Werewolf Classic III

[Alarra]

(I don't think changing votes multiple times is all that suspicious....some people are just really indecisive....like me. =) Now....someone tell me who to point at that has some real logic please.)

[Shadow]

"I've told you who we should be after, young lady. Zaaaar Peter. He wanted to see the blood of Torms... Torna... dat Torn guy and didn't want Enda... Endo... Enda'whos'a'whats'it to go down.
Then he immediately joins the first person to go back for Douglas today, using no solid reasoning, as you yourself agree.
Dat boy with the accent is yer man.

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

*The llamachu puts together some logic and tries to explain to the purple loving lass* Well...the wolves would not have joined the bandwagon early
since they hoped it would die, but when it started going strong
"Chu! Chu! Llama! llamachu! llama! llamachu! "
I'd wager one or two of them jumped on near the middle, just like
*then he points at Exachix*
Exachix did

[Castaras]

(( Now how did I know you were gonna vote that, Atreyu? ))

Castaras lowers her finger.

I'm really not sure...

She wanders off to ponder.

[Alarra]

You seem logical. I shall acquiesce. *points at Zar Peter

[Cult_of_the_Raven]

the cheese salesman harumphs. pointing this early in the morning. I haven't even broken out my store of Gouda. I ran out last night. she sighs. zar peter, you have offended a man with a lot of power. he says you die. I guess you shall die, sir.
raven points at zar peter

[The Valiant Turtle]

Raldor emerges from his house, the strain of seeing the mauled bodies of his friends and neighbors seems to be getting to him. The sight of EK's dented crown finally drives him over the edge. He halfway doubles over, puts his hands over his ears and screams.

NOooOOOOOoooooOOOOooo!

Suddenly there is a strange popping sound as the friendly shrubber seems to coalesce down to a single point and that point suddenly expands to reveal a strange turtle like creature.

Woah, I hate in when that happens. Where am I, who am I, and why are all of you looking at me. Haven't you ever seen a sea-turtle before?

You've probably never seen one out of the sea and levitating a few inches above the ground. So I guess I can understand. What's up?

As the turtle appraises itself of the situation it gets a little confused.

So you almost lynched this guy yesterday, but lynched somebody else instead that was a wolf, but you still want to lynch this guy? I don't think so. I'm not terribly persuaded about this Zar Peter fellow either, but at least you are making semi-logical arguments.

(( WooHoo! New Avatar! Anyway, the only way that would make much sense for douglas to still be a wolf is if he is the Devil, and the wolves decided yesterday to sacrifice Endevourl to save their Devil. I don't really think that's the case, but I'm still considering it. If there is a slight chance of getting the Devil, I might consider pointing at him, but I've really gotta think about this one. ))

The turtle zips over the land and splashes into the village pond.

[Joosbawx]

"Hmmmmm...Looking back to Evnafets' lists, [insert neat username here] appears twice, also. I suggest this as a point of interest and add a point to draw attention to the argument to see what comes of it."

Joosbawx points to [insert neat username here].

[[Insert Neat Username Here]]

((I just HAD to put a punctuation mark at the start of my name. The stupid thing puts me at the top of EVERY alphabetical list. Stupid [.))

Come on. Douglas is almost certainly a wolf. Just look at the evidence. Someone points at him, totally randomly, and he goes nuts defending himself. His only evidence: "I'm new."

Inky explains it a lot better than I could:

Douglas I really don't like your argument. You say you want to actually play the game. Well guess what, you are. Lynching is the whole point of this game. Don't complain about not playing the game if your unwilling to actually accept what happens as a common facet of it. Second you shouldn't try and become part of the fun and games by saying hey I'm new you shouldn't kill me or involve me because of that. For one thing your intentionally alienating yourself from the rest of the people playing by saying I'm new and your not, me and any other new people are this group and veterans are this group, we are seperate, and we new people should be treated like where not here. Thats not getting integrated, thats being a bystander but then saying you were part of the game. Likewise your making it so others have to ignore you and pretend your not there, just to avoid upsetting you because your "new" and therefore should be treated like some invincible royalty figure. Also I've never liked people trying to use guilt as an argument. You say you want people to use logic instead of being random, and then you go and make an ethos argument, completely unbased on logic in any way, in an attempt to guilt people into pointing at someone else, and whats worse its working. Now I'm not saying pointing randomly is a good thing, OR that then bandwagoning the random point is good either, but the argument you have made I simply do not like.

