Erfworld 62 - Page 56

[TheTurnipKing]

What they do when they find it empty is turn around, get one or two hexes worth of move before their turn is over, and find themselves wounded and seperated from their column when Parson's turn comes again. Since all of Parson's dwagons heal completely at the beginning of his turn, he now has Ansom right where he wants him. The only question remaining is how much of a wildcard the Arkenpliers will prove to be.

Though it is a fair point that the center hex may not be entirely empty - we've only seem Parson use Dwagons so far, but it's possible he may have had other units in the field he could use.

Twolls, Gobwins and Spidews don't seem like they'd be a good swap even for wounded Dwagons, tho.

[CNagy]

Attacking more siege units at this point strikes me poorly because it seems to abandon all 27 (24 by the time Parson's turn hits) 'B' dwagons without a warlord and in a pile of Ansom's strike forces. Units engaged in combat cannot withdraw from that combat without a warlord in their stack until all enemy units in contact are croaked (again, Parson's klog). That's one of the things I meant by vulnerable. The other thing is that moving back to the column takes more move than hitting Ansom, which leave less for retreat.

The B Dwagons are B Dwagons because they didn't have enough move to get to the Platter formation, go out to attack the siege, and get back to the platter formation. We know from the Klog that all of the dragons have enough move to get back to Gobwin Knob from the Platter Formation on the next turn, with the ability to pull off some surgical strikes along the way. Those 24 Dwagons are not without a Warlord if the A Dwagons and the B Dwagons meet up in one hex, to form up to 3 stacks, and all head back to Gobwin Knob together.

I just can't see Parson passing that up to croak more siege units, when the capture or croaking of a majority of Ansom's strike force ensures the ability to croak siege at leisure on successive turns.

Capturing or Croaking at the expense of alot of units. Ansom isn't an idiot. He believes the wounded dwagons are in the center, but he isn't going in with a force that would be obliterated by the 24 Dwagons (after taking out a score of Dwagons and 3 Uncroaked Warlords) that he knows will have him surrounded on five sides. The full force of the A Dwagons would probably ensure victory, but the losses would not be insignificant.

On Ansom's side, the lost units would consist of forest-capable units (which probably are not going to be of much importance when sieging a mountain city) and fliers (whose sole purpose was to neutralize Stanley's Dwagons in the first place.)
On Stanley's side, the lost units would consist of Dwagons and Warlords, both of which are vital to his military.

The capture or croaking of Ansom might cause the coalition to fall apart, or it might strengthen their resolve and further convince them that Stanley is a threat that needs to be removed. Thus, it is not an event that can be counted on to produce a specific result.

Destroying the siege, however, makes Gobwin Knob practically impregnable. Furthermore, it was Parson's plan from the beginning. Additionally, while he may be able to plink at the siege units for the next several turns before they get to Gobwin Knob, we know without a doubt (due to his Klog entry) that he intends to bring them home on Stanley's next turn. His reasoning is anyone's guess, but working within that time frame (especially if Ansom's counter-attack is part of his plan) attacking the siege is the tactic the provides the most benefit with the least (possibly no) loss.

[Scientivore]

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Having the wounded dwagons in the circle and fresh ones in the middle would be dangerous. Ansom gets crushed in the middle but he can ask Jillian to engage the outside circle. A few Gwiffons and 3 archons against 5 or 6 heavily wounded dwagons could cause a lot of damage. The wounded dwagons are elsewhere, probably out of reach even to Jillian. Or maybe they can stay undercover when with warlords.

We have no idea on how time works in Erfworld. For example, can Ansom deploy reinforcements after the first units have checked the target, or do they need to start moving now? Same for Jillian. If Ansom asks her to move later will she be able to join the forces at the forest?

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Ansom won't be able to give any orders to Jillian if he's been captured by 19 fully functional dwagons (cue the Emperor's theme music).

Since they were willing to move six bats first, one after another, it appears that move is purely a measure of distance, not time.

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Can there be two stacks in one hex, one led by a warlord, one not? If a scout is sent to a hex, and then the unled stack attacks the scout, and the led stack does not attack, will the scout see the led stack. Is it possible that the led stack will not be noticed.

The warlord led stacks could be on the outer walls, of the "fort" not attacking, with a unled stack next to them attacking. The counts bats scout, see the unled stacks but not the led stacks. Then they enter the center, find it empty, and get smacked the next turn.

