he's the DOB. Nobody wants that, I don't think.

    Of course if the Werewolf is dead the Spy doesn't care about keeping quiet, so the witches won't kill him.

  10. - Top - End - #220
    Sotek
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Yeah, what IF said. It's a ****ty game if werewolf is known dead early, because spy claims, the next handful of days are spent auto-lynching known witches, and then it comes down to "did the witches mess up and NK the JW? did the JW manage to hide from priest? Did priest have to reveal himself to sort out the competing spyclaims?" and while there's some game there, it takes a while to get to it, and it sucks all around. Nobody has fun if that happens.

    I mean, town probably wins, and the setup to that point is still fun, but it sucks.

    So ... yeah.

  11. - Top - End - #221
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Sotek View Post
    The either-or is within the various bracketed sets - either Tydude or Zanshin, etc etc.

    And the people *I* want to look at - of course, that assumes people will go along with me - are Crunchy English, then Tydude, and if Tydude satisfies maybe Zanshin.
    very well..since my single vote is doin nothin where it is atm ill join you on crunchy english

    hmmm, i always thought of the english as mushy...the scots now...definately crunchy
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  12. - Top - End - #222
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    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    I already mentioned this in the Shapeshifter game, I think... I'm just an Anglophone Canadian. Canadians are the crunchiest. It's the cold weather, keeps us crisp.
    Not an Englishman, just an Anglophone Canadian. But yes, I am crunchy.

  13. - Top - End - #223
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    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Crunchy English View Post
    I already mentioned this in the Shapeshifter game, I think... I'm just an Anglophone Canadian. Canadians are the crunchiest. It's the cold weather, keeps us crisp.
    You did mention it, and I'd probably sig it one of this times if I were you. What bothers me is, how is everyone on the boards so ultra-aware of the crunchiness of Englishmen, or the lack of crunch contained in same? Was there an Englishman taste test that I wasn't invited to?
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  14. - Top - End - #224
    Troll in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Hmm. I'm switching from Ramsus to a deadline vote on CitizenFry.
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  15. - Top - End - #225
    CitizenFry
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    OK, I was asked for reads, here are a few:

    Selected entries from Fry's Scumdex
    (-10 is modconfirmed nun, 10 is werewolf that has successfully nommed)
    byers2142: 4
    Internet Flea: 7
    Mannikath: -1
    Crunchy English: 1
    Horoar: -2

    I'd vote for Internet Flea as the guy with the huge "I am scum" banner over his head, but given the exact nature of his situation, it's better to leave him as a default DOB target. Crunchy, you were at about a 3, which is why I poked you, but your response has been pretty good, so I've dialed it down.

    Re: my role. I'm low value. There are much worse lynches than me. (Though obviously hitting scum would be better, ha)

    vote tally:
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    Lynch votes: (21 alive, 11 is majority)
    Sotek: 2 (Leta, Qwaz)
    Internet Flea: 4 (Ramsus, Orzel, Onime-no-Enishi, Eternal Drifter)
    CitizenFry: 8+1 (seraine, Crunchy English, Istari, Internet Flea, Horoar, Zanshin, Tydude, byers2142) (Murska)
    byers2142: 1 (CitizenFry)
    Crunchy English: 2 (Sotek, VA_beds)
    Horoar: 1 (Hipen3)
    null: 2 (Mannikath, Irbis)

  16. - Top - End - #226
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    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Been dying to get a post just like that from Citizen. Thanks man. I'd like some more experienced players to maybe tell me what they think of his responses, but in the mean time I'm switching my vote from Citizen Fry to Hipen3.

    Why Hipen3? I don't reallt know... he's just always last on the bandwagon, it seems weird.
    Not an Englishman, just an Anglophone Canadian. But yes, I am crunchy.

  17. - Top - End - #227
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by CitizenFry View Post
    OK, I was asked for reads, here are a few:

    Selected entries from Fry's Scumdex
    (-10 is modconfirmed nun, 10 is werewolf that has successfully nommed)
    byers2142: 4
    Internet Flea: 7
    Mannikath: -1
    Crunchy English: 1
    Horoar: -2

    I'd vote for Internet Flea as the guy with the huge "I am scum" banner over his head, but given the exact nature of his situation, it's better to leave him as a default DOB target. Crunchy, you were at about a 3, which is why I poked you, but your response has been pretty good, so I've dialed it down.

    Re: my role. I'm low value. There are much worse lynches than me. (Though obviously hitting scum would be better, ha)
    Changing from CitizenFry to Hipen3. I don't like him not showing up on CitizenFry's list.

  18. - Top - End - #228
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    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Glad we heard something from you, Fry. I'll switch from CitizenFry to Crunchy English, as he's the only one that shows on both Fry's list (albeit low) and Sotek's list, other than myself.

