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Thread: Apple WW

  1. - Top - End - #421
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    One more comment-

    Quote Originally Posted by Firedaemon
    It wouldn't even have occurred to me to fake a back and forth
    Didn't have to, Aventine is the one who began the back and forth. All you have to do is not ignore a direct post directed at you specifically.

    Ignoring it would have been weirder. Far weirder.

    Then you can only say, well, Aventine wouldn't have come up with a faked back and forth.

    You can't say that, though. If you say that, considering me a suspect is even more puzzling.

    So, right here, your logic falls to bits, my fiery daemony friend.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm actually wondering where I should bet at this point.

    @ Sprig, because I trust your opinion so far, and @ all others:

    What rank do you rank these as most likely?

    A) Braveheart guilty, Firedaemon innocent
    B) Braveheart innocent, Firedaemon guilty
    C) Braveheart innocent, Firedaemon innocent
    D) Braveheart guilty, Firedaemon guilty


    I think (C) both are innocent is at like 1 percent, at best right now, but I'm not entirely confident I should bet the farm on option D. However, option D, I think it's more likely than not likely.

    If it matters, and does it matter, which one goes first? Is A or B more likely than D?

    In the universe where C is the case, who are two other suspects?

  2. - Top - End - #422
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Alright. Since it seems to have been erroneously decided that I am not town, and I can't seem to do much to change people's minds, here's my plan B:

    Looking at the vote tally for the day Aventine was lynched, people I'm suspicious of right now are: Braveheart, Vwulf Demarcus, Sphazre, AvatarVecna and Rammus/Ruki/Pizzaguy

    Of those, the order of suspicion to me is as follows: Sphazre, AvatarVecna, Pizzaguy, Braveheart, Vwulf.

    I don't trust how fast this wagon built on Braveheart, otherwise I absolutely would have supported it, I'm just...Really suspicious, especially with how hard Pizza is pushing it. Sphazre and AvatarVecna I'm suspicious of because the former didn't switch off of Aventine at all, and the latter seemed resistant to it until the last possible second: Plenty of time for Aventine to tell him to just give up.

    As for you, Pizzaguy, you're in limbo. If Braveheart flips wolf, you're cemented in my mind as town. If he flips town, on the other hand, I'd be almost certain you're a wolf. And for the record, I might be a bit biased by Rammus' actions as well, especially since FC turned out to be the seer/fool.

  3. - Top - End - #423
    Sprig
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Oh D for (about 65%) sure.

    With A or B sitting around 90%

    In the unlikely event of C - I would be focusing my attention on Vwulf DeMarcus & Sphazre

    Next in the queue would be ThePhantom, Rain Dragon, Penguinator & AvatarVecna.


    Edit: you said two
    Last edited by Sprig; 2014-12-20 at 07:32 PM.

  4. - Top - End - #424
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Thank you, FD. I appreciate that post.

    That's what villagers need to do when they're accused. After giving a defense, gotta return to offense.

    I think Sprig was talking to some peeps in private in conversations I'm not privy to, but I did get the Sprig-Ramsus communications fwded to me.

    A lot to read, and I don't know how much of it was constructive, but I think Sprig and, more precisely, the persons he's talking to privately are in a better position to determine AvatarVenca's alignment than myself.

    I believe he could be neutral based on that determination being dropped publicly by Sprig as a theory, but also, I think his play thusfar has been pro-village, and if you're neutral you gotta play pro-village until they're on their deathbed.

    Spoiler
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    As far as I'm concerned, he's a villager if he's neutral unless his actions dictate otherwise, or the situation goes completely belly-up for village and there's a better chance of winning some other way. Then again they have an unknown objective. But, they don't represent an evil voting bloc like the bad apples presently do, and they're not murdering. As with the Minecraft game, we lost a round going after a neutral, the correct order, if any, is bad guys first, then deal with third party evils. Third party evils even represent a threat to the bad guys a good portion of the time. Letting an evil voting bloc live is bad for village.


    I noticed Sphazre and Vwulf in my analysis as well, but I do not think both are guilty, and I am concerned about hitting the wrong person there, if either one of them is even right.