There can be multiple stacks in a hex. I suppose that it's possible that a stack in a forest hex could remain hidden by not attacking a scout in the same hex but it seems unlikely to me.

Not really sure of the forum etiquette here on when to use spoiler tags, so I'm going to play it safe.

On this board you may openly speculate to your heart's content. I also post on the OotS board where speculation counts as spoilers and it's easier for me to just use one safe rule of thumb for all of the GitP boards.

If Parson is outnumbered 25 to 1 then he's not even going to willingly sacrifice 3 dwagons. Part of asymmetric warfare is hit and retreat.

The other part of asymmetric warfare is seeking qualitative leverage to nullify numerical disadvantages. For example, I would readily sacrifice three dwagons to finish completely destroying all of the Alliance's siege units. Or, I would sacrifice them to capture the Alliance's leader and his artifact.

I was wondering about not having everything in the same hex. I suppose that arrows would be a problem for the wounded dwagons inside, even if surrounded by healthy ones. So I guess circle makes sense, in particular because if everything was on the same hex enemy could attack from six directions. I wonder if there is a limit on how many units can enter a side of the hex. Attackers face two bottlenecks this way.

From the Alliance's point of view, a 1:6 enemy-to-ally kill ratio is better than the expectations that Ansom initially set for them (when he said that they have four times as much army as they need). From GK's point of view, anything less than a 25:1 enemy-to-ally kill ratio worsens their position (barring qualitative gains of strategic leverage).

Suppose that all of the dwagons were lumped together. Ansom would benefit numerically (from the Alliance's point of view) from throwing away 19 minor warlords and 95 forest-capable units just to croak the 19 wounded dwagons. More importantly, Ansom could hurt Stanley quantitatively (from GK's point of view) and qualitatively by throwing away just three minor warlords and 69 forest-capable units for nothing more than selectively re-croaking the three uncroaked warlords.

[CNagy]

One thing I forgot to mention; while we can debate the importance of capturing/croaking Ansom versus destroying the siege units, from a story perspective it seems unlikely that Ansom will come to any harm just yet (it would be anticlimactic for a story that, from all indications, is has only progressed 2/3s through.)

Far more likely, from a story telling point of view, is the idea that Ansom is sitting in the heavy forest, realizing that he had been baited to the spot, tricked again as the "Winning Engagement" reports begin to filter in once more during Stanley's turn.

[Twilight Jack]

The capture or croaking of Ansom might cause the coalition to fall apart, or it might strengthen their resolve and further convince them that Stanley is a threat that needs to be removed. Thus, it is not an event that can be counted on to produce a specific result.

Destroying the siege, however, makes Gobwin Knob practically impregnable. Furthermore, it was Parson's plan from the beginning. Additionally, while he may be able to plink at the siege units for the next several turns before they get to Gobwin Knob, we know without a doubt (due to his Klog entry) that he intends to bring them home on Stanley's next turn. His reasoning is anyone's guess, but working within that time frame (especially if Ansom's counter-attack is part of his plan) attacking the siege is the tactic the provides the most benefit with the least (possibly no) loss.

It was Parson's plan before he learned that Ansom needed to actually scout for his intel. And it was his plan after the original plan to capture Ansom (and the Arkenpliers) had already fallen apart. Now, the two plans can become one.

Also, since units can only move on their own turns, Parson can use the same cycling of dwagons trick that worked so well on the siege units to minimize his losses while focusing his energy on hitting the units he wants to croak. As long as it's Parson's turn, Ansom can't match that little maneuver. Throw in the Mathamancy and Luckamancy that Parson's just now bringing into the equation, and it could be enough to turn the tide without nearly the losses you're predicting.

On the other hand, I'd imagine that any loss of dwagons would be acceptable to Stanley the Tool if Parson delivers the Arkenpliers. Since Stanley knows how to attune them to himself, he can take full advantage of whatever it is that they do. Remember that the Arkenhammer is what gives Stanley control over all those dwagons. If the Arkenpliers are equally powerful in the right hands, then they're worth a little risk.

[Vatharian]

That's alot of geekery... However, I'm not convinced, that battle will actually take place.

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You have been warned!

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I'm still into option, that Parson's plan involves Jillian bringing arkenpliers to the stack, after Ansom GIVES them to her, to let her personally croak these warlords, 'cause he doesn't want to risk his own life. Quick. Dirty. And clean. In this scenario, all dwagons will probably just burst on each direction to wreak havoc on the column but two or three to escort AP to GK. That would surely disband the alliance. Masterstroke, that will left Ansom nearly powerless. And opener for a new intrigue, involving Jillian's royality and some high-caliber quarrels over dominance in GK.

