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    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    OldWizardGuy

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    Default Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    HPoH is about to expose itself.
    Belkar ... may well be gone.
    A load of mid/high-level mortals seem likely to be recruited in the near future. More, at any rate, than V's tele-orb can handle. (I am assuming it has a numbers limit.)

    But, from commentary in No Cure for the Paladin Blues (NCftPB), Belkar is a member of the Order, Miko was not. Implication: the original members are still the focus and will remain so.

    The simplest way to reconcile these statements is that the northern priesthood will become the new allies of the order, as Azure city was previously. They will do ... what? I don't know.

    Some of you no doubt would be perfectly content to see Wrecan and Veldrina step in for Belkar and Durkon, respectively. And it would seem the obvious way to make the numbers add up. But I do not see the Giant going there. I'm just not sure where he is going.

    So, let the irresponsible speculation begin, and let it start here.
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    Flumph

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    Exclamation Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Belkar may not die, per se, but just have some effect causing him to "draw his last breath".

    oh well- all speculation!

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

    Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

    But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by necrochicken View Post
    Belkar may not die, per se, but just have some effect causing him to "draw his last breath".

    oh well- all speculation!
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    I would be very surprised if Belkar doesn't stay alive at least through most of this book. His storyline is too far from over to die now.

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    OldWizardGuy

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    ... and what makes you think that death is automatically the end of Belkar's story?
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Windscion View Post
    ... and what makes you think that death is automatically the end of Belkar's story?
    That's a pretty good point. Rich has hinted that Nale's role in the story isn't over, and that even if Thog is dead his role might be over, so maybe all three are going to hit it off in the afterlife and come back to raise hell

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Durkula's revelation isn't going to result in the Order going "ah, shucks" and moving on with their lives. There is going to be major conflict between Durkula and the Order, probably eventually resulting in Durkula getting staked. And hey, there's a whole bunch of high-level clerics around now! All it takes is for one of them to survive, and Durkon is back with the party within a day of Durkula's destruction.

    Belkar, meanwhile, is a high-level adventurer falling off a cliff. He's probably going to survive. Heck, if he just spends his airtime chugging healing potions, he can start working his way back up as soon as he hits the ground. Somebody mentioned the massive damage rule, but it's DC 15 and rangers and barbarians both have good fort saves. He pretty much can't miss.

    So, yeah, I figure at the end of this, Durkon and Belkar will be back, the northern priesthood will be sufficiently damaged that they can't offer much in the way of help, and Veldrina and Wrecan will either tag along until the end of the book or be obligated to return to elven lands for some reason or other.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by littlebum2002 View Post
    That's a pretty good point. Rich has hinted that Nale's role in the story isn't over, and that even if Thog is dead his role might be over, so maybe all three are going to hit it off in the afterlife and come back to raise hell
    I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over. I do recall him saying that Sabine's role in the story isn't over, though.
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    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by sabremeister View Post
    I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over. I do recall him saying that Sabine's role in the story isn't over, though.
    She could save Belkar...

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by sabremeister View Post
    I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over.
    The only thing I can remember like that is that he refused to answer whether Elan would have turned out like Nale if he was the one raised by Tarquin, saying it might give things away. But that might just have been referring to Elan's musings after Nale died.
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by grandpheonix View Post
    Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

    Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

    But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.
    Belkar has already been tossed overboard an airship TWICE on-panel by Durkula. Quite frankly I'd be shocked if he hadn't acquired some variety of feather fall/flying item while in gnome town. He may not necessarily be able to get back up to the Moot quickly, but there's NO WAY he's dead.

    Also, while it may not be concrete, in Snips Snails and Dragons Tails Roy stated that max fall damage was 20d6. Easily survivable for the Belkster if he chugs a pot before he hits. Tarquin certainly easily survived a fall from the airship at a pretty high altitude.
    Last edited by Olinser; 2015-08-21 at 11:45 PM.

    ALL HAIL THE GREAT RAK!!

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by grandpheonix View Post
    Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat.
    In D&D, there's plenty of reasons for Belkar to survive that fall.
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Olinser View Post
    Also, while it may not be concrete, in Snips Snails and Dragons Tails Roy stated that max fall damage was 20d6. Easily survivable for the Belkster if he chugs a pot before he hits. Tarquin certainly easily survived a fall from the airship at a pretty high altitude.
    20d6 is 20-120 damage. average 70.

    Belkar is (at least) level 15 with:
    11 levels rangers including first
    1 level barbarian
    3 unknown level
    CON unknown

    For 10 CON, that's 22-136HP, assuming his unknown levels are all barbarians (remove 4 max HP by ranger level).
    Average 79 if all unknown levels are barbarian ones (remove 2 max HP by ranger level).

