A Magical World War, or What if Voldemort had won?

[Ravens_cry]

I think the issue here is that neither group can really take the other on. The death eaters aren't likely to take the necessary steps to take over the government properly and they can't win in an open war. However, there is very little way for any muggles to pick out wizards in a crowd so as soon as any attempted plan goes south, they could pull back into obscurity and try again. Granted the muggles might be significantly more prepared at that point, but I don't know if you can defeat a group of wizards who are properly prepared to counter muggles.

Actually, it would be fairly easy to weed out wizards from the general population. Find people who seem uncomfortable or unfamiliar with modern technology, like pants, yet have, or at least claim, to lived in a developed country for many years.

[Tvtyrant]

Honestly I don't think the wizards have a chance. If news of evil wizards got out, what do you think the other nations in the world would do? There would be a rather vicious purging process in most of the dictatorships better run nations, and then it would just be Voldemort and his gang hanging out in England.

[Istari]

Actually, it would be fairly easy to weed out wizards from the general population. Find people who seem uncomfortable or unfamiliar with modern technology, like pants, yet have, or at least claim, to lived in a developed country for many years.

Perhaps, but requires picking out likely wizards and tracking them down to individually question them. Considering that if a war was going on, I suspect that most wizards would probably apperate away if they thought they might be pulled in for questioning.

[Ravens_cry]

Perhaps, but requires picking out likely wizards and tracking them down to individually question them. Considering that if a war was going on, I suspect that most wizards would probably apperate away if they thought they might be pulled in for questioning.

Which proves they are wizards. Remember, the Muggle governments know about wizards. They probably keep tabs as best they can; they would be foolish in the extreme not to.

[CapnRedBeard]

100% of the wizards would not be on the wizards side. Divide and conquer is the oldest and most successful strat ever. You would have "traitors" a plenty. Wizards that just did not want to fight. Disagreements amoungst themselves on how to proceed. This isn't a 12,000 headed beast...it's 12,000 wizards having to elect a leader...follow him completely...

Whereas humans have such a numbers advantage that wizards couldn't even sleep. They'd be hunted...hard.

Muggles know the magic of technology. How long before they can scan areas and find wizards?

[CapnRedBeard]

Let's really look at the technology of the world...muggle magic.

The year we are fighting in is 1998? After the internet...right?

Do the wizards have ANY communication as powerful as the internet?
Satellites? GPS? Cell phones? As reliable as our tech? As easy to master as our tech? An 8 year old in Australia can communicate with a 5 year old in Boston, USA. Can wizard children do anything of that sort using magic?

Our magic isn't hocus pocus wave a wand and sprinkle some powder...it's instantaneous and usable by every single one of us equally. Do I need to be a powerful arch-wizard with 20 years experience in the dark arts to watch a satellite video feed of a suspected lair?

Teleportation is great for them...I can communicate with agents all over the world as fast as anyone can teleport. All I have to do is talk into a mic...teleport 20 times...i just have to talk a few words 20 times.

Just how many times can a wizard teleport before tiring? 24/7 tracking.

There has to be some measurable residue/energy emitted when magic is used. Wizards that are not onboard with fighting 6 billion people will help us find that traceable signature.

Giants can be cut down. Dragons and the like hit with bullets/rockets n the like. How do wizards detect missiles? Nukes are off the table...but that leaves muggles with about 12,000 varieties of missiles. If a place like Hogwart's exists in reality in this scenario...it's rubble. Any building that held more than 5 wizards is rubble.

[Tiki Snakes]

When I clicked on the thread, I was expecting a discussion of the reprocussions of Voldemort's takeover of Magical Britain, specifically how the rest of the wizarding world would react to Voldemort siezing power.

Kind of dissapointed to find it's just yet another Wizards vs Muggles thread, to be honest. Though it was almost worth it for the Muggle-Pants link there.

[Anteros]

Could wizards with the powers we see in Harry Potter conquer the world? Yes.

Could Harry Potter wizards conquer the world? Not even close.

They have the power, but they're far, far too stupid. Not really much else to say about it honestly...

[Ravens_cry]

When I clicked on the thread, I was expecting a discussion of the reprocussions of Voldemort's takeover of Magical Britain, specifically how the rest of the wizarding world would react to Voldemort siezing power.

Kind of dissapointed to find it's just yet another Wizards vs Muggles thread, to be honest. Though it was almost worth it for the Muggle-Pants link there.