[idioscosmos]

I don't know if anyone brought any of this up but page 49 brings up some rather salient points. First off Ansom says "our intelligence isn't that bad within the column". After that Vinnie says he wishes he'd left some bats in the column. That seems to indicate that Ansom's forces don't really know what a hex holds 'till they enter/attack it.

Indeed it implies they don't always know the composition of their own hexes.

Second is the fact that it's implied no-one's ever thought of attacking part of a column before. The first part of the Stanlyite forces plan seems to be attack the column, destroy the seige equipment (without which Ansom's forces can't attack Goblin Hill) and then withdraw from battle (thus why the Stanlyites aren't gaining XP for the encounters. This does two things - first off it threatens something Ansom absolutely has to have - his seige machines. It also puts him in a situation where he has to attack to defend it - his only other option is to laager up like Stanly's dragons are now - and if he does that Goblin Hill is safe (sitting in a nice safe pile means no moving and getting down to the seige).

The only real question I have is if you can attack the same hex twice in one turn - Ansom's plan isn't bad - his hands are tied, he HAS to take out the "A" dragons or loose the rest of his seige next turn. If he takes out the weak hex in the back I don't think he can send in a bat to see what's in there. I think the system is "move then shoot" - in which case Ansom's going to have pretty much his entire command surrounded by every freakin' dragon the Stanlyites have and he'll have no move left to get out. That leaves him with maybe one option - attack the strongest hex in the ring (the one, coincidentally closest to the road his forces are on) in order to clear a line of retreat/allow Ansomite re-inforcements to come up.

And that's if they can move through the forest.

He'd actually be much better off doing a frontal assault in this case - at least he'd have somewhere to go if his plan failed. To take a page from Napoleon's book, always secure your line of retreat.

As far as Parson's plan goes, does anyone else think it's lifted straight from Sun Tzu? Read the following under the spoiler tag and see if it sounds similar -

