OOTS #857 - The Discussion Thread

[Emperordaniel]

Aren't you overlooking possibility that A is under the control of a cursed book?

Lordy knows, I've gotten so deep into some books that it'd take more than an ABD to make me look up.

A cursed book? Hmmm... epileptic tree time!

[Gusion]

Aren't you overlooking possibility that A is under the control of a cursed book?

Lordy knows, I've gotten so deep into some books that it'd take more than an ABD to make me look up.

More evidence that those evil trees are out to get us!

[zimmerwald1915]

[unrelated]
Hey, when did Zimmerwald change his avatar? I like it, btw.
[/unrelated]

[unrelated]Early this morning, when the talented Dirtytabs completed it.[/unrelated]

[EmperorSarda]

Seeing how the scene of Aarindarius killing the imp was V's rejection of the idea that his former master would believe an imp, the scene most likely is what V sees in his/her mind. I.e. believing Aarindarius to be powerful. The scene isn't a statement of truth about the actual power of Aarindarius, but the perception that V has toward his master.

And the IFCC plays on V's perception of how powerful V thinks the former master is, that he is perhaps powerful enough to fix this mess. Turning to master and thus playing on V's sense of ego.

Is Aarindarius powerful? Most likely. Powerful enough to kill a dragon with class levels without a sweat? Probably not. Again, in a story telling sense it makes sense for V's perceptions of inadequacy to be played on, of having to face being humbled enough to run to master for help. It doesn't matter if the plan is workable, it is in the temptation. Turning the temptation from the heroic act of saving his family, of making a deep sacrifice, to V's own inadequacy, hir desire to not fail, to accept due to ego. That is what the temptation was about.

It doesn't matter if the plan was workable, only that V thought it could work, that he had other options. What mattered to the fiends was the reasoning that V took to accept the splice. It went from noble sacrifice to save his family to satisfying his own ego.

V was panicked and tired, and the impressions of Aarindarius are V's perceptions and not the perceptions of reality/word of Giant.

[skaddix]

Yeah even tired I don't think V is going to be so off on his/her masters abilities. Sure maybe not effortlessly but V should know if A could win or not.

[zimmerwald1915]

Isn't the point of this discussion to determine whether we can assume the elves have considerable military capability or not? The real question we should be asking is not "how powerful is A" but rather "does the Elven government have A at their disposal". Do we have enough evidence to make this determination?

[Bulldog Psion]

V was panicked and tired, and the impressions of Aarindarius are V's perceptions and not the perceptions of reality/word of Giant.

But it cannot be totally divorced from A's reality. I mean, no matter how tired and panicked an adult is, they aren't going to think that their college advisor is going to be able to fly to the moon under their own power to save them.

[Gusion]

Seeing how the scene of Aarindarius killing the imp was V's rejection of the idea that his former master would believe an imp, the scene most likely is what V sees in his/her mind. I.e. believing Aarindarius to be powerful. The scene isn't a statement of truth about the actual power of Aarindarius, but the perception that V has toward his master.

Seeing how V just finished fighting the dragon where it utilized an antimagic shell against him... tired or not, he wouldn't even consider using Aarindarius if he couldn't at least access 9th level spells.

It is worth noting that even if Aarindarius was level ~7 back when V was level 3... since V is at least level 15, I don't think it is a stretch to assume that A is 17+. That even gives a significant accelerated leveling increase to V since he is adventuring, while all impression is that A is not.

Disjunction only has a % chance of cracking an antimagic shell at that, so for his sake he had better be more than level 17.

[EmperorSarda]

Yeah even tired I don't think V is going to be so off on his/her masters abilities. Sure maybe not effortlessly but V should know if A could win or not.

Being able to beat an ancient dragon and one-shotting an ancient dragon with a spell (as implied by the panel) are two separate things.

Also, as there have been arguments about the Elven kingdom, something not mentioned is the trade war they are in with Cliffport. Their might is probably more economical than militaristic.