    I also looked at Penguinator, and for a while it was between Penguinator and FD for my second candidate, but as of right now, Penguin is off my top list.

  5. - Top - End - #425
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by firedaemon33 View Post
    Alright. Since it seems to have been erroneously decided that I am not town, and I can't seem to do much to change people's minds,
    Who is voting for you pray tell?

    here's my plan B:

    Looking at the vote tally for the day Aventine was lynched, people I'm suspicious of right now are: Braveheart, Vwulf Demarcus, Sphazre, AvatarVecna and Rammus/Ruki/Pizzaguy

    Of those, the order of suspicion to me is as follows: Sphazre, AvatarVecna, Pizzaguy, Braveheart, Vwulf.
    So you will be joining me with a vote on Avatar then?


    I don't trust how fast this wagon built on Braveheart, otherwise I absolutely would have supported it, I'm just...Really suspicious, especially with how hard Pizza is pushing it. Sphazre and AvatarVecna I'm suspicious of because the former didn't switch off of Aventine at all, and the latter seemed resistant to it until the last possible second: Plenty of time for Aventine to tell him to just give up.
    How about how fast the Rain Dragon bandwagon pulled off? That was a more substantial wagon than braveheart who has a measly 4 votes.

  6. - Top - End - #426
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    In the unlikely event of C - I would be focusing my attention on Vwulf DeMarcus & Sphazre
    I agree, it's unlikely, yet they still danced on the edge of my consciousness for a while.

    I'm just seeing that one as....

    Town's been doing it to ourselves, and the wolves have been getting lucky. Not to impugn their skills, because in this case, they're definitely in a great position and dodging our suspicions.

    With Braveheart and FD, I see more deliberate scenarios.

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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Mmhmm. And that was what taught me the lesson to be suspicious of fast wagons. As for who to vote for now...I'm trusting you to deal with the AvatarVecna situation, so...Braveheart. After some consideration, his death one way or another will give me the most information.
    Last edited by Ionbound; 2014-12-20 at 07:43 PM.

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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Sprig, you think Avatar is of the harmful variety of neutral, or worse, I'd presume? From your vote?

    Feel free to clarify to me in private if you'd like.

  9. - Top - End - #429
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Sprig, you think Avatar is of the harmful variety of neutral, or worse, I'd presume? From your vote?

    Feel free to clarify to me in private if you'd like.
    I have no idea whether Avatar is neutral or not. It was purely speculation on my part. After that FC, told me very strongly that he thought there was no neutrals.
    Last edited by Sprig; 2014-12-20 at 07:58 PM.

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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    I have no idea whether Avatar is neutral or not. It was purely speculation on my part. After that FC, told me very strongly that he thought there was no neutrals.
    Oooooooooooh! We might has a number three suspect then!

    Nice!

    Very productive day.

    Edit: Off to go eat some food, be back later yall.
    Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 2014-12-20 at 08:16 PM.

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    Default Re: Apple WW

    I want to hear a lot more from these suspicious folks. AvatarVecna's probably neutral, so he's less dangerous than braveheart, who looks downright wolfy.

    Of note: I had believed I had quoted some posts, but then found out that my computer had logged me out.

    My biggest suspicions are braveheart, firedaemon, Vwulf, and sphazre. Three of them have barely posted.
    Last edited by Penguinator; 2014-12-20 at 09:06 PM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    I have no idea whether Avatar is neutral or not. It was purely speculation on my part. After that FC, told me very strongly that he thought there was no neutrals.
    ? You mean the neutral roles are harmful, or the neutral roles weren't assigned?

    I don't think firedaemon is a wolf, he wouldn't have switched so fast onto Aventine otherwise. Pizzaguy could be, mostly because of how Ramsus was trying to lynch FC.

    Braveheart for now, at least until he responds.
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Well, I'm still at a lost on what is who, so Braveheart.
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    allright so it seems I am going to die, and when I flip town the rest of the village will learn something. I don't get why I became the primary target, perhaps my ineptness this game has caused it. Anyway I saw great arguments from Pizzaguy about FD and for the multiple choice I believe that it is B. Also I still think rain dragon is a wolf and can't provide a third suspect. My quiet has doomede I accept my fate.


