Dethy IX: Wait. Ponies?

[Matthias2207]

Hello and welcome my little ponies.
You know the rules:
Well, obviously, you don't, because I changed them!
Not that much, just ponified it.
4 ponies, 1 zebra.
Ponies need to lynch the zebra, vote each day. Majority needed to lynch anybody.
Zebra gets a night kill.
Pony headstart: each pony starts the game with one random scry.
The ponies:
Twilight Sparkle: Scries accurate
Pinkie Pie: Scries inverted
Rainbow Dash: Everybody scries guilty
Fluttershy: Everybody scries innocent
Players:
1. Saposhiente (If he still wants to play with the ponies.)
2. Grue Bait
3. RuneboundShade
4. bladescape
5. Ur-Quan
Role PMs to be sent when everybody has confirmed this.
List for the next one:
The Grimmace
Internet Flea
I'm sorry, couldn't help myself. But it seemed some sort of appropriate, with the pony mayhem today (april 1st). By the time this thread is up, it will be over, but it won't be forgotten!

[Ur-Quan]

Confirmation.

[Saposhiente]

o hai

[Grue Bait]

I'm still in.

[Zjoot]

Dibs on the next one. Or if for some bizarre reason someone doesn't confirm, I'll take that spot.

[Internet Flea]

I guess I'll also get dibs on the next one.

[RuneboundShade]

*Explodes into the thread*

[bladescape]

Here. But I'll pass this round, as should Rune. We're both going to be going away on Friday, and we'll be out til Monday.

[Matthias2207]

Okay, Rune, do you agree?
Because that would make the list as follows:
1. Saposhiente
2. Grue Bait
3. The Grimmace
4. Internet Flea
5. Ur-Quan
Starting soon!

[RuneboundShade]

:cries:

Sadly, yes, I can't play, I won't be here....

[Matthias2207]

Okay, role PMs to be sent later today or maybe tomorrow.
Depends on the time I get home, I'll need to make a spreadsheet.

[Zjoot]

Alright, shall we start revealing info? Or should we wait for Sapo, who I believe said he had a srategy for day one...

[Grue Bait]

Which would be completely null if he turns out to be the mafia.

[Ur-Quan]

I've scried sapo innocent, but who knows.

[Saposhiente]

Alright, shall we start revealing info? Or should we wait for Sapo, who I believe said he had a srategy for day one...

(The strategy only allows me to analyze it super easily. We still claim our scries first thing)
Let's try something though. The way the Mafia play works, he can mostly determine who he likely should claim to have scried given only the targets, and he can mostly determine what he should claim his scry result to be given only the results. So, let's give him the full list of neither.
I scried Grimmace. Grue Bait, tell us who you scried first thing. Meanwhile, Grimmace and Flea, tell us your Innocent/Guilty. (I would have told a third person to also give their target only, but it's too late for that). Last person to give a result, give both pieces of info. After that, everyone else give your other piece of info.
Also, Ur-Quan, take note: If a random town role scries a random other person, they will get Innocent exactly half of the time. Scries give information about the scrier, not the scried.

[Internet Flea]

I scried insert name here as Guilty.

[Zjoot]

I scried someone as guilty.

[Grue Bait]

I scried Ur-Quan.

[Saposhiente]

Grue, you were last, so reveal your other info half.
After that, everyone else reveals their other half.

[Grue Bait]

Oh, whoops. He's innocent.

[Internet Flea]

I also scried Ur-Quan.

[Matthias2207]

Day 1 has started and ends in 72 hours or when a majority has been reached.

[Saposhiente]

24 hours? 24 hours is far too short. I'd had 72 hour deadlines. Also the super awesome day-requires-a-majority voting system that allows us to end day early when we're done talking.

[Zjoot]

I scried Ur-Quan too...

[Ur-Quan]

Aww hell. That means I'm actually the one with the completely right scry, or something near that.

[Saposhiente]

{table=head]Target|Saposhiente|Grue Bait|The Grimmace|Internet Flea|Ur-Quan
Saposhiente|||||Innocent
Grue Bait
The Grimmace|Guilty
Internet Flea
Ur-Quan||Innocent|Guilty|Guilty
[/table]
Three Guilty results, therefore either the mafia returned Guilty xor the Sane Cop scried the mafia (And the Insane Cop did not). Nobody scried Grue Bait, who got an Innocent result, therefore Grue Bait is confirmed innocent. (Woo analysis with two sentences)
If Grimmace is the Mafia, he made an incorrect play, allowing Grue to be confirmed. Ur-Quan is either innocent or faking noobishness *goes to check some other games he has played* Wolf-Quan doesn't seem likely. He'd also be imparting upon himself the disadvantage of going first. Thus, Internet Flea.
Ur-Quan, take note: You could easily be either Mafia (In which case I'm Insane and Grue Bait is Naive) or Naive (In which case Grue Bait is Sane), in addition to Sane (In which case Grue Bait is Naive)

[Ur-Quan]

I don't bother with smart play when I don't need it. Truth is the best course of action herearound, when someone else takes the lead.

[Saposhiente]

I don't bother with smart play when I don't need it. Truth is the best course of action herearound, when someone else takes the lead.

Not to say that you're necessarily being noobish. Your play is also consistent with apathy, but I find that an unlikely Mafia disguise. Though really, noobishness and apathy are like stupidity and parody: Indistinguishable in many cases.

[Zjoot]

Grue Bait is confirmed innocent.

For some reson I'm not seeing what led to this conclusion. Probably would get it if I thought a litte more on it, but could you just walk me through it?

[Grue Bait]

(In which case Grue Bait is Naive)

So I might be Fluttershy? yay!
And Internet Flea, I suppose, to test Sapo's logic.