Dethy Tournament--Heat Three in progress!--Still Recruiting!

[Disc Lorde]

Cool. Role received and ready.

[Zjoot]

Excellent, then we'll begin!

Heat 1 Day 1 will begin now and end in approximately 72 hours, or when 3 players are all voting for one other player.
Reminder that if you put the third vote onto somebody, you should point out the fact that that person is now dead. If you don't wish to administer a killing blow, please specify that your vote is a deadline vote by putting it in orange instead of the normal red.

Alright, happy hunting!

[Disc Lorde]

Alright, I think that we should wait until we're all online and reveal our scoops at once. That way the Mafioso won't have information to make up a good misleading lie.

[Duck999]

Alright, I think that we should wait until we're all online and reveal our scoops at once. That way the Mafioso won't have information to make up a good misleading lie.

That would work, except for one thing. They could make up a misleading lie with ease, even without other people saying their scoops. And, if they are wrong, they could just claim Insane/Paranoid/Naive cop. We can never tell who is lying. Everyone saying their scoop won't help, because we don't know who is wrong, and who is lying.
Edit: Also, if it doesn't bring out the Mafia. The Mafia will easily figure out who the Sane cop is, and kill them night 1. Then we have no leads anywhere.

[Disc Lorde]

RP:

Police chief Ed Rolcsid munched the Bear Claw that formed the last part of his breakfast. It tasted like cliché. He washed it down with coffee, then stared at the stack of paperwork on his desk and sighed. Sure, the promotion had its perks, but also its drawbacks. It had been weeks since he had seen any action. He sat around all day most days doing paperwork. Also, he was beginning to put on some pounds. Before starting into the pile, he checked his e-mail as always. Today, however, there was an unusual message from the Mafia Response Agency (MRA). He read it under his breath.

"We have received word of a Mafioso mole inside your organization. Recommend you resolve by any means necessary." Ed smiled a bit in spite of himself. He pulled out his old Smith and Wesson Model 36, the appropriately named "Chief's Special". He checked that it was operational. It was. "Finally some action."

- - - Updated - - -

That would work, except for one thing. They could make up a misleading lie with ease, even without other people saying their scoops. And, if they are wrong, they could just claim Insane/Paranoid/Naive cop. We can never tell who is lying. Everyone saying their scoop won't help, because we don't know who is wrong, and who is lying.
Edit: Also, if it doesn't bring out the Mafia. The Mafia will easily figure out who the Sane cop is, and kill them night 1. Then we have no leads anywhere.

We can make certain logical deductions. If I understand correctly, we know that we have exactly one of each type of cop. Do I have that right Zjoot? So, for example, if we get only one innocent result, we know for sure that the one with the innocent result is the Naïve Cop, and that the Sane Cop scried the Mafia. If the Mafia knows our results, he can choose his own claim so that we can't make these deductions. That's why my idea makes sense.

[Zjoot]

That is correct. There is only one of each cop.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, there was a mistake in the opening post. The day will last 72 hours and not 48.

[Duck999]

You are right, so that could work. When a cop dies are we told what cop he was?
On another note: Using percentage chance, there are probably 2 scoops on "mafia", and 2 on "cops". That would be saying the highest chance is for someone to get a scoop on a cop, since there are 4 cops and 1 mafia. The Naive cop would get an innocent automatically, and the sane cop has a 80% chance of getting a scoop on a cop. The paranoid cop automatically gets mafia, and the insane cop has a high chance of getting a scoop on a cop, making their result mafia. That would create 2 of each scoop. However, there is a chance that we get 3 and 1. If we do get 2 and 2, we might not have enough time to find out who is which cop.
I say we at least try to reveal our scoops. The only flaw I find is this: If we do not find the mafia, they have an advantage, knowing who is which cop. Wait, found a flaw in the flaw: If they night kill the sane cop night 1, then we know who the mafia is. How useful.

[Disc Lorde]

Roles are not revealed on death. That's in the rules in the OP.

Revealing our scoops and reasoning out who is what role would help the Mafia a bit, yes. But it would help the cops a whole lot more. As I said before, I think we should all reveal our scoops at once when everyone's online.

[Tom the Mime]

There's no guarantee everyone is going to be online at the same time so I don't really think much of waiting for that to happen. It might stop deep analysis for a claim but there are ways of limiting that without waiting for something that could be a bit iffy with timezones.