    (I know I didn't give any analysis, I'm bad at it I have only ever played before in person, and only mafia at that. This makes warewolf foreign to me due to both the roles and my inability to read people's faces.)
    Last edited by braveheart; 2014-12-22 at 03:56 PM.
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    I'm not sure really, but I would name Sphazre, Vwulf DeMarcus and Firedaemon33 as suspects as well (aside from Braveheart) for reasons well covered above.

    Quote Originally Posted by sphazre View Post
    ? You mean the neutral roles are harmful, or the neutral roles weren't assigned?

    I don't think firedaemon is a wolf, he wouldn't have switched so fast onto Aventine otherwise. Pizzaguy could be, mostly because of how Ramsus was trying to lynch FC.

    Braveheart for now, at least until he responds.
    In the quote you quoted, I had the impression they meant the neutral roles were not assigned.

    Quote Originally Posted by braveheart View Post
    Also I still think rain dragon is a wolf and can't provide a third suspect. My quiet has doomede I accept my fate.

    (I know I didn't give any analysis, I'm bad at it I have only ever played before in person, and only mafia at that. This makes warewolf foreign to me due to both the roles and my inability to read people's faces.)
    Why do you believe me to be a wolf?
    What do you think of those others who were named? Sphazre, Vwulf DeMarcus and AvatarVecna.

    (I just thought maybe some more specific questions might help you focus and find something to say)

    Also, as it is the weekend (and Midwinter/Midsummer on top of that) the day's 72 hours long (link) so there's another couple of days for discussion, so I hope you don't feel too discouraged.
    I go by they/them/their or he/him/his pronouns

  16. - Top - End - #436
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    RD is right - plenty of time!

    More avatar please!!!

  17. - Top - End - #437
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by sphazre View Post
    ? You mean the neutral roles are harmful, or the neutral roles weren't assigned?

    I don't think firedaemon is a wolf, he wouldn't have switched so fast onto Aventine otherwise.
    Context:

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    I have a Scry to test. Aventine has been scryed wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by firedaemon33 View Post
    Alright, trusting that Sprig is a townie for now: Aventine
    Why is moving onto a scried guilty target impressive?

    Let me show you what I was referring to earlier. It was a game hosted by Penguinator.

    Spoiler
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by BourgeoisJerry View Post
    [snip]

    Duck has been rubbing me the wrong way for a bit, but I'll need more time to go back and do some real analysis on him. Count Dingdong and Tasroth are also on my list of people to look into due to Tasroth's role claim.
    2:45 AM, 1 vote on guilty Duck.
    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Right, almost forgot to vote.

    Duck))
    Bladescape jumps on Duck 3 posts later. Bladescape was guilty Duck's guilty teammate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Tell you what, I'll follow Bladescape.

    Like it or not I still think you're villaging.

    Duck
    I jump on Duck. Keep in mind, there's someone with 4 votes on them at the time.
    Two others join in on Duck, and then Firedaemon does.
    Quote Originally Posted by firedaemon33 View Post
    Might as well jump on the Duck999 bandwagon. I do trust Dingdong, moreso than anyone else right now other than Aric.
    Firedaemon was guilty Duck's guilty teammate.


    There was no scry result on Duck at all in that game.

    And there were TWO wolf votes on Duck to put him into the lead over someone else.

    So....



    Um, guys?

    Why is it so impressive Firedaemon leaps onto a scried guilty party in this game?

    What's the actual risk?

    Not only has Firedaemon hardcore bussed one of eir own teammates without needing an investigatory result in the previous game I played, with one of those teammates jumping on as the number two vote, and Firedaemon puts a finishing vote on Duck, but in this game, the teammate in question was already sunk. Publicly.

    Why is that impressive?

    I think you guys were just forgetting the context.

    And by the by, wolves know when one of their teammates are sunk, particularly when they're going to make the decision to toss them under the bus.

