Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)

[Eloel]

Given my recent information and how to trust it, I am in favor of the 1/3 split.

[Tris]

So, what is your result?

[Eloel]

So, what is your result?

Telling it one way or another is not going to give any perspective to anyone, given that I have a 50/50 chance of being villainous from the previous encounter.

[Logic]

Telling it one way or another is not going to give any perspective to anyone, given that I have a 50/50 chance of being villainous from the previous encounter.

However, concealing the result is more likely to cast you in a negative light than an answer no one can verify.

EDIT: Tanar said it better than I did below:

This is false. It will rules out certain possibilities. A result of loyal tells us that if you are loyal, so is Sir Troll. A result of Minion tells us that at least one of you is a Minion. There's no reason not to give this piece of information.

[Tris]

Telling it one way or another is not going to give any perspective to anyone, given that I have a 50/50 chance of being villainous from the previous encounter.

This is false. It will rules out certain possibilities. A result of loyal tells us that if you are loyal, so is Sir Troll. A result of Minion tells us that at least one of you is a Minion. There's no reason not to give this piece of information.

[Duck999]

Telling it one way or another is not going to give any perspective to anyone, given that I have a 50/50 chance of being villainous from the previous encounter.

If there is no advantage to sharing, and no draw back to sharing, why couldn't you have just answered?
This makes me suspicious.

[jojolagger]

This is false. It will rules out certain possibilities. A result of loyal tells us that if you are loyal, so is Sir Troll. A result of Minion tells us that at least one of you is a Minion. There's no reason not to give this piece of information.

Actually no. Oberon ruins that.
He could be loyal and attempting to trick minions into thinking he's Oberon, which would mean a loyal call on an unloyal knight or an unloyal call on a loyal knight.
A loyal Knight impersonating Oberon is actually a pretty cool trick, if you can make it work and get them to rely on you at a critical juncture.

Utter Chaos.

[Tris]

Actually no. Oberon ruins that.
He could be loyal and attempting to trick minions into thinking he's Oberon, which would mean a loyal call on an unloyal knight or an unloyal call on a loyal knight.
A loyal Knight impersonating Oberon is actually a pretty cool trick, if you can make it work and get them to rely on you at a critical juncture.

Utter Chaos.

I would advise against that since it gives the loyals invalid information, so the cost is greater than the potential reward. Loyals should simply tell the truth. And anyway, there's nothing to lose by giving the results here.

[Eloel]

I have been told that Sir Troll is not innocent. But again, I could be giving that away to make sure you trust me, or I could be lying to the same effect. No value here.

[Tris]

Ok, I would be fine with jojo's previously proposed team.

[jojolagger]

I would advise against that since it gives the loyals invalid information, so the cost is greater than the potential reward. Loyals should simply tell the truth. And anyway, there's nothing to lose by giving the results here.

But as due to the 50%(66.667% for me) chance he's a minion, the information to the loyal's is already more or less invalid. Providing 'useful' invalid information to the minions may actually be the best option. (Specifically due to the mission 1 win mission 2 double fail situation. Normally you're right, but an unusual opportunity existed here)

I have been told that Sir Troll is not innocent. But again, I could be giving that away to make sure you trust me, or I could be lying to the same effect. No value here.

33.333% odds Troll is a minion. 66.667% odds you are a minion. Sorry man, I can't trust you on this. (My perspective's odds of course.)

Ok, I would be fine with jojo's previously proposed team.

I think that brings us to 3 confirmed support votes.
For any wondering, that team is Sir Myles (Me), Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter), Sir Tristram (Tanar Aerdoth), and Sir Fidious (Logic).
Not locking it in quite yet because I'd like to see some more reactions to the suggestion and Eloel's claim.


Sir Axl. Based on Eonas's strange voting and Eloel's likely lie, I suspect you are the other loyal in Bag One.

[Rofltrollcopter]

I have been told that Sir Troll is not innocent.

Eloel is a Minion. I'll even go a step further and label him as Oberon.

The fact that he tried to justify hiding information from the table more then speaks for itself.

[Logic]

Eloel is a Minion. I'll even go a step further and label him as Oberon.

The fact that he tried to justify hiding information from the table more then speaks for itself.

My current theory is that Eonas, Lex-Kat and Eloel are minions.

