Middle Earth WW: The Two Towers

[Ramsus]

Well, Sauron's dead. Guess we can all go home now.

[Fleeing Coward]

Oh well, hate last minute bandwagons when I'm asleep, don't know why AV didn't just claim.

[Elenna]

Well...okay then.

I kind of assumed the first person to reach the tie vote would die? Oh well.

[AvatarVecna]

By the time it occurred to me to claim, it was about 20 minutes til end of day, so it wouldn't have changed anything.

[Legato Endless]

Wait so is it alpha as in chooses the wolf team, or alpha as in scried as a villager, or both?

If this is following in the footsteps of the first LOTR game, then yes, Luizeu did choose his team.

Well, Sauron's dead. Guess we can all go home now.

Yep. I'm sure Saruman isn't doing anything horrible in the Shire. Bad guy dies, story's over. Simple.

Oh well, hate last minute bandwagons when I'm asleep, don't know why AV didn't just claim.

[Elenna]

Yep. I'm sure Saruman isn't doing anything horrible in the Shire. Bad guy dies, story's over. Simple.

Clearly he is trying to distract us from his evil deeds! Lynch him!

[Ramsus]

That actually would have made for a pretty entertaining story. Big bad is dead. Lieutenant Bad is left stuck in this position of doing evil stuff no longer because he has to or necessarily even particularly wants to but because he will completely lose control of the orcs entirely otherwise and all the good guys no longer have a clear goal.

[Indarra]

If Sauron actually chooses his team, wouldn't that mean that the most dangerous players are most likely wolves/did someone call them nazgul?

[Elenna]

Not necessarily. He probably picked some inexperienced players because he thought we'd think that. Or maybe he picked experienced players because of what I just said...or maybe he picked players good at hiding in the background...or maybe not...
Basically, there's no way to know for sure.

Also, we don't know that the alpha role still works that way. Although it would be rather unfaithful to the theme if Sauron scried as villager, since the Silmarillion states that After the fall of Numenor Sauron could no longer take a form that did not look evil.

And we don't know for sure that the wolves are called nazgul, although it was a reasonable guess on Xihirli's part. (Unless of course it wasn't a guess...)

[Legato Endless]

If Sauron actually chooses his team, wouldn't that mean that the most dangerous players are most likely wolves/did someone call them nazgul?

In practice, choosing a group of vets is the easiest pattern to sniff out. The village can just sift through and murdered them. A good team is frequently based on a rational that is difficult to discern even once you know everyone involved.

Also experience can be overrated. One attractive prospect here, would be to pick a newcomer, as their lack of established style would hopefully make them more inscrutable.

[Zar Peter]

Also, no one likes to kill newcomers on the first two or three days.

By the way, I just wanted to share a PM I got from Luizeu when I was playing Snooker and couldn't react (which was propably for the best):

I've exchanged some messages with Thematthew and I have reason to believe that we should leave him off the hook.
I wanted to be alive as well só we are converging on AvatarVecna

Just in case someone casts Avada Kadavra on me in the night. Oh wait, that's a whole other story. Also, I want to add that this is not a vote to lynch Thematthew tomorrow, just to look a bit closer at him. It could easily be a distraction from Luizeu.

[Elenna]

Wait, I forgot, Luizeu called the bad guys orcs. So I guess they're orcs then.

[Thematthew]

I'm bringing this up here because I think the wolves may have a bit of an interest in our current lynch situation, and I don't want them reading it and shifting votes to ensure one of us is lynched. As it stands I trust you a lot more than I trust AV, and I would hope there can be some trust from you. We're both sitting at 3 votes, with me at a soft 4 because of Malefactor, and AV is at 2 and garnering suspicion from quite a few people. I suggest we bury the hatchet, and both drop votes on him. I'm reasonably certain that at least some of the wagons will shift, and then we can have a bit more useful data from today.