The scry is broken up into 2 parts - a who and a what. In the past to prevent mafia from making a clever claim going last people have revealed scries piecewise. Everyone reveals their first bit of information and then after that they reveal the second bit of info in reverse order (12345-54321). Stops each person from having too much data to make a full scry claim based on in-depth analysis. If mafia reveals first, they have full info for the last part of their scry claim but none for the first part. If they reveal last (5) they have one piece of information from everyone else to make theri full claim and that's it.

To start things rolling - Tom the Mime scried Aventine.

[Disc Lorde]

Well, we got everyone on at roughly the same time yesterday. But if that doesn't happen again today I'm down with your idea Tom.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not very fond of Tom's idea because I think the result is more important than the target. It's also important to note that we can combine our 2 methods. It doesn't hurt for people in sequence to reveal their results simultaneously.

[Tom the Mime]

Just clearing it up - when I mentioned the first bit of information, I wasn't saying everyone should reveal who then everyone reveals what. I just meant the info you're giving out first. A mix of both who's and what's would be expected.

[Saposhiente]

I would like to comment that when I am narrator for Dethy I would frown upon player synchronization based strategies intended to deprive the Mafia of the time needed to come up with the best lie. Dethy is supposed to be a game of considered, logical deduction, and that strategy if successfully implemented would remove this for the Mafia, eliminating fun. Strategies based on only revealing some of your information in order to make the Mafia's job harder would of course be fine.

[Aventine]

Well following Tom the Mime's plan:

Aventine scried Someone as Innocent

[Disc Lorde]

Yeah, I think Tom's plan is the best we got.

Disc Lorde scooped Duck999.

[Duck999]

Sounds good.
Duck999 scooped someone as Mafia.

Also, if you get mafia as a result on 2 people, you know you are the paranoid or insane cop.

[DukeGod]

Sounds good. Here's what I got

DukeGod has scooped Aventine

As the last, should I also divulge the second part of my result right? Either way it sounds like a good idea to say it

DukGod scryed someone as Mafia

And thus for now
Aventine

[Duck999]

We came up with a strategy to try to help us. Dukegod went ahead and changed that. We all know scrying someone as mafia means nothing because you could be Paranoid or Insane. Because Dukegod was so quick to change our strategy and voted without being sure that he was right, I will vote Dukegod for the time being. This could change.

[Tom the Mime]

We came up with a strategy to try to help us. Dukegod went ahead and changed that. We all know scrying someone as mafia means nothing because you could be Paranoid or Insane. Because Dukegod was so quick to change our strategy and voted without being sure that he was right, I will vote Dukegod for the time being. This could change.

DukeGod is following the strategy - he revealed last in the first round so he's first in the second. It's your turn in the second round now.

As for the vote, I wouldn't have voted yet personally but it just looks like a placeholder.

[Duck999]

Ah, I didn't realize that he was last. That's saying something about my counting skills.
Duck999 scooped Dukegod as something.

For now, my vote remains a placeholder.

[Disc Lorde]

Disc Lorde scooped someone as Mafia.

It's now Aventine's turn.

[Aventine]

I scried Duck999 as Innocent

To summarize the results so far:

Tom the Mime scried Aventine as …
Aventine scried Duck999 as Innocent
Disc Lorde scried Duck999 as Mafia
Duck999 scried DukeGod as Mafia
DukeGod scried Aventine as Mafia

[Tom the Mime]

And I scryed Aventine as innocent. And now to get started on the analysis

[Duck999]

So either Tom the Mime or Aventine is the Naive cop. The other is either sane, insane, or the mafia.
Of everyone else, we know one of them is paranoid and the other 2 are the ones that Aventine and Tom are not.
We must remember it is hard to tell the naive cop from the sane cop, since both will get innocent as a result on at least 4 people. So you can not claim either Aventine or Tom is the sane cop because you are innocent, because the naive cop would get the same result. On the other hand, the mafia could claim one of them as the naive or insane cop, because they are the mafia and definitely not innocent.
Sorry, I just had to add some humor to this.

[Disc Lorde]

All right, analysis time.

(CSI theme plays.)