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07. MANEUVERING

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1. Sun Tzu said: In war, the general receives his commands
from the sovereign.
2. Having collected an army and concentrated his forces, he
must blend and harmonize the different elements thereof before
pitching his camp.
("Chang Yu says: "the establishment of harmony and
confidence between the higher and lower ranks before venturing
into the field;" and he quotes a saying of Wu Tzu (chap. 1 ad
init.): "Without harmony in the State, no military expedition
can be undertaken; without harmony in the army, no battle array
can be formed." In an historical romance Sun Tzu is represented
as saying to Wu Yuan: "As a general rule, those who are waging
war should get rid of all the domestic troubles before proceeding
to attack the external foe.")
3. After that, comes tactical maneuvering, than which there
is nothing more difficult.
(I have departed slightly from the traditional
interpretation of Ts`ao Kung, who says: "From the time of
receiving the sovereign's instructions until our encampment over
against the enemy, the tactics to be pursued are most difficult."
It seems to me that the tactics or maneuvers can hardly be said
to begin until the army has sallied forth and encamped, and
Ch`ien Hao's note gives color to this view: "For levying,
concentrating, harmonizing and entrenching an army, there are
plenty of old rules which will serve. The real difficulty comes
when we engage in tactical operations." Tu Yu also observes that
"the great difficulty is to be beforehand with the enemy in
seizing favorable position.")
The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists in turning the
devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain.
(This sentence contains one of those highly condensed and
somewhat enigmatical expressions of which Sun Tzu is so fond.
This is how it is explained by Ts`ao Kung: "Make it appear that
you are a long way off, then cover the distance rapidly and
arrive on the scene before your opponent." Tu Mu says:
"Hoodwink the enemy, so that he may be remiss and leisurely while
you are dashing along with utmost speed." Ho Shih gives a
slightly different turn: "Although you may have difficult ground
to traverse and natural obstacles to encounter this is a drawback
which can be turned into actual advantage by celerity of
movement." Signal examples of this saying are afforded by the
two famous passages across the Alps--that of Hannibal, which laid
Italy at his mercy, and that of Napoleon two thousand years
later, which resulted in the great victory of Marengo.)
4. Thus, to take a long and circuitous route, after
enticing the enemy out of the way, and though starting after him,
to contrive to reach the goal before him, shows knowledge of the
artifice of DEVIATION.
(Tu Mu cites the famous march of Chao She in 270 B.C. to
relieve the town of O-yu, which was closely invested by a Ch`in
army. The King of Chao first consulted Lien P`o on the
advisability of attempting a relief, but the latter thought the
distance too great, and the intervening country too rugged and
difficult. His Majesty then turned to Chao She, who fully
admitted the hazardous nature of the march, but finally said:
"We shall be like two rats fighting in a whole--and the pluckier
one will win!" So he left the capital with his army, but had
only gone a distance of 30 LI when he stopped and began
throwing up entrenchments. For 28 days he continued
strengthening his fortifications, and took care that spies should
carry the intelligence to the enemy. The Ch`in general was
overjoyed, and attributed his adversary's tardiness to the fact
that the beleaguered city was in the Han State, and thus not
actually part of Chao territory. But the spies had no sooner
departed than Chao She began a forced march lasting for two days
and one night, and arrive on the scene of action with such
astonishing rapidity that he was able to occupy a commanding
position on the "North hill" before the enemy had got wind of his
movements. A crushing defeat followed for the Ch`in forces, who
were obliged to raise the siege of O-yu in all haste and retreat
across the border.)
5. Maneuvering with an army is advantageous; with an
undisciplined multitude, most dangerous.
(I adopt the reading of the T`UNG TIEN, Cheng Yu-hsien and
the T`U SHU, since they appear to apply the exact nuance required
in order to make sense. The commentators using the standard text
take this line to mean that maneuvers may be profitable, or they
may be dangerous: it all depends on the ability of the general.)
6. If you set a fully equipped army in march in order to
snatch an advantage, the chances are that you will be too late.
On the other hand, to detach a flying column for the purpose
involves the sacrifice of its baggage and stores.
(Some of the Chinese text is unintelligible to the Chinese
commentators, who paraphrase the sentence. I submit my own
rendering without much enthusiasm, being convinced that there is
some deep-seated corruption in the text. On the whole, it is
clear that Sun Tzu does not approve of a lengthy march being
undertaken without supplies. Cf. infra, ss. 11.)
7. Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats,
and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering
double the usual distance at a stretch,
(The ordinary day's march, according to Tu Mu, was 30 LI;
but on one occasion, when pursuing Liu Pei, Ts`ao Ts`ao is said
to have covered the incredible distance of 300 _li_ within
twenty-four hours.)
doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of
all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy.
8. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will
fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will
reach its destination.
(The moral is, as Ts`ao Kung and others point out: Don't
march a hundred LI to gain a tactical advantage, either with or
without impedimenta. Maneuvers of this description should be
confined to short distances. Stonewall Jackson said: "The
hardships of forced marches are often more painful than the
dangers of battle." He did not often call upon his troops for
extraordinary exertions. It was only when he intended a
surprise, or when a rapid retreat was imperative, that he
sacrificed everything for speed. (1) )
9. If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy,
you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half
your force will reach the goal.
(Literally, "the leader of the first division will be
TORN AWAY.")
10. If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds
of your army will arrive.
(In the T`UNG TIEN is added: "From this we may know the
difficulty of maneuvering.")
11. We may take it then that an army without its baggage-
train is lost; without provisions it is lost; without bases of
supply it is lost.
(I think Sun Tzu meant "stores accumulated in depots." But
Tu Yu says "fodder and the like," Chang Yu says "Goods in
general," and Wang Hsi says "fuel, salt, foodstuffs, etc.")
12. We cannot enter into alliances until we are acquainted
with the designs of our neighbors.
13. We are not fit to lead an army on the march unless we
are familiar with the face of the country--its mountains and
forests, its pitfalls and precipices, its marshes and swamps.
14. We shall be unable to turn natural advantage to account
unless we make use of local guides.
(ss. 12-14 are repeated in chap. XI. ss. 52.)
15. In war, practice dissimulation, and you will succeed.
(In the tactics of Turenne, deception of the enemy,
especially as to the numerical strength of his troops, took a
very prominent position. (2) )
16. Whether to concentrate or to divide your troops, must
be decided by circumstances.
17. Let your rapidity be that of the wind,
(The simile is doubly appropriate, because the wind is not
only swift but, as Mei Yao-ch`en points out, "invisible and
leaves no tracks.")
your compactness that of the forest.
(Meng Shih comes nearer to the mark in his note: "When
slowly marching, order and ranks must be preserved"--so as to
guard against surprise attacks. But natural forest do not grow
in rows, whereas they do generally possess the quality of density
or compactness.)
18. In raiding and plundering be like fire,
(Cf. SHIH CHING, IV. 3. iv. 6: "Fierce as a blazing fire
which no man can check.")
is immovability like a mountain.
(That is, when holding a position from which the enemy is
trying to dislodge you, or perhaps, as Tu Yu says, when he is
trying to entice you into a trap.)
19. Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and
when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.
(Tu Yu quotes a saying of T`ai Kung which has passed into a
proverb: "You cannot shut your ears to the thunder or your eyes
to the lighting--so rapid are they." Likewise, an attack should
be made so quickly that it cannot be parried.)

