My Little Pony WW 2: The Shadow Reign

[inky13112]

So whats the argument for atreyu? We still have a seer claim calling for grimmace's head, so I'll stick with that for now.

[Forum Explorer]

Alright here's how I see things:

Grue Bait claimed and targeted Grimace who is likely Rarity but may have been randomly saved. However if it was a random save then it why didn't Rarity warn us that Grimace was protected? So I think Grimace is likely Rarity who couldn't defend herself because she wasn't here yesterday.

That means Grue and Ramsus are both scum. Since Grue claimed first I think he's Ursa so killing him will hurt. So should we kill him or just ignore him til end game? Plus if he's Ursa then we should kill Ramsus so he couldn't escape via changling escape. Also since Grue is still here then he's likely not a changeling else he would have already tried to escape.

Alternatively they are both telling the truth and both are seers have just claimed, on the same target no less. This sounds like some really bad news for town so I'm hoping that will be false.

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

So whats the argument for atreyu? We still have a seer claim calling for grimmace's head, so I'll stick with that for now.

I think C'Nor wants to see what I'll come up with to defend myself. I'll try not to disappoint.

[Lady Serpentine]

I think C'Nor wants to see what I'll come up with to defend myself. I'll try not to disappoint.

Actually, it was a random point because I'm up for autolynch and I have no clue what's been going on. But that works too.

[Ramsus]

Is it me or did Murska and Forum Explorer just out themselves as wolves? Though Murska legitimately could be busy, I think he's just too good a player to decide not to test a seer claim as town when, if the Grimmace is Rarity a lynch on him would still fail today anyway.

GG, I had considered the possibility that Grue Bait is the Queen but, I'm most likely going to die soon. While I'm not saying I think the Masons and other PR's should trust him implicitly, they should certainly use me as a way to hook up tonight and he should give whoever wants to be the contact for that group his scries. Oh and if Grue Bait isn't actually Twilight, then that person should just publicly claim.

Oh and masons, I'm not going to trust just one person going "I represent the masons". That could easily be a wolf but, I doubt the wolves would risk their entire team by all of them contacting me pretending to be the masons. The rest of the town PR's, please contact me as soon as we get a lynch result (or sooner if you actually just feel I'm trustworthy, and when have I not been when claiming Fool?).

And Rarity, if for some reason you are completely nuts and baned the Grimmace again, please tell me so that we don't give the wolves another free kill again ok?

[52.5 Lemons]

I'm going with The Grimmace. I would rather not vote for a claimed seer who remains untested.

[EvilRoeSlade]

Batmare's Journal
September 14, 2012

This village is afraid of me.... I have seen its true Cutie Mark...

Ramsus is claiming to be Pinkie Pie. But I've observed that mare in action and know that the odds of her pinkie sense working are a mere 25%. Odds of Twilight Sparkle having found my nemesis, Darkwing Pony at this early junction are a mere 2%. Divide those numbers and you get .5%, but the odds of a changeling telling a lie.... are significantly higher.

The accumulated filth of all their fibs and grumpiness will foam up about their waists and all the changelings and loyalists will look up and shout "Save us!"... and I'll whisper "Sure."

[Murska]

My point is to avoid exactly what Lemons just did - voting for one of the lynch targets because you don't want to vote for the other, instead of realizing there exist several other options.

From what I can see, we have a very likely daybaner (Daybaning someone other than yourself early on without any reason to suspect that they're town and will be lynched is unlikely) being accused as a wolf by a very likely Seer/Fool (wolves wouldn't claim Seer to randomly lynch someone, and intentionally targeting the daybaner would be odd - the role isn't worth it). I'm not sure but I don't think there are disguisers around (maybe) so that would mean the most likely case being a Fool accusing the Daybaner, in which case we want neither one to be lynched.

That's my reasoning, anyway. If there's something I'm missing, do tell - I might even have the time to read it on Sunday.

[Grue Bait]

Grimmace is Darkwing Pony. Still. It hasn't changed. Rarity, a little heads-up would have been nice yesterday, by the way. Can we just lynch Grimmace so I can prove this?