    So, are we really going to have to do this dance on day one? Is no one else willing to open up unless they're at a L-2 voting level even though they know that's what's eventually coming? Because if so it will be a long day ahead of us...
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  19. - Top - End - #229
    CitizenFry
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by byers2142 View Post
    Glad we heard something from you, Fry. I'll switch from CitizenFry to Crunchy English, as he's the only one that shows on both Fry's list (albeit low) and Sotek's list, other than myself.

    So, are we really going to have to do this dance on day one? Is no one else willing to open up unless they're at a L-2 voting level even though they know that's what's eventually coming? Because if so it will be a long day ahead of us...
    Can you lay some reads on us, byers?

  20. - Top - End - #230
    CitizenFry
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Also, these people need to post more

    Qwaz 3
    seraine 3
    Zanshin 3
    Murska 3
    Eternal Drifter 3
    Leta 2
    Istari 2
    Irbis 2 (yes, this is a lynch vote)
    Orzel 2

  21. - Top - End - #231
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Do I? And why's that?

  22. - Top - End - #232
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    *posts more*

    From CitizenFry to Hibar. I'm really not very enthusiastic about these first-day wagons in Witchhunt. I know they give useful data but... eh.
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  23. - Top - End - #233
    Troll in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Hipen, actually. Sorry.
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    Trusting Murska worked out great!
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    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  24. - Top - End - #234
    Sotek
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Qwaz View Post
    Do I? And why's that?
    Because we need to know that you're scum, obviously.


    ---------------------------------
    Post Reference Link
    Sotek's unofficial lynch vote tally. Please remember to specify all votes in red!
    21 voters, therefore 11 is majority and 11 is deadlock
    Internet Flea: 4 (Ramsus, Orzel, Onime-no-Enishi, Eternal Drifter)
    CitizenFry: 5 (seraine, Istari, Horoar, Zanshin, Tydude)
    Sotek: 2 (Leta, Qwaz)
    Crunchy English: 3 (Sotek, VA_beds, byers2142)
    Horoar: 1 (Hipen3)
    Hipen3: 3 (Crunchy English, Internet Flea, Murska)
    Irbis: 1 (CitizenFry)
    Abstaining: 2 (Irbis, Mannikath)
    ---------------------------------

  25. - Top - End - #235
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    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Can you lay some reads on us, byers?
    Sure, I'd be glad to. I'll start at the top of the post frequency list and work my way down, only talking about people I have a read on. Please excuse the typos, if any.

    Sotek - He's been leading things around, but it's in an effort to open up communications. Communications are always a pro-town thing. I've seen no reason to think he's scum.

    Horoar - He seems to be trying to figure things out as well. He doesn't always agree with Sotek, but last I check agreeing with Sotek isn't necessarily a requirement to be town.

    Crunchy English - I... I just don't know with this one. The read I'm getting from him is uncertain. He seemed scatter-brained early, what with the triple post to get things right and everything. A total Newbie, but not scum. But since then, he's gotten much better, even clearly laying out what type of response he was looking for from CitizenFry in one of his later posts. Is he just catching on that quick, or is it something else? My uncertainty of what to make of him is part of why I'm more comfortable pointing at him right now, rather than Hipen.

    Internet Flea - I think he's lying about the Werewolf thing; why make himself the DOB target like that if he is? It's his stupid but fun claim, and no matter how hard we push him you know he won't budge from it. He's either scum (and not the Warlock or Enchanress, either) or he's a high power role looking to avoid the lynch; either way, his claim does more harm than good in my eyes. If he dies, the Spy may assume the WW is dead and reveal himself early while the real WW is still hiding in the weeds.

    CitizenFry - Honestly, he worries me a little because he seems like he wants to always be on the offensive, never on the defensive. Early in the thread, when talking to Crunchy English, he seemed to implicitly equate new to scum, he attacked me for voting on people that were still below the L-2 threshold, and when pressured he didn't want to answer questions; even his final response is mostly the reads on other people he was asked for, with only two lines about himself. All that considered, I don't think he's scum yet, but I do think he might lead things away from scum and towards townies if he's not careful.

    byers2142 - An upstanding paradigm of non-scumminess. In seriousness, I stand out a bit, particualrly with the whole "I don't vote swap" to "Ok, so let's swap some votes" issue, but I hope I've explained why that issue occurred.

    Tydude - Quiet. Admitted himself he hasn't done as much in this game as he should have. My initial thoughts are he's either a power role or scum hiding in the weeds, but I don't have enough experience playing with him to know if that read applies in his case.

    VA_beds - He pinged me early when he posted but didn't vote, but he's been slowly waking up in the game. My early suspicions have been mostly assuaged.

    Hipen3 - Seems to be a bit like me, in that he's still learning the nuances of this type of game. But he's following the leader in most of his votes, and following late at that. Could be inexperience, could be when he's able to get on the boards, or could be scum. Also a bit quick to the defense.

