Erfworld 62 - Page 56

[jindra34]

If they couldn't, why haven't Stanley or his previous warlords taken advantage of their damn nigh invincible dwagon army?

Mainly because they seemed to be fighting traditional front to front battles... against superior numbers... they had no understanding of the word 'tactics' or the words 'selective targeting'. They pretty much played into Ansom's hands... and of course the dwagons were back at Gobwin Knob the whole time.

[teratorn]

If they couldn't, why haven't Stanley or his previous warlords taken advantage of their damn nigh invincible dwagon army?

Two things: air support, and the thing about retreat before finishing.

[ReccaSquirrel]

Think about this for a moment.

Parson's forces can use Lookamancy. They can know EXACTLY where all units are at the start of the next turn. The Dwagon circle is within three hexes of the marching army. Bat scouts are going to early into their move find one of them. They send another bat into the area and find another. After six bats they find a ring with no view inside.

The distance from the marching army to the dwagons is very interesting. Units without a warlord have to attack. But they can still be commanded to only move to locations that have enemy units. Those guys don't have as much move buy they are right next to the marching enemy.

I'm suspecting a tactics change. The uncroaked warlords on the better dwagons are not in the center hex. The B dwagons get hit and take some casualities. The next turn starts and all dwagons get their health back. The warlord armies appear from where they have been hidden and strike the big target. The dwagons sitting next to Ansom's army strike the line in the process of, perhaps, a return to behind the walls.

If the uncroaked warlord stack takes out the rest of the siege and the B dwagons make a strike at numbers within the line, it is going to leave Ansom hurting. Especially if the B Dwagons take out the gwiffens and a warlord during their turn.

[SauroGrenom]

It doesn't seem like much of a plan. The only thing I can think of is that they want to hit the wounded Dwagons (because it'll be less expensive than hitting them once they've healed) and the Warlords (because of their selective capabilities). If it's certain death, surely he's not going himself, which makes the Arkenpliers/undead thing irrelevant.

Ansom has his flying carpet (all rolled up) that he uses to move around. Also he was planning on going to the expedition to pick up Jillian. So he personally must have a large move. I suspect that Ansom will personally be able to escape back to the column no matter what.

His forest units however are a different story. He's probably expecting to sacrifice his forest units to take out 19 dwagons and 3 warlords.

[slb]

Very nice reference to Jaws in the first panel.

The most obvious tactical choice for Parson is clearly to have the central spot empty. I'm however not sure he will try to croak Ansom's offensive stack, he will probably focus on the remaining siege in the column.

Ansom his able to protect himself once he discover the trap:
1) He could have enough remaining move with his flying carpet to go back to the column
2) He could have a huge stack of archers of the column move with him, they cannot attack the dwagon in the heavy forest (only woodsies, gumps and flyers can) but they can retaliate if the dwagon attack on Stanley's turn.

But in either case Jetstone weaken his capability to protect the siege in the column.

So yes, Stanley will lose 3 dwagons, but that's a cheap cost in exchange for all the siege (and certainly more) from Jetstone.

[mrocktor]

1. Parson's strategic objective is to make the siege of GK ineffective (evidence: cherry-picking siege units with the dwagons; the fact that he "loses" if the siege is successful)

2. Due to being severely outnumbered, Parson's main tactical guideline is to conserve his forces, he will not sacrifice troops unless he can gain better than 25:1 kill ratio (evidence: his smart use of warlords and retreating to raid the column with zero losses)

3. The distance between the column and GK was such that Parson could not pull off the dwagon raid AND retreat to the city in the same turn, therefore he had to keep a portion of his force "fresh" so his forces could survive Ansom's turn.

All of this went into making the original raid+fort plan.

4. Since the original raid+fort plan called for a ring of stacks with four or five "fresh" dwagons each, without warlord support, we have to assume that such a force is NOT something Ansom can take lightly (else it would be simple to breach one point of the ring and proceed to the wounded dwagons in the center) OR that the original plan called for the fort to be placed further from the column (meaning Ansom could bring less force to bear on the fort).

5. If the first conjecture in (4) were true, killing 3 fresh dwagons and then the injured stacks would be almost as daunting as killing 4 then the injured units. Ansom would be unlikely to engage the fort. I assume that the fort was deliberately placed closer to the column than originally intended (thus exposing it to more of Ansom's units).