[Daemon]

Edit: Crap. In the five minutes I spend writing this post, three other people say the exact same thing. Ah, well. I guess the only thing I can add is that Parson had 27 B-dwagons, enough to have stacks of five in three hexes and stacks of four in the other three. So no reason for a three-dwagon hex (as if TRAP wasn't obvious).

Okay, Don't know if someone mentioned this, but there are SIX dwagons in one of the hexes (the one closest to the column) if you count all the little color dots as dwagons.

[Flakey]

so ansem's forces come out, punch into the thing, they find it empty. what do they do? turn the heck around, get out of the circle, and the only good it would have done would be that the A dragons would not get killed off.

Its why the "weak" spot is at the back. The infantry sent to attack the three dragons can not just move back. Ansoms mobile force sent into the center can retreat, but where too? If he goes back to the column. Parts of it are still vulnerable, and so are the forest elfs. He covers the forest elves, and all the column is vulnerable. Its a lose/lose situation for Ansom at that point.

what i would have done, is hold a reasonable size of dragons back out of combat, and made the fort around them, possibly leaving one of the three warlords with them after the main attacks to give them a leadership bonus.

so, ansem punches through right, walks on into the center hex, and gets bombarded by many powerful and full health dragons instead of the weak and dying dragons they'd hoped for

How many is reasonable? You have 46 dragons total. 27 of which were the slow moving ones. That leaves 19........ How many of these 19 counts as a reasonable reserve that could seriously harm an attack Ansom can throw in. To make your strategy work, your left with not enough dragons to actually harm the column in the first place.

[Thayus]

I wonder if Ansom will bother bringing any warlords besides himself? He, personally, probably has enough move to get back to the column, even if the Gumps etc. don't. He might just lead a bunch of sacrifices.

Or he might assume that the Dwagons will sit still once all their leadership is gone.

-Thayus

[Renx]

Just a comment... will Ansom be in the actual attack, or just via a dummy? Because the Arkenpliers would require that :/

[Overdark]

Now, he has an uberpowerful stack of units that are quite close to air units that have no warlord with them and are vastly inferior numerically and combat-wise. I think he does not have a lot to worry about in terms of getting attacked.

Of course Ansom doesn't have to worry about his own ultra powerfull stack getting attacked. 25 to 1 advantage, DUH. Parson isn't the kind of guy who goes after the big win. No Warlord in their right mind wants to have a "Fair" fight. It's all about hitting them where they are weak. He's going to simply destroy the rest of the Siege Equipment, then (Tunnelers?) then go after anthing else that can threaten the dragons, then hide again. Rinse n Repeat.

[katyn]

That's alot of geekery... However, I'm not convinced, that battle will actually take place.

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You have been warned!

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I'm still into option, that Parson's plan involves Jillian bringing arkenpliers to the stack, after Ansom GIVES them to her, to let her personally croak these warlords, 'cause he doesn't want to risk his own life. Quick. Dirty. And clean. In this scenario, all dwagons will probably just burst on each direction to wreak havoc on the column but two or three to escort AP to GK. That would surely disband the alliance. Masterstroke, that will left Ansom nearly powerless. And opener for a new intrigue, involving Jillian's royality and some high-caliber quarrels over dominance in GK.

I seriously doubt that will happen considering what Ansom explicitly stated in the comic.

I'm pretty damn sure that the center hex has some dwagons there. The dwagons have an immense amount of move, 56+, but they had to travel all the way from Gobwin Knob. We know that the gwiffons have about 52 move, (impossible to say EXACT number since each unit may have random stats, experience levels, etc.). The current top gwiffons she has with her have only just enough move to get back to the center hex. Considering the fact that the dwagons had to fly all the way from gobwin knob and engage various stacks in the train, it becomes seriously doubtful whether they have enough move left to scatter themselves effectively and hide.