[EvilRoeSlade]

Who did you scry last night Grue Bait?

[planswalker]

IF the seer claims are proven true, then that means the wolves will know who both our seers are. I really hope Ramsus isn't really pinkie pie. If so, then the wolves will know BOTH seers, and we only have 1 night baner. To my sounding, having the wolves "confirm" their seer claim with another sounds less risky than both our seers outing themselves and saving themselves the trouble of being found. With the mason leader dead, pinkie pie and twilight sparkle outed, all we'd need to do is have rarity show herself today and we'd be handing them most major roles on a silver platter. They wouldn't really even need their own seer after this. I don't want to believe that we've managed to hand the wolves both our seers, so i'm going to assume that our seers have been smart and are gathering intel and letting two wolves expose themselves.

[Ramsus]

"You are Pinkie Pie.

Your Pinkie Sense is trying to tell you something.... but you're not entirely sure what, or when it is. 25% chance of a correct scry.

Exceptions: You scry Twilight Sparkle and Queen Chrysalis as Twilight Sparkle.

You scry Darkwing Pony as himself, 100%.

Scry Luna/Nightmare Moon as Luna, but only if she hasn't already become Nightmare Moon."

So, no, I can't be scrying incorrectly. Otherwise I wouldn't have claimed.

So planswalker, because you would prefer I not be Pinkie Pie and Rarity put us in a very bad situation and I had no choice but to claim you're voting for me? Even though wolves wouldn't publicly claim this early to kill a role that is nowhere near their biggest worry? What?

ERS, the seer shouldn't announce their scries publicly. There are a lot of reasons for that. I'm not even going to bother putting together a list. It'd be too long.

Edit: And Murska, I just don't believe you honestly think the wolves would think this exchange would be worth it.

[Alarra]

if the Grimmace is Rarity a lynch on him would still fail today anyway.

So then we waste another lynch? Though I guess it's not really a waste since it would confirm either that Grimmace is Rarity or that it was a random protection (and we'd maybe get a wolf). Because really, if Grimmace is Rarity I can't imagine he'd protect someone else for today. I'm not convinced that the both of you aren't lying though, and like some of the others, am hoping that you are because yeah, having both seers outed this early kinda sucks.

While I'm not saying I think the Masons and other PR's should trust him implicitly, they should certainly use me as a way to hook up tonight and he should give whoever wants to be the contact for that group his scries. Oh and if Grue Bait isn't actually Twilight, then that person should just publicly claim.

Oh and masons, I'm not going to trust just one person going "I represent the masons". That could easily be a wolf but, I doubt the wolves would risk their entire team by all of them contacting me pretending to be the masons.

Wow...this all sounds suspicious to me on soooo many levels. Please, please masons, do not contact him until at the very least we have confirmation that Grimmace is actually Darkwing. Though even then, Grue Bait telling the truth doesn't guarantee that you are, Ramsus. It would actually seem smart to me if say, Grimmace is a wolf and Grue Bait is Twilight for one of the Changelings to claim Pinkie Pie to try to get into a network. And wanting all the masons to contact you? That just sounds flat out crazy to me especially before any confirmation of your role. That level of trust is just not freely given in these games, or it shouldn't be.

And really even if Grimmace is Darkwing, this could still be a crazy plot to flush out masons/the real twilight/other power roles. If so, bravo. I love it when people pull bold stunts like this and turn the game on its head.

*claps happily* Oh I do so love it when games get complicated and crazy, especially early. I've missed ww....remind me to sign up for more of these.

^edit...that post wasn't there when I wrote this. Not sure it changes anything, though it does make me understand the claiming a bit better. Though I'm still not sure it's the smartest move. Am I to understand that you confirmed Grue's scry by scrying Grimmace last night as well? Or at least that's what you're implying?

[Ramsus]

Yes, I scried the Grimmace last night because I knew it would end up as just a contest between what Grue Bait says and the Grimmace says otherwise and Pinkie Pie outing herself was better than Rarity doing so. And at the time I wasn't sure who to believe. Heck, I was actually leaning more towards Grue Bait being the wolf. I'm actually pretty annoyed at Rarity doing something so ridiculously detrimental and not even warning us off.