Does Rowling go into much detail about the rest of the world for any meaningful discussion to be had?
***
While electronics may not work directly inside magic rich or intentionally shielded areas, what about a laser microphone?
No actual electronics is inside the building, so there is nothing for the technology inhibiting voodoo to disrupt.
Flyover with spy drone or reconnaissance satellites might also provide valuable intelligence.

[Terry576]

Guys, they can Obliviate. They literally have a do-over spell for any situation involving Muggles.

[The Glyphstone]

Obliviate isn't a rewind-time spell, it just erases memories, and we lack any solid information on how precise it is/how far back it can reach, or for that matter how strong it is.

[Fragenstein]

Honestly I don't think the wizards have a chance. If news of evil wizards got out, what do you think the other nations in the world would do? There would be a rather vicious purging process in most of the dictatorships better run nations, and then it would just be Voldemort and his gang hanging out in England.

There'd be a lot of paranoia, yes. There would also be a lot of lynching. Unfortunately, since wizards are identified as people who act and dress strangely... that's bad news for any regular con-goer that I've ever met.

Man. A lot of variables here that we really have to figure out. What's Voldemort's goal? His insanity would point towards the extinction of all muggledom, but is he really that far gone? Does he think there are enough pure-blooded wizards left to propogate without suicidle degrees of inbreeding?

Actually, he might. I believe that was an issue within Tom's own bloodline and the purebloods don't see it as a problem.

So if extinction is the goal, the Deatheaters would likely open with a series of lightning strikes. Show up in a town, kill everyone, vanish without a trace. That's going to be pretty effective. What muggle is going to see masses of mysterious deaths and think that wizards are responsible? Tens of thousands might be wiped out in Great Brittain alone before anyone catches on.

And that's just one nation. Dark wizards from all over the globe are likely to execute simultaneous attacks. An unprepared muggle world is going to be devastated by this initial movement.

But so what? Voldemort has already shown he wouldn't start by targeting the military. Even if they kill millions before the word 'wizard' is even mentioned. There are billions of able-bodied muggles to deal with. Without spells of mass destruction... the wizards are going to be in trouble here.

However, drone's are unlikely to discover any hardened wizarding installation. No police helicopter, news chopper or other form or air transport over London has spotted Diagon Alley. When a wizard hides something, it stays hidden.

Hogwarts isn't the only British school, just the most prestigious. There are other schools, offices and communities all over the world and a World Cup to rival football in its gatherings. Those are never spotted.

I would like to see the exact quote Rowling's made about machine gun/sniper vulnerability, however. Is that an unprepared wizard she was talking about? With the correct protection spells in place and the wand-wielder made ready for war, would they still be as vulnerable?

Oh... and, yes. They do have radios. When Harry goes underground, the resistance makes use of secret broadcasts to disseminate information. Plus the earlier books have the Weasley family watching a broadcast performance. I just can't remember if that was a television or another radio, however.

[Avilan the Grey]

WOG has stated, as we all know, that a powerful wizard vs a muggle with a shotgun is at least 50-50 and probably a sure muggle win. And that's a farmer with a gun. Now imagine if MI5 or KGB got their hands on some wizards...

Simply put, Voldy and the gang has done nothing that muggles haven't already done to eachother (just by different means, perhaps) and well... if push really came to show? To borrow from the Other Harry: To wake up the human population is a nuclear event. It will not end well for the magically skilled.

As for hidden places... What happens if we ignore the actual hidden alley, or house, and instead just detonate a bomb at the correct place, even if the house isn't visible? For that matter, have an undercover mudblood smuggle a bomb in, or transmit coordinates from within?

[pendell]

Our magic isn't hocus pocus wave a wand and sprinkle some powder...it's instantaneous and usable by every single one of us equally. Do I need to be a powerful arch-wizard with 20 years experience in the dark arts to watch a satellite video feed of a suspected lair?

Having just had an .. interesting .. day yesterday, I feel compelled to make this observation.

All the crystal balls or satellite surveillance or human spies or tea leaves or whatever -- muggle or wizard -- are of limited use if the user doesn't have the sense to understand what he sees.

It takes humility and love of the truth to make sense of observations, whether magical or mundane, and to escape the traps of cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, and all the other nasty traps the human mind can play on itself.

Intelligence is useful only to the intelligent.

We haven't seen enough of muggles in the potterverse to know if any of them are capable of reasoning well, and therefore of successfully prosecuting a war. But I've seen nothing to indicate that Voldemort is. If Palpatine was leading the wizards, that might be a different story. But Voldemort? Highly unlikely.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Fragenstein]

WOG has stated, as we all know, that a powerful wizard vs a muggle with a shotgun is at least 50-50 and probably a sure muggle win. And that's a farmer with a gun. Now imagine if MI5 or KGB got their hands on some wizards...