I point at Douglas.

In addition, after you were pointed at, you went crazy defending yourself. No one protests like the one with something to hide. Not only do i think your a wolf, but I think your a wolf who makes annoying arguments.

Besides, he only survived by one vote, which shows that a large number of us found this evidence incriminating enough to point.

[Endeavourl]

Enda... Endo... Enda'whos'a'whats'it

((, it's ok. No one ever gets my name right.))

[inky13112]

((I just HAD to put a punctuation mark at the start of my name. The stupid thing puts me at the top of EVERY alphabetical list. Stupid [.))

Come on. Douglas is almost certainly a wolf. Just look at the evidence. Someone points at him, totally randomly, and he goes nuts defending himself. His only evidence: "I'm new."

Inky explains it a lot better than I could:



Besides, he only survived by one vote, which shows that a large number of us found this evidence incriminating enough to point.

I was just about to post on this.

Now there is quite a bit of argument I would like to make about how much I dislike the dont lich me its not fair/guilt argument, however I feel I have already said enough on this so I'm going to move on.

I believe that Endeavourl was a gambit. A gambit (in chess anyways) is a sacrifice in order to get a development in pieces. Its a very clever tactic for the wolves to use. Basically they throw one of their members under a bus (a sacrifice) in order to make douglas, and to a lesser degree the others who voted for endeavourl, look extremely trustworthy. (a development in pieces) This has the benefit of, while you lose one, you make one (douglas) inherently trusted, because why would the wolves have redirected the bandwagon onto one of their own? By having someone trusted like this, they basically make the wolf team near unstoppable, because even if we lynch every one of them, we still won't lynch the one who clearly can't be a wolf, because what stupid wolves would redirect a bandwagon from one of their own, onto one of their own?

Now also look how fiercely Douglas defended himself last round. He says this is his second game. Well then, if he was a wolf on his second game, he would defend himself all the more fiercely since he gets to have the fun of being a special character this game. Afterwards he calmed down quite a bit. I believe that at first he was defending himself as he saw fit, and then later, as his fellow wolves got on and they formed a plan of action, he calmed down a bit, and just went with the Endeavourl flow.

In addition to all this, there is the fact that arguments based on causing guilt to those voting for you are frequently used to great effect by wolves such as in werewolves classic 2 (wow these classic games are getting into a habit of guilt based arguments) and the evidence adds up on Douglas.

Finally look who got lynched last night. EK was accusing Douglas of being a wolf, and then shortly thereafter EK gets eaten. Suspicious much?

Therefore, for all of these reasons, I believe you, douglas, are a wolf.

I point at Douglas

[Helgraf]

I be keepin' an eye on ye, Zar. Th' words o' yer fellow villagers may hae some merit to them. Bu' ... I dae hae mus f' now go wi' my gut ... an it' rumbles unpleasantly about Douglas. Or maybe tha' was jus a bit of mustard, some bad beef, a spot of underdone potato.

* Helgraf points at Douglas *

[Shadow]

"Helgy! Ow ya been? Deze ol' eyes ain't seen ya in near'a decade an'a half!"

[Douglas]

Someone points at him, totally randomly, and he goes nuts defending himself.

Someone points at me totally randomly, it starts a bandwagon, and I realize, having read previous WW games while waiting for this one to start, that if it gets much bigger it'll be pretty much impossible to stop without something like a seer declaration.

In response to Inky:
Endeavourl gambit: A reasonable strategy, but rather complex and easily countered by the seer. The gain is very uncertain while the loss is guaranteed. The wolves accelerating the first non-wolf bandwagon to pop up seems a much simpler and more likely explanation to me.

My defense: You have no meterstick at all to judge how fiercely I would defend myself with no special role. The calming down was the result of me forcing myself to take a break, go eat dinner, and come back with a deliberately less fierce tone because of the dogpile my earlier defense inspired.

The only guilt-based argument I remember from WWC2, though I admit there may have been several I don't remember because they just didn't seem to stand out, was EK's on day 1. A single example is not a trend.