Tom the Mime scried Aventine as Innocent
Aventine scried Duck999 as Innocent
Disc Lorde scried Duck999 as Mafia
Duck999 scried DukeGod as Mafia
DukeGod scried Aventine as Mafia

Let's start with Tom the Mime. If he were Mafia, that would mean that Aventine was the Naïve Cop and the Sane Cop got a scoop on the Mafia. But no one got a scoop on Tom, so that would be a contradiction. So Tom the Mime is definitely Innocent.

Next, Aventine. If he were Mafia, that would mean that Tom is the Naïve Cop and DukeGod is the Sane Cop. Duck and I would be the Paranoid and Insane Cops, in some order.

If any of the next 3 people were Mafia, there would have to be 2 Mafia and 2 Innocent scries. That would mean that either the Sane and Insane cops both scried them, or neither did.

I'm next on the list. No one scried me, so if I were Mafia, that would mean that Tom and Aventine were the Sane and Naïve Cops, and Duck and Duke were the Insane and Paranoid Cops, in some order.

If Duck were Mafia, that would mean that one of two cases are true. Either I'm Sane, Aventine is Insane, Tom is Naïve, and Duke is Paranoid, or I'm Paranoid, Aventine is Naïve, Tom is Sane, and Duke is Insane.

If Duke were Mafia, Duck would have to be Paranoid, which would mean I'm Insane and Tom and Aventine are Sane and Naïve, in some order.



So we know Tom is innocent from logical deduction, but that's the only person we can clear just from that. That won't do. We need to clear at least 2 more people. So now we have to analyze behavior and who's likely to be mafia based on these scries, and figure out if there's a strategy whereby the night 1 scries will narrow it down. This'll take some thinking.

[Disc Lorde]

*analyzing intensifies*

Well, I'm guessing Duck is innocent, for two reasons. The first is that he behavior seems town-y. He seems to be doing his best to reason and scumhunt, and the only thing that seems fishy to me is his jump on DukeGod, but I could buy that as an honest mistake, and also it seems a little obvious. I would think a wolf would be more subtle than that. Also, for him to be Mafia the players who scried him would have to be Sane and Insane or Naïve and Paranoid, which is 2 pairs out of 6 possible, so a 1/3 chance. That's slightly unlikely. So working under the assumption that Duck is innocent for now.

If we assume for now that Duck is innocent, that leaves three players left who could be Mafia: myself, Aventine, and DukeGod. They're both usually this quiet, so I can't narrow it down from their behavior. However, if we lynch DukeGod and the Mafia is Aventine, we kill our Sane cop. But if we lynch Aventine and DukeGod is Mafia we may be okay.

So, []Aventine[/s].

[Tom the Mime]

Here's a set of tables with the possible meanings of the scries, each table assuming that a specific person is mafia (indicated by the O). I think I've copied it over right.

	Mafia	Naive	Paranoid	Sane	Insane
Tom	O	X	X	X	X
DukeGod	X	X		X
Duck	X	X		X
Aventine	X		X		X
Disc	X	X		X

	Mafia	Naive	Paranoid	Sane	Insane
Tom	X		X		X
DukeGod	O	X	X	X	X
Duck	X	X		X	X
Aventine	X		X		X
Disc	X	X	X	X

	Mafia	Naive	Paranoid	Sane	Insane
Tom	X		X		X
DukeGod	X	X		X
Duck	O	X	X	X	X
Aventine	X		X	X
Disc	X	X			X

	Mafia	Naive	Paranoid	Sane	Insane
Tom	X		X	X	X
DukeGod	X	X	X		X
Duck	X	X		X
Aventine	O	X	X	X	X
Disc	X	X		X

	Mafia	Naive	Paranoid	Sane	Insane
Tom	X		X		X
DukeGod	X	X		X
Duck	X	X		X
Aventine	X		X		X
Disc	O	X	X	X	X

Straight away you can see I'm confirmed innocent by the contradiction if I'm mafia (as people mentioned before) and likely to die night 1. Looking at the table, a couple of ideal scry options also come up.

1)DukeGod scries Tom the Mime
If he gets an innocent result, he is not paranoid or insane. Crossing those out in the table clears Disc Lorde and Duck (as there's nothing left for DukeGod to be if they're mafia)
If he gets guilty, he isn't sane. Crossing this out clears Aventine.

2)Disc Lorde scries DukeGod
If he gets an innocent result, he's not paranoid and he's not insane unless DukeGod is mafia. Clears Aventine similar to above.
If he gets guilty, Duke is cleared as the tables show that if Duke is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane.