6. If Parson deliberately placed the fort within reach of Ansom's troops and is using the prospect of an attack on 3 fresh dwagons followed by an attack on two dozen wounded dwagons plus 3 warlords as BAIT, he has to know that Ansom can field a task force capable of winning such an engagement.

7. Since Parson does not have troops to waste (2) we can safely assume that any of his stacks can do serious damage to Ansom's task force (enough to win, make him retreat or inflict serious casualties).

Now here is what I think Parson did:

A. He built the fort at a distance that ensures that any forest capable ground troops sent to attack it cannot get back to the column (note: there seems to be a move penalty for ground units in forests, since the fort is only a couple hexes away but "would use almost all their move").

B. "Hiding" the center hex induces Ansom to commit those troops just to clear the 3 furthest dwagons. Notice that this attack is a big deal (if it were not, Ansom would just bite the bullet and attack the nearer stack gaining a better tactical position).

C. Putting any troops in the center hex would mean spreading his forces over 6 hexes instead of 5 (excluding the 3 dwagon "lure"). I think the center is empty.

D. If Ansom commits his forest troops and breaches the 3 dwagon hex and finds nothing in the center, he still has a force that probably could take one or two 4 dwagon hexes. Parson can't lose units! This is why I think there is more to the ring of dwagons than the bats saw.

E. My guess: each of the "strong" hexes in the ring has a stack of healthy dwagons (the ones that attacked the bats) and a stack of injured dwagons with a warlord (that kept it from attacking the bats).

If this is true, once Ansom commits his forest troops to breaching the rear hex and finds nothing in the middle, if he decides to attack one of the other positions in the ring with his flyers he'll be facing fresh dwagons AND wounded dwagons with warlord support, at least 8 total dwagons in each hex.

If Ansom commits, even if he manages to clear one of those hexes, Parson still has 40 full dwagons and 4 warlords to wipe out everything Ansom sent out on his turn.

Finally, the strategic result: Parson wipes out ALL the forest units AND all the flyers and can raid with all the dwagons (no more keeping half the force in reserve) using the forest as a safe spot during Ansom's turn. He still has at least 3 turns until the column gets to GK - enough to destroy all siege units and any other important units he wants to.

[shakes019]

On the subject of losing the 3 dwagons as bait, note that on page 55, Stanley was resigned to some losses. That says to me that Stanley would be okay with losing some units in order to achieve a desirable outcome.

However, Parson's flippant "How about none!" response would not put him in very good stead if he only delayed the destruction of his task force by half a turn.

[Xenon]

i see Ansom's plan here. its not about dragons- its about warlords!

Think man! All Ansom knows says that Stanley only has four uncroaked warlords, and no leadership corp! that means if those 3 are gone, then the dragon attacks wont be able to hit and run anymore, and stanley will only have ONE lone uncroaked warlord to defend his walls with!

The real bait here is not 'wounded dragons', its warlords! the one thing stanely has the least of, the area of Ansoms greatest advantage (as he perceives it)

So Parson has set a brilliant trap. and he probably didnt even dare to hope Ansom would bring the pliers out for him to grab... but hes ready for that option.

the center being a trap is quite likely. if they really want to screw with Ansom, there will be a 'welcome to the trap!' sign...

[shakes019]

I suppose the other big question is whether or not Parson is aware of the Arkenpliers special ability. I assume that Stanley is aware of it, but we don't know for sure. We know that Parson and Stanley are aware of the fact that Ansom has them, and I assume that they would expect him to use them in the assault on the trap.

I love these does he know that they know that he knows games.

[TigerHunter]

Anyone else think that, trap or not, Ansom's plan is pretty stupid? I realize he doesn't have much choice, but his counterattack will be ending turn, weakened from fighting two dozen dwagons, right in the center of 27 healthy dwagons.

[TheTurnipKing]

Mainly because they seemed to be fighting traditional front to front battles... against superior numbers... they had no understanding of the word 'tactics' or the words 'selective targeting'. They pretty much played into Ansom's hands... and of course the dwagons were back at Gobwin Knob the whole time.

I think it's a faulty assumption to assume that none of Stanleys previous warlords had a clue that he had a near unstoppable death machine in the Dwagons, if such was the case. I think at least some of the apparent incompetence can be put down to Tool interference.