And I wasn't saying people should contact me before we get a lynch result. Just that they do so asap before the wolves kill me tonight.

Also...uh....aren't you overlooking something obvious here Alarra? If I'm fake claiming, any real Pinkie Pie would counter claim me. Like, that is the hands down best thing to do as far as I've seen in every game. If someone claims your role, this means they probably have a plan to get rid of you almost immediately so generally the best thing you can do is counter claim them. On the other hand it's usually an almost worthless move on the wolve's side to fake counter claim.

[Alarra]

And I wasn't saying people should contact me before we get a lynch result. Just that they do so asap before the wolves kill me tonight.

Isn't that exactly what you're saying right here? vvv

The rest of the town PR's, please contact me as soon as we get a lynch result (or sooner if you actually just feel I'm trustworthy, and when have I not been when claiming Fool?).

Also...uh....aren't you overlooking something obvious here Alarra? If I'm fake claiming, any real Pinkie Pie would counter claim me. Like, that is the hands down best thing to do as far as I've seen in every game. If someone claims your role, this means they probably have a plan to get rid of you almost immediately so generally the best thing you can do is counter claim them. On the other hand it's usually an almost worthless move on the wolve's side to fake counter claim.

You'd be surprised. I've seen some crazy things work really well, and when the villagers get confused it usually works out in the wolves favor. I'm not saying that's what's going on here, just I'm not going to necessarily rule it out.

[Ramsus]

I counter your quote by bolding the part you didn't! Ha HAH!

...

Seriously. What? I was mostly joking anyway and even if not it was an aside to telling people to wait till after the lynch, which in itself pointed out that it wasn't the suggested normal course of action.

I wasn't saying wolves don't do crazy things. However nobody has counter claimed me yet and at least half the players have posted since I made my claim haven't they? So, there's currently no good reason to believe I'm lying.

Edit: I re-read planswalker's post and, it's actually worse than I thought. Not wanting to believe a situation is as bad as it is is no excuse to make it worse because you refuse to accept the reality of your situation.

And why the heck do I deserve your vote? Grue Bait is the one who just jumped out day 2 himself, without a proxy, with a vague claim. Then Rarity screwed us by randomly baning someone not herself. And I'm already going to be the one paying the price for their actions without you going nuts and lynching me. That's just adding insult to injury.

[planswalker]

I counter your quote by bolding the part you didn't! Ha HAH!

...

Seriously. What? I was mostly joking anyway and even if not it was an aside to telling people to wait till after the lynch, which in itself pointed out that it wasn't the suggested normal course of action.

I wasn't saying wolves don't do crazy things. However nobody has counter claimed me yet and at least half the players have posted since I made my claim haven't they? So, there's currently no good reason to believe I'm lying.

... except that having both seers reveal themselves to the wolves is so very bad for the long term that it makes no sense for you to do so, if you really were.

hell, while we're just handing out seer claims, I'll throw my hat in the ring as Pinkie Pie, and scrying Grue last night showed he was a tangerine!

[Castaras]

I'm Pinkie Pie, and so's my wife!

[Ramsus]

Planswalker, you aren't helping.

Edit: Castaras, that goes double for you! (Because you effectively claimed it twice.)

Yes, both seers out there is bad. You know what's worse? Me sitting there and letting you guys lynch the non-fool seer because Rarity baned a wolf and without my claim people would believe they were doing the right thing. What the hell man. You're basically blaming me for other people screwing up and bothering to try and give town a chance at winning.

Edit 2: Not that I'm 100% sure Grue Bait isn't the Queen but, I'm not going to support lynching someone I think has a less than 50% chance of being a wolf when we can lynch someone I'm 100% sure is.

Also, if Grue Bait isn't really Twilight, whoever you are, counter claim him. You're not worth anything to town if nobody believes you until it's too late.

[EvilRoeSlade]

I'm convinced. The worst thing that could happen if we lynch The Grimmace again is nothing because Rarity protected him again.

[planswalker]

All of that assuming you're not a wolf pulling a stunt to get the real pinkie pie to reveal herself.

