Werewolf Classic XVIII - Resurrection

[Fleeing Coward]

Technically, the Seer claiming and revealing their scry might be good if Sapo is a wolf, I suppose. Not much good, but still. That said... Yeah. IF's definitely pushing it hard and there isn't nearly as much reason to think that that's the case as they're saying.

If Sapo's a wolf and the seer has contacted them, the right thing to do is still for them to not reveal it publicly actually since revealing that information in public is just giving the wolves one more target to tag on to the end of their to kill list after picking off the seer.

[Lady Serpentine]

If Sapo's a wolf and the seer has contacted them, the right thing to do is still for them to not reveal it publicly actually since revealing that information in public is just giving the wolves one more target to tag on to the end of their to kill list after picking off the seer.

But it doesn't really matter if they kill that specific villager first, no? So it's essentially a null if Sapo were a wolf, potentially with marginal benefits to us. Though as we have a Fool, hard to say. (However, this is not to say that the Seer should claim. They shouldn't.)

[Tris]

How, about Eldritch Knight? You were the one who voted sapho first. What do you think of the counter arguments?

[Fleeing Coward]

But it doesn't really matter if they kill that specific villager first, no? So it's essentially a null if Sapo were a wolf, potentially with marginal benefits to us. Though as we have a Fool, hard to say. (However, this is not to say that the Seer should claim. They shouldn't.)

If Sapo's a wolf, there's going to be a counterclaim from an actual mason today at which point we lynch Sapo. When that happens, the seer can pass on that information to the masons without letting the wolves know so there should be 0 reason for them to make anything public.

[Lady Serpentine]

If Sapo's a wolf, there's going to be a counterclaim from an actual mason today at which point we lynch Sapo. When that happens, the seer can pass on that information to the masons without letting the wolves know so there should be 0 reason for them to make anything public.

Ahh. Right. I was assuming that if this hadn't gotten the masons to stir nothing was, I suppose, though I'd not meant to, but you make a good point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Sapo's a wolf, there's going to be a counterclaim from an actual mason today at which point we lynch Sapo.

At which point we lynch the counterclaimant.

The odds of wolf opportunism just spiked considerably considering the tension levels / paranoia. I'm not considering any counterclaims that happen too close to end of round.

If Sapo's a wolf, there is no longer any +EV to out the actual masons. Actual seer/fool are toast for claiming to him, they can breadcrumb their findings in their posts and we'll look for them if they die.

Odds of a wolf counterclaim to Sapo's claim are high because it can cause that mislynch, particularly if the counter happens near EOD today. In the exceedingly unlikely circumstance, the claim can happen Start Of Day Three. That leaves plenty of time for network reaction/counterreaction and no hasty lynch.

If I were somehow in the position of being a mason who just woke up from a nap, I sit tight and don't claim at all for several rounds, and hide. There's nothing to be gained in Universe A (Sapo village) or Universe B (Sapo wolf) by EITHER seer/fool pair or masonry counterclaim by village.

It only helps the wolves in both universes, and in the worst case scenario, it doesn't protect any information or the seer pair to have anyone come forward. In universe B, the hidden masons are all that's left of the village powers for all intents/purposes, and Universe B is danged unlikely anyhow.

[Fleeing Coward]

If Sapo is mason, wolves have 0 incentive to counterclaim. With no baner, they can kill him without fear. I don't see why they would sacrifice one of their own for no good reason.
If Sapo is wolf, masons have to counterclaim. You don't let a wolf just live and potentially cause even more damage because everyone thinks they're mason.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Sapo is mason, wolves have 0 incentive to counterclaim. With no baner, they can kill him without fear. I don't see why they would sacrifice one of their own for no good reason. If Sapo is wolf, masons have to counterclaim. You don't let a wolf just live and potentially cause even more damage because everyone thinks they're mason.

Blah. If there's one player I know can arrive on the same page as me, it's you. You know I'm not talking out of my butt. You've seen my weird brain in action before. It's not very concise but it is not a silly banana.

I'm going to have to give it a rest tonight, though. I have work in the morning and I've been thinking way too much about this game and we're mostly talking in circles now, just like day one.

What needs to happen is more discussion of suspects, and less werewolf theory.

We can debate theory post-game. For now let's just agree to disagree and find guilty people.

[Fleeing Coward]

Whether masons should claim in case of Sapowolf can't wait until end of game though. There's always the chance of an inattentive seer deciding to contact Sapo tonight if there's no counterclaim and that's not something that we can risk however unlikely it may be.
EOD claims should be treated differently of course but any relatively timely mason counterclaim has to be taken seriously.