For now though, only some of the air support can reach the base hex, but It's a fair bet more of them can reach the column. I'd say move as much of the column towards the air support as possible, while moving the air support towards the column. Even without air support, the column was able to put a fair few dents in those Dwagons, so with decent air support should be able to do even better. It MIGHT entrail splitting the column for a few turns, but even that works in favour of limiting the damage that the dwagons can cause per turn.

Infact, Ansom should be doing this reguardless, since he surely must know it's unlikely/impossible he'll take out the whole platter this turn.

[Twilight Jack]

I think I see the plan now.

Okay, here's the meat of it:

Before Parson knew that Ansom's forces needed to scout out any non-adjacent hexes to know what they contained, the idea was the party platter, with the warlords and 'A' dwagons retreating to the center of the fort formation, protected by the lower move 'B' dwagons.

But if Ansom has to scout to know where the dwagons are, then there's no need to actually put the 'A' dwagons inside the fort. They can fly off to where ever they please and just kick it. Parson arranges the 'B' dwagons as if they were surrounding the warlords and purposefully makes one part of the ring weak, on the far side so that it appears he's trying to make that spot less vulnerable by restricting the number of Ansom's units that can reach it. Additionally, if I'm inferring correctly, the three dwagons stationed in that hex are of the weaker types.

Ansom has overwhelming numbers and no small number of fairly competent warlords. Defeating three relatively weak dwagons in a single turn should be fairly easy if he hits it with a strong enough force. Once that's done, Ansom and his own retinue can move into the hex that's 'protecting' the warlords and their wounded dwagons and Ansom can let the Arkenpliers do their thing while the rest of his forces mop up the nearly croaked dwagons in that hex.

Boom, in a single-turn counterattack, Lord Stanley has just lost three more of his dwindling warlord supply. Considering that units can only attack mindlessly without a warlord in the stack, that means that Stanley's ability to use the tactic that was so effective last turn is utterly gone. In the meantime, Ansom's forest units move in on the strong dwagon stacks and sacrifice themselves to weaken the force of Stanley's counter-counterattack once Ansom's turn is ended. Since they can't do anything but attack mindlessly without a warlord, Ansom himself should remain relatively safe during Stanley's next turn, and then he can retreat to the column next turn. Considering the amount of damage that was done by the first hit-and-run, there is no way not to take this bait. Even losing almost every forest and flying unit in that part of the column is a small price to pay for recroaking the majority of Stanley's remaining warlords.

Well you see, there's a kind of hitch. The 'A' dwagons aren't in the center of the formation. They're somewhere else entirely, concealed from Ansom by the fog of war (thus the whole new dimension Parson mentioned). Ansom commits all available fliers and forest units to punching through the weak hex and tying up the warlordless dwagons in the adjacent hexes only to find an empty center and not enough move to retreat this turn. Ansom's turn ends and Parson's rejuvenated 'A' dwagons return and join up with the 'B' group to swoop in on Ansom's weakened forces (Ansom's units don't get to heal until the start of their next turn, and the surviving 'B' dwagons are at full strength again) and massacre them utterly.

Now it's Ansom who's finding his warlords being selectively targeted and since it's Stanley's turn, Ansom can't use the Arkenpliers to recroak Stanley's warlords (an advantage that even Parson doesn't know, although it works to his advantage), since that would require selective targeting which appears to be possible only on one's own turn. Since those 'A' dwagons are less than five hexes away, that leaves Parson's entire force with more than enough move to retreat beyond reprisal once they determine they've done enough damage.

Parson was right, this could change the course of the whole battle.

[Ben_the_dragon]

i dont know if this has been said...i dot have time to read through every post at the moment.

parson is a smart man, and if he thinks about it hard enough he will know this.

i need to save as many units as possible
i need to rid myself the threat of the forest units
i want ansom gone
what should i do it with this setup

this is what i would do

i would have the middle hex empty, why? so next turn i can hit it with everything i got, at full power. moving the units there will chew up all his move so they are not going anywhere, ansom is using everything he has to beat down that hex so everything parson wants is there and got going anywhere, why not minimize the losses and hold off until next turn and go for the win?

that is what i would do

edit: fixed spelling and confusion

[throx]

However, Parson's flippant "How about none!" response would not put him in very good stead if he only delayed the destruction of his task force by half a turn.

