Dethy IX: Wait. Ponies?

[Internet Flea]

Don't get too carried away yet.

I was hoping we'd get a mafia claiming innocent so when I revealed that I scried Ur-Quan as Innocent we'd confirm Rainbow Dash.

Not bothering with analysis I'm voting Grue Bait for getting the same scry I did.

EDIT:Not getting too far with my analysis other than to see that Sapo can't be the Sane Cop.

[Saposhiente]

For some reson I'm not seeing what led to this conclusion. Probably would get it if I thought a litte more on it, but could you just walk me through it?

Okay, so if you have the four town roles scry each other, no mafioso involved, you will get two Innocent results and two Guilty results. With the mafioso, there will be one extra Innocent or Guilty result. However, if the Sane Cop scries the mafioso, there will be one less Innocent result and one more Guilty result. Meanwhile, if the Insane cop scries the mafioso, the there will be one less Guilty result and one more Innocent result. If you add these possibilities together, you get:
{table=head]#Innocent|#Guilty|Meaning
4|1|Mafia gave a result of Innocent AND the Insane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Sane Cop didn't)
3|2|Mafia gave a result of Innocent OR the Insane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Sane Cop didn't)
2|3|Mafia gave a result of Guilty OR the Sane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Insane Cop didn't)
1|4|Mafia gave a result of Guilty AND the Sane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Insane Cop didn't)
[/table]
Since nobody scried Grue Bait, clearly the Sane Cop did not scry Grue Bait. The only other possibility is that he gave a result of Guilty, but he didn't. Thus, he can't be mafia.

[Saposhiente]

Internet Flea Internet Flea at deadline
Analyzing...

[Internet Flea]

Spoiler

Show

Three Guilty results, therefore either the mafia returned Guilty xor the Sane Cop scried the mafia (And the Insane Cop did not). Nobody scried Grue Bait, who got an Innocent result, therefore Grue Bait is confirmed innocent. (Woo analysis with two sentences)


Okay, so if you have the four town roles scry each other, no mafioso involved, you will get two Innocent results and two Guilty results. With the mafioso, there will be one extra Innocent or Guilty result. However, if the Sane Cop scries the mafioso, there will be one less Innocent result and one more Guilty result. Meanwhile, if the Insane cop scries the mafioso, the there will be one less Guilty result and one more Innocent result. If you add these possibilities together, you get:
{table=head]#Innocent|#Guilty|Meaning
4|1|Mafia gave a result of Innocent AND the Insane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Sane Cop didn't)
3|2|Mafia gave a result of Innocent OR the Insane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Sane Cop didn't)
2|3|Mafia gave a result of Guilty OR the Sane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Insane Cop didn't)
1|4|Mafia gave a result of Guilty AND the Sane Cop scried the mafioso (But the Insane Cop didn't)
[/table]
Since nobody scried Grue Bait, clearly the Sane Cop did not scry Grue Bait. The only other possibility is that he gave a result of Guilty, but he didn't. Thus, he can't be mafia.

All of this is wrong now.

[Saposhiente]

Target	Saposhiente	Grue Bait	The Grimmace	Internet Flea	Ur-Quan
Saposhiente					Innocent
Grue Bait
The Grimmace	Guilty
Internet Flea
Ur-Quan		Innocent	Guilty	Innocent

Now nobody is confirmed innocent.
Imma leave my point on IF because that change would be great for him as mafia if he was sure he could get away with it. Anyone else have ideas?

[Internet Flea]

If Grimmace were Mafia, Grue and I would be Naive and Sane, Ur-Quan would be insane and Sapo would be Mafia. So Grimmace is cleared.

[Saposhiente]

No, I would be Paranoid. You forgot Paranoid.
Nobody is cleared.

[Internet Flea]

No, I would be Paranoid. You forgot Paranoid.
Nobody is cleared.

Read it again.

If Grimmace is Mafia, you or Ur-Quan also have to be Mafia; it's the only way we get that many innocent scries.

The fact you missed it twice makes me suspicious, Saposhiente.

[Saposhiente]

Two posts ago, your logic was off but you got to the right conclusion. If Grimmace was mafia, I would have to be Paranoid, since I was the only other person with guilty. Because of this error you made, I did not fully re-analyze the situation. However, I did make one oversight that I hadn't thought of when I thought of my trick. I saw that Grimmace had been scried by someone (me) who could be the Insane Cop, therefore he could possibly be mafia despite having given a guilty result. However, I failed to take into account that I couldn't be the Insane Cop if he was mafia; I only could if he was not.
Thus, the correction in my analysis trick: If there are three people with one result and two people with the other, someone is confirmed innocent iff they are in the minority and were not scried by anyone in the majority. It's those last words I hadn't had. Because Grimmace was scried by someone in the minority (me), not the majority, Grimmace is confirmed innocent.
Internet Flea for showing someone else confirmed innocent when there was a good chance it would go unnoticed, hurting his chances as Mafia.
Grue Bait by elimination.

[Internet Flea]

Looking at it, I'm going to go back to Grue Bait, and warn the Mafia that If Grue Bait is Innocent, then Ur-Quan cannot be Naive because it would require Grue and me to be Sane and Insane which can't be true.

So if this doesn't end the day, Mafia gets to pick between killing the confirmed townie or killing a useful scrier.

[Grue Bait]

So you lied about info? And you think I'm evil? I really don't follow this logic.

[Saposhiente]

He was hoping that because he had lied, a mafioso assuming that he was telling the truth would make the wrong play. I'm willing to believe him because, if he was mafia, this change doesn't affect the number of confirmed innocents and thus his odds of being lynched, while meanwhile he also made a valuable contribution to town that might have been missed by other people had he just agreed with the leader.
You can vote whoever. Internet flea if you like. Let Grimmace, le Confirmed Innocent, decide.
Grue Bait Grue Bait @ Deadline so that Ur-quan can't accidentally hammer or "accidentally" hammer without Grimmace's input.