This is the 'word' I'd like to see. What context was Rowling putting that into? Is she flat out stating that wizards have no form of shielding that can stop fast flying lead, or is she saying that the farmer with the gun has gotten the drop on the wizard?

Links, anyone?

Simply put, Voldy and the gang has done nothing that muggles haven't already done to eachother (just by different means, perhaps) and well... if push really came to show? To borrow from the Other Harry: To wake up the human population is a nuclear event. It will not end well for the magically skilled.

Yeah, this is my gut instinct -- that the wizards don't stand a chance. But we don't know that for certain without a few more hard clarifications. Could Voldemort secretly conquer the world by infiltrating governments after a proper period of study? Absolutely.

Would he, though? Probably not. Nor would he be likely to just throw open his robes and piss on the front steps of Downing street. The secret, initial slaughtering of muggles would be horrific. Unfortunately, it probably wouldn't be specifically directed at the military.

As for hidden places... What happens if we ignore the actual hidden alley, or house, and instead just detonate a bomb at the correct place, even if the house isn't visible? For that matter, have an undercover mudblood smuggle a bomb in, or transmit coordinates from within?

Well you have to find those places first. They've gone undetected for centuries. 12 Grimmauld place was protected to the point where even the people living in adjoining buildings had no idea it was there. The place practically existed in another dimension.

An undercover mudblood is going to be tricky. Deatheaters are very particular about family backgrounds and Voldemort is one of the greatest mind-readers ever born.

But none of that matters given the sheer force of numbers the dark wizards would face. Unless they come up with a way to make themselves immune to gunfire, they're eventually done for. That's why I want to see Rowling's actual quote about the shotgun in context.

[Eldan]

Little Math exercise:

Can wizards wipe out humans?

We have about 12000 wizards.

We have about 7 billion humans.

Newest estimate I could find shows that the world population increased by 78 millions in the year 2011.

So, assuming all 12000 wizards go on an Adava Kedavra campaign. Each of them has to kill 6500 humans per year to keep numbers even. That's about 17.8 humans per day.


I'm surprised. That's actually doable. I thought it would be more, but, if they can get high enough efficiency going in finding humans, that's one dead human per wizard per hour with six hours left for sleep.

[Fragenstein]

I'm surprised. That's actually doable. I thought it would be more, but, if they can get high enough efficiency going in finding humans, that's one dead human per wizard per hour with six hours left for sleep.

That's why the death toll is going to be so high in the beginning. It will take a LONG time for the world to come to grips with being attacked by actual wizards. Confusion and dissonance will prevent organized resistance, and during that time the slaughtering will continue.

Once the humans catch on, however, and formulate retaliations...?

Well, again I want to actually see Rowling's quote on a properly warded wizard being vulnerable to gunfire.

[Avilan the Grey]

This is the 'word' I'd like to see. What context was Rowling putting that into? Is she flat out stating that wizards have no form of shielding that can stop fast flying lead, or is she saying that the farmer with the gun has gotten the drop on the wizard?

Links, anyone?

...

An undercover mudblood is going to be tricky. Deatheaters are very particular about family backgrounds and Voldemort is one of the greatest mind-readers ever born.

Trying to find the link.

Anyway, first of all 99% of all wizards has no idea what guns are. Hermione (I think) highlights that fact in the beginning of Azkaban, where the wizard newspaper explains what a gun is "it's a kind of wand muggles uses on eachother". Second, a trigger is at least in theory always quicker than a spell, if only for the waving and shouting part.

"Abra-" (Boom! Headshot!) anyone?

Also, even a wast majority of those that knows what guns are has absolutely no knowledge how far muggle technology has reached in the last century. You might be prepared for a handgun... but are you prepared for bombs? Flamethrowers? Chemical and Bacterial warfare? Nuclear weapons? With the exception of a few technophiles like Mr Weasley, it seems they only have adopted early 20th century tech, tops (radio, manual typewriters (which they converted to magical ones).

As for your other point... I don't think there are enough death-eaters to monitor everything and everyone.

Edit: also: there is NOTHING that propells modern technology faster than warfare. As soon as we catch on to what goes on, I am expecting to see both actual magic employed on our side as well as specific anti-magic measurements taken. Quickly.