EK votes for me -> EK gets eaten: Quite a few other people also voted for me, and EK was hardly the most influential of them. If the wolves' target were chosen to defend me, I doubt it would have been him.

Also, note that several of the people voting for me did so with almost no explanation, did it fairly quickly, and made no further comment. That sounds very much like a wolf pack decision to me, with the wolves posting to follow orders but not wanting to draw attention to themselves, while the Endeavourl vote built up gradually and with more comments/explanations, and the whole thing was started by a reasoning analysis.

[Zeb The Troll]

Zeb listens intently to all of the discussion going on.

There's quite a bit of solid thinking going on here. This decision weighs heavily on me since the last evening brought such unnecessary bloodshed. It seems that at this point the decision is between Zar Peter and Douglas.

The large stone man ponders heavily for a while. This doesn't appear to be a common task for him, all this pondering.

Well, I think you're both suspicious, but at this point Shadow's points about Zar Peter seem a little bit stronger to me and Douglas has a point about the riskiness of this 'gambit' business.

Я сожалею об этом, Товарищ Генерал, но Я указываю на Царя Питера.

(Ya sozhaleyoo ob etom, Tovarish General, no ya ookazivayoo na Zarya Petera.)

<<I'm sorry about this, Comrade General, but I point at Zar Peter.>>

Shaking his head solemnly, Zeb turns to Douglas and gives him a stern look, intended to let him know that he's still being watched, and heads back to his shop to continue working on the memorial.

((Oooh, I just had an idea about the "memorial" for this game. Gotta go see if I can figure out a way to make this work.))

[Ink]

Ink walks out of his bakery and surveys the scene.

"Hmm, I dunno, Douglas don't seem too suspicious to me after that whisker close voting yesterday. But some o' you seem all itchin' to get him killed. I think yer a wolf!"

* Ink points at inky13112

"But what do I know? I'm just a baker."

[Exachix]

Exachix hmms and points to Inky13112 looking precariously at the LLamachu.

[evnafets]

I disagree with the Douglas pointers.

Inky, yes your theory is plausible, but not very likely IMO.
The person who gets the credibility from yesterday's wolf lynch is not so much Douglas as myself.
I am the one who posted my analysis, and did the first point at Endeavourl.
I got lucky, and actually managed to finger a wolf.
Following your theory through, that would make me a wolf as well as Douglas.


Douglas originally got pointed at randomly from a die roll by Castaras.
The argument for pointing at him now is that he defended himself 'too strongly', and is thus a wolf.
Personally I don't believe in that argument. Of course a wolf would defend himself. So would a villager. In my book, defending yourself is not an admission of guilt.

[Insert] is pointing at Douglas for "defending too strongly"
I note though that [Insert] was pointed at, and also defended himself very quickly and strongly.
Where I come from thats "The pot calling the kettle black"

Basically, if Douglas is a wolf, I don't think Endeavourl would have pointed at him. There were definitely other targets to blend in among. The more likely scenario is that Endeavourl was just trying to appear as another sheep following the bandwagon.

Rumda worries me a little immediately trying to discredit my post yesterday. That one definitely bears watching.
But for now
evnafets points at [Insert Neat Username Here]

Pointed at Tormsskull on Day 1
Jumped on the bandwagon for Douglas yesterday
Tried to continue it today.

Am I certain? No.
Douglas could be a wolf. But he is well down on my list right now.

[Jontom Xire]

I am really confused by all this voting. People are basing their votes on what seems to be feelings. Now how's this for strong evidence?

1) Evnafets proposes Endeavourl as a wolf. Who instantly tries to undermine all basis for his accusation before counter-accusing?

Rumda

2) Close voting when one of the targets turns out to be a wolf is always very revealing. No matter the advantage wolves may gain for voting for a wolf, they prefer to do it such that the wolf in question DOESN'T get lynched. Douglas took an early lead, but just as Endeavourl is catching up (7 votes to 8) who votes for Douglas (possibly to try and save Endeavourl)?

Joosbawx.


I agree that Zar Peter and INUH are suspicious, but they could just be mis-interpreting newbie behaviour.

Jontom Xire points at Joosbawx

[InaVegt]

The ones with no color in their skin and white hair are the aggressors, the prophecy has told! Slay Castaras to protect your fellow villagers!