Or maybe just a villager that thinks they can get away with this bluff so that pinkie pie won't speak up because you're convinced grue is right.

If we assume you are telling the truth and there is no chance you are lying, your version makes sense. But if we allow that you might be lying, I see it making more sense for you to be a liar who's either muddying the waters through good intention or a wolf doing so deliberately.

[Ramsus]

All of that assuming you're not a wolf pulling a stunt to get the real pinkie pie to reveal herself.

Because that would sooooooooo be worth it. *rolls eyes*

Edit: For Twilight, sure. Rarity, meh. Rainbowdash...already dead and also meh. Applejack, certainly! Pinkie Pie, heck no.

Or maybe just a villager that thinks they can get away with this bluff so that pinkie pie won't speak up because you're convinced grue is right.

That would be so anti-town I can't even imagine anyone who isn't a complete noob doing it. I don't know if you're insulting yourself or me but, someone's intelligence certainly was insulted there.

If we assume you are telling the truth and there is no chance you are lying, your version makes sense. But if we allow that you might be lying, I see it making more sense for you to be a liar who's either muddying the waters through good intention or a wolf doing so deliberately.

There is no reason to assume I'm lying at this point. You can't just assume and act as if everyone is lying all the time. The wolves win every time if you do that.

I think you've more or less cemented in my mind that you're a wolf or neutral turned to the wolf side. The horrible horrible logic added with trying to lynch a PR who is basically only good for the one thing they are currently doing instead of a wolf two people are claiming to have scried with nobody counter-claiming either of them is more than enough for me. You're now at the top of my suspect list (followed by Murska but, Murska at least has the excuse that he tends to start there for just about everyone).

[Alarra]

You're both getting awfully worked up about all of this. I agree though, lynching Grimmace will at best get us a wolf and at worst get us Rarity and a lot of info. Or rather, a missed killed cause he probably protected himself and we'd still get lots of info.

[usourselves&we]

don't have time to read every thing or RP at this time and need to vote.

Looks like Ramsus is chatting a bunch and saying a lot, it would be foolish to do that as a wolf with this number of people in the game, and we think Ramsus is inclined not to act like that so. . .

the grimmace

[planswalker]

call me a noob in my first wolf game if you wish, but I'd like it if you didn't call me stupid just because I don't seem to have a well-defined grasp of what assumptions are and are not safe to make according to your word.

To me, it looks like the wolves wouldn't really get a shot at killing off Grue (assuming he is TS), seeing as the night baner could protect him, but if both seer roles are revealed, they can't both be covered. I'm not seeing why revealing yourself to be pinkie pie (if you are) would be more helpful than not.

I'm highly suspicious about what to me looks like illogical behavior.

also, it doesn't particularly suprise me that someone who's disagreeing with you gets declared a wolf. you did claim that either I am trying to insult your intelligence or else have none of my own. Since I was not trying to insult anyone's intelligence, it would seem to me that you were attempting to implicate the other way.

[Forum Explorer]

Okay here's my theory on why I think you are a wolf Ramsus;


If you are a wolf then Twilight and Pinkie are both still hidden and relatively safe. Otherwise we will likely lose both of our Seers soon which will suck.

You would pull this off because along with Grue one of you is Ursa Major which will cause another 2 town ponies to die alongside Rarity (which was either a scan or just a random guess.) If we attack the Ursa first the other can use their changling powers to infect another townie at no cost. Net: we lose 3-4 townies for 1-2 wolves. Not to mention we'd lose more time while they racked up night kills if Rarity is protecting herself again.

Now if you are Pinkie then I guess you'd be the more expendable of our seers. So I'd rather sacrifice you to confirm then Grue Bait. Which is why I voted for you over him. Plus I think Grue is the Ursa if you are a wolf.

Also I'm curious on why you say seers shouldn't reveal their scans? I mean sure don't give all the details but shouldn't you say if they were good, neutral, or evil?


Overall I'm more voting for you in the hopes that you are a wolf because if you are telling the truth I think we are ******

[Grue Bait]

All right you two, back to your corners, before this get out of hand. Nobody's insulting anybody, and nobody is intentionally making the other mad. Ramsus, this is planswalker's first game; he's playing the game with no prior experience and learning as he goes. We have few enough WW players these days to afford pissing any off and making them not want to play. Seriously. Let it go, both of you.