[Fragenstein]

... Flamethrowers? Chemical and Bacterial warfare...?

Yes, they have spells to grant immunity to fire plus spells to repell harmful agents. These can be cast once and then maintained for free. They also have spells to repell hurled objects... but clearly a .50 round fired from 100 yards away would take a wizard's head off by surprise.

But what about a prepared wizard who's fully armored himself in the latest and greatest protection spells?

I don't know. I'd like to see what Rowling has to say about it.

Nuclear weapons...

We've been instructed to discard the nuclear option as no nation on earth would be willing to nuke itself to solve the wizarding problem. I'm not so sure. If the Deatheaters manage to establish a lethal enough presence, then some cowboy is going to see it as the ultimate option and push the button.

As for your other point... I don't think there are enough death-eaters to monitor everything and everyone.

I don't think there are even enough Deatheaters to get the job done. But, like I said, we need to see exactly how well protected a fully prepared, magical killing machine is against conventional weapons.

[Ravens_cry]

I don't know. I'd like to see what Rowling has to say about it.

I believe she said something along the lines of "In a fight between a Muggle with a shotgun and a wizard with a wand, the Muggle will win."

[pendell]

IMO, nuclear weapons are pointless because it's using an axe to spank a fly. A war against wizards is a war of intelligence, much like terrorism vs. counter-terrorism. An identified wizard can always be taken down by a muggle swarm. Wizards win only so long as they can stay hidden.

In short, the wizards-vs-muggle war degenerates into a global werewolf game.

Hmm? Has anyone run that over in the games forum?
Alpha -Voldemort
Devil - ??

Other roles?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Fragenstein]

IMO, nuclear weapons are pointless because it's using an axe to spank a fly.

Maybe, but that's only if Voldemort breaks from his established tactics and stops with the mass slaughter under cover of darkness (or conjured fog).

If the muggles are watching and see where the Deatheaters have gathered to perform their next purge, a nuke or a MOAB might be enough to end the war.

If the Deatheaters get smart and turn this into a secret war of infiltration and assassination... I don't think we'd stand much of a chance.

And I don't want to know what 'something along the lines' information Rowlings has given. I want to know the exact context in which it was layed out.

[polity4life]

Another thing to consider is how the muggles will respond to an overt attack by the magic world. I'm not saying this is the obvious conclusion but I wouldn't be surprised, given a large enough assault by magicians, that many countries would push very hard for a response backed by the public that is being inundated with Great War and World War II style propaganda that dehumanizes the enemy to a fantastic degree. That would develop the resolve to wage a possibly prolonged war for quite some time.

But even if that doesn't work, I'm sure the mother of all bombs will meet up with the father of all bombs for a date anywhere remotely considered a magic-haven time and time again, or until the money runs out.

I don't bring up these conventional "super weapons" as evidence of a muggle silver bullet. I bring these up because these weapons are considered less effective than heavy utilization of smaller weapons that more vehicles can carry, and both of these vastly outnumber these big box items.

Also, just to give you a better idea of the sheer volume of military materiel that the magicians would encounter, give this a read. It's from 2002 but it really gives you an idea of power that muggle nations can bring to bear in an all-out war.

[pendell]

And I don't want to know what 'something along the lines' information Rowlings has given. I want to know the exact context in which it was layed out.

Sorry I can't help. I've done looking on AccioQuote and Leaky Cauldron but the specifics aren't showing up. It's a quote that's floating around the internet all over the place but cannot be traced to a specific interview. I suspect there's been some context drift since the original statement.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Ravens_cry]

And certain Muggles are aware of the paranormally-inclined, including those in high office, like the British Prime Minister and presumibly the President of the United States of America. Combine that with Mudblood wizards and witches defecting, Muggle technology, Wizard ignorance of the Muggle World and Death Eater arrogance, and well, it wouldn't be over by Christmas, but I think a Muggle victory can be presumed, as bloody as it will be.

[Fragenstein]

... but I think a Muggle victory can be presumed, as bloody as it will be.

Yeah. Wizards have it in them to conquer the world, but it'd take a less murderous mind than Voldemort's to lead them to it. Human death on a scale unseen in history, probably, but there are just too damn many of us.

A clever wizard army would make a study of the muggle world before they began any sort of campaign. Armed with enough knowledge of what real war is like, they could probably take us.

Remember that they can do more than just manipulate our minds and blow us to bits. They can also dominate our very environment. They can control weather, burn crops, animate cities and overwhelm technology with a concentrated effort.

