Careless Village WW

[Gray Mage]

I this is one of the only posts I have been able to find with info and this is where the 50% accuracy comes from. If I have read it wrong, then I would like someone to please explain how I did so. Honestly, if there is anyone who has a better argument, then I will run with it. I guess you could call it more of a gut feeling than anything else.

It's worse then. There's an 50% chance of it being right (Good), but on the wrong chance, she'd be either Neutral or Evil, which divides it further. So, the odds of her being Evil (assuming and even chance of her being evil or neutral, which is not given) is 25% and of her being non-Evil (and thus not a good lynch target) is 75%. Even if it's not an even the same chance of her being neutral/evil, the odds of her being non-Evil is still greater then she being evil. Not a good target, IMO.

@Eternis: Is there even a executioner still in play? All the original roles are dead.

[Kalrany]

Well, if the Nighthunter had died in the narration, I would care a bit more. But it was clearly some Penguinator fellow who died, so the Nighthunter is still around.

With luck then Count Dingdong will not off Daring in the narration.

His grizzled brow furrowed as he looked quickly inside the pouch, then stuffed it away into his satchel. He nodded in thanks. Perhaps it would come in handy. (I can't imagine that he would have knowledge of ancient languages.)

I have heard of wierder things. Nothing like an unusual trinket with backstory...

The man looked away for a moment, staring into the distance. "Nah' in so many words, nay; but I gets a feelin'." He took a long draw from the cigar, then removed it from his lips. "'Twas an ol' contac' o' mine. Use' t' tell me when 'ere were killin's about. 'E's the one 'oo told me t'come 'ere. But 'e's gone, now, an' I hain't e'en seen him 'roun', yet." He shook his head. "Bu' he ain' the only one, either. Oh, no. I feel another was slain. Not by the same folk, mind you."

The women tilted her head, her brow furrowing in concern. She stood up straighter, and leaned forward. “Do you mean there is a second group going around offing people?”

Fan-flippin’-tastic, she thought with a mental groan.

“Sorry to hear about your contact. Can you tell me more about the second set of idiots?”

[Lex-Kat]

Eternis Nothing to see here.

[Penguinator]

The women tilted her head, her brow furrowing in concern. She stood up straighter, and leaned forward. “Do you mean there is a second group going around offing people?”

Fan-flippin’-tastic, she thought with a mental groan.

“Sorry to hear about your contact. Can you tell me more about the second set of idiots?”

"Jus' th' one. I was s'pos't t'find 'im b'fore..." He went silent.

[Kalrany]

"Jus' th' one. I was s'pos't t'find 'im b'fore..." He went silent.

“Before…” she prompted when he didn’t seem inclined to continue. It didn’t help, as Nighthunter seemed to be focused on another thought. “Well, how do we find out? Is there a place where announcements are made? Or town bulletins displayed?”

“How sure are you that there is only one other?”

[Penguinator]

“Before…” she prompted when he didn’t seem inclined to continue. It didn’t help, as Nighthunter seemed to be focused on another thought. “Well, how do we find out? Is there a place where announcements are made? Or town bulletins displayed?”

“How sure are you that there is only one other?”

"Lass, I know ver' little abou' this town. I tried talkin' to 'em once, an' it din't go o'er well." He shook his head. "Before the contact was hit." He paused, taking another draw from his cigar. "'E's a solo artis', that'n. A' leas', he use't'a be. Migh'a changed since then. Been a long time."

[Kalrany]

"Lass, I know ver' little abou' this town. I tried talkin' to 'em once, an' it din't go o'er well." He shook his head. "Before the contact was hit." He paused, taking another draw from his cigar. "'E's a solo artis', that'n. A' leas', he use't'a be. Migh'a changed since then. Been a long time."

“Wonderful,” she mumbled. More clearly, she continued. “You know more than I do about this place. My sisters, ah, communications, held only so much information. But…”

“OK. So there are two groups, with one containing a single individual…” She paused to think.