One possible suggestion is that since they only Greater Teleported a few operatives in to help the resistance is that the Elven Kingdom's tactics is in guerrilla warfare; sniping from trees and the like, and not much head on force. But enough to scare away or put off most invaders from attacking, such as Tarquin.

Also, note that the Elven Kingdom didn't teleport in small groups of soldiers. They only ported in two or three small insurgent groups (Note: Team Harrier) This is probably the measure of the Elven Kingdom's strength; small insurgent groups. Not massive armies.

[EmperorSarda]

But it cannot be totally divorced from A's reality. I mean, no matter how tired and panicked an adult is, they aren't going to think that their college advisor is going to be able to fly to the moon under their own power to save them.

What about adults who had not slept/meditated for four months? Again, I am not saying Aarindarius isn't that powerful, just that for story-telling purposes, the views we have of Aarindarius (well online views, I am not sure about prequel views of him) is skewed from V's point of view.

Seeing how V just finished fighting the dragon where it utilized an antimagic shell against him... tired or not, he wouldn't even consider using Aarindarius if he couldn't at least access 9th level spells.

Most likely. But since Mama Dragon used one Antimagic shell, it probably would have been a surprise that she had another up her sleeve.

What seems curious to me is that Aarindarius never cast sending to find out what was going on with his former pupil. You'd think he would be anxious about V once he heard about V's family and the dragon.

[zimmerwald1915]

Also, as there have been arguments about the Elven kingdom, something not mentioned is the trade war they are in with Cliffport. Their might is probably more economical than militaristic.

Their "might" is probably more imagined than real, since it doesn't seem to consist of economic or military power. Since we have seen Cliffport, and life there hasn't seemed affected at all by this "trade war", the "trade war" must either manifest its effects mostly in states other than the Elven Lands and Cliffport, or the Elves must be losing quite badly. The Elves seem to have abandoned all attempts at influencing the economic and political situation in their own hinterland (read: the Western Continent south of the Goaway Mountains) to such an extent that not only is their border closed to trade, but they do not notice or care that Zz'dtri impersonated an official of the Elven government for several months.

One possible suggestion is that since they only Greater Teleported a few operatives in to help the resistance is that the Elven Kingdom's tactics is in guerrilla warfare; sniping from trees and the like, and not much head on force. But enough to scare away or put off most invaders from attacking, such as Tarquin.

Guerrilla warfare is always the resort of a militarily weaker power. That the Elves' first plan is to undertake guerrilla warfare on their own soil is an indication of their profound weakness, and especially an ability to project meaningful power, not their strength.

Also, note that the Elven Kingdom didn't teleport in small groups of soldiers. They only ported in two or three small insurgent groups (Note: Team Harrier) This is probably the measure of the Elven Kingdom's strength; small insurgent groups. Not massive armies.

Agreed.

[Bulldog Psion]

What seems curious to me is that Aarindarius never cast sending to find out what was going on with his former pupil. You'd think he would be anxious about V once he heard about V's family and the dragon.

How would Aarindarius hear about V's family and the dragon?

And he's probably had dozens, if not hundreds, of pupils over his long lifespan. Why would he particularly care enough about one at random to keep track of them?

[Gusion]

Their "might" is probably more imagined than real, since it doesn't seem to consist of economic or military power.

That's exactly what we're disagreeing about and the discussion is on...

Since we have seen Cliffport, and life there hasn't seemed affected at all by this "trade war"

Eh, well, really we don't have enough information to make that statement. All we know about the "trade war" is that RC claims that Cliffport recognized Gobbotopia as a result of it.

The Elves seem to have abandoned all attempts at influencing the economic and political situation in their own hinterland (read: the Western Continent south of the Goaway Mountains) to such an extent that not only is their border closed to trade, but they do not notice or care that Zz'dtri impersonated an official of the Elven government for several months.

Elves are generally written as isolationists in the D&D world. For your statement "seem to have abandoned all attempts" to be accurate, that means you have plenty of evidence of prior attempts... what are they? I'm not familiar.