I can't find any other scries that clear someone regardless of the result so they should to be kept.

Duck999 is the only non-town firm who can be lynched without compromising the effectiveness of the above scries.

This would leave Aventine and I as either naive or sane (or possibly mafia for Aventine) in all remaining cases so we'd just scry Disc or Duke to see if we get a guilty scry to up the chances a little bit.

tl;dr version: If we lynch Duck999 we have the chance of him being mafia this lynch and a 50%+ chance of winning the next day if it gets that far.

[Duck999]

You can't clear people based on scries. The mafia could easily lie, clearing themselves. Nobody can really be cleared because of a lying mafia. I prefer Disc Lordes logic against Aventine.

[Disc Lorde]

Actually Duck, you can clear people as long as their not the one making the scry. In the case that the scrier is a Mafia, everyone else is not, so adding that case doesn't change the fact that someone else is cleared.

[Aventine]

Duck, assume one person is mafia and use the other scries to see what is possible. Repeat that for if everyone is mafia and you get a list of all the possible role distributions:

Mafia	Sane	Insane	Naïve	Paranoid
Aventine	Duke	Disc	Tom	Duck
Aventine	Duke	Duck	Tom	Disc
Disc	Aventine	Duck	Tom	Duke
Disc	Aventine	Duke	Tom	Duck
Disc	Tom	Duck	Aventine	Duke
Disc	Tom	Duke	Aventine	Duck
Duck	Disc	Aventine	Tom	Duke
Duck	Tom	Duke	Aventine	Disc
Duke	Aventine	Disc	Tom	Duck
Duke	Tom	Disc	Aventine	Duck

I put that together pretty quickly, but I don't think I missed any.


Now, if we follow Tom the Mime's plan and have DukeGod scry him, then there two possibilities.
If he gets an innocent result, then he is not Insane or Paranoid and we cross off the rows where he is listed there:

Mafia	Sane	Insane	Naïve	Paranoid
Aventine	Duke	Disc	Tom	Duck
Aventine	Duke	Duck	Tom	Disc
Duke	Aventine	Disc	Tom	Duck
Duke	Tom	Disc	Aventine	Duck

If he gets guilty then he can't be sane and we cross off those possibilities:

Mafia	Sane	Insane	Naïve	Paranoid
Disc	Aventine	Duck	Tom	Duke
Disc	Aventine	Duke	Tom	Duck
Disc	Tom	Duck	Aventine	Duke
Disc	Tom	Duke	Aventine	Duck
Duck	Disc	Aventine	Tom	Duke
Duck	Tom	Duke	Aventine	Disc
Duke	Aventine	Disc	Tom	Duck
Duke	Tom	Disc	Aventine	Duck

Similar thing for the second scry. Though Tom, if Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an innocent result, couldn't be be insane and DukeGod the mafia? You say he can't be paranoid or insane, am I missing something?

Naturally, he could be the mafia and be lying, but that is why we have multiple people scry. We should be able to narrow down the possibilities enough to get a good idea of who the mafia is.

Anyway, because Tom's plan sounds pretty good overall (though I will look to see if I can figure out any other good scry combinations), and because Duck999 seems a little too eager to not be lynched when it could be best for the cops, I vote for him.

EDIT:

However, if we lynch DukeGod and the Mafia is Aventine, we kill our Sane cop. But if we lynch Aventine and DukeGod is Mafia we may be okay.

Killing the sane cop isn't a big deal. The plan is to find the mafia by narrowing down the possibilities, not by trying to figure out who the sane cop is and hoping he hits the mafia. So losing the sane cop isn't a big deal if it helps us narrow things down. Because of that, and because your last post makes it sound like you understand what is going on with Tom's plan and using scries to narrow things down, would you switch to lynching Duck and following the plan?

[Tom the Mime]

Similar thing for the second scry. Though Tom, if Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an innocent result, couldn't be be insane and DukeGod the mafia? You say he can't be paranoid or insane, am I missing something?

It's when Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an guilty result that it clears DukeGod. The tables show that we already know that if DukeGod is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane so if he scried him as guilty it would create a contradiction, which would clear DukeGod. You probably just got a little mixed up given that can seems counterintuitive to clear someone by them being scried as guilty.

If DL scries DG and gets innocent, that's when it clears you.