Gezina points at Castaras

[Korith]

I am really confused by all this voting. People are basing their votes on what seems to be feelings. Now how's this for strong evidence?

1) Evnafets proposes Endeavourl as a wolf. Who instantly tries to undermine all basis for his accusation before counter-accusing?

Rumda

2) Close voting when one of the targets turns out to be a wolf is always very revealing. No matter the advantage wolves may gain for voting for a wolf, they prefer to do it such that the wolf in question DOESN'T get lynched. Douglas took an early lead, but just as Endeavourl is catching up (7 votes to 8) who votes for Douglas (possibly to try and save Endeavourl)?

Joosbawx.


I agree that Zar Peter and INUH are suspicious, but they could just be mis-interpreting newbie behaviour.

Jontom Xire points at Joosbawx

Agreed.

Korith points at Joosbawx

[Gnome Barbarian]

"I would like to continue with Evnafets logic from yesterday. Raistlin pointed at tormsskull when he was being lynched as a villagers the first day as well as douglas yesterday. This leaves me with three Ideas.

1. Raistlin is a wolf voting for whoever the bandwagon is working against. He will no doubt want to vote for douglas this round again.

B. Douglas is a wolf and wolves split amongst him and Endeavourl

and Potatoes. Evnafets is a wolf. He was picked as a wolf pack member to gain our trust by sacrificing Endeavourl yesterday."

*Gnome Barbarian points at Raistlin

[Jontom Xire]

((Total OOC: Check out my new game at http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38808, in case you haven't already seen it)).

I agree Rasitlin is supicious, but if all of us who don't think Douglas is the most suspicious don't all get behind one candidate then Douglas will get lynched anyway.

[Kantur]

*Kantur points at Zar Peter

[Thes Hunter]

(( Harddrive loss, fellowship grants, and thesis issues are stealing my time to play! ))

Thes replaces her usually mediocre roleplaying posts with a diet coke of posts.


*** Thes points at Zar Peter **

[Joosbawx]

"I think that Korith and Jontom are trying to start a bandwagon of their own in order to save their compatriot, douglas. I still find [insert neat username here]'s behavior suspect; however, to move things along I switch my vote at put the following names on a public list:

douglas
[insert neat username here]
Jontom Xire
Korith

Make of it what you will."

Joosbawx moves his finger from [insert neat username here] to douglas.

[The Valiant Turtle]

Raldor the turtle comes out of the pond to bask in the sun for a while.

Well, we are getting some good reasoning today. This is good. I don't agree with most of the reasoning against douglas, but as I said earlier he may be the Devil, which would partially explain the close bandwagon race yesterday, but I think that's unlikely at this point. Maybe we'll lynch him tomorrow since so many people seem to be obsessed with him. I'm tempted to point at Rumda for reasons that others have stated, but I don't think I want to add another person to the mix. I don't quite understand why everyone is pointing at Zar Peter, perhaps if someone can enlighten me I'll join that cause. For now I believe the arguments against Joosbawx hold the most merit.

Raldor points his flipper at Joosbawx

(( I briefly skimmed the thread looking at Zar Peter's posts and didn't see much that raised a warning flag to me. Did I miss something? ))

[Korith]

"I think that Korith and Jontom are trying to start a bandwagon of their own in order to save their compatriot, douglas. I still find [insert neat username here]'s behavior suspect; however, to move things along I switch my vote at put the following names on a public list:

douglas
[insert neat username here]
Jontom Xire
Korith

Make of it what you will."

Joosbawx moves his finger from [insert neat username here] to douglas.

I have been in contact with Jontom Xire, and we have discussed our mutual suspicians. I do not know his role for certain. Furthermore, my style of play in every werewolf game to date has been to avoid such obvious pairings while a wolf and try to herd public concensus onto the villagers.

Don't try going around trying to make simple agreement look like a conspiracy. It doesn't help when trying to establish an ordered game structure in which the villagers hold the advantage.

I'll also point out that you appear to be using a diversionary tactic by calling bandwagon.

[Castaras]

* Points at Zar Peter

[Joosbawx]

Chuckling, Joosbawx replies to Korith. "Vote for me if you like; however, you'll only end up disappointed. Unless, you know, you actually are wolves. then I suppose you wouldn't be disappointed at all."