Geh! What did Kal get roped into! Too many twists and unknowns! “Do you think he is the one who got to your contact? Is he likely to kill again, and is there any reason or rational for his targets? Or is he as random as the rest of this town’s been?” She let out a frustrated huff. “I feel like I am groping in the dark with a blindfold and handcuffed!”

At his look, she schooled her features again. “Sorry, but… Look, it falls to me to complete my sister’s task, but I don’t have her talent. I’m just…” she trailed off, scowling slightly at herself. “I don’t even know how many players there are in this. Face’s brother gave me a run down, but you have been here longer than both of us combined.”

[Count Dingdong]

Less than 24 hours left though may be late w/ narration

Current votes:
Nightpenguin - 3
Eternis - 2
Devmaar - 1
No Lynch - 1 (Executioner)

need 4 min to lynch, if exec. alive, send in decision just in case
Devmaar, Nightpenguin, gunnar11, Caprice, Chromasia, bladescape have to vote.
Chromasia already missed 1 day

Mayor votes:
bladescape - 1

Mayor send in title to learn about.

[Caprice]

Well, I think I'll be going with Nightpenguin, because I don't think we should write off that 25% chance as simply nothing, Gray Mage ^^"

I think there's been a plausible argument submitted against her (I'm sorry if I mess up someone's gender!) and at this point, is something more to go on than simple gut feeling against Eternis - although I'm curious. Is it really just plain 'gut feeling' or is there something that's triggering an alarm of some sort? If so, could you possibly elaborate?

[Tom the Mime]

It also says his role is not revealed.

I know it was only a moniker, not the role, but most of the monikers which have been matched with the known roles from lynches seem to be linked, or at least plausibly linked. Maybe I'm taking "knight in shining armour" too literally but I can't see how you'd match it and it doesn't sit quite right for me.

That said, Gray Mage's logic makes sense with Nightpenguin being less likely to be evil than others given the three possible alignments (even if people have run with the 25%/75% which he states isn't really the case). So I'll go for the other wagon available given the time left - Eternis. Besides, repeatedly voting for the executioner to choose isn't particularly helpful, especially when we don't know if there is an executioner or if they're town-sided.

[Chromasia]

Eternis. I don't want to lynch anyone with a probable 75% of being helpful. Sorry? >.>

[bladescape]

Excecutioner take thy axe. Sorry for being a helpful proven neutral.

You can always trust Bladescape to be an impartial Mayor. In fact, I'll randomly role the dice to see which role I investigate. XD

[TBFProgrammer]

It's worse then. There's an 50% chance of it being right (Good), but on the wrong chance, she'd be either Neutral or Evil, which divides it further. So, the odds of her being Evil (assuming and even chance of her being evil or neutral, which is not given) is 25% and of her being non-Evil (and thus not a good lynch target) is 75%. Even if it's not an even the same chance of her being neutral/evil, the odds of her being non-Evil is still greater then she being evil. Not a good target, IMO.

@Eternis: Is there even a executioner still in play? All the original roles are dead.

This is flawed reasoning, since the probability of actually being a neutral is rather low in most games. This leaves us with a ~60% chance of her being either neutral or good from just the scry. Now, this may seem like a boon, but you also have to remember that if we completely ignore the scry, everyone has a ~75% to ~80% of not being a wolf, simply from game balance.

In other words, the odds of her being non-evil hasn't actually increased.

[gunnar11]

Executioners pick
is what I choose

[Gray Mage]

This is flawed reasoning, since the probability of actually being a neutral is rather low in most games.

Considering that all of the original wolves are dead already and that the total number of neutral roles is unknown, the probability is uncertain. My point was that we shouldn't forget about it (I even mentioned that it wouldn't be 25%).

This leaves us with a ~60% chance of her being either neutral or good from just the scry. Now, this may seem like a boon, but you also have to remember that if we completely ignore the scry, everyone has a ~75% to ~80% of not being a wolf, simply from game balance.

In other words, the odds of her being non-evil hasn't actually increased.

First off, that 75~80% is only valid at the start of play. Considering that there has been plenty of townies and wolves dead the ratio has surely changed, though it's certain that it's greater then 50%.