[Eonas]

Actually no. Oberon ruins that.
He could be loyal and attempting to trick minions into thinking he's Oberon, which would mean a loyal call on an unloyal knight or an unloyal call on a loyal knight.
A loyal Knight impersonating Oberon is actually a pretty cool trick, if you can make it work and get them to rely on you at a critical juncture.

Utter Chaos.

Wait, why were you defending Eloel when as you yourself have since said, he's probably a Minion from your perspective? You're saying, in essence, "Eloel's possibly a Knight because he looks too much like Oberon". When, again, from your perspective, he's probably not a Knight, and when it's quite possible that there was an Oberon on Quest 2. From your perspective, it shouldn't really be Utter Chaos at all. but actually quite simple.

EDIT: Okay, I get the Eonas-vote of no-confidence (given that I twice was one of the only people to do a perfectly reasonable thing), but why Lex-Kat, Logic? What's she done?

[jojolagger]

Not quite sure about Lex, but minion guesses by Logic seem about right to me. There are 4 minions total though, so you're missing one.

Wait, why were you defending Eloel when as you yourself have since said, he's probably a Minion from your perspective? You're saying, in essence, "Eloel's possibly a Knight because he looks too much like Oberon". When, again, from your perspective, he's probably not a Knight, and when it's quite possible that there was an Oberon on Quest 2. From your perspective, it shouldn't really be Utter Chaos at all. but actually quite simple.

Not defending him, warning Tanar about an assumption he had made that wasn't necessarily true given the unusual situation. Was pointing out how nothing the likely minion said could be trusted. Utter chaos was in regards to there always being possible confusion and higher level mindgames. Now off with you minion.

Troll, others, thoughts on the team?

EDIT:Okay, believe you about lex now. All I needed to see.

[Logic]

Not quite sure about Lex, but minion guesses by Logic seem about right to me. There are 4 minions total though, so you're missing one.


Not defending him, warning Tanar about an assumption he had made that wasn't necessarily true given the unusual situation. Was pointing out how nothing the likely minion said could be trusted. Utter chaos was in regards to there always being possible confusion and higher level mindgames. Now off with you minion.

Troll, others, thoughts on the team?

EDIT:Okay, believe you about lex now. All I needed to see.

I can't pin down Duck vs Legato. But, I will say this: if Duck is Evil, Legato has probably figured him out already (like he does most games of werewolf, and the last Avalon game.)

Try you, Troll, Tristram, and me. That's what I feel most comfortable with.

And what was it you needed to see?

[jojolagger]

Eonas defending Lex made Lex sufficiently suspicious for me to trust claims of them being a minion.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Eh, right now I'll go with it. I'm fairly confident that we have enough information to salvage a loss from mission 3 if worse comes to worst.

@Logic and Jojo
Can you explain your case agianst Lex-Kat? There's the fact that she up-voted a failing mission, but I don't see what other evidence we have at this point.

[Duck999]

I can't pin down Duck vs Legato. But, I will say this: if Duck is Evil, Legato has probably figured him out already (like he does most games of werewolf, and the last Avalon game.)

Imagine it like this:
My brain is a computer. Legato has the password. Maybe if I added some randomness of symbols and stuff he wouldn't read my mind so often.

[Eloel]

Eloel is a Minion. I'll even go a step further and label him as Oberon.

The fact that he tried to justify hiding information from the table more then speaks for itself.

I have not been justifying but making sure I don't muddy the water with needless commentary. As was expected, you are blaming me for letting you out in the open. As was not expected, there are people who agree with you.

I have said what I would, and have been given the information in private. I would be happier if it could have been public, but alas, such is the rules of the game. I cannot justify you being a minion based on anything, since it was not a logical conclusion but a magical one, so that will have to rely on trust of others.

Me revealing you as a minion only served to not have one of us on the team when the other is on - for obvious reasons. If I was a minion and you were not as you claimed, why would I play those odds?

[Logic]

Eh, right now I'll go with it. I'm fairly confident that we have enough information to salvage a loss from mission 3 if worse comes to worst.

@Logic and Jojo
Can you explain your case agianst Lex-Kat? There's the fact that she up-voted a failing mission, but I don't see what other evidence we have at this point.