My thoughts exactly, which is why I think Parson has a way to get those 3 out of the line of fire. I understand "acceptable losses" and all that, but outnumbered 25:1, 3 dwagons is approaching unacceptable.

If there's a way to get out without casualties then you can bet Parson will try it.

[Overdark]

I expect Parson to keep some dwagons in the center hex to make sure Ansom forces enter there.

You have to move into the hex to "see" whats in the hex. Otherwise there would be no reason why Vinnie had to loose a bat or six.

[djharr]

For those people who are worried that Ansom is going to finish his turn surrounded by 27 dwagons, and thus is going to get his ass kicked, you are looking at the statistics in the wrong way. Ansom is NOT surrounded by 27 dwagons. First of all, it will only be 24 total, because of the death of the stack of three. Second, it will be 4, 4, 5, 5, and 6 dwagons. Remember, Ansom kills all the warlords his turn. Then, the only thing that the remaining dwagons can do is attack piecemeal on Stanley's turn. I am pretty certain that any group that can kill 20+ dwagons, even wounded dwagons, is going to be up to blasting a group of 4, 5, or 6 dwagons. Also, is Stanley going to risk ALL of the rest of his dwagons in these piecemeal attacks? I don't think so.

So, I think Ansom's plan is this: punch through the weak hex with his forces. He will just barely have enough move to put them into the center hex. THEN, Jillian and archons and such join them for an attack on the weakened formation and the warlords. He is confident that he can destroy the warlords and the 20+ wounded dwagons. That bespeaks a really powerful force. Then, after having eliminated them, he may be able to move a hex or two away ("ALMOST all of our move, boss"...). End turn. Now, he has an uberpowerful stack of units that are quite close to air units that have no warlord with them and are vastly inferior numerically and combat-wise. I think he does not have a lot to worry about in terms of getting attacked.

David

[Moral Wiz]

I still think the fact that there are three dragons is not a coincidence. Remember, their are also 3 warlords. That would be the best way to protect it. It's possible though, that they could withdraw from fighting ansom(this one is a hard to debate point, as we have no evidence one way or the other. Let's leave it. )

If they do withdraw, where too? the main stack. I'm guessing Dwagons have noteable hit points, so a few on nearly full would make a big diference against Ansome.

[Twilight Jack]

For those people who are worried that Ansom is going to finish his turn surrounded by 27 dwagons, and thus is going to get his ass kicked, you are looking at the statistics in the wrong way. Ansom is NOT surrounded by 27 dwagons. First of all, it will only be 24 total, because of the death of the stack of three. Second, it will be 4, 4, 5, 5, and 6 dwagons. Remember, Ansom kills all the warlords his turn. Then, the only thing that the remaining dwagons can do is attack piecemeal on Stanley's turn. I am pretty certain that any group that can kill 20+ dwagons, even wounded dwagons, is going to be up to blasting a group of 4, 5, or 6 dwagons. Also, is Stanley going to risk ALL of the rest of his dwagons in these piecemeal attacks? I don't think so.

So, I think Ansom's plan is this: punch through the weak hex with his forces. He will just barely have enough move to put them into the center hex. THEN, Jillian and archons and such join them for an attack on the weakened formation and the warlords. He is confident that he can destroy the warlords and the 20+ wounded dwagons. That bespeaks a really powerful force. Then, after having eliminated them, he may be able to move a hex or two away ("ALMOST all of our move, boss"...). End turn. Now, he has an uberpowerful stack of units that are quite close to air units that have no warlord with them and are vastly inferior numerically and combat-wise. I think he does not have a lot to worry about in terms of getting attacked.

David

Go upthread a bit and read my assessment of Parson's plan. I don't thing Ansom is going to end his turn surrounded by 24 dwagons. I think he's going to punch through to the center of the formation to find nothing, retreat the one or two hexes of move he has left, then find himself beset by 43 completely fresh dwagons (the 24 in the formation plus the 19 original hit-and-runners that have actually retreated beyond the range of Ansom's intel) with all three warlords completely intact on Parson's turn.

It's a totally different vibe.

[Monan]

Ever heard of something called Armor?