It's also pretty much impossible to try and hide the wounded A dwagons among the B dwagons. While it's true that the intelligence of the alliance is absolute crap, a dwagon with a dozen odd arrows sticking out of its back is kinda obvious. So only the full hp dwagons are in the outer hexes.

So I'm thinking that...

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Some new unforeseen ability is going to affect the battle. I'm leaning towards some special ability of the dwagons. There has to be a particular reason the different-coloured dwagons have been split up the way they are. Looking at the map, we can see that most of the stack are attempting to keep numerous different colours dispersed throughout. Some seem to be clumped in particular areas though. I don't know why they are but maybe it's important. In particular looking at the pink ones. They're spread out so there's one at the back and three in the nearest hexes. Maybe their bubble gum ability has a another use in combat....

[Beren One-Hand]

I'm not sure how its going to play out once the trap's sprung, but there is one guaranteed casualty... Parson's ability to fully capitalize on surprise. While not as bad as having the enemy realize you've broken their codes, it can still be devistating if the Alliance has the move and the realization to react appropriately.

Once the dust settles and the surviving Alliance warlords set how the trap was placed so precisely to use up the counter attacker's move it should become clear that Stanley's side can see alot more than them. Since they know that the units who will do the mop-up job weren't scouted, there are only two posibilites to cover Stanley's wealth of Intel.

1) He can see all (Or damn near enough of it to count)
2) There are traitors within the ranks relaying Intel back to Stanley

It seems unlikely that they'll conclude 2 since that would require many traitors to relay enough info about the column, or one high placed one. Jillian is the only suspect, but she just returned so she doesn't know enough about the current possitions yet to have relayed the necessary info.

That leaves the conclusion that Stanley's guys can see exactly what is happening and the brains to react to it. From here on I'd expect a consolidation of troops to prevent any expoilts from unknown territory, and a much more through scouting regimen before any other moves are ordered.

[Scientivore]

It's also pretty much impossible to try and hide the wounded A dwagons among the B dwagons. While it's true that the intelligence of the alliance is absolute crap, a dwagon with a dozen odd arrows sticking out of its back is kinda obvious. So only the full hp dwagons are in the outer hexes.

Your statement about how much the bats could tell about the dwagons is currently unsupported. The A dwagons were shot from below while attacking from above and then the wheel rim dwagons were seen from above while nestled in the trees. Also, the only detail that Vinny reported about them was their color.

[benthehater]

Some thinkin':

I doubt Ansom would lend the Arkenpliers out. While it isn't explicitly stated, I think it's worth considering that Stanley began his rise (which is Ansom's key objection to him) after discovering his attunement to the Arkenhammer. If Ansom hands the Arkenpliers over to Jillian for the purpose of dusting uncroaked Warlords, there's a possibility that the Arkenpliers could attune to Jillian, leading to some splendid problems like, "Okay, good job, now give those back," & "No way, the Titans clearly intended for me to wield them, since I have become attuned to them," & "Are you disobeying orders?" & "My right to these comes from a higher authority." & etc.

Which, admittedly would be a pretty interesting developement, but "interesting" enough that Ansom would only give up the Arkenpliers from his cold dead hands (or at least ko'd). Or maybe, just maybe, a moment of pure desperation, that he'd probably regret later even if it worked.

[katyn]

Your statement about how much the bats could tell about the dwagons is currently unsupported. The A dwagons were shot from below while attacking from above and then the wheel rim dwagons were seen from above while nestled in the trees. Also, the only detail that Vinny reported about them was their color.

Actually if you look at page 50, you can see both the pink and green dwagon in the last panel have at least one arrow each sticking out of their backs , enough of a giveaway. And this is just one attack wave. Damned if I know what happened at the other ones but I presume similar damage would have been dealt.

The alliance would also be paying close attention to any weaknesses in the formation of dwagons. They're looking for any weak point in the formation and wounded dwagons would get an obvious notice form them. Vinny is a good warlord and I doubt he would not report such important information.

[Devoured_Dude]

One thing I forgot to mention; while we can debate the importance of capturing/croaking Ansom versus destroying the siege units, from a story perspective it seems unlikely that Ansom will come to any harm just yet (it would be anticlimactic for a story that, from all indications, is has only progressed 2/3s through.)