Switching to Castaras for now since she's made it obvious she's not going to be contributing anything to this game and I'm assuming from Sapo's post that what IF did was done with their knowledge for now.

[Lady Serpentine]

Switching to Castaras for now since she's made it obvious she's not going to be contributing anything to this game and I'm assuming from Sapo's post that what IF did was done with their knowledge for now.

...*blinks* What is it people have against Cas this game? D1 it was lynching over RP and now... Apparently checking in saying you're busy and then providing opinions/thoughts/suspicion-check places is a sign you won't be contributing? Not trying to defend her as such but it does bug me that this is twice in a row now that people have been voting for her on flimsy grounds.

As for that... I doubt it? A Sapo/IF Mason team (and they wouldn't risk open collaboration with their power roles) would know better than to do something like that in public, where it would potentially out them. I can see it being a tactic by Villager!IF on the assumption that we have Mason!Sapo; trying to see who would be on that to try to lure out wolves. But I doubt that they were working together; I read it as 'it's not going to work so you might as well do something more productive'.

Which might be read as a bit arrogant/presumptuous, but all of us get that way at times. *shrugs*

[Fleeing Coward]

Give me logic for a better target then. I know it's kind of heartless but coursework due next week means she's not going to have much for this. I'm viewing this as giving her extra time to do the important stuff if that makes you feel better

I'm calling it as I see it. Sapo asked IF to stop pushing but didn't try to vote for him so he probably at least thinks IF is safe so I moved my vote off him.

[Lady Serpentine]

Give me logic for a better target then. I know it's kind of heartless but coursework due next week means she's not going to have much for this. I'm viewing this as giving her extra time to do the important stuff if that makes you feel better

Shadow, perhaps? He was pushing the bandwagon on her Day 1 fairly hard, and that was a pretty flimsy one. Admittedly, it was Day 1, so most of them are flimsy, but that would make a good screen to hide behind if he got called on it, and he's smart enough to exploit it. (It was also one I dislike on personal grounds since I don't think that RP should be a factor in voting, generally, though that's not really 'logic' as such.)

He's also been trying to generate a lot of noise and confusion; Sapo said earlier they were reminded of a fake-tantrum from another game, to be specific. Of course, on the other hand, that might just be Shadow; he's often contentious, as Fears proved.

I'm calling it as I see it. Sapo asked IF to stop pushing but didn't try to vote for him so he probably at least thinks IF is safe so I moved my vote off him.

I agree with you that Sapo probably doesn't think that IF is terribly suspicious right now, though that could be unwillingness to come across as being overly defensive by trying to redirect the voting back at him; I'm just saying I doubt they're working together. Of course, you could be right, too - hard to say. I'm simply presenting an alternate option and saying why I think it's likely.

[B-Man]

Here's a quick morning tally:

Internet Flea
Deathslayer7
Count Dingdong
Askthepizzaguy
Total: 3 Votes

Saposhiente
Eldritch Knight
Internet Flea
Total: 2 Votes

Castaras
Shadow
Fleeing Coward
Total: 2 Votes

Shadow
Castaras
C'nor
Total: 1 Votes

Eldritch Knight
Tanar Aerdoth
Total: 1 Votes


No Vote
Alarra
AvatarVecna
Castaras
Duck999
Ego Slayer
firedaemon33
Haruki-kun
Legato Endless
Rain Dragon
reaverb
Saposhiente
Snerk
TFT
ThePhantom
Total: 14 Votes

Auto-Lynch
AvatarVecna
Ego Slayer
Rain Dragon
Total: 3

I have a habit of showing the order of who voted first in the list.

RE Auto-Lynches: If the auto-lynches suspects do not vote in Day 2, I'll send out the PM during the night to the auto-lynch replacements and announce who's replacing who. It will be on a first-come first-served order.

[Lady Serpentine]

You - or someone - may wish to poke Rain Dragon via PM; he may have forgotten to follow the thread or the like, and I know he's usually good about being active if he's informed. (I would, but I have to head off now and won't be on for... 14-15 hours most likely?) , and I wish to ensure that he gets a fair shot at the poke reaching him in a timely fashion.)

[AvatarVecna]

I say No lynch for now.

[Alarra]

AvatarVecna because while a no lynch was a valid idea for day 1, continuing to do so is giving the wolves complete control over the deaths. Also, because none of the current targets feel right to me and I don't really have any good reads on anyone yet. And I can't fathom that the masons wouldn't have counterclaimed by now, so I'm going to throw my hat onto the group saying lynching Sapo is a wrong move.

