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2012-04-19, 03:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Simple statistics cover all of that. It's really not that hard - matches (in this case, an imaginary billion matches for each champ in the game) will tell us how Twitch has done in actual matches against every other champ, and with every team, imaginable.
Actually, there are a lot of champions, so that's rather a lot of different match-ups ... but it's not the sample size that's the issue here, I'm not trying to make this real.
The actual questions I ask are the actual questions for an actual reason. The whole point of the exercise isn't to statistically analyse the game and weigh each champion against every other champion. Note how that is not the actual question.
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2012-04-19, 03:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Yeah, ultimately this would crash to player skill. For example, sample would tell you that Anivia loses to Kassadin on lane. However, in a case of few Anivia-players, this is suddenly inversed since Kassadin cannot deal with an AD-specced runepage on lane.
This is not the only lane that hinges entirely on player skill so any sample would most likely be polluted by people misplaying certain lanes (especially accounting for junglers) even on tournament level.Campaign Journal: Uncovering the Lost World - A Player's Diary in Low-Magic D&D (Latest Update: 8.3.2014)
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2012-04-19, 04:11 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
No ... all of those are just statistical variables. And it's still no where near the point.
Seriously. I ask questions - in that post. Those questions are the point. All this nonsense about statistics and sample sizes is not.
But never mind. Lets stick with the statistics then: There is no magic involved in player skill that isn't accounted for by statistics. If champ X beats Champ Y nine times out of ten - then that is the statistic. It doesn't fail to account for the last time where Y beat X.
If the calculations are correct, the sample size sufficent, and the research sensible, the predictions will be statistically correct.
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2012-04-19, 04:23 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
So you're saying that player skill doesn't matter. Using Eld's example, if Kass beats Anivia nine out of ten times....
Then you, playing as Kassadin, should be able to beat Bigfatjiji on Anivia nine times.
I don't think you understand how statistics work, dude.
And to answer the questions you asked:
No, this would not pick a team capable of winning every time, and no, it would not come close to making intelligent bans.
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2012-04-19, 04:37 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Uh - no. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that player skill is accounted for by statistics.
I don't think I ever claimed that it would pick teams capable of winning every match - if I did, I strayed woefully far from my intention, which was whether it would be better at picking and counterpicking than the players are.
On an entirely different note, I completely agree with you (regarding the actual answers/questions) - for entirely different reasons, but that's another matter.
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2012-04-19, 04:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
You can't statisically account for individual player performance. There exists no relevant metric. Additionally, win% differentials between champion matchups almost never exceed ~10%. Lolking.net's charts provide relatively small sample sizes, but here's an example. In top lane matchups, over the course of 1062 games, the Tryndamere/Shen matchup comes to 54.8%/45.2%, and that's one of the most one-sided matchups shown.
Your questions don't actually ask anything of value, in my opinion. "Would this work?" What does that even mean? Needlessly vague and difficult to answer. Yes, it would almost certainly pick teams capable of winning. That distinction, however, is effectively meaningless considering that the vast ((vast)estimation: >99%) of team compositions have a win% of >0%. Would it cause a game to be "lost or won with the first ban?" No, it wouldn't. That's not how statistics work.
The second question doesn't make very much sense; do you mean contemporary games? There's no way to answer that without access to the impossible-to-acquire data in the first place. How can we make a comparison between known data and something entirely unknown?
You've laid out an entirely unfeasible premise with absurd expectations and ask questions that are inherently impossible to answer.
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2012-04-19, 04:56 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
If you have data on individual player skill, there is absolutely no reason why statistics cannot account for it.
Now ........ seriously. I've stated time and again that the statistics are uninteresting. Totally. And that it's a thought experiment.
For what it's worth, we can keep going round and round about things that I've specified are beside the point - it just seems somewhat pointless.
The input I'm curious about is - as previously stated - if you had a tool for picking the best statistical counter for any given situation, taking into account your own team composition, would you then:
Get better teams using this tool than not using it?
Would these teams be capable of winning (by a greater margin than otherwise)?
Neither of those questions are impossible to answer - but anyone who thinks so is welcome to refrain from trying.
I was curious because, as it appears here and elsewhere, some people put a lot of stock in statistics - like the one mentioned for Shen/Trynda. Personally, I consider the statistics to be very close to nonsensical in a practical application - not withstanding the statistical accuracy.