[Internet Flea]

So you lied about info? And you think I'm evil? I really don't follow this logic.

Well I know I'm not, and I know the Grimmace isn't, so that leaves you, Ur-Quan and Sapo and your death gives me the most info I think.

[Zjoot]

Interesting that you did that IF. I stumbled onto a similar notion after I had already posted my true result. I'm glad it was only one of us. While the more concrete logic of the game (analysis of scry results and such) is lost on me right now, I do have one specific suspicion to voice, and that is against Mr. Bait. In conversation earlier, I voiced my wariness about Sapo. (I was worried you would be the only one taking the lead and that you might do something manipulative, but all of your logic has been sound and helpful, and you yourself have been very cooperative.) Point is, Grue Bait was pretty quick to agree, but he was also very quick to jump onto the logic that Sapo then posted in voting for Internet Flea. I found that pretty suspicious. Plus by process of elimination, I am pretty sure IF and Sapo are innocent, and anything suspicious on Ur Quan's part seems, like Sapo mentioned earlier, based more on apathy than anything else.

So, in the hopes that this actually makes any sense at all (since I am typing this at almost midnight, so who knows how well my brain is functioning right now) I'll put a vote on Grue Bait (at the deadline)

[Saposhiente]

Okay then.
Grue Bait at deadline Grue Bait

[Saposhiente]

Decided to re-look over Grue Bait's reaction to me (wrongly, because Internet Flea was lying at the time) saying that he was confirmed innocent, to look for further clues in either direction.

So I might be Fluttershy? yay!
And Internet Flea, I suppose, to test Sapo's logic.

(Emphasis mine)
What he said implies that my logic might be wrong, that we should determine whether or not this is the case. If he was a townie, he would have been certain that my logic was correct (for it was given the information of the time). It came to one conclusion, the one thing that he would have already known. There's a good chance he would have accepted the logic at face value solely because he was the one that was confirmed innocent. But he phrased his reaction like he had doubts. And what doubt is stronger than knowing it to be false, when the logic claims the mafia to be confirmed innocent?

[Grue Bait]

Or I, you know, pay attention to the possibility that you're the wolf.

[Saposhiente]

That's ad hominem, though fortunately you're calling me a wolf instead of something else *cough*. Whether or not I am a wolf does not change whether or not my logic is valid. Anyone who feels like it can confirm that my logic has been correct. (Aside from my one error which happened after your comment and thus is not relevant to your judgement). This also serves to speak to my innocence.

[Internet Flea]

That's ad hominem, though fortunately you're calling me a wolf instead of something else *cough*. Whether or not I am a wolf does not change whether or not my logic is valid. Anyone who feels like it can confirm that my logic has been correct. (Aside from my one error which happened after your comment and thus is not relevant to your judgement) This also serves to speak to my innocence.

Plus I plan on lynching you tomorrow so there's no worries there.

[Grue Bait]

That's ad hominem, though fortunately you're calling me a wolf instead of something else *cough*. Whether or not I am a wolf does not change whether or not my logic is valid. Anyone who feels like it can confirm that my logic has been correct. (Aside from my one error which happened after your comment and thus is not relevant to your judgement) This also serves to speak to my innocence.

I'm not saying you're logic is flawed, it's actually quite brilliant, as are you. I'm saying it's quite easy for you to twist it to say what you want, and unfortunately, I'm the victim of this. However, there's one mistake with it. I don't know where it is, or how it happened, but there's a huge, glaring problem. I'm not Mafia, I'm a villager. And I'm also not saying you're the wolf. But! There's five of us here, so 25% says you're a wolf. Pretty big chance, and I'm not taking it.

[Saposhiente]

Statements of fact and deductive reasoning cannot be twisted to an attentive audience. Assumptions, perhaps, but not logic. The reason I am voting to lynch you is because of behaviors which I believe make you likelier mafia, not certain. A. Internet Flea has been a valuable, contributing Town player, and while he did admit to lying it was when a townie could have motivation to lie but a mafioso would have no motivation to do so unless he thought it would make him look townier. B. Ur-quan's behavior does *not* resemble how he plays as mafia. This alone makes you more suspicious by elimination, and then the bit about "testing" my logic is another piece on the pile.

[Internet Flea]

But! There's five of us here, so 25% says you're a wolf.

Grimmace is cleared so unless you're counting yourself it'd be 33%.

Yet another reason to lynch you; bad math.

[Grue Bait]

Forgot about Grimmace, cleared myself. Leaves 4, so 25%

[Ur-Quan]

Or y'know, I could be the wolf. With awesome play which confused you all... or y'know, not. Damn it, why can't everyone deduct around me like that when I AM a wolf? :/

However, I feel Internet Flea is the most doubtful 'round here.

[Zjoot]

I think I'll vote for Grue Bait as well.

[Matthias2207]

Soft deadline has arrived!
24 hours left!

[Saposhiente]

We already got 3 votes
Day was over 2 days ago

[Matthias2207]

Really?
You're right!

Day 1 has ended!

Grue Bait died.
He was the mafia zebra.
Town wins!
For those interested:
Saposhiente: Rainbow Dash (Paranoid)
Grue Bait: Zecora (Mafia)
The Grimmace: Pinkie Pie (Insane)
Internet Flea: Fluttershy (Naive)
Ur-Quan: Twilight Sparkle (Sane)

[Ur-Quan]

Told you I was the only sane person around.

[Saposhiente]

Said the guy who voted for Fluttershy.
[rainbow]NOBODY TREATS FLUTTERSHY LIKE THAT! HOW DARE YOU?[/rainbow]