Can't you take a joke? This is a great forum to hash out ideas and thoughts, but you should maintain your sense of humor. Don't take this too seriously. It's fiction last time I checked. Great fiction, but fiction none the less.

[Flakey]

Re :- Hiding forces from Ansom.

A lot of people are basing predictions on dwagons hiding in hexs already scouted out. Trouble with this though in almost all turn based, and real time strategy games, you need specialist units to be able to do this. All other units, regardless of terrain are spoted once you get a unit in position to see them. So far in Erfworld this seems to be holding true. I dont think there are any hiding, in plain sight, dwagons around.


*sighs* I know its my play style, but I would hate to be doing what Ansom is going to do. I dislike doing the obvious, and also prefer to retain move, even at the expense of casulaties. Therefore, I would hit one of the 4 dwagon hexes, instead of the 3 dwagon hex (possibily even a 5, but would need much more information on whats going on to decide). Giving my units more opertunity to react to new events. I have to admitt though, my style seems to be on the rare side.

Edit :- line inserted - instead of the 3 dwagon hex

[Twilight Jack]

Re :- Hiding forces from Ansom.

A lot of people are basing predictions on dwagons hiding in hexs already scouted out. Trouble with this though in almost all turn based, and real time strategy games, you need specialist units to be able to do this. All other units, regardless of terrain are spoted once you get a unit in position to see them. So far in Erfworld this seems to be holding true. I dont think there are any hiding, in plain sight, dwagons around.


*sighs* I know its my play style, but I would hate to be doing what Ansom is going to do. I dislike doing the obvious, and also prefer to retain move, even at the expense of casulaties. Therefore, I would hit one of the 4 dwagon hexes (possibily even a 5, but would need much more information on whats going on to decide). Giving my units more opertunity to react to new events. I have to admitt though, my style seems to be on the rare side.

The factor that you're not taking into account is that the damage Parson did to Ansom's seige this turn is entirely dependent upon the presence of warlords in Parson's stack and the absence of warlords in the stacks that Parson's dwagons attack. Ansom has a lot of warlords, it seems, but certainly not enough to cover every seige unit in his column. Every turn between here and Gobwin Knob, Parson is going to send those dwagons after seige units completely fresh, doing more and more damage each time. Ansom's only chance to avoid losing his entire seige force before he reaches Gobwin Knob is to get those warlords off the table. If he believes that the wounded dwagons and the warlords are holed up in the center of that formation, he has to attack it. If he doesn't, things will get just that much worse on Parson's next turn.

Without the intel to know that the wounded dwagons are somewhere else, Ansom has no choice but to strike at the place they are most likely to be--the hex at the center of the formation.

[Monan]

Yes Vinnie is vampiric but that does not mean he is a vampire. And erf vampires already have some differences from fictional ones so why should we assume they are undead? how many times must i repeat this argument before people get it?

(Please pardon my spelling in advance) Brams Stokers Dracula, Vampire in Brooklyn, Once Bitten, Fright Night, Vampire Hunter D, Blade, Van Helsing, Anne Rice novels, The Lost Boys all have different versions of vampires. Some differences subtle, some major, but I believe they all stayed consistent with the thought that the vampired were undead. Erf vampires also have their diffences with the ones shown in the movies I listed. Actually i've seen only one Erf vampire, Vinnie. He's had bats as his minions. Anyway, the point made about Vinnie being a undead is to show that undead exsist on both sides. And although the majority of Stanley's forces are traditionaly evil (on Earth) and the opposite for Ansom's forces they both have units that are on the opposite side of the "good"-"evil" spectrum. I actually think Parson as a good natured guy, and actually Seizmore and Misty seem nice too. Ansom is more or less an arogant prick, and Vinnie the "vampiric" guy is a traditionally evil type (exceptions are Blade, Vamp hunter D), but he has a good heart.

Anyway like many have said this is a great and very interesting comic. Some things are straight forward, some are dynamic.

[Flakey]

he has to attack it. If he doesn't, things will get just that much worse on Parson's next turn.

Without the intel to know that the wounded dwagons are somewhere else, Ansom has no choice but to strike at the place they are most likely to be--the hex at the center of the formation.