    Once they do that, there is no... "why would I vote to lynch my own teammate" nonsense. The answer is, because later on, you get to pose that question.

    It didn't turn out to give bladescape enough credits to survive that other game, and it didn't do it for Firedaemon either.

    In this game, Avvie was scried guilty. It should grant firedaemon no credit at all. Anyone can bus a scried guilty teammate.


    ...

    *whooo*

    That's a lot of argument to prove a relatively simple point. But the bottom line is this: Firedaemon is straight-up lying to you when Firedaemon dropped this line, in this thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by firedaemon33 View Post
    That said, you also seem to have missed that I was one of the first people to vote for Aventine. So riddle me this, if you have all the answers about me: If I was a wolf, why would I swap onto Aventine despite the fact he was barely on the town's radar at the time.
    A) Someone just said he was scried guilty, so A is testing a guilty scry on a guilty teammate.
    B) Firedaemon's own team did just that in the previous game I played with Firedaemon, so it's very much a tactic FD would be familiar with.
    C) Firedaemon has buried a teammate before as soon as the winds had shifted against them. And like I said, that time, the person wasn't even known to be guilty.


    It's easy for bad guys to lynch their own.

    Hell, Fleeing Coward was innocent and he said this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward View Post
    Sprig's not the seer. This whole thing comes an hour before the day ends.

    This looks like a blatant attempt to save Rain Dragon.
    Hello? Guys?

    Innocent people aren't sure someone is guilty, even with scry results.

    But guilty teammates KNOW when their teammate is sunk. They can even decide when that is.

    Pure and simple.


    ----------------

    Quote Originally Posted by sphazre View Post
    Pizzaguy could be, mostly because of how Ramsus was trying to lynch FC.
    That, I will argue, was Ramsus being Ramsus.

    There is apparently some kind of out-of-game reason for Ramsus to want to lynch FC, from what I can see. I guess FC must have manipulated or lied (in a mafia game! Golly!) and that rubs Ramsus the wrong way.

    Some people believe that the best way to play mafia games is to be as honest as possible at all times.

    I am very much not a subscriber to that theory. But that's just me.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by braveheart View Post
    allright so it seems I am going to die, and when I flip town the rest of the village will learn something. I don't get why I became the primary target, perhaps my ineptness this game has caused it. Anyway I saw great arguments from Pizzaguy about FD and for the multiple choice I believe that it is B. Also I still think rain dragon is a wolf and can't provide a third suspect. My quiet has doomede I accept my fate.

    (I know I didn't give any analysis, I'm bad at it I have only ever played before in person, and only mafia at that. This makes warewolf foreign to me due to both the roles and my inability to read people's faces.)
    I can go over the reasons for you again, it's essentially because of who you tried to keep in the crosshairs and the reasons why you kept them there. It's a wolf's wet dream to have a village keep focus on the same three innocent people.

    I feel your non-defense is somewhat damning, but villagers often have no defense.

    Hey! Maybe you just appear to be playing for the opposing team.

    Zing.

    Firedaemon's defense is a defense, but it's more incriminating than exculpatory, from where I sit.

    So, what did that pizza-related guy say before?

    Quote Originally Posted by Querythecalzoneman
    What rank do you rank these as most likely?
    Most:
    D) Braveheart guilty, Firedaemon guilty
    B) Braveheart innocent, Firedaemon guilty
    A) Braveheart guilty, Firedaemon innocent
    C) Braveheart innocent, Firedaemon innocent
    Least.

    I think the correct answer is D, but if it matters, I think B is more likely than A.

    I'm almost 100 percent option C is not true.
    Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 2014-12-22 at 03:56 AM.

  18. - Top - End - #438
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Hello! Sorry I haven't been responding; my gf's finals are finally over, and we've been spending the night together. For now, I'm free to continue turning my brains to mush via overexposure to the internet, so I'm here to make an analysis of the Aventine bandwagon.

    Spoiler: Aventine stuff
    Show


    Sprig started the Aventine bandwagon by claiming to be seer. This took pressure off of Rain Dragon (who, according to Penguinator, had a similar voting pattern to Aventine). This could mean that Sprig or RD is the seer/fool, but it proves nothing.