This is the PM I sent Luizeu last night, which would explain him trying to reach out and touch people. I was just worried I was going to get lynched, and he seemed to be the one I could actually sway since he hadn't voted for me yet.

[Zar Peter]

This is the PM I sent Luizeu last night, which would explain him trying to reach out and touch people. I was just worried I was going to get lynched, and he seemed to be the one I could actually sway since he hadn't voted for me yet.

Thank you for sharing this, I don't really think that he wanted to save you because you're a wolf. I just wanted to share the information before it's too late. There's never too much information in Werewolf.

[Thematthew]

I agree, that's why I shared as well.

[Ramsus]

I also received the same PM, which was what prompted me to switch my vote.

[Xihirli]

This is the PM I sent Luizeu last night, which would explain him trying to reach out and touch people. I was just worried I was going to get lynched, and he seemed to be the one I could actually sway since he hadn't voted for me yet.

I didn't vote for you.

Also, as basically confirmed towns, you guys will probably be up for night-kill soon. The Baner should get one of you two.

[Elenna]

It's generally a bad idea to tell the Baner what to do. They should decide by themselves to keep the wolves guessing. Like what Murska did in MatA.

And sharing the PM may look townish, but I wouldn't say it makes them "basically confirmed town".

- - - Updated - - -

Unless you're talking about something else that I haven't noticed.

[Xihirli]

Why would they PM Luizeu instead of just using the QT?

[TFT]

Why would they PM Luizeu instead of just using the QT?

If they were wolves, why would they say they got the message from the QT instead of saying they got it via PM randomly?

Credibility by an actual post by the guy while also making it seem like they were town trying to be swayed.

That being said, I don't have a solid read on either of them, and this is just to get all the possibilities out there.

[Thematthew]

If you're that worried about it I can forward it and the response, but that only proves so much.

[Ramsus]

Yeah that proves nothing since you can just manufacture the whole thing without Luizeu's involvement at all. Which is why I didn't bother quoting mine. I was just backing up Zar Peter's story as "yeah, this is definitely a thing people got". Only means as much as you want it to mean really.

[Mythaos]

On the subject of PMs: It's entirely possible that all three of them are wolves and fabricated the whole thing. Not likely, but possible. So for now, at least, I'm going to set that aside and look at some interactions from yesterday.

Luizeu jumping on the Elenna bandwagon early on gives her some more points, I think. Eesh, I look like I'm just buddying all over the place with her. I'm reasonably sure she's not a wolf, though, so eh.

Xihirli's late vote on AV, however, doesn't look great. Neither does Ramsus or Thematthew, but Xihirli's reasoning looks the shakiest to me. Now, I don't know for sure if a wolf would use that logic or not, or if a XihirliWolf would, but Xihirli is my vote right now, with suspsicion on Ramsus and Thematthew.

[Ramsus]

Mythaos for trying to lynch people during the night.

[Elenna]

Is this night ending at noon or 6pm PST?

[Xihirli]

So I read as wolfish?

Xihirli, there was no reason for voting on you

Until now...

The lynch is the only power town has. Advocating that people just don't lynch is absurd. If I hadn't already voted on you I would vote now.
No lynch brings us nowhere closer to finding wolves. Lynching does. A chance of = number of wolves/25

When we were wolves together, Xihirli said for only the second most annoying^th time, we did vote on each other. But it was never like THIS. It was never particularly well-reasoned. It was more like...

Xihirli, for the new day one vote.

Let's see what comes out of this Xihirli

It was never more than a few sentences and there was never any reasoning at all, because we didn't ACTUALLY want to get the other person killed. Luizeu provided an okay-sorta-weak argument for me while bandwagons were still forming, an exorbitantly risky move that almost lost us the game immediately (and DID make us lose long-term when the Masons caught my lies) last time when Phantom DIDN'T provide a reason. It would have been incredibly risky and stupid to have done what Luizeu did if I were also a wolf/I WILL CALL THEM NAZGUL. I can't prove I'm not a wolf without dying (and I'd rather not), obviously, but I can tell you that if I were a nazgul I would have voted for Luizeu to save face just like he did to me in Murder at the Academy. Just out of spite, really.