On the second point, are you sure you're correct?

Because, as I see it, you can't treat them as separate things, but must calculate the resulting chance.

I mean the odds of being not-wolf would be:
(Math ahead)

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P(not-wolf)=1-P(wolf)
P(not-wolf)=1-[P(A)&P(B)]
being:
P(A)= probability of being a wolf due to ratio
and
P(B)= probability of being a wolf due to scry

So, the odds of not being a wolf would increase, right?

[TBFProgrammer]

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P(not-wolf)=1-P(wolf)
P(not-wolf)=1-[P(A)&P(B)]
being:
P(A)= probability of being a wolf due to ratio
and
P(B)= probability of being a wolf due to scry

So, the odds of not being a wolf would increase, right?

The scry is a measure, the ratio is a generator. The odds they are scried as a villager is the odds they are a villager times the odds they are scried correctly, plus the odds they are a wolf times the odds they are scried incorrectly.

50*80 = 40 <-- odds of correctly scried as a villager
50*20 = 10 <-- odds of being incorrectly scried as a villager

40+10=50

10/50=20%

add neutrality:

50*75 = 37.5
25*5 = 1.75
25*20 = 5

5/43.25 = 11%


Slight improvement, if we consider that wrong scry to split 50/50

However, we can't assume that that is the system that is in use. In fact, it is one extrema of the likely systems. The other extrema puts us back at 20%

So, is a 20%-11%+20%/2=4.5% gain really worth ignoring someone who has been acting suspicious?

[Gray Mage]

The scry is a measure, the ratio is a generator. The odds they are scried as a villager is the odds they are a villager times the odds they are scried correctly, plus the odds they are a wolf times the odds they are scried incorrectly.

50*80 = 40 <-- odds of correctly scried as a villager
50*20 = 10 <-- odds of being incorrectly scried as a villager

40+10=50

10/50=20%

add neutrality:

50*75 = 37.5
25*5 = 1.75
25*20 = 5

5/43.25 = 11%


Slight improvement, if we consider that wrong scry to split 50/50

However, we can't assume that that is the system that is in use. In fact, it is one extrema of the likely systems. The other extrema puts us back at 20%

So, is a 20%-11%+20%/2=4.5% gain really worth ignoring someone who has been acting suspicious?

Not sure how you're calculating gain. Also, from where did you get 4.5%? That equation equals 19% (or 9.5% is you meant [0.2-0.11+0.2]/2).

The 11%, if I'm not mistaken is the chance of being a wolf, right? So, the chance of not being a wolf would be 89%, right (not sure why you didn't post that). Sure, it's an increase of 9 points (or 11.25% of the original percentage ), but, by your own math, it's close to 90% that she's not a wolf.

From the begining I was just saying that the scry result shouldn't be used to lynch her (I initially responded to Kal's post), if you have other reasons feel free to point at her. And I honestly haven't seem much talk of these suspicious actions besides asking for confirmation from me implying being the baner.

@Gunnar: I don't think we're sure to have an executioner around right now.

[Kalrany]

...gain really worth ignoring someone who has been acting suspicious.

The thing is, we don't know that is the breakdown.

Part of the difficulty we have in determining the actual probability stems from the fact that we don’t know how many wolf/villager/neutral newcomer slots there are in the game. All the newcomer slots were predetermined for the number, but nowhere in the OP is there a breakdown for what those are. Consequently, the actual percentage to know if Nightpenguin is a wolf is not determinable, as there is an X in 35 chance that position #32 is a villager, while a Y in 35 it is a wolf, and a Z in 35 it is a neutral.

Independent of the chance to be a wolf/villager/neutral is the 50% scry.

So, the chance to be a villager is X/35, a wolf Y/35, and a neutral Z/35 with X + Y + Z= 35...