[Ramsus]

Forum Explorer, *sigh*.

Ok, first off, doing things because "if that's true than we're in seriously trouble, therefore I'm going to act like it isn't" is never a good course of action. You only make things worse.

How would killing me confirm Grue Bait either way? I'm not vouching for him based on a scry because Pinkie Pie scries the two roles he could be exactly the same. I'm vouching against the Grimmace. Who won't die today if he is Rarity.

I didn't know this was Planswalker's first game.

Let me explain why a non-power role claiming to be one on they aren't is bad for town. It confuses things. If vanilla pony claims to be Pinky and then Pinky counterclaims then vanilla pony just outed Pinky to the wolves for no gain at all to town. Vanilla Pony does not know if anyone is Darkwing pony because they are a vanilla pony. So that throws confusion on whether or not a wolf is a wolf and a town PR is town. This confusion only helps the wolves because no matter what, they aren't confused about who is and isn't a wolf. So, it's a very very bad move that only helps wolves. I said it was insulting because I have enough experience to never have any possibility of confusing that kind of action with something helpful to do and was unaware you did not have that knowledge. (And to be a bit brutally honest I thought about it long enough the first time the idea popped into my head that I realized what a bad idea it was.)

Also, since you don't seem to understand why I had to claim, think about what would have happened if I hadn't. Would town believe Grue Bait about the Grimmace being Darkwing pony? What happens to town when they lynch their seer to save a wolf? Even on the off chance (I personally think it's unlikely) that Grue Bait is the Queen, then at least some people would not believe me later when I said the Grimmace was Darkwing pony. Both because they think he is Rarity but, also because why would I have not said something earlier if when it was between lynching him and the seer? Most likely I would then end up lynched too.

As for why it's bad to announce scries publicly, here is a small sample:

It lets the wolves know who town power roles are.
It lets wolves know which of them have been scried and are/aren't worth trying to save/use as appropriate.
Every time the seer announced someone was a vanilla town pony that would be one less person they had to scry to find a town power role.

[Tom the Mime]

The Grimmace. If it turns out he's Rarity, we've found two wolves. If Grue and Ramsus are telling the truth, we take out Darkwing Pony. That's enough to lynch Grimmace alone.

Planswalker, a fake wolf claim of Pinky Pie finding Darkwing Pony would be the nearly the worst possible fake claim. Easily tested and even if you get Darkwing Pony right, the actual Pinky Pie comes out (if they didn't before for some reason) and you lynch both (or until you find the wolf) because after Darkwing Pony is found, any wolf is worth far more Pinky Pie.

Forum explorer - this early on, unless it impacts something significantly, seers shouldn't reveal any of their good scries. Wolves tend to go for confirmed villagers and in this game, confirmed villagers may end up being targeted by the changelings after being confirmed. If they scry someone evil and they're out in the open already, they should (and do) say it. On one of the other points, whenever we lynch Ursa, we will lose 3 villagers for 1 wolf, so the point of 1-2 wolves for 3-4 town isn't exactly bad if those wolves include Ursa.

[planswalker]

thank you for explaining things. I now see what you're talking about, and I guess it doesn't really make sense for you to not be pinkie pie. I see now I wasn't thinking things through and letting the paranoia of the game get to me.

I apologize for being petulant.

The Grimmace is the safe bet then, I guess. Still, it sucks for us that so many power roles are revealed so early. I don't like our chances.

edit: and I promise that I'll try tomorrow to let experienced people make reasonable argument before I go mouthing off my noobishness and cause unnecessary chaos. I'm just trying to get a feel for how things work here.

__________________________________________________ ______

The yellow pants eyed The Grimmace, Ramsus, Grue Bait, and Atreiu suspiciously. Well, pants don't have eyes, but you get the idea. He doesn't trust any of them. The brown earth pony wearing them doesn't seem to mind. In fact, he's beginning to set up a stand of some sort just outside his home.