[zimmerwald1915]

That's exactly what we're disagreeing about and the discussion is on...

And in order to participate meaningfully in a discussion, one should stake out a position and defend it, while being prepared to be swayed by the evidence, no?

Eh, well, really we don't have enough information to make that statement. All we know about the "trade war" is that RC claims that Cliffport recognized Gobbotopia as a result of it.

This is suggestive in and of itself. The "trade war" seems to have no impact on Cliffport. We've been introduced to a bureaucrat that reports directly to the Mayor - the Police Chief - and he doesn't think it important to mention it at all, or even to suspect an elf saboteur as a serial killer. Neither does Julio Scoundrel, someone who would know the regulations if only so he could better subvert them. The clothing shop owner felt so secure from looters, foolishly, as it turned out, that he left his shop unattended for a long lunch break. An elven ranger was welcome at the tavern at which Belkar advertised, and Vaarsuvius' presence or attempts to cast spells provoked no reaction from the citizenry or officialdom at all. And yet the Elven-Cliffport trade war is supposed to be "long-standing". From what we've seen, it's had no effect on Cliffport at all. There can be two possible conclusions: either the lives of the common elves in the Elven Lands are similarly unaffected, or the elves are losing badly. The former position is supported by the state of Ivyleaf, which seems about as affected as Cliffport.

Elves are generally written as isolationists in the D&D world. For your statement "seem to have abandoned all attempts" to be accurate, that means you have plenty of evidence of prior attempts... what are they? I'm not familiar.

We are told that the Elves began their isolation, that they sealed up the Goaway border, five hundred years ago.

[Gusion]

The "trade war" seems to have no impact on Cliffport. There can be two possible conclusions: either the lives of the common elves in the Elven Lands are similarly unaffected, or the elves are losing badly. The former position is supported by the state of Ivyleaf, which seems about as affected as Cliffport.

Sure, the "trade war" has had no real effect on either party. I have no problem with that. We don't even know that there really IS a trade war do we? Just that RC believes there to be one.

We are told that the Elves began their isolation, that they sealed up the Goaway border, five hundred years ago.

Told where? I own a couple of the books but not all of them. Do we know how active they were before that?

Guerrilla warfare is always the resort of a militarily weaker power. That the Elves' first plan is to undertake guerrilla warfare on their own soil is an indication of their profound weakness, and especially an ability to project meaningful power, not their strength.

Oh, I forgot to answer this one. The elves tend toward using special ops troops as oppose to big armies. That's a sign of weakness? The United States government uses special ops all the time, does that mean we are a militarily weaker power as a result?

[Kish]

Most likely. But since Mama Dragon used one Antimagic shell, it probably would have been a surprise that she had another up her sleeve.

Dragons cast as sorcerers, not wizards. As soon as she used one Antimagic Field, it established that she could cast at least three total that day.

I'm strongly in the "trance-deprived and borderline insane Vaarsuvius not having said 'But' to one particular aspect of the ridiculous alternate plan the fiends rushed past him/her is no more evidence of Aarindarius' power than it is evidence that Durkon was actually with the fleet at the time" corner, but if--if--Vaarsuvius thought about the ancient black dragon's spells at all, s/he knew it included more Anti-Magic Fields.

[Gusion]

Dragons cast as sorcerers, not wizards. As soon as she used one Antimagic Field, it established that she could cast at least three total that day.

I'm strongly in the "trance-deprived and borderline insane Vaarsuvius not having said 'But' to one particular aspect of the ridiculous alternate plan the fiends rushed past him/her is no more evidence of Aarindarius' power than it is evidence that Durkon was actually with the fleet at the time" corner, but if--if--Vaarsuvius thought about the ancient black dragon's spells at all, s/he knew it included more Anti-Magic Fields.