[Murska]

Hey. I actually had to go back and check, but the previous version of this game was the one where I led the lynch on pizzaguy as the Alpha on the first day.

I'm on a roll here.


EDIT: Also, BROTHER NO!

[Logic]

Is this night ending at noon or 6pm PST?

I'll open day up at noon, assuming I have all the night actions in.

[Sangenkai]

So my nightmare of a travel experience is over (lots of layovers and redirected flights, ugh), but its cool to come in and see that the Day 2 lynch was very very eventful. If the Lovers are Town roles (and not just independents with just the win condition of surviving on their own), that kinda sucks we lost 2 Town; if they aren't, well who cares. :-P

What does the Alpha do in this game? I'm not as familiar with mafia games here. If its the kind of Alpha that appears to be Town to the detective/seer, then wow that is pretty awesome.

I desperately need sleep; however, the whole thing with Luizeu PMing certain people (or at least them claiming they were contacted by him) is interesting because its exactly the type of thing I've done before, in many cases: a) as scum about to be nailed trying to sway votes, b) as scum PRETENDING to have been contacted by a fellow scum in order to distance oneself, c) and as a villager legitly being contacted.

What I'm interested in is the number of people bringing up the PMs; it'd be a crazy ploy if they were all mafia running a gambit of boldness, just to make everyone second guess their coming out like this by the sheer audacity of it. Its more likely they are a) all Town telling the truth, and distantly b) most are Town, with a single gambit playing wolf trying to sneak in the middle of the claims or near the end. I don't know how conservatively people play here; in some places, mind games and fast and loose lying were the fun of the game so B would have been likely (or even an all mafia gambit). How are things around here? Casual and "I wanna survive" kind of slow meta-games (in which case I feel like all the Pm claimers are probably Town and should be watched but early game exploratory lynches should go out into more nebulous territory, aka quiet people)? Or "go big or go home" kind of wild ploys (in which case there's mafia amongst them, and they should be looked at harder)?

Anywho, absolutely random thoughts:
1. Xihirli flat out switched from Liuzeu to Avatar, even pointing out he was trying to save Liuzeu; that is as bold a mind-game mafia could ever play, so I feel like Xihirli is town. Or else is mafia with the biggest balls of steel, especially if it were at a point where the Liuzeu bandwagon seemed finalized.
2. I can stop randomly pointing at Elenna now that Liuzeu exchanged points with Elenna; its obviously not confirming anything but at least it makes more sense to put my attention elsewhere.
3. Just noticed Mythaos already mentioned pretty much everything I said above, though with a different conclusion about Xihirli. Neutral about him.

4. Looking at the relatively quiet but still semi-active people (which includes me), I'm curious about Lex-Cat and Visor and Zar Peter.
5. When did Murska and Fleeing Coward get on the Liuzeu bandwagon?

EDIT: oop, didn't realize it was still night.

[Elenna]

Ouch. Did you at least have fun at the destination?

I think we're allowed to post at night. I'll delete this post if the narrators say otherwise.

Given that the roles were called Frodo and Sam, I'm pretty sure they're town. (For anyone completely unfamiliar with LoTR, Frodo and Sam are two of the main protagonists.)

As I mentioned above, the Alpha being scried as a villager is inconsistent with LoTR canon. Doesn't mean it can't happen in this game, though. Anyways, it probably doesn't matter now.

BTW, Luizeu's name is spelled with the u before the i.

I'm neutral about Xihirli. I'm reasonably sure there were wolves on the AV bandwagon, but I haven't looked at who exactly is more suspicious yet.

Murska was voting on Luizeu from the start of the day. FC jumped on closer to end of day, presumably because he knew AV was town and didn't want to die.