    FD immediately jumped on the Aventine bandwagon; this doesn't prove anything, as there's a decent argument for them being town or wolf. Of more interesting note is that ThePhantom (who others have said tends to post rarely) posted nearly as quickly as FD did. This adds another point to my "curious TP activities" list: I can buy them normally being quiet, but they just happened to be online when Sprig dropped the S-bomb? It's not necessarily suspicious, but it's just as incriminating/non-incriminating as FD's quick response is.

    AvatarVecna joins on a few minutes later. It's possible AV is a wolf trying to avoid being the last one on a fellow wolf's bandwagon, but it's also possible AV wasn't clicking refresh as often. Once again, right around the same time, Rain Dragon (the person who the original bandwagon had formed on) votes for Aventine; this has the double effect of showing their support for the seer while reducing their own chance of death. As with AV, this vote is late enough (by the number of votes on the Aventine bandwagon) that they could be a wolf trying to avoid being the last to vote for a wolf.

    Penguinator votes for Aventine a few minutes later, while reminding everyone of RD's voting record being similar to Aventine's. If RD is killed and flips town, this is a mark against Penguinator (on top of their having started a bandwagon focused on Tanar and Legato, who both flipped town). On the other hand, if RD dies later on and flips wolf, then Penguinator is probably trustworthy; they've been pointing out RD's suspicious behavior for long enough that if it's a wolf ruse, it a dedicated wolf ruse.

    Fleeing Coward voted Aventine, but later switched back onto RD, claiming that the Aventine bandwagon formed too quickly; note that this is the same reasoning they used for not supporting the RD bandwagon. FC points out how Sprig saved RD, making a short argument that the two of them could be wolves orchestrating the assassination of their fellow wolf, but that seems a bit far-fetched. AV spent some time debating FC about the RD vs Aventine bandwagons, with FC eventually convincing AV to switch, before switching back themselves. If FC's argument was a ruse to draw out wolves by giving them an easy way to get off of the Aventine wagon, it appeared to only attract a couple people, with the only player seriously considering switching being AvatarVecna (that makes a potential mark against AV).

    That said, AV argued fairly hard in favor of lynching Aventine; if AV is a wolf, it's certainly a curious ruse to try and convince someone to vote for your teammate, although it has potential. On the other hand, if AV is town, then it would've appeared that FC was trying to divert attention away from Aventine close to the deadline. While this seemed suspicious at the time, FC has since then been revealed to be the seer/fool. It should be noted that FC and AV were quickly convinced to change their votes back to Aventine.

    Of the remaining players, Ramsus (who had been replaced by Hariku-kun), Aventine, sphazre, braveheart, and Vwulf Demarkus failed to comment after Sprig's S-bomb. Of the five of them, it's understandable why HK didn't respond (since they only got added to this game...what, hours before this happened), but the others are curiously absent. From my previous IRL nights playing this game, I've noticed that Aventine tends to be online right around the cut off point, which begs the question of why they didn't change their own vote to Rain Dragon.

    All three of the remainders have commented since the end of the night (but curiously, none of them commented during the night itself). Vwulf and sphazre both jumped on the quickly forming braveheart wagon, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

    Hopefully something here can be useful to someone more skilled in analysis than myself. And once again, sorry for being out of contact for so long, but real life takes precedent sometimes, you know?

    @ATPG

    If we assume that FD is wolf, we can conclude that they either knew the bandwagon would form quickly and didn't want to be left out, or they thought it was too late for a sufficiently powerful bandwagon to form, and decided to get on the seer's good side; even if Aventine only lived another day, it was still one more dead villager. Of course, this begs the question of whether or not we're twisting the facts to fit our theories, rather than changing our theories to fit the facts; it's entirely possible that FD is simply a dedicated townie who wished to assist in testing the seer scry, or maybe they just had a vendetta against Aventine (this has been the game for meta-vendettas, after all). Just because some of the facts might fit under certain assumptions doesn't make those assumptions accurate.