Math Breakdown:

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When the result of a 50% scry (or P(S)=0.5) is villager, the possibly are P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = ?
P(A) = True Scry as Villager = P(S) x P(Y) = 0.5 x Y/35
P(B) = False Scry as Wolf = P(S) x P(X) = 0.5 x X/35
P(C)= False Scry as Neutral = P(S) x P(Z) = 0.5 x Z/35

This works as the result for wolf are P(D) + P(E) + P(C) = ?
P(D) = True Scry as Wolf = P(S) x P(X) = 0.5 x X/35
P(E) = False Scry as Villager = P(S) x P(Y) = 0.5 x Y/35
P(C)= False Scry as Neutral = P(S) x P(Z) = 0.5 x Z/35

and neutral are P(F) +P(E) +P(B) = ?
P(F) = True Scry as Neutral = P(S) x P(Z) = 0.5 x Z/35
P(E) = False Scry as Villager = P(S) x P(Y) = 0.5 x Y/35
P(B)= False Scry as Wolf = P(S) x P(X) = 0.5 x X/35

As it is a given that P(true scry) + P(false scry) = 1
= [P(A)+ P(D) + P(F) ] + [P(B) +P(C) + P(E)]
= [(0.5 x Y/35) + (0.5 x X/35) + (0.5 x Z/35)] + [(0.5 x X/35) + (0.5 x Z/35) + (0.5 x Y/35)]
= 35[0.5 (Y + X + X)] + 35[0.5 (X + Z + Y)]
= 35 x [0.5 x 2 (X + Y + Z)]
or 35 = X + Y + Z

However, we cannot know what is the value of P(A) [the likelihood of a true scry reporting as a villager] nor can we know P(B) or P(C) [the likelihood of a false scry reporting as a villager] because we don’t know the number of each of the roles.

In summary, we cannot calculate the probability of the scry of villager was true or false.

So, to answer "[is the] gain really worth ignoring someone who has been acting suspicious" I would say, we don't know how much of a gain it is, and I for one don't know what it is about Eternis that is suspicious either.

If this sounds like a long-winded way of saying "gut feeling" eh, I would say that you could easily be right. We don't have enough information in any direction including this one.

[Nightpenguin]

Okay, the math... I'm not liking it. I recommend that everyone do a little research into Bayes' theorem.

Math:

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Let W signify that a given player is a wolf. Then P(W) is the prior odds (i.e. without the scry) of W. Let S be the event that the player is scried as town. Now what we are looking for is P(W|S).

P(S) = P(S|W)P(W) + P(S|~W)P(~W) = P(S|W)P(W) + P(S|~W)(1 - P(W))
P(S|W) = 1/4 (*)
P(S|~W) = P(T|~W)/2 + (1 - P(T|~W))/4

P(S) = P(W)/4 + (1 - P(W))(P(T|~W)/2 + (1 - P(T|~W))/4)


Therefore, via Bayes' theorem:
P(W|S) = P(S|W)P(W)/P(S)

Thus:
P(W|S) = (1/4)(P(W))/(P(W)/4 + (1 - P(W))(P(T|~W)/2 + (1 - P(T|~W))/4))

That is what we are looking for. The only things remaining to do are to plug in the probability P(W) that the player is a wolf (without any other information), and the probability P(T|~W) that, if a player is not a wolf, that they are town. Assume for the moment that P(W) = 1/3 and P(T|~W) = 1/2.

P(W|S) = (1/4)((1/3))/((1/3)/4 + (1 - (1/3))((1/2)/2 + (1 - (1/2))/4))
= 1/4


That's right, with those numbers, the probability (knowing the scry) that I am a wolf is 1/4. Of course, I don't know the exact constants P(W) and P(T|~W), but those numbers probably aren't too far off the mark.

* This assumes that if the player is scried incorrectly, there is a 50/50 chance of either of the two remaining alignments being reported

TL;DR: I'm probably not a wolf.

[Penguinator]

“Wonderful,” she mumbled. More clearly, she continued. “You know more than I do about this place. My sisters, ah, communications, held only so much information. But…”

“OK. So there are two groups, with one containing a single individual…” She paused to think.