If it helps, V considered the idea on his own prior to the IFCC mentioning it as well. While still "borderline insane", he at least thought about it twice. As you may recall, he was sane enough to remember that A had significant protections on his magical tower... doubting that the imp could even bypass them. That sounds like enough logical processing to consider the antimagic field in his course of action.

[ti'esar]

Hey, when did Zimmerwald change his avatar? I like it, btw.
[/unrelated]

Oh lord, not another one. It's like a plague.

[zimmerwald1915]

Sure, the "trade war" has had no real effect on either party. I have no problem with that. We don't even know that there really IS a trade war do we? Just that RC believes there to be one.

How is a trade war conducted? States competing with each other tend to raise tariffs on one another's chief exports, or may go so far as to embargo each other's products. Nothing of the sort is mentioned. Furthermore, they tend to pressure their trading partners to adopt similar policies. Azure City is supposedly an Elven ally, and yet commerce between Azure City and Cliffport seems uninterrupted. Without Redcloak's statement, I agree, from what we've seen the trade war doesn't seem to have had an effect on anything. Either this really is the case, and the trade war is largely phoney, or most of the effects have manifested where we haven't seen: in the Elven lands.

Told where? I own a couple of the books but not all of them. Do we know how active they were before that?

It's in the online comic, where Haley and Elan are talking with the cartographer.

Oh, I forgot to answer this one. The elves tend toward using special ops troops as oppose to big armies. That's a sign of weakness? The United States government uses special ops all the time, does that mean we are a militarily weaker power as a result?

I should have been clearer. EmperorSarda suggested that the Elves' primary military strategy would be to fight a guerrila war on their own territory. That implies two things: an inability to project power outside their own territory on any real scale, and military weakness compared to potential invaders. That is consistent with what we've seen from the Elves.

[Forikroder]

Being able to beat an ancient dragon and one-shotting an ancient dragon with a spell (as implied by the panel) are two separate things.

Also, as there have been arguments about the Elven kingdom, something not mentioned is the trade war they are in with Cliffport. Their might is probably more economical than militaristic.

One possible suggestion is that since they only Greater Teleported a few operatives in to help the resistance is that the Elven Kingdom's tactics is in guerrilla warfare; sniping from trees and the like, and not much head on force. But enough to scare away or put off most invaders from attacking, such as Tarquin.

Also, note that the Elven Kingdom didn't teleport in small groups of soldiers. They only ported in two or three small insurgent groups (Note: Team Harrier) This is probably the measure of the Elven Kingdom's strength; small insurgent groups. Not massive armies.

Hinjo said the elves are slow to go to war, from this we can deduce that he has been in contact with them since the siege of Azure city trying to convince them to go to war

so since there slow to go to war, i see no reason not to assume every part of there preparations are slow (deciding to go to war, getting army together, moving out e.t.c) so while the Elves are busy marshaling there forces and making the preparations neccesary to go to war (obtaining supplies for instance) they send 2 advance teams as scouts to rendevous with the Azure resistance, start small guerilla attacks on the goblins and find a good strategy to move there main force

i see no reason to assume that the Elves dont have an army

also i dont think it is implied that A could one shot an ABD (unless hes like level 100 or something) its only stated that A could beat an ABD

i mean is it even conceivable for someone to actually one shot an ABD? pretty sure ABDs have good saves

I should have been clearer. EmperorSarda suggested that the Elves' primary military strategy would be to fight a guerrila war on their own territory. That implies two things: an inability to project power outside their own territory on any real scale, and military weakness compared to potential invaders. That is consistent with what we've seen from the Elves.

weve only seen the elves use military might a grand total of one time, you cant say its consistant with there actions when you only have one piece of evidence to draw from

its like putting one dot on a graph and trying to draw conclusions from it theres simply a lack of evidence

[Gusion]

I agree, from what we've seen the trade war doesn't seem to have had an effect on anything. Either this really is the case, and the trade war is largely phoney, or most of the effects have manifested where we haven't seen: in the Elven lands.