    Also, the problem I see with being completely honest in WW/Mafia is that you have to assume that not everyone is being completely honest; at the very least, the wolves are going to lie. And if the wolves are going to lie, why be honest with them? It would just cause nothing but trouble for the village down the road.


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  19. - Top - End - #439
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Hey Pizzaguy. Don't make conclusions from a game where someone's a wolf if you don't have access to the wolf's private communications. And if you actually paid attention to what you were saying and did have that access, it would be revealed that I didn't like that tactic and it took both bladescape and Dingdong yelling at me in the private chat to vote for Duck already because he was already dead. And if Aventine was my wolfbuddy, I certainly would not have been the second person to jump on him. Third or fourth, maybe.

    And yes, I happened to be online when Sprig sent me a PM. I'm usually online unless I'm asleep, so...Yeah.

  20. - Top - End - #440
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    For the record: I sent anyone online a pm and some to those that appear offline soon after I drop my scry result on Aventine in thread.

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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    For the record: I sent anyone online a pm and some to those that appear offline soon after I drop my scry result on Aventine in thread.
    Can I ask what this is a response to? If its my note about sending PMs to FC, I was referring to earlier, right around when Internet Flea said "I will neither confirm nor deny that any playyer has sent any other player a PM ever".


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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    @ATPG

    If we assume that FD is wolf, we can conclude that they either knew the bandwagon would form quickly and didn't want to be left out, or they thought it was too late for a sufficiently powerful bandwagon to form, and decided to get on the seer's good side;
    Even strangely late seer claims or seer result claims get way more benefit of the doubt than they really should, it's easy to anticipate a sudden switch of several votes, regardless of the time remaining, once that bomb drops. Switching quickly is easy for a wolf because they know, for the rest of the game, that teammate is sunk. They have a seer result of guilty. Even if they survive this round, they likely won't survive the next, and trying to look like you're willing to lynch them at a moment's notice is far better for one's own survival than, let's say, doing what FC did, and arguing that the seer claim came too late.

    In an identical situation in another game, I'd have been suspicious of both the seer claim, and FC suggesting the seer claim shouldn't be listened to. Both actions, given the lateness of the round, are suspect.

    However, this is one of those rare cases where not only was the late result reveal accurate, but also, the person questioning it was a villager.

    So, where were the bad apples? If they weren't faking the result and they weren't questioning the result, the options that remain are, ignoring the result, or agreeing enthusiastically with the result.

    Easy to do. Hedging one's bets and equivocation is a lot more likely to result in unwanted attention, so wise wolves avoid doing that. Wise villagers note that wise wolves try to avoid doing that sometimes.

    it's entirely possible that FD is simply a dedicated townie who wished to assist in testing the seer scry, or maybe they just had a vendetta against Aventine (this has been the game for meta-vendettas, after all). Just because some of the facts might fit under certain assumptions doesn't make those assumptions accurate.
    Doubtful. FD and Aventine had a cordial if distant relationship all game. Which is incriminating in my world. Until Aventine was scried guilty, I doubt if FD would have ever gone after him. Or spoke to him again.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by firedaemon33 View Post
    And if Aventine was my wolfbuddy, I certainly would not have been the second person to jump on him. Third or fourth, maybe.
    What's the big difference between third and second, especially in a revealed scry situation?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Anyhoo, Sprig prompting the vote switch is a factor which I will take under advisement.

    It does mean that it changes the motive by a fair amount.

    What it doesn't negate is the vote record or the rest of the defense given, which wasn't great in either case. But it's enough to give me pause.

    - - - Updated - - -

    ---------------------------------------


    Gah, there's no one posting anything.

    I'll do a full re-read on Firedaemon when I get back from work.

    Something else that is giving me pause is that almost everything that FD has said so far has sort of dug deeper into the hole. Why keep giving answers that worsen one's position?

    Given the lack of votes on FD, and the major wagon against Braveheart, an accusation shouldn't hold enough weight to cause the kind of distress that makes wolves fumble their position away.