Geh! What did Kal get roped into! Too many twists and unknowns! “Do you think he is the one who got to your contact? Is he likely to kill again, and is there any reason or rational for his targets? Or is he as random as the rest of this town’s been?” She let out a frustrated huff. “I feel like I am groping in the dark with a blindfold and handcuffed!”

At his look, she schooled her features again. “Sorry, but… Look, it falls to me to complete my sister’s task, but I don’t have her talent. I’m just…” she trailed off, scowling slightly at herself. “I don’t even know how many players there are in this. Face’s brother gave me a run down, but you have been here longer than both of us combined.”

He shook his head. "Lass, I've achieved nothin' here. It may be time for me t'move on. Aft'r'all, my contact's gone, slain by m'target. As for the target? I'd guess tha's it for 'im. Fer the rest? They may be at it fer a while. I don' know 'ow many. I don' know 'ow long. But... I don' know if'n I can help you any more."

[Kalrany]

He shook his head. "Lass, I've achieved nothin' here. It may be time for me t'move on. Aft'r'all, my contact's gone, slain by m'target. As for the target? I'd guess tha's it for 'im. Fer the rest? They may be at it fer a while. I don' know 'ow many. I don' know 'ow long. But... I don' know if'n I can help you any more."

She looked at Nighthunter, then nodded slowly. “I… understand,” she said at last. “I fear there are few trustworthy people in this town, so if you stick around I would hope that we could help each other, but I can also understand wanting to leave.”

She stood tall, and held out her hand. “My sister’s talent was in understanding events and people, and Kal considered you an ally. That consideration will be extended through the family so I will say this --either choice, know I will lend you my aid should you need it. Ask for Daring, or any of us Jasterfelds...”

[planswalker]

Eternis gets my vote.

[Count Dingdong]

Day 12

People talking back and forth, can't make decisions. One said scry's 50/50, who can tell what? Other goes, this is gut feeling, but think it's good enough. Then others say, let's leave it to another. But Mob still unsure whether Executioner's axe still in play. So names go up, back and forth, and not much decided. Day continues with confusion.

Meanwhile, slinking into town, man holds abacus. Pushing rows back and forth, Mathematician mutters numbers. "fourteen, seventy-three, twelve, ninety-four. Carry three, multiply by six, factor out eleven, square root, natural log. This means that, he's confirmed evil, him not." Continues mumblings as disperses into crowds. Why he came so late to help or hurt, can't tell, but maybe now more can be told.

Mayor done with investigations for today, maybe to do some tonight. Now sits watching over town as they check who to lynch.

"We should lynch that guy." "No, that other guy's better." "The real suspicious person is over here." "I'd agree with you and lynch him, but... he seems to have disappeared." "That's enough, it's getting late. We can continue this tomorrow." And so town goes off without killing anyone, off to bed with hopefully no kills.

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No one was lynched today. Why is not revealed.
C'nor and Matthias2207 assume their roles.
A second Clueless Newcomer enters town.
TigerFang can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Tonight!
Zar Peter and Penguinator can choose spots as Clueless Newcomers Night 13

For lasting so long, Caprice gains win

Publicly revealed wins:

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Player Name	Wins
Zar Peter	3
TigerFang	2
Devmaar	2
bladescape	2
usourselves&we	1
Gray Mage	1
Ramsus	1
Grue Bait	1
planswalker	1
Matthias2207	1
Caprice	1

Player List:

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Living Roles:

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##	Player Name
16	Eternis
18	planswalker
19	Gray Mage
21	C'nor
22	Kalrany
26	Tom the Mime
28	TBFProgrammer
31	Devmaar
32	Nightpenguin
33	Lex-Kat
36	gunnar11
39	Caprice
43	Chromasia
49	Matthias2207
50	bladescape
--	Clueless Newcomers
20	Grue Bait
45	usourselves&we

Night 12 begins
...and will end in 24 hours

Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!

Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.

Sorry for short narration but wasn't much to say.

Missed 1 Day
Devmaar
Nightpenguin

[Count Dingdong]

Role PMs sent. C'nor clear inbox... given link in QT for him in meantime.

