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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricky S View Post
    But maths doesn't accurately predict luck and chance. The point is that you can mathhammer away as much as you like but at the end of the day you cannot predict what the outcome will be, merely what the most likely outcome is instead.
    Which is the entire point of 'mathhammering'. If I can pick from two weapons, one of which has a 1/3 chance of wounding and the other has a 2/3 chance of wounding against my most common enemy, I'm going to pick the one with a higher success percentage. If my unit of 30 Ork Boyz can charge a Blender Dreadnaught or a squad of infantry, I'm going to send them after the one who's guaranteed to be unable to wipe out my unit before I attack.
    Quote Originally Posted by GungHo, on Battletech
    The Atlas is also goofy but it has that whole "Stay Puft Marshmallow Man" menacing smile thing going for it. The guy who drew that one up was obviously taken to the Nutcracker when he was a child... and he was screaming in terror the entire time.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    In short; Math Hammer is handy. But it doesn't work. Not in the real world. Don't pretend that it does. Lies. Damn Lies. Statistics.
    Actualy it does, you just have to understand what it does, and that is to tell you the most likely outcome of a situation.

    As the glyphstone said, its most usefull when comparing different units or weapons, and allows you to find the best pick.

    Personaly i used it on the heavy weapon selection in my guardian units, and were surprised over how much better Scatter lasers were at shutting SM light transport down.
    thnx to Starwoof for the fine avatar

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by lord_khaine View Post
    As the glyphstone said, its most usefull when comparing different units or weapons, and allows you to find the best pick.
    But you don't need Math-hammer for that.
    Unless "Strength 5 is greater than Strength 4." counts as Math-Hammer?
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    It might be more complex than that- high str + low WS vs low str + high WS, varying number of attacks, and so on.

    Mathhammer provides answers to questions like "Do I have a 50+% chance of destroying this unit with that unit?"
    Last edited by hamishspence; 2011-11-16 at 09:17 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    I think Glyphstone has it right. you're dealing with dice; nothing is certain. I once played a 2000 point 3 round tournament where my list had 8 lascannons. total kill points for the ENTIRE TOURNAMENT: 1. It was a trukk.

    however, that shouldn't prevent you from looking at a basic chance difference and trying to use the probabilities in your favor.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by hamishspence View Post
    It might be more complex than that- high str + low WS vs low str + high WS, varying number of attacks, and so on.

    Mathhammer provides answers to questions like "Do I have a 50+% chance of destroying this unit with that unit?"
    And followup questions like 'If I do have a 50+% chance of destroying them, but roll badly and fail, what are the % odds that they, and the unit waiting next to them for a countercharge, will destroy me before I can retaliate and/or commit my own second wave? Will I have a better chance of overall success by sending those reserves to another fight and letting this unit fend for itself?

    In the grim statistics of the far future, there is only math.
    Quote Originally Posted by GungHo, on Battletech
    The Atlas is also goofy but it has that whole "Stay Puft Marshmallow Man" menacing smile thing going for it. The guy who drew that one up was obviously taken to the Nutcracker when he was a child... and he was screaming in terror the entire time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enterti, Cogidubnus
    Glyphstone, out of all the playground I think you scare me the most...
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    Glyphstone, you are an evil person :D

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Provengreil View Post
    I think Glyphstone has it right. you're dealing with dice; nothing is certain.
    But Glyphstone didn't say that...

    Quote Originally Posted by hamishspence View Post
    Mathhammer provides answers to questions like "Do I have a 50+% chance of destroying this unit with that unit?"
    But even that doesn't work. Unless you do it in your head, at the table, and manage to be so good at it your opponent doesn't call you out for stalling. Because your opponent also gets to play the game too and wont always play to your way.

    My Khorne Berzerkers can absolutely wreck a Tactical Squad, but, if that Tactical Squad just keeps moving backwards out of charge range, or mounts up and drives away, Khorne Berzerkers can't do anything.

    The game doesn't work like Math-Hammer says it should. It makes people fall into a false sense of security thinking something will happen, then you find out the dice hate you and you roll trip-1s.

    Dice are random number generator cubes. Deal with it.
    Last edited by Cheesegear; 2011-11-16 at 09:22 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Mathhammer is a tool for evaluating things. No, you shouldn't swear by it, by any means. But it is useful for, say, evaluating the merits of thunder hammers vs. lightning claws.