It's .... psyco-history, or related anyways, for anyone who gets the reference. Isaac Asimov.
Nevermind. Thanks for your insigths all - even if they kinda didn't give me quite what I was looking for =)
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2012-04-19, 05:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
How exactly would you accrue data for individual skill? There's no direct way to derive any individual player's effect on a game.
The disconnect here is that you're asking about something fundamentally related to statistical analysis and subsequently disregarding any mention of statistics.
It's roughly as pointless as the though experiment that spawned it, so I don't see how that's a problem.
Stastically speaking, I estimate that your chances of having those questions answered would have increased by at least 100% if you had actually bothered to ask them.
Those are precisely the only two questions in your original post, and I commented on them to the best of my ability.
Obviously, no question is impossible to answer. I was unclear. It is, in my opinion, impossible to answer either of those questions in any definitive, correct, or worthwhile manner. At which conclusion, exactly, do you expect to arrive?
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2012-04-19, 05:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I would hazard that you'd see many more generic teamcomps using the statistically better champions, but you wouldn't see a marked increase in net victories overall. Unless the statistic pool was complex enough and large enough that it could figure out an individual player's capability to win on a certain team with a certain champion against a certain opponent playing a certain champion. That level of accuracy is just impossible.
So I think the teams you'd see would just be generically "good" teams, but I don't think it would actually increase the chances of victory at levels of play experience where player skill, comfort, and teamwork override basic champion abilities.
Would these teams be capable of winning (by a greater margin than otherwise)?
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2012-04-19, 10:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I think the problem with this strategy is each players personal skill with any given champ. You can reasonably predict lane match ups, accounting for player skill (which would be the variable that means we actually need percentage match ups) but you cant assume that each player is good with the most optimal counter to any given champ.
to use the shen/trydn match up
equal players, and the lane goes to trynd ( we have the 55%/45% statistic to account for player skill that pushed it the other way)
the program would automatically suggest trydn against shen, but what if the player is bad with trynd? or even just plays less well with trydn then, say, riven or akali or maokai or anyone else. then the intended advantage is not taken advantage of.
I think any advantage made by getting stronger lane match ups is lost fairly equally by players trying to use champs they are not as good with.
Instead of tempting players with a "favorable" lane, human judgement and experience will just tell us "hey, I happen to be better with vladmir. statistically, he shouldn't be as optimal as tryndamere, but I know I am better with vlad and have beaten shens before". boom. Human does better then he would have if he took the computer's advice.
now a personal program that tracks YOUR play and notes what match ups you win and lose might be interesting.
tl;dr the stats would work, but no advantage would be really gained. also, a personal match-up tacker would be pretty cool. also, potatoes
Edit: whoops, spell checkLast edited by Tesla_pasta; 2012-04-19 at 10:06 PM.
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2012-04-19, 10:46 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Personal stats tracker would be awesome, sorta like what they have for online poker games. Probably some sort of human input would be needed (for e.g who you laned against and an app that can pull that person's stats)
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2012-04-20, 12:30 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Acromos...correct me if I'm wrong, but one of the questions you asked about your statistically generated champion selection algorithm was, "Would this work?"
Therefore, it is PERFECTLY legitimate for people to respond by saying, "No, it will not work, because the statistics behind the model don't work out," and follow up with a statistical discussion.
If that's not the discussion you wanted to have, this probably isn't a model you should bother thinking about. And if you're so disinterested with respect to the quality of the idea, you probably shouldn't get defensive when people say it's a bad idea.
To answer your questions myself...
-Would it work? Your later qualifiers defining "work" are "would it give better teamcomps statistically?" and "would it lead to higher win rates?" I think the human factor leads to the answer "no", for both questions. If you work off tournament games, you don't have enough data to have a working model, and misleading factors like the success of one particular team with a particular strat other players can't perform as well will dominate the data. If you work off a larger sample, you introduce people who don't know how to play (which is most of the playerbase), and their success with a given champion won't reflect the theoretical matchup, but rather the relative inability of the players. Nor will the theoretical matchup be a reliable indicator of what the player USING this tool can do in that matchup.
-Would it behave similarly to human-chosen bans and picks? Not really, because humans choose champions largely based on their personal expertise, and this isn't a factor in the proposed model.