    This could merely be FD's honest outlook on play, and even if I don't personally understand it, that doesn't mean anything positive or negative. Case in point- maybe being third or fourth on a wagon of a teammate means something to FD, it means basically nothing to me. It just has little logical difference. But, maybe it has some kind of symbolic meaning to FD. Maybe it really is FD's policy to not quickly bus a teammate no matter what, even if other teammates are encouraging it.

    I don't have all the facts.

    One thing I do is I look for things I would definitely do as a wolf and assume other wolves are doing it. That is definitely a bad assumption if someone has a diametrically different approach to wolfing.

    My vote will probably switch back to braveheart when I get home. Need to clear my head and give it a closer look later.

    See you guys in approximately 10 hours.

  23. - Top - End - #443
    Sprig
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Can I ask what this is a response to? If its my note about sending PMs to FC, I was referring to earlier, right around when Internet Flea said "I will neither confirm nor deny that any playyer has sent any other player a PM ever".
    it was in response to FD's defense that she switched over because she was prompted. I was confirming that was true that i prompted her to switch.

  24. - Top - End - #444
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Another thing to keep in mind about the Seer test was that Aventine turned out to be the Crab Apple. If I was lynched instead of Aventine due to the Crab Apple's vote negation ability and turned out to be town then all the people who were not voting for Aventine would be more likely to be scrutinized more closely. If I was lynched instead of Aventine due to the Crab Apple's vote negation ability and turned out to be a wolf then not only was a wolf already lynched but it would be very obvious who is the Crab Apple. That would be two wolves for the price of one.

    EDIT - Basically what I'm getting at is it doesn't look to me to be a risk worth taking for a wolf.

    Pizza makes a compelling argument though FD's behaviour hasn't seemed out of place for them to me.


    Either way, the tally looks like this to me (I hopefully got it right). It's a bit landslidey at the moment.

    Braveheart 7 AskthePizzaGuy, Rain Dragon, Vwulf DeMarcus, AvatarVecna, Firedaemon33, Penguinator, Sphazre, ThePhantom,
    Firedaemon33 2 Braveheart, AskthePizzaGuy,
    AvatarVecna 1 Sprig,
    AskthePizzaGuy 0 Firedaemon33,

    Not yet voted: -
    Last edited by Rain Dragon; 2014-12-21 at 08:27 PM.
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  25. - Top - End - #445
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Wow really, I would have expected more during my absence.

    Huh.

    Yeah at work when I actually had time to think about it, I tried to think back on other times where I had someone, what looked like dead to rights, and their defense just made them look worse and worse. But in the cases where people just plain old played the game differently from me, my analysis was strikingly less accurate than my average.

    I'll put it to you guys like this: If it is your average player, or most any other player who is in this or any other mafia game, Firedaemon's behavior would look guilty as sin to me.

    That being said, Firedaemon is... Firedaemon. And Firedaemon is not Askthepizzaguy or a similar wolf player. And even I know that from playing other games.

    I probably find Firedaemon to be interesting to play with because it's such a different experience.

    I'm going to recuse myself on trying to figure out if Firedaemon is guilty or not. I may have the right toolset to figure someone else out, but I'm probably going to come up with the wrong alignment if I guess Firedaemon.

    So, unvote Firedaemon.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Firedaemon: If you're on my team I'm going to need your help. Thanks for putting up with my prosecution.

  26. - Top - End - #446
    Sprig
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    I would like some more votes on Avatar personally who I have discovered is a startling capable player.

    ATPG: I think your initial instincts are correct in regards to both Braveheart and Firedeamon. So much so that I feel we are not going to get much more conversation out of the other players... which is disappointing.

  27. - Top - End - #447
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    ATPG: I think your initial instincts are correct in regards to both Braveheart and Firedeamon. So much so that I feel we are not going to get much more conversation out of the other players... which is disappointing.
    Maybe.

    I think it is interesting that almost no one wanted to put votes on Firedaemon. Some said yeah it's a good lead, but almost no action.

    I'm not sure how to read it- if Braveheart is guilty, wouldn't lynching an innocent firedaemon be a coup for the bad apples? So why not vote there?