    Part of the problem too is that we're relying on what is the "most" probable result, even if wildly different results (like the dreadnaught example) are almost as probable. If we used, say, a bell curve, you'd probably get a more realistic answer to the question.


    And, at the end of the day, you need to remember that mathhammer only really shows up after 10-15 games.

    Also, statistical analysis is a way to ward off boredom.
    Last edited by Squark; 2011-11-16 at 09:24 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    dice are like cards- random- and the best card players learn to estimate the probability of the card they need coming up, or the probability of the other guy having a better hand.

    Same principles can apply to gaming.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by hamishspence View Post
    dice are like cards- random- and the best card players learn to estimate the probability of the card they need coming up, or the probability of the other guy having a better hand.
    Wrong. Cards are not random. But picking one card out of the deck, you drastically reduce your chances of drawing that card again (in fact, all the way down to 0%). If you have the Ace of Diamonds, you know for a fact, that the other guy doesn't have it. Counting Cards is a thing. Because cards are not random.

    Dice, are dice. You roll a 1 once, you can roll it again, and again, again. Three times in a row. You can't 'count dice'.
    Last edited by Cheesegear; 2011-11-16 at 09:27 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesegear View Post
    But even that doesn't work. Unless you do it in your head, at the table, and manage to be so good at it your opponent doesn't call you out for stalling. Because your opponent also gets to play the game too and wont always play to your way.

    My Khorne Berzerkers can absolutely wreck a Tactical Squad, but, if that Tactical Squad just keeps moving backwards out of charge range, or mounts up and drives away, Khorne Berzerkers can't do anything.

    The game doesn't work like Math-Hammer says it should. It makes people fall into a false sense of security thinking something will happen, then you find out the dice hate you and you roll trip-1s.

    Dice are random number generator cubes. Deal with it.
    Completely true. What you could use it for, however, is risk evaluation within playing. If you can evaluate which units in an army pose the greatest threat to yours, you can play around it.


    Plus, like I said, some people have too much time on their hands, and mathhammer is a minor brainteaser that can be fun.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesegear View Post
    Wrong. Cards are not random. But picking one card out of the deck, you drastically reduce your chances of drawing that card again (in fact, all the way down to 0%). If you have the Ace of Diamonds, you know for a fact, that the other guy doesn't have it. Counting Cards is a thing. Because cards are not random.
    In the sense that (having eliminated the cards you already have from consideration) the probability that the next card you draw is the one you want, can be estimated, it works on a similar principle.

    Being able to estimate statistics is useful in both cases.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by hamishspence View Post
    In the sense that (having eliminated the cards you already have from consideration) the probability that the next card you draw is the one you want, can be estimated, it works on a similar principle.
    But it isn't random. If I can say with certainty that the next card I draw will not be the one already in my hand, then it isn't random, because I know what's in the deck. If I take 51 cards out of the deck, I know, exactly what the 52nd card is going to be.

    n=1/52, n=1/51, n=1/50. The more cards you draw, the more certain the odds become, and thus, less random.

    If I roll a dice 51 times, I can't guarantee at all what the next roll is going to be. I can roll a dice 900 times, in five sets, and the results aren't going to be the same.
    Hell, Two-Up, one of the easiest gambling game in the world, is still 100% random. And you only have two numbers to choose from!

    Gambler theory is fun.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    The point being that if knowledge of statistics is useful in cards, it can be useful in dice as well.

    Debating the definition of the word "random" can be fun, but it gets away from the thrust of the argument.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Mathhammer doesn't work, but it is the best we got. And when you play it you need to use it to some degree. Most decisions you make in warhammer will propperbly be based around mathhammer, becourse people rarely win by taking what can potentially give the best result, they go after what has the best chance of doing so (otherwise everybody would use fleshborer hives,punishers,chaptermasters and so on).

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    In the grim statistics of the far future, there is only math.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninjaman View Post
    Mathhammer doesn't work, but it is the best we got. And when you play it you need to use it to some degree. Most decisions you make in warhammer will propperbly be based around mathhammer, becourse people rarely win by taking what can potentially give the best result, they go after what has the best chance of doing so (otherwise everybody would use fleshborer hives,punishers,chaptermasters and so on).



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    Necron Phaeron w/ Resurrection Orb, Warscythe = 140 pts
    -Harbinger of Despair w/ Veil of Darkness = 60 pts

    Vanguard Obyron = 160 pts

    Necron Immortals x10 = 170 pts
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    Necron Immortals x10 = 170 Pts
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    Necron Warriors x14 = 182 pts
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    992 points total.