I agree and modified my post to add a clarification. I am not saying he should not attack, but the gammer in me would attack a 4 dwagon hex at the side, instead of using all the move to get to the 3 dwagon hex. It gives the dwagons a 33% increase in defence, but allows you the option of a move to react to what you find. I can understand Ansom wanting the strongest force possible to hit the center, but leaves him little room to manover if/when things go wrong.

[Krelon]

My thoughts exactly, which is why I think Parson has a way to get those 3 out of the line of fire. I understand "acceptable losses" and all that, but outnumbered 25:1, 3 dwagons is approaching unacceptable.

If there's a way to get out without casualties then you can bet Parson will try it.

I think the 3 are toast. Some people posted they could retreat, but I got the impression that only the attacker can abort (retreat). Otherwise Ansom's men could have always retreated the siege units from the stacks when they were last turn.

Maybe those are the 3 slowest and weakest dwagons in the entire army. Probably they have less hits per dwagon then all the rest. Sacrificing those 3 for let's say croaking 100% of the siege plus some of the alliance warlords AND slowing the column for 1 turn should be acceptable.

[Twilight Jack]

I agree and modified my post to add a clarification. I am not saying he should not attack, but the gammer in me would attack a 4 dwagon hex at the side, instead of using all the move to get to the 3 dwagon hex. It gives the dwagons a 33% increase in defence, but allows you the option of a move to react to what you find. I can understand Ansom wanting the strongest force possible to hit the center, but leaves him little room to manover if/when things go wrong.

Good point. The suspected but unknown variable for me there is that not all dwagons are created equal. The three in the far hex are yellow, purple, and pink, which don't seem to compare with the reds, greens, and blues. If those four dwagon hexes are also stronger varieties of dwagon, then you're not looking at a mere 33% increase. Keep in mind that if you fail to punch through, or punch through without enough oomph left to finish off the warlords "in the center," then you've made your situation scads worse.

[Flakey]

(Please pardon my spelling in advance) Some differences subtle, some major, but I believe they all stayed consistent with the thought that the vampired were undead.

Lifeforce - Aliens
This Sucks (anthology of vampire novellets) - Vampism ranging from traditional, virus to aliens.
Tomorrow Bites - Same as "This Sucks"

I can probably dig out a few more, and I will admit they are not as numerous as the traditional vampire stories, but they are a growing number of vampire stories out there, that do not depend on being undead.

[PlasticSoldier]

It gives the dwagons a 33% increase in defence,

Don't forget that units get group bonuses so it would be more than that.

[Twilight Jack]

Don't forget that units get group bonuses so it would be more than that.

Oh, yeah, huh. I forgot that too. Well, that just reinforces my thesis.

[JosephHeller]

From what I see, if Ansom swings his forces around, behind Stanley's army... that's a good chunk of his army that Parson doesn't have to deal with. Our Lord Hamster's got the "Good Guys" in quite a predicament, and a lose-lose situation. Even if Ansom himself, (on his flying carpet), and all the forest units they have DO manage to take out that base hex, that's a large chunk of his army that's now in a terrible position for next turn. Parson punches through with the remaining dwagons, and boom. If he doesn't, that's 36 fully-healed dwagons ready to pwn babies. No right answer.

This is, of course, assuming that Parson didn't set a trap. I think he did. Setting up a formation with such a simple weakness? Doesn't seem like Gotti's style. If Parson didn't want the attack from behind, or hadn't expected it, he'd have put the dwagons 4-4-4-4-4-4, not 5-4-4-4-4-3. Basically, long story short: Never look through the keyhole.

[Flakey]

Good point. The suspected but unknown variable for me there is that not all dwagons are created equal. The three in the far hex are yellow, purple, and pink, which don't seem to compare with the reds, greens, and blues. If those four dwagon hexes are also stronger varieties of dwagon, then you're not looking at a mere 33% increase. Keep in mind that if you fail to punch through, or punch through without enough oomph left to finish off the warlords "in the center," then you've made your situation scads worse.

*Laughs* I missed that, and thank you. This leads me to my gamming paronoia though. Admitedly its the back hex, but you have a hex thats the weakest of the 6 populated by 3 of the weakest dwagons. I would be asking why?

I am kind of disapointed with Vinny, because of this, now that you made me think on it. His sences so far have been great when confronted with this type of situation.