Far more likely, from a story telling point of view, is the idea that Ansom is sitting in the heavy forest, realizing that he had been baited to the spot, tricked again as the "Winning Engagement" reports begin to filter in once more during Stanley's turn.

Yes, totally agree. Although now you're seriously meta-gaming the situation.

At worst, Ansom would be captured and then it would be up to Jillian to rescue him! Switcheroo!

[Devoured_Dude]

The consequence of that is it all but forces Ansom to make his main attack through the tunnels. While the Gobwins get good underground bonuses (and are cute, too), it will elminiate the advantage the dwagons give him.

Shouldn't the marbits have started their feint by now? They were going to break off early in the original plan, and I don't recall that had been scuttled yet.

Ah yes, the tunnel gambit...

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If Parson were truly sinister, he'd meet the tunnel assault with uncroaked soldiers (led by uncroaked warlords) then draw Ansom's forces deep into the tunnels. Why? Uncroaked don't have to eat, right? I bet they don't have to breathe either. Fill the tunnels with smoke, green dwagon gas or even water. Flawless victory!

[rosebud]

how many times must i repeat this argument before people get it?

*comfort* (Hey, can you soften the Star Wars silliness while you're at it? =)

[galdon]

Its why the "weak" spot is at the back. The infantry sent to attack the three dragons can not just move back. Ansoms mobile force sent into the center can retreat, but where too? If he goes back to the column. Parts of it are still vulnerable, and so are the forest elfs. He covers the forest elves, and all the column is vulnerable. Its a lose/lose situation for Ansom at that point.



How many is reasonable? You have 46 dragons total. 27 of which were the slow moving ones. That leaves 19........ How many of these 19 counts as a reasonable reserve that could seriously harm an attack Ansom can throw in. To make your strategy work, your left with not enough dragons to actually harm the column in the first place.

actually 19 are good move, but that does not mean the 27 cant attack, and if they cant attack, you can put those 27 into the base hex. the reason the 27 having low move is important is because they cant get back home in the same turn they left.

[Bilgore]

However, my only problem with this idea is the question of where he put the wounded dwagons if that hex is empty.

Very simple.

Spoiler

Show

They're hiding right next to the column. Ansom's fliers will end their turn nearly a full turn's movement away from the column after they attack the "fort".

Lord Hamster intends to hit the column again without having to travel a long distance first, enabling him to take out the rest of the siege units. When his turn is nearly over, he moves away from Ansom's fliers and ends his turn in forest or mountains. This puts him in a position where the fliers and forest units can't move far enough to reach him in one turn, and the other units can't attack him.

The B dragons simply fly away from Ansom's fliers to regroup, and on Parson's 3rd turn he can focus all the dwagons (A and B) on Ansom's fliers. this 3rd turn is very costly as far as dwagons are concerned, but it reduces Ansom's future attack options to tunnel combat only.

edit: ninjaed!

[gatitcz]

Something about this plan is bugging me.

No matter how you slice is, Ansom is sacrificing whatever units he sends into that party platter, since next turn there are a hell of a lot of angry fully healed dwagons waiting to tear them to shreds.

Ansom's doing this to croak the warlords as much as the dwagons. Without the warlords, they can't selectively engage siege, and the army will have a better chance at Gobwin Knob.

But you are wrong in your beliefs on targeting. Jillian ended turn in the trees, but this shows her giving orders to the Orlies during Stanley's turn. We can thus surmise that a Commander unit can direct his stack in battle regardless of whose turn it is.

Doesn't prove much. Jillians's directing the ORLYs in the battle. She needs time to solo the blue. Eventually, though, it seems she would have to fight all the dragons. She didn't selectively choose not to engage them, she just organized the engagement.. She wasn't able to fly away or hide without fighting.

[SteveMB]

Once the dust settles and the surviving Alliance warlords set how the trap was placed so precisely to use up the counter attacker's move it should become clear that Stanley's side can see alot more than them. Since they know that the units who will do the mop-up job weren't scouted, there are only two possibilities to cover Stanley's wealth of Intel.

1) He can see all (Or damn near enough of it to count)
2) There are traitors within the ranks relaying Intel back to Stanley

It seems unlikely that they'll conclude 2 since that would require many traitors to relay enough info about the column, or one high placed one. Jillian is the only suspect, but she just returned so she doesn't know enough about the current possitions yet to have relayed the necessary info.

That leaves the conclusion that Stanley's guys can see exactly what is happening and the brains to react to it. From here on I'd expect a consolidation of troops to prevent any expoilts from unknown territory, and a much more through scouting regimen before any other moves are ordered.