    The idea is for ridiculous mobility, in the sense of 'being able to relocate from one end of the battlefield to the other in a turn' and concentration of force against vulnerable targets. Obryon joins one Immortals unit, the Harbinger joins the other, providing two units that can Deep Strike themselves into position every turn and shoot from 24' out. The Warrior block can do the same with their attached Phaeron, and the Night Scythe lets them pile in and bumrush 36" away from danger, or move 12", pile out, and still shoot at 24". It's rather weak against vehicles, but will lay out unholy pain against anything that's primarily infantry-based (The majority of my local metagame)
    Last edited by The Glyphstone; 2011-11-16 at 10:14 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by GungHo, on Battletech
    The Atlas is also goofy but it has that whole "Stay Puft Marshmallow Man" menacing smile thing going for it. The guy who drew that one up was obviously taken to the Nutcracker when he was a child... and he was screaming in terror the entire time.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesegear View Post
    But even that doesn't work. Unless you do it in your head, at the table, and manage to be so good at it your opponent doesn't call you out for stalling.
    You don't have to be all that good at it, you just have to practice some. The numbers are pretty straight forward and you see a lot of the same ones all the time, you just have to recognize it. I can generally mathhammer out a combat while the opponent is counting out attacks and dice and rolling them. I generally do it during their turn to know what I'm going to do during mine, at least in cases where there is a few choices, often I set up situations ahead of time where there aren't really choices.

    I do it for "fun" a lot of the time too. And its not too surprising that often the numbers that comes up and the numbers I calculated are very close. When you start actually doing it all the time and paying attention to it you see how well it does work. Everyone remembers the time they rolled 4 1 or 4 6s in a row and did the unexpected and completely forget the 100 other combats that was pretty much exactly as expected.

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninjaman View Post
    they go after what has the best chance of doing so (otherwise everybody would use fleshborer hives,punishers,chaptermasters and so on).
    I'll just point out that the examples listed are not bad because of Math-Hammer. They are bad because there are other things in the army to it instead. Especially when it comes to Fleshborers coming at the cost of Rupture Cannons.

    Punishers, likewise, come at the cost of other, better tanks. Not because of Maths. But because of the simple fact that they can't deal with opposing vehicles (unless Math-Hammer is "I have 0% chance to penetrate AV12+ with S5"?). Wheras other tanks can simultaneously bring arms to beat both vehicles and infantry. And AP- sucks - and you don't need Math-Hammer to see that one.

    Chapter Masters...The points cost is written on the page for little difference. Math-Hammer not required. You could probably play-test it once, and then never use it again. But you wouldn't need Math-Hammer to know why you're not using one anymore.

    ...Haven't we survived like...Four whole threads without a discussion argument on statistics? Ah well...Streak ruined. ...Now why am I so sad about that...
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Mid-game mathhammer is useless and annoying. Metagame mathhammer makes you less sexy and list building mathhammer is viable but redundant.
    Last edited by Closet_Skeleton; 2011-11-16 at 10:32 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesegear View Post
    ...Haven't we survived like...Four whole threads without a discussion argument on statistics? Ah well...Streak ruined. ...Now why am I so sad about that...
    Blame the blendernought. It is the cause of all this disruption.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Punishers are bad, but they're also fun. That's why I have one, for nothing short of gleefully being able to roll 26 BS4 shots from a single model (I always buy Pask for it when I can).
    Quote Originally Posted by GungHo, on Battletech
    The Atlas is also goofy but it has that whole "Stay Puft Marshmallow Man" menacing smile thing going for it. The guy who drew that one up was obviously taken to the Nutcracker when he was a child... and he was screaming in terror the entire time.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    But you don't need Math-hammer for that.
    Unless "Strength 5 is greater than Strength 4." counts as Math-Hammer?
    Sure you do, when you need to figure out at what point a lot of shots at S6 is going to be better than a singel one at S8.
    thnx to Starwoof for the fine avatar

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricky S View Post
    Blame the blendernought. It is the cause of all this disruption.
    You could say he's chaotic ?.

    Anyways, I though I'd share this. Since I'm really new at the game, seeing how games are played is a huge insight of how the basics of the rules work, and it's kinda entertaining to see a group of plasma tanks beating the the crap out of blood angels .