[AvatarVecna]

AvatarVecna because while a no lynch was a valid idea for day 1, continuing to do so is giving the wolves complete control over the deaths. Also, because none of the current targets feel right to me and I don't really have any good reads on anyone yet. And I can't fathom that the masons wouldn't have counterclaimed by now, so I'm going to throw my hat onto the group saying lynching Sapo is a wrong move.

I understand the thought process supporting your vote, and I agree that my "No Lynch" vote is definitely suspicious enough to warrant counter-voting for me. In my defense, I'm casting a "No Lynch" vote for a number of semi-related reasons:

1) Due to RL issues, I haven't been keeping up with this thread very well; my focus, time, and energy have been needed for more overall important activities like securing a job, changing colleges, and convincing my significant other than I'm actually changing for the better this time, instead of just saying it and changing nothing...again.

2) Due to this inactivity, I have been placed on the auto-lynch list, prompting me to post something the second I saw it; if I don't post something relevant soon, whether a vote, an analysis, or something else, I'm going to get auto-lynched, and this game appears to have much more interest...and be much more interesting...than the others I've taken part in.

3) Seeing as I have to prepare for work this morning, I doubt I have enough time to thoroughly analyze what's happened so far in-thread. Seeing as I will definitely have time to read through and analyze the thread later tonight, I didn't see any particular need to vote for a specific person at this time: a cursory scroll through the thread's archives revealed nothing incredibly suspicious, leaving me with no clues, hunches, or gut feelings upon which to act. Without a more thorough analysis of what's happened so far, I can't in good faith vote for someone I have no in-game reason to suspect.

4) With roughly 30 hours left before the end of the day phase, there's plenty of time for analysis later tonight; combined with how often people are posting in this thread, it seems likely that someone will post something suspicious enough to warrant voting for them by tonight or tomorrow morning.

Taking these things into account, I placed a temporary "No Lynch" vote, with the intention of going back tonight and more thoroughly analyzing the thread. In fairness, I didn't realize at the time the significant difference between voting "No Vote" and voting "No Lynch": namely, I understand the need to lynch someone during this day phase, but I have no wish at this time to vote for someone, since I don't have anything in the way of evidence, suspicions, or even vague gut feelings. The difference is obvious in hindsight, so I'll now change my vote accordingly.

No Vote, for now...

[Haruki-kun]

AvatarVecna, as well. Sorry, that explanation didn't convince me.

[Internet Flea]

IF, it looks like you're not going to get any traction on this. Time to move on.

Bah, fine. Eldritch Knight for making two highly wolfy plays in two days.

Lousy analysts ruining my gambits, grumble grumble.

[Shadow]

The odds of wolf opportunism just spiked considerably considering the tension levels / paranoia. I'm not considering any counterclaims that happen too close to end of round.
<snip>
Odds of a wolf counterclaim to Sapo's claim are high because it can cause that mislynch,

The odds of a wolf counterclaim are non-existent unless Sapo is also a wolf.
I'm assuming that everyone got that wonderful PM, because if I got one as a villager then everyone else got one as well. If a counterclaim comes, then it needs to come with MY codeword to prove its validity.
There, problem solved. No counterclaim will come, and if it does I can tell you if it's true or not.

Spoiler: explanation

Show

I got a PM asking how that made any sense, so I'll explain it.
If each of us got a PM with a codeword, (and I have to assume that if I did as a villager then we all did), then any counterclaim can be made with the codeword sent to ME as verification. Only the masons would have access to that word.
So the only counterclaim that can come would be from someone on the same team as Sapo.
No counterclaim came yesterday, when one would expect it to come to possibly prevent people from sending roles to a wolf. Therefore, Sapo is almost assuredly a mason, as claimed.
So now, with the need to provide information that only the masons would have, no wolf can possibly counterclaim and expect it to work.
The only exception to this is if I were myself a wolf, and if that were true then I wouldn't be proposing this, would I? Unless Sapo and I were both wolves, but if that were true then you guys are royally screwed anyway.
So stop worrying about Sapo being a wolf and focus on more pertinent matters.

Until a counterclaim comes (which is almost assuredly not going to happen), strop trying to lynch the damned mason. What, are you guys all new?
I see a whole bunch of so-called "veterans" voting to lynch a proclaimed and undisputed mason. Every single person that has voted for Sapo is, at this moment, on the top of my list, directly under a microscope for the rest of the game.
And that isn't a place that you want to be.

Shadow, perhaps? He was pushing the bandwagon on her Day 1 fairly hard,

Yeah, I was, if explaining my reasoning and flat out saying that said reasoning wasn't strong, but merely better than nothing is considered "pushing" things.
Nice try, but you're being deceitful and misleading. Guess what that tells me, C'nor?

[Snerk]

AvatarVecna as that post strikes me somewhat as a scum saying look at me I'm so pro-town I'm not even voting for someone on d2. D2 is a definite lynch day.