You seem really stuck on that this grand trade war is bringing down the Elves without any support to back it up. I get you're convicted although I don't see why. I think it is likely just a mistake on Giant's part but you seem insistent on hanging onto it.

It's in the online comic, where Haley and Elan are talking with the cartographer.

Wait - THAT is your evidence? "See, the elves have the forested north half of the whole continent sealed up, and most of the rest is desert. The humans and the lizard races have been fighting over the livable scraps that are left for 500 years."

That statement does not support your argument. First there is no evidence that is when they "began their isolation." They could have begun it a thousand years ago and finally reached the ability to seal their lands off. Which brings up... if the elves are so powerless, I have to wonder how they managed to keep such a vast track of land when forested land is obviously a premium?

I should have been clearer. EmperorSarda suggested

Well, I'm not EmperorSarda, and I don't know why or where he'd arrive at such a suggestion.

[Forikroder]

Wait - THAT is your evidence? "See, the elves have the forested north half of the whole continent sealed up, and most of the rest is desert. The humans and the lizard races have been fighting over the livable scraps that are left for 500 years."

That statement does not support your argument. First there is no evidence that is when they "began their isolation." They could have begun it a thousand years ago and finally reached the ability to seal their lands off. Which brings up... if the elves are so powerless, I have to wonder how they managed to keep such a vast track of land when forested land is obviously a premium?

or the elves have lived in the forest for millenia and the humans/lizardfolk only arrived 500 years ago

its not like the Elves would even want the desert (unless they had druids trying to forest-ize it)

[rewinn]

How would Aarindarius hear about V's family and the dragon?

And he's probably had dozens, if not hundreds, of pupils over his long lifespan. Why would he particularly care enough about one at random to keep track of them?

If Elven institutions of higher learning are anything like IRL, it's about time that V gets hit up for contributions to the University Endowment
Epic level rangers could take tracking lessons from alumni associations!

---

ALSO:
The fact that the Elves hold so much nice forest land while humans and others fight over the desert strongly suggest that SOMEBODY has strong defenses.

[zimmerwald1915]

You seem really stuck on that this grand trade war is bringing down the Elves without any support to back it up. I get you're convicted although I don't see why. I think it is likely just a mistake on Giant's part but you seem insistent on hanging onto it.

I'm not insistant on any one thing. I'm isistant on an option. Either the trade war is not affecting anybody, or it is only affecting the Elves. The one thing we can be sure of is that it is not affecting Cliffport, which suggests that the elves aren't accomplishing whatever their goal is. That's not all that audacious a claim, really.

Wait - THAT is your evidence? "See, the elves have the forested north half of the whole continent sealed up, and most of the rest is desert. The humans and the lizard races have been fighting over the livable scraps that are left for 500 years."

Okay, what changed? If the elves withdrew into isolation 1184 years ago, what prompted the sudden transition to constant warfare in the rest of the continent 500 years ago? As far as we know, there are three epoch-making changes in the political history of the Western Continent: the isolation of the elves, the beginning of the constant warfare, and the beginning of Tarquin's scheme. Tarquin's scheme began around twenty years ago. It cannot be linked to the beginning of the constant warfare. I don't think it's a big leap to conclude that the elves' isolation and the collapse of the rest of the continent are not connected. If they weren't, they wouldn't have been mentioned in the same breath by the cartographer.

Well, I'm not EmperorSarda, and I don't know why or where he'd arrive at such a suggestion.

You asked why I argued a particular point. I told you: it was in response to his point.

[Forikroder]

If the elves withdrew into isolation 1184 years ago

assuming they ever werent isolated

what prompted the sudden transition to constant warfare in the rest of the continent 500 years ago?

what prompts war ever?

maybe 500 years ago is when non-elves discovered the continent

maybe 500 years ago some other war or calamity forced people into the desert and have been fighting over it ever since

maybe 500 years ago the non-elf settlements had grown large enough the only way to grow larger was by taking ground from there neighbours

maybe 500 years ago some warlord took control of a country and started a war (like how WW1 was started)

actually... am i on your ignore list? i wish there was an easy way to tell so i can figure out if theres even a point responding to you

[skaddix]

{{scrubbed}}

Honestly, if the elves were that weak no reason for Tarquin to be worried about fusing his 3 countires together and taking control of the whole continent.