    Also, things I've learned:

    1.- IG move like there's no tomorrow
    2.- IG are squishy, I guess this is why you need lots of them
    3.- It is not weird to pep-talk to your minis.
    Last edited by ArqArturo; 2011-11-16 at 10:55 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by lord_khaine View Post
    Sure you do, when you need to figure out at what point a lot of shots at S6 is going to be better than a singel one at S8.
    Oh that one's easy. absent armor 13/14, always.

    /Has missed way too often with missile launchers
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by IthilanorStPete View Post
    Posting a 1500 (actually 1503, but whatever) points Space Wolves list for review!

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    Rune Priest - 130 pts
    -Terminator armor, Chooser of the Slain
    -Living Lightning, Murderous Hurricane

    Good. Consider jaws of the world wolf.

    Wolf Lord - 205 pts
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    Fine, i would keep him in PA and take a storm shield, but i would take a storm shield if he was in TDA anyway.

    Grey Hunters (x10) - 205 pts
    -2xMeltaguns, Mark of the Wulfen
    -Dedicated transport: Drop Pod

    No Wolf Guard?

    Grey Hunters (x10) - 225 pts
    -2xPlasma guns, Power sword, Mark of the Wulfen
    -Dedicated transport: Drop Pod

    Meltaguns and Flamers are better than plasmaguns, especially with drop pods. drop the power sword and get a wolf guard with thunderhammer.

    Grey Hunters (x10) - 190 pts
    -2xPlasma guns, Power sword, Mark of the Wulfen

    These need a dedicated transport in addition to my previous comments.

    Wolf Guard (x6) - 293 pts
    -One model in Terminator armor with wolf claw, storm bolter, cyclone missile launcher
    -Four models in Terminator armor with wolf claw, storm bolter
    -One model in power armor with boltgun, power fist
    -Dedicated transport: Drop Pod

    I'm pretty sure terminators cant ride in a drop pod, these guys need stom shields but otherwise good.

    Long Fangs (x6) - 140 pts
    -Missile launchers (x5)

    GOOD!

    Long Fangs (x6) - 115 pts
    -Heavy bolters (x5)
    BAD! make same as above.


    The Rune Priest would usually go with one Long Fang squad, and the Cyclone Wolf Guard with the other Long Fangs. Then I'd split off the power-armored Wolf Guard to go with the footslogging Grey Hunters, and the Wolf Lord would drop in with the 4 remaining Wolf Guard. How's this all look?
    Grey Hunters need meltas and flamers all round, Grey Hunters are built for assault, they just use the bolters on the way in.

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  27. - Top - End - #327
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Darius Macab View Post
    Grey Hunters need meltas and flamers all round, Grey Hunters are built for assault, they just use the bolters on the way in.
    Which would be true if they didn't have Counter-Assault special rule.
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  28. - Top - End - #328
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    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Darius Macab, you were asking why Ithilanor's drop pods don't have wolf guard. Well, the Wolves have economy drop pods that hold ten models, not twelve.
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  29. - Top - End - #329
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    RedWizardGuy

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Trixie View Post
    Which would be true if they didn't have Counter-Assault special rule.
    Which has a decidedly non-zero chance of derping out on you right when you need it. Charging both guarantees that you get the extra attack, and prevents the opponent from getting any goodies like Furious Charge. Plus, there's some debate about whether or not the Wolf Standard has to be activated in the shooting phase. If your opponent's being anal, charging guarantees that the Standard won't go to waste. Lastly, it's nice to occasionally use those Bolt Pistols for something other than the bonus attack.

    EDIT: Darius, Space Wolf Terminators most certainly can ride in Drop Pods--otherwise, they wouldn't be able to Deep Strike at all.
    Last edited by Teln; 2011-11-16 at 12:39 PM.
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  30. - Top - End - #330
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop XIV: "Pray for 6's!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninjaman View Post
    That would be about the same as saying that the punisher was awesome since it could potentially kill 20 orks as well. And then the rest would flee.
    Not at all dear chap, it's just that I can honestly say that I must beat the average a lot because it is a rare day when I don't do a lot better than your figures suggest.

    And as for my derision of stats, it's not derision of the idea itself, it's bemused nonacceptance of the belief that everything can be predicted by them. Anyway, moving on.
    Last edited by Timberwolf; 2011-11-16 at 01:49 PM.


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