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2012-04-20, 01:07 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
greatings lol thread!
Don't know how i've been playing this long and not thought to come here.a tiny space dedicated to a beloved grandpa now passed. may every lunch be peanut butter-banana sandwiches.
i has 2/4 an internets.
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2012-04-20, 01:09 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
greatings lol thread!
Don't know how i've been playing this long and not thought to come here.a tiny space dedicated to a beloved grandpa now passed. may every lunch be peanut butter-banana sandwiches.
i has 2/4 an internets.
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gnome_4ever:
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2012-04-20, 01:18 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
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2012-04-20, 01:58 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
You are entirely correct.
Well - yes and no. If you decide to ignore the fact that I point out in my initial post that this is a thought experiment, and not something I'm seriously suggesting would be a great idea ..... then of course it's entirely valid to attack the premises.
However, if you do not decide to ignore key portions of the post, then attacking a hypothetical premis is pretty much the same as stating 'no, you cannot thought experiment that!'
I say myself, in the initial post, that it isn't a good idea. How - please explain this to me - how is it defensive that I repeat what I already stated?
What matter of communication is open to me that would not be defensive?
It's actually no problem to account for personal expertise - though you're entirely right, my initial post said 'tournament games' which would not include that subset, unless of course you happen to be a tournament player.
I agree that a system like this wouldn't work. Just not for the entirely same reasons - but ... I feel that there is something more than statistics going on in a game like this. And it's not just 'player skill', which has been suggested - that is entirelty quantifiable.
One thing the model doesn't allow for is picking offensively. It would know how to counter, basically picking only defensively.
There is a quality of draft and ranked games I think the model would handle well, tho. Out of any (random) five people who put together a team of champions, there is almost always someone who picks whatever they like without consideration of anyone else - leaving the rest of the team to somehow fix the combo. If there are two of these types, that becomes impossible, often. A model like this would counter that.
However, such a model would also always try to follow the statistically most succesful meta - something which leaves it open to anyone who spots a weakness in that. It will be predictable, which is always undesirable.
Eh - nevermind =)
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2012-04-20, 02:07 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
It's going something like this. "What if X?" "X cannot be" "Yes, but what if X?" "X cannot be!". Having a thought experiment about something impossible or unfeasible can sometimes be entertaining, but you need to know that you're engaging in meaningless blather.
EDIT: Oh, and eventually it would stabilize at either a Rock-Paper-Scissors or a Single Best Teamcomp type of situation. Once someone finds a counter to the best teamcomp, either it is the best (because it beat the previous best) or it beats the best, but loses to a different strat which the previous best defeats, leading to a rock-paper-scissors deal.Last edited by fred dref; 2012-04-20 at 02:10 AM.
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2012-04-20, 04:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I think it's neither impossible nor unfeasible - the data exists, there just isn't a mining tool for it. For every player in the world, at the very least the latest 10 games are recorded. That's even down on an individual player level.
So you could get the data, build the database, make the tool. None of this is difficult.
But never mind that part. That's boring and practical and reeks of work and databases, which are more boring than work except they are actually also work.
As I see it, if such a tool existed and worked, the situation would be that - provided both teams used it - the first ban would decide the teams, and affect the outcome of the match to some extent, large or small.
Naturally, it's Tier Lists and their large player following that gave me the idea for this. And made me question, to myself, whether Tier Lists make the game better in any way.
Hence, taking the idea of using statistics to it's ultimate conclusion - however absurd - sparked my initial post.
And of course I'm sure it wouldn't work. Which is a sort of round-about way of saying I think Tier Lists are bogus.
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2012-04-20, 04:40 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
*sob* Finally, a forum with a LoL-thread.. I can die in peace now.
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2012-04-20, 04:45 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
You should go to Team Liquid, they have a whole LoL subforum.
Last edited by fred dref; 2012-04-20 at 04:58 AM.
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2012-04-20, 04:59 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Sigh, lost over 70 elo over last 2 days. I should really stop playing in the mornings - while I'm ecstatic over getting to play with guys like aAa Linak and Gosu Pepper, I'm reeeaaallly not on their level.
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2012-04-20, 05:02 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I'd be much more excited about playing with Gosu Pepper if he wasn't such a ginormous knob.