    That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.
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    Pixie in the Playground
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quild View Post
    20d6 is 20-120
    that's 22-136HP
    That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.
    The point is that it's entirely possible for him to survive. It's also entirely possible for him to die. Rich can pick whatever he believes works best for his story, and it will be entirely believable (at least to the extent that D&D falling damage makes sense). I tend to think he'll live (though a save from V or the Mechane seems more likely surviving the fall).

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    Flumph

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    d20 Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by facw View Post
    . I tend to think he'll live (though a save from V or the Mechane seems more likely surviving the fall).
    Hmm...

    this would be deus ex machina, just a little.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quild View Post
    20d6 is 20-120 damage. average 70.

    Belkar is (at least) level 15 with:
    11 levels rangers including first
    1 level barbarian
    3 unknown level
    CON unknown

    For 10 CON, that's 22-136HP, assuming his unknown levels are all barbarians (remove 4 max HP by ranger level).
    Average 79 if all unknown levels are barbarian ones (remove 2 max HP by ranger level).

    That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.
    As a melee combatant, it would be suicidally foolish for Belkar not to arrange for a significantly better Con score than 10, even if that requires purchasing a Con-boosting magic item.

    For 14 Con, the range is 52-166 HP, or 52-154 with only one barbarian level. Those have averages of 109 and 103 respectively. 70 damage isn't pleasant, but it is easily survivable.

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    BarbarianGuy

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    All these HP calculations aside, it's entirely possible that Belkar only has around 100 HP if his roles have been crappy.

    We also don't know how much damage he's taken. Say, (again a slightly pessimistic view) that he had 120 HP. Well guess what, if he's taken over 20 damage then there's a chance when he takes 20d6 fall damage he'll die.

    Then there's the fortitude save for massive damage. This wouldn't be the first time someone in this comic was like, "Hey, I had enough HP for that, sweet!" then somehow remembers he has to make a fort save and rolls a 1.

    My vote goes to, "he's dead".

    Not, "he's DONE", per se. But dead.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by necrochicken View Post
    Hmm...

    this would be deus ex machina, just a little.
    That's why they call it the Mechane.
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Molan View Post
    All these HP calculations aside, it's entirely possible that Belkar only has around 100 HP if his roles have been crappy.
    The expected damage from 20d6 is 70. If he "only" has 100 HP, he's most likely to survive that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Molan View Post
    Then there's the fortitude save for massive damage. This wouldn't be the first time someone in this comic was like, "Hey, I had enough HP for that, sweet!" then somehow remembers he has to make a fort save and rolls a 1.
    Belkar has at least +11 to fort saves from his classes, and another +3 from his vest. Add the 1 from the die, and he can't get less than 15, which is the DC. He literally cannot fail the fort save.

    Quote Originally Posted by Molan View Post
    My vote goes to, "he's dead".

    Not, "he's DONE", per se. But dead.
    Depending on how damaged he is already and how the dice go, death from falling damage is certainly possible. But even the simplest thing he can do to try to survive results in survival being more likely. He's got better than even odds to survive; how much better depends on how clever he is.

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    Lightbulb Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by ti'esar View Post
    That's why they call it the Mechane.

    I had a feeling...

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by theNater View Post
    As a melee combatant, it would be suicidally foolish for Belkar not to arrange for a significantly better Con score than 10, even if that requires purchasing a Con-boosting magic item.

    For 14 Con, the range is 52-166 HP, or 52-154 with only one barbarian level. Those have averages of 109 and 103 respectively. 70 damage isn't pleasant, but it is easily survivable.
    I agree, even Belkar isn't idiotic enough to have a Con that low as a primary melee fighter.

    He also has Barbarian Rage, good for another +30 HP if he is level 15. If he pots up and then rages even with average HP values around 100 that puts him past 130, which is guaranteed survival.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    I wouldn't bet high on the CON modifier because it's Belkar. He's under-optimized (lol no WIS).

    But, I did out of curiosity some calculations on how Miko defeated the Order in #251 (based on Rich's explanation), I would say that Belkar took 5d6+1d10+57 damage(*) while level 12 (8+10d8+1d12 HP)

    That's a damage range of 63-97 (average 80) that drops him to -4.

    Belkar has 19-100 HP (average 59,5) without any CON modifier.
    A +1 modifier could be totally fine with this.


    (*)Assuming Miko has 12 paladin levels (total level 14 with 2 monks level)
    Assuming Miko has 12 CHA but not 14
    Assuming Miko has 16 STR
    Belkar took 3 unarmed strike (1d6+3)
    Belkar took 1 Katana attack (1d10+3)
    Belkar took 2 Wakizashi attacks (1d6+3)
    Belkar took 3 smite evil (13)



    Belkar surviving thanks of +30 HP from Rage however, is something I can totally bet on.
    Last edited by Quild; 2015-08-22 at 05:16 PM.
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quild View Post
    That's a damage range of 63-97 (average 80) that drops him to -4.
    I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by theNater View Post
    I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.
    But he's not at full health (the tussle with Durkula needs to be accounted for), and as remarkably stupid as Belkar would have to be to not have packed healing potions, well... Belkar has proven time and again that he can be remarkably stupid, especially when it comes to being prepared for things he hasn't already experienced. I actually think it might be more likely that he has something like a Ring of Feather Fall or something (since this guy has thrown him off the Mechane twice) than to have healing potions, since, while he's directly experienced Durkula mind controlling him and throwing him off high places, he has not experienced Durkula (or Durkon, for that matter) displaying the martial capacity to beat him one on one.