Still everyone seems to be bolted into their position on V and A.

[oppyu]

This is the kind of circular, irrelevant, somewhat spiteful argument that happens when OOTS fans go for two weeks without a fix -_-.

Don't worry chaps. Everything will be ok.

[Gusion]

The one thing we can be sure of is that it is not affecting Cliffport, which suggests that the elves aren't accomplishing whatever their goal is. That's not all that audacious a claim, really.

I think it is an oversimplification based what little we know. But sure, it is certainly a possibility. An "option" - but not one that is firm enough to draw any conclusions from. We don't know how long it has gone on ("long standing" is a relative term), what it is about, or anything else. A IRL example is that the United States and Japan had a trade war. The U.S. and China are in one right now. But you don't see it as a massive topic of discussion outside academic circles. The average U.S. "person on the street" probably has no idea of their government's trade policies.

Okay, what changed? If the elves withdrew into isolation 1184 years ago, what prompted the sudden transition to constant warfare in the rest of the continent 500 years ago?

1. You are equating "withdrawing into isolation" to "sealing off their land" - they are not fundamentally the same thing. The context of the single statement is in regards to geopolitical (and race) borders. The elves didn't want humans or lizards living in their forest. It does not automatically mean they never left their lands, as evidenced by their support for Azure City. That support doesn't mean they're going to send their entire army, however. They sent two special operation teams. Maybe that was done to investigate the situation and once they arrived those teams decided no further support was needed. That they misjudged RC's power does not equate to a weakness in the entire elven country.

That said, the story arc is still open given Niu got away.

(for the record, I'm not say that's what happened - hence the maybe - but my point is that we don't know.)

2. Again, for all we know, 550 years the elves first encountered humans and lizards. The elves decided to protect their land against settlement so they spent 50 years researching the right magic and then sealed it off. Or that could be entirely wrong. We don't even know if "sealed off" means magical or not. Either way, as I mentioned before - sealing off prime real estate from all the other races speaks to power, not weakness.

[phantomreader42]

Would be interesting if it said: Not your fault.

That would have been very interesting. Not sure which would have had a more profound psychological effect on V.

[lio45]

It doesn't matter if the plan is workable, it is in the temptation. Turning the temptation from the heroic act of saving his family, of making a deep sacrifice, to V's own inadequacy, hir desire to not fail, to accept due to ego. That is what the temptation was about.

FYI... before the IFCC came into the picture, a V which was just as tired and likely even more panicked (because 1) there was no Time Stop effect then and 2) unlike later, he didn't have any way to save his children at the moment)...

...analysed, and rejected as "non-workable", three suggestions from the imp.

(Namely,
1) imp goes to Azure City fleet and warns them
2) imp goes to Aarindarius and warns him
3) imp goes to Inkyrius and warns him/her)

And V gave reasons why it wouldn't work. In spite of being just as tired and even more panicked then as he'd later be with the fiends.

So, IMO, it's pretty clear that V's state of tiredness and panickedness at the moment he was presented the fiends' alternate plan couldn't have been great enough for V to not retain his previously-demonstrated-several-times-while-tired-and-panicked ability to dismiss an obviously totally flawed plan, i.e. one for which the main goal, defeating the ABD, has no hope of success.

Guerrilla warfare is always the resort of a militarily weaker power. That the Elves' first plan is to undertake guerrilla warfare on their own soil is an indication of their profound weakness, and especially an ability to project meaningful power, not their strength.

"Always" here on Earth, yes, because we humans have roughly the same lifespans and reproduction rates.

It's flawed thinking to take true real life facts like "guerrilla warfare is always the resort of a militarily weaker power" and think they can equally apply to fantasy situation with non-humans.