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2012-04-20, 05:34 AM (ISO 8601)
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2012-04-20, 05:42 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Based on info gleaned from Reddit, he's been banned enough times that he leveled up a smurf just to play scrims on when his main account is banned.
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2012-04-20, 07:04 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I have another, simpler, question:
Can someone give a quick run-down of tactics on Dominion?
All I've come up with myself is: 'All go top first and take mid after' - hoping to be 4v3 top, and 'don't try to take the piont their whole team is defending, pick another one'.
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2012-04-20, 07:06 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
I don't think you really appreciate the astronomical amounts of data needed to make any relevant predictions. Each team makes 8 choices (3 bans, 5 picks) from a pool of ~95 champions. Thats over 10^31 different possible combinations just there*.
Now, you need a fairly large sample for each of these combinations. 100 or even 1000 games is definately on the low end for statistical significance, but might suffice if we don't want to get our results published or anything.
Then there's the variance - runes, masteries and player skill, as well as play style. All the results would be heavily influenced by these "hidden variables", effectively making the data useless, unless you start considering these choices in your model as well. In that case, just the number of combinations easily exceed the number of atoms in the observable universe.
You don't have to discuss this if you don't want to, since you don't find the statistical aspec interesting, but I wanted to point out that, no, the data definately isn't there.
For the actual usefulness of either this tool or tier lists, I agree with the thread - the human factor has much to big of an effect, and you need to make the decisions yourself instead.
*If you count team1: Ban Shaco, team2: Ban Shen and team1: Ban Shen, team2: Ban Shaco as different outcomes.
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2012-04-20, 07:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Eldariel is probably the highest rated dude here at Dominion, but some tips I've found that help are stuff such as:
If you cap a point and kill X guys, send back the X lowest health guys to heal. They'll be back at least as fast as the enemy team, and that way you won't have a half-health team trying to deal with the enemy full-health one.
Don't chase the enemies through the jungle. Push them off the point, make sure they're off the point, then take the point.
Pushing with minions helps a lot. If you have a big enough minion wave, or if you push enough times, eventually the minions will neutralize the point for you, allowing you to push in without the tower messing things up.
Bottom lane wants a strong laner. You know those guys who are absolutely incredibly strong laners on SR, who never lose lane and often win them? Those types. Yorick, Urgot, Cass type dudes. Pushing power, sustain and harass are all huge pluses here. You want to force the enemy to 1v2 you so your team can take an easy Windmill.
Oh, and above all, take 3 and hold. if you're going for a 4th, remember you don't actually need the 4th. You just need to make it easier for everyone else to take 3 and hold.
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2012-04-20, 07:46 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Had an interesting thought the other day relating to Karthus. Frequently I see people who play Karthus saying "ult ready" and then waiting for team fights in other lanes to occur so they can put that extra bit of damage on a lane to help secure a kill.
Has anyone tried playing it a little more intelligently and not waiting for the opportunity and ulting but having your entire team start a fight with the premise that Karthus can and will ult at the end of it? It could be done in all 3 lanes at once with the jungler ganking one of the lanes to help secure a kill. So 3 mini skirmishes start, top mid and bot, and then Karthus ults to try and bring down all the enemies involved.
Could even be worth going for an early AP rune page with the premise that you'll doing this and it'll help start you being snowballed into the mid game.
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2012-04-20, 07:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Is there ever a reason for Gragas to focus Body Slam over Barrel Roll? Is it stupid, or might a midgame Gragas who actually does damage with his E catch some people off guard, if they're dodging his Qs anyway?
I'd like to try a build that goes something like... Sunfire, Spirit Visage, BVeil, and Atma's. But that's just me.
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2012-04-20, 08:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: League of Legends XXXII: Cupcakes and Kittens and Squirrels. Oh my!
Oh, the data is definitely there, and it's definitely possible to assemble it and do the statistics. It's just not something to do in a mornings work - but then I never said it was.
Of course, there is some leeway in the term 'feasible'. It could be done, certainly, if anyone really wanted to. Actually, with some distributed computing (as in, each players calculations are done locally and only the results uploaded to a central database) the astronomical number of calculations becomes much, much less of an obstacle.
But then again, the actual doing of the thing was never my point. It's like ... space elevators.