A cold war against the wizards would likely have a much more dire ending for us.

[Bouregard]

Guys, they can Obliviate. They literally have a do-over spell for any situation involving Muggles.

The most pointless spell against muggle that I can think of (crucio is a close second thought, and polyjuice the third).


If you would obliviate away all my memories from the past week:
You wouldn't change my notebook, my browsing history, my colleagues who want something from me I didn't remember, CCTV, my calendar, my memos.

Muggles effectivly outsourced their brain. The spell would fool me for a couple of hours. If things don't add up I will get suspicious and I will trust gadgets only I have access to far more then my own wetware.


Oh and about a fully protected wizard with the best in protection spells Diagon Alley has to offer:

A bullet doesn't need to penetrate the shield. Think bout knights in plate armor vs. maces.

Also while they may survive it, their wands and clothing will not. And a wizard without a wand is bloody useless.

Fun stuff to use against wizards: stun grenades, tazers




Also if the wizards are smart they stay on the ground. A broom or a flyspell is an instant giveaway that they are the enemy and not a harmless civilian. And yes modern anti air weapons are capable of shooting large bird sized objects out of the sky. They spend quite a bit money to find ways to stop wasting surface to air missiles on birds.

[Kobold-Bard]

One very important factor is are we including magical beasts into the equation? A single Dementor could theoretically kill an entire community while invisible and I'm not even sure if they can be hurt through physical means. In the movies maybe, but in the books they are kind of insubstantial, more of a presence than anything else. We also hear that giants can create effects not dissimilar to tornadoes, so without too many giants, and there are a bunch, civilian centers would take massive damage.

...

Magical critters are the only way I can see the Wizards having a hope in this. As far as I recall magic is powerful, but limited in scope; individual Wizards have to deal with individual targets, they don't really have any wide ranging power in spells alone.

But like you said a single Dementor can wipe out an entire community (or military or political or religiously significant target) in a short space of time. And unlike Wizards, Muggles have no defence against Dementors.

A Basilisk would be a devastating weapon, and can kill enemy Wizards as easily as easily as Muggles.

And then there's Dragons. While I can't remember how powerful they are in HP, the sheer concept of being attacked by goddamn dragons would freak most civilians out to the point of being rendered useless.

[ChaosLord29]

To answer the question regarding Wizards vs Muggles armed with guns, Rowling herself said that the average wizard is no more dangerous than an average person armed with an automatic weapon.

Moreover, while it was never canon in the books, Dolores Umbridge uses Protego to protect herself from the arrows of the centaurs, and McGonagal uses it to block the swing of a giant's club. If not for these incidents I never would have thought the spell would have been effective against physical objects.

So, a strong shield charm would probably protect a wizard from bullets for a time. But there's two more things there to consider. Can a wizard raise a shield spell faster than a bullet can be fired from a gun? My instincts tell me no. Secondly, will a shield spell hold up indefinitely to concentrated fire? If the wizard casting it is powerful enough, yes.

The real problem is, and this is pointed out in the 6th book,

Fred and George Weasley realised that most adult wizards, even those employed by the Ministry of Magic, could not produce a functional Shield Charm. They used this to their advantage when marketing their line of protective clothing (hats, cloaks, etc), upon which Shield Charms were cast.

[pendell]

Is this what you're thinking of ?

Quite clearly, the first thing one must do when you imprison a wizard is to confiscate his wand; a wizard with a wand is as well-armed as a Muggle with a gun, and significantly more capable. Yet wizards do have some ability to perform magic without wands; we see Harry do so on a number of occasions, when his tension is particularly high. We also believe Apparition does not require wands. There are evidently spells that can prevent Apparition, and of course those must be set on the prison proper. That does leave the possibility of an escape being carried out by a Wizard or Witch who does wandless magic when very tense. This may be the rationale for the Dementors: by damping all good feelings, it may be impossible for the prisoners to become agitated enough to perform wandless magic. Despite all these safeguards, however, it is certainly possible for a witch or wizard to break out of Azkaban; Dumbledore has stated that he could break out of Azkaban if he was imprisoned, and large numbers of Death Eaters do so on two known occasions, though it must be noted that both of these major breakouts occurred after the Dementors had abandoned Azkaban to enter Voldemort's service.

I don't know if that 'analysis' is directly sourced from Rowling or not -- I suspect not. But a quick jot of over-analysis suggests that it does not say an armed muggle is more powerful than a wizard -- only that the two are comparable although the wizard is "significantly more capable".

Respectfully,

Brian P.