    If braveheart is innocent wouldn't a bad apple want to look good for voting for Firedaemon instead, and let village eat the bad lynch while voting for an unknown?

    So I don't know how to read it. I guess I have to see how BH flips.

  28. - Top - End - #448
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
    I would like some more votes on Avatar personally who I have discovered is a startling capable player.
    "Wow, he's looking to be a pretty good player...LET'S LYNCH HIM!"

    Seriously though, while I've never played online before, my experience--you know, a whole half a game--is proving to be much more enjoyable than IRL WW, if only because there's so much time to think things through. It's wonderful having time to react, since it means less mistakes are made.

    So, Sprig: since your original argument for voting for me was that you wanted a placeholder vote, I'd appreciate it if you provided an actual argument for people to vote for me, if you want them to do so.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xumtiil View Post
    An Abattoir Vecna, if you will.
    My Homebrew

  29. - Top - End - #449
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Maybe.

    I think it is interesting that almost no one wanted to put votes on Firedaemon. Some said yeah it's a good lead, but almost no action.

    I'm not sure how to read it- if Braveheart is guilty, wouldn't lynching an innocent firedaemon be a coup for the bad apples? So why not vote there?

    If braveheart is innocent wouldn't a bad apple want to look good for voting for Firedaemon instead, and let village eat the bad lynch while voting for an unknown?

    So I don't know how to read it. I guess I have to see how BH flips.
    I was going to change votes until I saw your post second guessing yourself. However, your 're-read' didn't provide any new information to look at for me. I'm still suspicious of Firedaemon33.

    I think since it's so close to important holidays for many people globally the entire forum's quieter. Other games I'm playing are much quieter as well at this point.

    All that said, though, I will join Sprig in voting for AvatarVecna.
    Like I said before, I dislike days with one ginormous wagon and little else going on.
    Last edited by Rain Dragon; 2014-12-22 at 05:51 PM.
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  30. - Top - End - #450
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    Default Re: Apple WW

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    "Wow, he's looking to be a pretty good player...LET'S LYNCH HIM!"

    Seriously though, while I've never played online before, my experience--you know, a whole half a game--is proving to be much more enjoyable than IRL WW, if only because there's so much time to think things through. It's wonderful having time to react, since it means less mistakes are made.
    Narration:

    AvatarVecna telegraphed his flawless victory well before the majority of the village even suspected anything treacherous afoot. Even the once-admired Pizza-related person, confident in his sleuthing, completely missed the ever-growing danger of the Avatar Of Vecna, the greatest villain in all of Dungeons and Dragons lore.

    Meanwhile, the precipitous Dragon of Meteorological Phenomena raised its mighty claw in accusation of the Avatar, clucking its forked tongue in disdain for the foolish little apples who seemed quite unaware of the dastardly villain in their midst.

    Our humble narrator even paused to consider which of them was the TRUE villain in our midst. Was the villain a kind of dragon capable of creating mist? Was that a thing? And are midst and mist in any way etomologically related? In fact, with careful research, even the most unlearned apple could arrive at the conclusion that no, no they were not. And was it etomology or entomology? I always confuse the two. Or was it endocrinology? Could the Avatar of Vecna hold the key to these mysteries? Mayhaps.

    (Is mayhaps a word? Unlikely.)

    Lo, though the Dragon in our midst, capable of generating mist, held many treasures in his lair, truly, only the Vecnan Avatar was the keykeeper. But there were like five different faces and I'm pretty sure that one of them was Sting, and I'm not talking about the guy who sings Desert Rose, which is a kind of flower that appreciates a good mist in its midst. It was the other kind of Sting, the one who wrestles and wears the face makeup.

    This is getting kind of rambly. Mainly, the Avatar guy saw his plans all come to fruition as the fruits petitioned one another for the execution of a rotten fruit among them. And then other stuff happened along the way.



    A narration by Askthepizzaguy

    copyright 2014 Pied-pie-per Enterprises. All rights reserved.
    Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 2014-12-22 at 09:22 AM.

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