    Murska - Not a huge read, but why isn't he talking more? From what i've read of his past games, he's very good at reading behavior, and at using those reads to manipulate. This would seem like the type of game he would come alive in, but so far nothing.
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  26. - Top - End - #236
    Sotek
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by byers2142 View Post
    Murska - Not a huge read, but why isn't he talking more? From what i've read of his past games, he's very good at reading behavior, and at using those reads to manipulate. This would seem like the type of game he would come alive in, but so far nothing.
    This is the only read I noticably disagree with. He was pretty quiet early in previous games too, and his degree of activity at this point feels to me like a nulltell.

    D2/D3 we can take a look if he's still quiet, and the same goes for Mannikath - Manni is always quiet and scummy-looking D1, then turns out to be the priest.

    Otherwise, your reads seem pretty decent to me, even if you don't know when not to talk about a topic!

  27. - Top - End - #237
    Troll in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    I don't know, I'm a high behind-the-scenes player in most WW games, which doesn't work in WH due to lack of PMs. So I revert to my 'watch and wait' behaviour - I intend to offer my observations when I observe something meaningful, but I'm generally better at manipulating people than reading threat behaviour. I can do it, somewhat, but I don't trust that kind of analysis enough before I have some actual data from elsewhere.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  28. - Top - End - #238
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    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    Quote Originally Posted by Sotek View Post
    This is the only read I noticably disagree with. He was pretty quiet early in previous games too, and his degree of activity at this point feels to me like a nulltell.

    D2/D3 we can take a look if he's still quiet, and the same goes for Mannikath - Manni is always quiet and scummy-looking D1, then turns out to be the priest.

    Otherwise, your reads seem pretty decent to me, even if you don't know when not to talk about a topic!
    Like I said, it wasn't a huge read, and I've never actually played through a game with Murska before; in the Phantom game, he was gone Night 1. If that's his style, chalk my read up to lack of familiarity.

    As for not knowing when to not talk, yeah, that's a problem of mine. I like to talk, and I tend not to know when I should shut up about something. In other games, I'd probably not be as blatant about it because half or more would be in PMs (and others would tell me to shut my mouth!) but here, with no off-board means of communication, it's much more obvious. As a rule, don't ask me for reads unless you're willing to risk my blabbing about something I shouldn't, because I probably will. Makes keeping Christmas gifts a secret very hard in RL.
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  29. - Top - End - #239
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    Qwaz's Avatar

    Join Date
    Nov 2010

    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    ok here's me talking.

    With no PM's and everything in thread it's kind of a new experience for me. Vote swapping as well is something I've always been on the lookout for as having a deeper motive whereas here it used to apply pressure. Unsure of how to contribute I'm falling back on observation.

    So far it seems that what's happening is this...

    Community ratchet up people to 2 from lynch and tell them to claim or be lynched

    Either people refuse or lie about what they are.

    Community leaves them alone if they lie or lynches if they don't.


    It's the only time i've seen lies valued over reticence and it's very confusing. I do see why. The more someone talks the more tells they give off but really if someone knows that this is what's going on they'll just do what I'm doing now. Break it all down and give off what tells they want to...right?

    Without meaning to degrade the whole affair. Without lynching claims are just talk.

  30. - Top - End - #240
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    ClericGuy

    Join Date
    Aug 2010
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    Default Re: Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

    I might seem like a wierd choice to refute Qwaz given my hard-earned Newbie status, but there IS a reason I chose a Witchunt for my first game ever.

    Qwaz, the thing is, one of those Liars probably WILL get lynched. See, I read the first two games, every single post and the pattern I saw developing was pretty simple:

    1) Apply blind pressure to see if someone screws up, panics or remains too calm during their fakeclaim.

    2) Evaluate fakeclaim both on strategic purpose, as well as possible Double Bluff

    3) Move on and repeat until last 6 hours

    4) When the deadline approaches, choose most suspicious person who was wagoned, bite the bullet and lynch them, knowing full well that its only marginally better than a random point.

    5) Await NK

    6) When D2 starts, THEN real information is gained and things can move forward.

    At least, that's how I read it. I wasn't there though, so my perspective might be skewed. Still, don't think just because we move on the people under the microscope are free and clear. It's not like anyone said, "Oh, Internet Flea lied to us, good, I can cross him off the suspect list". Indeed, if you look at people's reads there are at least a couple who want to call that bluff immediately. Sotek isn't as sure, because he can't forsee a strategic deployment of that fakeclaim where lynching Flea helps Town.

    I may have misread you Qwaz, but if you think that we're not getting something valuable out of the people pressured, I must sternly disagree.
    Not an Englishman, just an Anglophone Canadian. But yes, I am crunchy.

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