    I am a big fan of how these numbers are working out, though. If nothing else, there probably won't be any people complaining about the mechanics of Belkar's fall whether or not he survives. Everything else, of course, will be the usual source of strife. I would also laugh pretty hard if the Giant played around with all the people doing math to see Belkar's chances from a rules-legal perspective by saving him from the fall with something that pointedly disobeys the actual rules of the thing. Although maybe that would be a bit too repetitive, since Durkon basically did the same thing to destroy Leeky's animated trees (weather control thunder for sonic damage!) in order to rescue Vaarsuvius... Anyway, we'll see.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Enran View Post
    But he's not at full health (the tussle with Durkula needs to be accounted for), and as remarkably stupid as Belkar would have to be to not have packed healing potions, well... Belkar has proven time and again that he can be remarkably stupid, especially when it comes to being prepared for things he hasn't already experienced.
    Belkar has been known to carry potions since strip #8. And the party recently had an opportunity to acquire as many potions as they wanted, free of charge; if Belkar didn't think to grab a few to carry around, Roy would almost certainly have suggested it.

    But the point isn't that Belkar will drink potions and survive the fall. The point is that Belkar has an easy, straightforward way to survive the fall. This fall is not really a deadly scenario for him. The real question is how inconvenient it will be, which depends on how clever he is. If he is not clever at all, he drinks some potions, takes a bunch of damage, drinks any remaining potions, and has to climb a mountain while injured and devoid of potions. If he's slightly more clever, he picked up a ring of feather fall, and he climbs up the mountain in pretty good shape, with potions to spare. If he's even more clever, he's figured out a way to arrest his descent well before reaching the ground, and only has to climb part of the mountain. We'll see soon enough what the actual situation is, but "died from the fall" is not meaningfully likely. (Before somebody complains, yes, I know it's technically possible. But it's so easy for him to not die that it would be super weird if he did.)

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quild View Post
    I wouldn't bet high on the CON modifier because it's Belkar. He's under-optimized (lol no WIS).
    yes, but... He must have put the points somewhere!
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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Angel View Post
    yes, but... He must have put the points somewhere!
    Not if they rolled stats. He could just have a +1 mod in Strength and Dex, a -1 in Wis, and all other average rolls. Would be legal without rerolls, even under the most generous ruleset.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by grandpheonix View Post
    Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

    Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

    But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.
    Actually, a high-level character can easily survive the 20d6 fall damage. The Order is, like, what, level 14 or 15 by now? Belkar has barbarian levels. Especially if he rages, not even the maximum 120 damage is likely to kill him.

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    Default Re: Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

    Quote Originally Posted by theNater View Post
    I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.
    Maybe is my approach biased by how we calculate things on the geekery thread, min-maxing everything. But the use of averages doesn't work here.
    The calculation I made for Miko damage may be with higher stats/level than Miko had (if she has 15 STR instead of 16, that's 6 less damages for instance, but she needs 18 for 6 more damages).

    Miko may have dealt barely above 60 damages if she has been unlucky on her rolls (she's been lucky on some others) which would put Belkar at some 60 HP rather than 80.
    And thinking about it, I believe Belkar took one of his three unknown level in Ranger for the "Camouflage" skill.

    Belkar may have less than three rounds falling (and he would need at least some 2 thousands feet falling distance for that third round).
    And he needs a standard action to activate his barbarian rage (can he even uses that actually? He's out of combat, does it work outside of an encounter?)
    So if he can drink only one potion, maybe he can't go to full HP from this (we don't even know what kind of potions the order was given, maybe they're Cure Moderate Wounds only. Haley (and Bandana) haven't drank any of those while fighting Crystal, even when they had some rounds doing nothing else...)

    Also you're assuming that Belkar will end his fall on the road below. Maybe he will end on sharp rocks, maybe he will somehow continue his fall after hitting a first thing and have falling damages more than once.

    I'm not saying that Belkar's death from this fall is very likely, but it's not unlikely either. If the Giant decides that Belkar dies from this fall, this can totally happen without twisting the rules.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vovix View Post
    Actually, a high-level character can easily survive the 20d6 fall damage. The Order is, like, what, level 14 or 15 by now? Belkar has barbarian levels. Especially if he rages, not even the maximum 120 damage is likely to kill him.
    Not likely, but it still can happen.
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