[Tris]

AvatarVecna as that post strikes me somewhat as a scum saying look at me I'm so pro-town I'm not even voting for someone on d2. D2 is a definite lynch day.

I disagree. The reason he gave for not voting anyone was being busy. He was not saying that we shouldn't lynch today.

[Snerk]

I disagree. The reason he gave for not voting anyone was being busy. He was not saying that we shouldn't lynch today.

Fair point, though only after he was called out by Alarra. And then a very elaborate explanation of why. It's not much to go on, but it smells somewhat wolfy to me.

[Tris]

Fair point, though only after he was called out by Alarra. And then a very elaborate explanation of why. It's not much to go on, but it smells somewhat wolfy to me.

I can see your point. I think I'll reserve judgment on him for now.

[Legato Endless]

I disagree. The reason he gave for not voting anyone was being busy. He was not saying that we shouldn't lynch today.

Fair point, though only after he was called out by Alarra. And then a very elaborate explanation of why. It's not much to go on, but it smells somewhat wolfy to me.

These also aren't mutually exclusive. I fully believe Vecna's explanation for why he's busy. However, that doesn't mean he might not want another no lynch to occur anyway.

On a different note,

Eldritch Knight

[Shadow]

EK is known to me for his exceedingly convoluted plans to bring about some bizarre outcome which only he knows. Things that may make me certain that someone else is a wolf only make me think that EK is being EK.
I'm not against this wagon by any means, but I'm also not sure yet that he isn't just pulling an EK.
It's the people that followed his line of thinking which rub me the wrong way.

[Duck999]

Shadow, your post about the codeword doesn't make sense to me even with the explanation. A counterclaim would not have to come with the codeword. If Sapo isn't a mason, which I believe she is, a counterclaimant wouldn't have the codeword sent to you, and the codeword would be nullified due to us not knowing if those with the codeword were fake masons or the real masons. The codeword will do nothing in the case of counterclaims. If it will do something, please explain it to me.

On a different note, I don't know who to vote for yet, so I will put a hold on voting for now. I assure you I will vote later.
I feel like AvatarVecna has a good reason for not being able to keep up. The biggest pushes I see are on people who voted for Sapo. Can you explain why you thought she was not a mason despite the lack of counterclaims?

[Shadow]

Shadow, your post about the codeword doesn't make sense to me even with the explanation. A counterclaim would not have to come with the codeword. If Sapo isn't a mason, which I believe she is, a counterclaimant wouldn't have the codeword sent to you, and the codeword would be nullified due to us not knowing if those with the codeword were fake masons or the real masons. The codeword will do nothing in the case of counterclaims. If it will do something, please explain it to me.

Situations:
A) Sapo is a mason. Extremely likely, for the reasons listed.
-1a) No mason counterclaim will come.
-2a) No wolf counterclaim will come, because they don't have the right word.

B) Sapo is a wolf. Extremely unlikely, as no counterclaim came yesterday, when it would have traded a mason for a wolf (which is a good trade).
-1b) A mason counterclaim comes. We lynch them because they don't have the right word. Sapo dies next. Same trade, mason for wolf, only this came a day late and a dollar short, but at least it happened.
-2b) A wolf counterclaim (which would have the proper word) only exposes a second wolf when Sapo is revealed, or vice verse. If they had the right word, they are on Sapo's team. No wolf counterclaim will come. It risks too much for zero payoff. But no wolf would make that counterclaim if they had a plant in the network, so this one is merely included for the sake of completeness.
[edit] -3b: A wolf counterclaims and has the word. You lynch ME to see If I am a wolf. If I am not, both Sapo and the counterclaimant are lynched next. This will also not happen, because it trades a VILLAGER for two wolves.

There is zero problem with this redundant plan. If anyone has already role claimed, 2b night be a problem (and ensures you would lynch me for no gain), but that one would NEVER happen and only further solidifies why a mason needs to step forward right now if Sapo isn't telling the truth, which we all know that she is.

edit2:
I'm trying to move the topic of conversation to something more productive.
So far, this wonderful plan that I was against from the onset has done nothing but nearly monopolize the discussion with the only effect being to apparently consider lynching an undisputed mason claim.
Let's move on, people.

[reaverb]

The main thing I feel like doing today is pressuring lurkers, but I guess they might be auto-lynched/replaced at the end of the Day?

Lynch: ThePhantom

For having a more active/meta lurking style.

@Phantom/Ego Slayer/Rain Dragon:
What are your top 3 wolfreads and why are they your top 3 wolfreads?

[Duck999]

Should someone poke those who will be autolynched?