I'm not sure that follows. We don't know a lot of details about the exact composition and deployment of Ansom's forces, probably less than Stanley would know by now even without the Eyemancers, and yet we've written a nine-pages-and-counting thread about how the trap is (presumably) going to work.

That said, some future clue (or present clue I've overlooked) might tip the Coalition to Stanley's omniscient-eye intel capability. When they sort through the implications of that, they're almost as bad for Jillian as the suspicion that she's been personally passing along all the information -- as I noted earlier, the whole capture-escape-lather-rinse-repeat history is completely incredible (in the literal meaning of the term) if she's been repeatedly escaping from an enemy who can see the location of every unit on the battlefield.

[Beren One-Hand]

I'm not sure that follows. We don't know a lot of details about the exact composition and deployment of Ansom's forces, probably less than Stanley would know by now even without the Eyemancers, and yet we've written a nine-pages-and-counting thread about how the trap is (presumably) going to work.

Ah... but could we make such a thread before seeing the actual layout/composition of Ansom's forces and the surround terrain, and have it accurate enough to actually have the trap work with such precision?

[OnDroid]

And we got enought clues.

First of all : Stacks without leader are forced to autoattack when in contact with units from non-allied capitals.

So Vinnie's bats were forced to autoattack the dwagons and I think that should let him know their (full) health status. Plus If Ansons ends in the middle hex he will be autoattacked by all surrounding dwagon stacks next turn. Did he forget about that or is there something missing? Or you can pull back out of your turn with no move left (which I doubt)?

In 53 The Battle for Gobwin Knob, Page 47 parson said : "Than's gonna add a whole new dimension to this plan." + "For almost no cost." While he planned the dwagon attack to be all-out success, that word ALMOST is suspicious. (Plus the "For an opener" ) Cause he could fort few more hexes away from the collumn (one would be enought probably ... remember "That'll eat up about all of our remaining moves, boss. )

So there are two main reasons, why this middle hex is clearly a trap.
1) all the listed clues.
2) If it's not a trap Anson would kill 3 warlords + great score of dwagons, Parson gets disbanded by furious Stanley the Tool and the comics ends.

[TheTurnipKing]

I'm not sure that follows. We don't know a lot of details about the exact composition and deployment of Ansom's forces, probably less than Stanley would know by now even without the Eyemancers, and yet we've written a nine-pages-and-counting thread about how the trap is (presumably) going to work.

That said, some future clue (or present clue I've overlooked) might tip the Coalition to Stanley's omniscient-eye intel capability. When they sort through the implications of that, they're almost as bad for Jillian as the suspicion that she's been personally passing along all the information -- as I noted earlier, the whole capture-escape-lather-rinse-repeat history is completely incredible (in the literal meaning of the term) if she's been repeatedly escaping from an enemy who can see the location of every unit on the battlefield.

They can't all the time. The Eyemancers obviously have downtime, as evidenced by the fact the eyemancers weren't linked when Parson first went to the war room.

[TheTurnipKing]

One thing I forgot to mention; while we can debate the importance of capturing/croaking Ansom versus destroying the siege units, from a story perspective it seems unlikely that Ansom will come to any harm just yet (it would be anticlimactic for a story that, from all indications, is has only progressed 2/3s through.)

From a drama point of view, however, a capture would give Parson and Ansom a chance to meet face to face, it would deliver one more of the Arkentools into Stanley's hands and he could potentially be ransomed for a significant strategic advantage, be it shmuckers, a complete withdrawal from GK, extra units...

In all probability you're right, but don't rule out the value of capturing Ansom.

[slb]

Plus If Ansons ends in the middle hex he will be autoattacked by all surrounding dwagon stacks next turn. Did he forget about that or is there something missing?

"when in contact" mean "in the same hex", that's how all TBS games work and I expect Erfworld too.
So the B dwagons have no reason to attack the central hex unless ordered to move there.

[OnDroid]

"when in contact" mean "in the same hex", that's how all TBS games work and I expect Erfworld too.
So the B dwagons have no reason to attack the central hex unless ordered to move there.

Hmm ... right (that might explain the explored hexes shape in Fog of war). But still it's either pretty confident or risky move for Anson to stay in the middle hex. (cause he probably doesn't have enough move to escape back ... by Vinny's comment)

Oh well ... we shall see soon enogh.