Well, I looked at the 5 (besides myself) that did not go on the mission, and ordered everyone into most likely loyal to least likely loyal. You and Tristram were pinging heavily loyal. The other 3 (lex, Legato and Duck) did not give me much to go on, as they haven't been posting as much as most of the rest of us, but this post:

All I'll say in my defense is that my vote for Yay! showed us that there were at least 2 villains on that team, and at least one of them had to be on the first team as well. I have doubts that all three of them are disloyal knights.

I have no problem at all with trusting rofltrollcoptor, for the moment. Hope you are right.

makes me doubt Lex. It is stating the obvious as a defense, which doesn't give us much information beyond "I approved the team that found us two minions!"

[Tris]

I have not been justifying but making sure I don't muddy the water with needless commentary. As was expected, you are blaming me for letting you out in the open. As was not expected, there are people who agree with you.

I have said what I would, and have been given the information in private. I would be happier if it could have been public, but alas, such is the rules of the game. I cannot justify you being a minion based on anything, since it was not a logical conclusion but a magical one, so that will have to rely on trust of others.
Me revealing you as a minion only served to not have one of us on the team when the other is on - for obvious reasons. If I was a minion and you were not as you claimed, why would I play those odds?

Whaaaat?

Elaborate please. Especially on the bolded.

[jojolagger]

@Logic and Jojo
Can you explain your case agianst Lex-Kat? There's the fact that she up-voted a failing mission, but I don't see what other evidence we have at this point.

Someone I kindof trust (Logic) thinks she's a minion, and someone I distinctly don't trust (Eonas) argued against her being a minion.
Originally no real idea, but Eonas' support makes me suspect Logic is right.

Family dinner soon, then I'll lock in the suggested team afterwards.

[Rofltrollcopter]

@Eonas, would you mind explaining your reason for the double downvotes?

[Eloel]

Whaaaat?

Elaborate please. Especially on the bolded.

I didn't come to the conclusion that Troll was a minion by logical means, but by means of using the Lady of the Lake power.

[Tris]

Oh, I misread your result!

[Duck999]

I believe someone said that means we should put neither on the mission.

Found it: Tanar said that one of the two of you would be a minion then.
So I then make the deduction that neither of you should go on the mission. Too high chances of being minion. Especially Eloel who was on the failing mission, giving him a 50% chance of being a minion, and got a result of minion, giving a separate 50% chance.

[Logic]

I believe someone said that means we should put neither on the mission.

Found it: Tanar said that one of the two of you would be a minion then.
So I then make the deduction that neither of you should go on the mission. Too high chances of being minion. Especially Eloel who was on the failing mission, giving him a 50% chance of being a minion, and got a result of minion, giving a separate 50% chance.

Duck, you just tipped the balance of "likely good" heavily in your favor. (As far as I am concerned.)

[Eloel]

If you remove us as 1 minion and 1 loyal, one of the following must be true:

1- Troll is a minion

5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyal

That's a 20% chance of loyal-only mission, no matter how you cut it.

2- I am a minion

5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyals and 1 non-loyal

On a split of 3/1, this gives 7% chance. On a split of 2/2, this gives 10% chance.

--
On the other hand, if you do not remove us and do pick one (and only one) of us:
1- Troll is a minion
a- You pick Troll
0% chance
b- You pick me
5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyals
With everyone else coming from out of mission, 40% chance.

2- I am a minion
a- You pick me
0% chance
b- You pick Troll
5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyal and 1 non-loyal.
Best pick is a split of 2/1 here, which gives 20% chance.


Either way, it's more mathematically sound to pick one of us (either one of us) than to not do so.

[Rofltrollcopter]

I believe someone said that means we should put neither on the mission.

Found it: Tanar said that one of the two of you would be a minion then.
So I then make the deduction that neither of you should go on the mission. Too high chances of being minion. Especially Eloel who was on the failing mission, giving him a 50% chance of being a minion, and got a result of minion, giving a separate 50% chance.

um, what?

The guy practically outed himself. He had to be cajoled by two players into telling the Lady of the Lake result. There is absolutely, positively no world where a loyalist hides Lady information from the table.

Duck, you just tipped the balance of "likely good" heavily in your favor. (As far as I am concerned.)

I would strongly encourage you to rethink this. Especially in light of his earlier post

If there is no advantage to sharing, and no draw back to sharing, why couldn't you have just answered?
This makes me suspicious.