Think everything's correct. Lots going on though. Someone tell me if think something's wrong.

[TigerFang]

I choose spot 25!

[Nightpenguin]

Wait... did I not vote?? That would have been embarrassing if I were lynched and failed to vote that day... I need more sleep.

[Count Dingdong]

I choose spot 25!

Added.

more than 12 hours left (will post narration in morning) but missing night actions. Send them in.

[Count Dingdong]

Night 12

Bell tower again, Monk ascends. Supplies still laid out, only slightly disturbed. None come so high up in town. "It's time for silence, end these fights. End talking, sleep tonight." Bell is pulled, light spreads lazily over town. We go to see who's where, doing what.

Successor and Subordinate, once more in meeting. Curse light and try to protect but fall fast asleep anyway. Spy remains home, Silent as well. Sniper falls asleep in cranny on roof.

Network meets in happiness, not caring for success of who's who. They've stopped killings for few nights now, maybe that would help them out.

Society not caring, sleeps peacefully in circle. Maybe Founder dead, but Members keep it going. And still they grow.

Mayor sits in office, sound asleep. But on desk are papers he's found on newcomer, Mathematician: "The Mathematician... he's strange, rather insane at times but not bad from what I can tell. Tends to ramble off about stats, percentages, chances. Probabilites and craziness. Can't understand him but can't say much more."

Those searching pause and desist. Youth and Elder leave Other for standstill. Twins rest where they stand. Lurker and Witch too tired from chase for more. Escaped rests peacefully with no one chasing anymore. Then there's others. Businessman asleep as phone rings. Vacationer finally has house to his own. Legislator done with worrying for now. Magician practices disappearing act. Detective pauses in his search. Mathematician drops abacus, mutters, and starts refiguring again.

Monk satisfied yet again, packs up. "Until I'm needed again, unless that day never comes." and proceeds to own house to sleep.

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It was a peaceful night. No one was killed.
usourselves&we assume their roles.
A second Clueless Newcomer enters town.
Zar Peter and Penguinator can choose spots as Clueless Newcomers Night 13

Publicly revealed wins:

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Player Name	Wins
Zar Peter	3
TigerFang	2
Devmaar	2
bladescape	2
usourselves&we	1
Gray Mage	1
Ramsus	1
Grue Bait	1
planswalker	1
Matthias2207	1
Caprice	1

Player List:

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Living Roles:

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##	Player Name
16	Eternis
18	planswalker
19	Gray Mage
21	C'nor
22	Kalrany
26	Tom the Mime
28	TBFProgrammer
31	Devmaar
32	Nightpenguin
33	Lex-Kat
36	gunnar11
39	Caprice
43	Chromasia
45	usourselves&we
49	Matthias2207
50	bladescape
--	Clueless Newcomers
20	Grue Bait
25	TigerFang

Day 13 begins
...and will end in 48 hours

Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!

Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.

16 players -> 4 min to lynch

Get to killing, guys...

Missed 1 Day
Devmaar
Nightpenguin

[planswalker]

Can anyone explain why Eternis was not lynched?

CD's vote tallies 24 hours before day ended.

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Current votes:
Nightpenguin - 3
Eternis - 2
Devmaar - 1
No Lynch - 1 (Executioner)

Devmaar, Nightpenguin, gunnar11, Caprice, Chromasia, bladescape have to vote.

We then had:
Caprice vote for Nightpenguin
Tom the Mime change vote from Devmaar to Eternis
Chromasia voted Eternis
Bladescape voted Exectutioner's Pick
Gunnar voted Exectutioner's Pick
I voted Eternis

this ended with:

Nightpenguin - 4
Eternis - 5
No Lynch - 3 (Executioner)

I understand that CD is not going to reveal why no one died, but I'd like to hear Devmaar's explanation for why he chose to protect eternis (assuming he did) or another possible reason why Eternis didn't get killed off.

[Count Dingdong]

Get to voting. 12 hours past and no votes yet. Not extending round, so vote or face potential AL in few rounds.

@planswalker, forgot to cross out vote. Numbers are off.