[Spoiler] Parson's real plan

[jimrandomh]

Ansom is planning a counterattack against Parson's platter-of-doom. He's going to use his fliers and forest units to try to get to the center hex, where the wounded dwagons are.

Or are they? Attacking the platter is going to be very costly, but it will be worth it for Ansom if he gets to croak the wounded dwagons. Page #56 shows us Ansom's view of the map, and Ansom can't see the center hex. He assumes that's where the injured dwagons are, but he doesn't know; and while Parson originally planned to put them there, he changed his plan when he learned that Ansom suffered from fog of war.

The center hex is empty. Ansom will fight hard and sacrifice much to get there, but when he goes to claim his prize it won't be there. The "A" group is hidden deeper inside the forest, which, as we can see, Ansom has not explored. And since the platter isn't actually protecting anything, Parson can withdraw wounded units from it just like he did when he was attacking.

[TheEmerged]

Hmm, somebody run back to that Klog with the numbers of dragons and compare that to the number of dragons pictured on the map :D

[Moik]

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42736

Erfworld 52. Parson say six stacks of either 4 or 5 Dwagons.
The blow-up of the battle map shows four stacks of five, one of three, and one of six.

All defense-allocated Dwagons are accounted for. The only difference from planning and implementation is that one has been reallocated from the rearmost hex to the most forward.

[Nightgaunt]

I am with the "center hex is empty" group. It really depends on what exactly the bats can see. Clearly they do not have "line of sight" because they are eaten by the dwagons before detecting them. That means they actually have to be IN the square to detect enemies. Is that true for all creatures, I wonder, or is it only true in the case of creatures capable of hiding, like dwagons in a forest?

The other option, that the outer dwagons are the weak dwagons, only works if the Bats can not detect health of their opponent. In comic 49 we didn't see any stats appear on the Dwagon, all we had was bat*21 and then no bat.

I like tactical games, and if it were me. I would have the center square empty. I see no reason to allow my enemy to fight my best forces with his best forces. I would rather they make their weaker forces open for another fly by and head back to base.

I would think Parson's overall plan would go something like this.

1) Destroy all siege equipment before army arrives at castle.
2) Force enemy army to take land route to try and take castle.
3) Use natural defense of land route to lay waste to enemy.

The last thing Parson would want is the enemy all over the castle laying siege, just destroying the siege equipment becomes a huge tactical favor for Parson. Destroying some flyers certainly has benefit but he's probably better off saving his Dwagons and destroying the remaining siege units before a retreat...

[Kreistor]

Center hex has more than expected. Forest Archery units capable of shooting down the incoming air, and perhaps ground units capable of dealing with the ground forest units.

Parson only fought with dwagons this round. The locations of everything else in the army is unknown.

Remember, Parson said, "For openers" in response to what he planned this turn. What could be better than annihilating the cream of the enemy air corps and forest corps?

Yes, he may lose a few dwagons, but if he can remove the threat to the remaining dwagons (that is, air and archery), then his dwagons are invulnerable.

[Psychosomatic]

I don't think Parson would have moved his damaged units further into the forest for one main reason: if Ansom were to find an empty center hex, he'd use the remainder of the bats to scout for the wounded dwagons. This is especially bad if Ansom holds the gwiffons back until that point; Jillian would have little to no problem mopping up a lone stack of wounded dwagons. Relying on chance like that simply doesn't seem to be Parson's style... it's much more likely that he's interspersed the wounded dwagons in the ring, and there's a large stack of fresh dwagons in the center. Just because the unit bonus tops at 8 doesn't mean that all units beyond 8 don't get the bonus... and I'd hate to imagine 19 dwagons with a full stack bonus AND 3 warlord bonuses.

[jindra34]

I don't think Parson would have moved his damaged units further into the forest for one main reason: if Ansom were to find an empty center hex, he'd use the remainder of the bats to scout for the wounded dwagons. This is especially bad if Ansom holds the gwiffons back until that point; Jillian would have little to no problem mopping up a lone stack of wounded dwagons. Relying on chance like that simply doesn't seem to be Parson's style... it's much more likely that he's interspersed the wounded dwagons in the ring, and there's a large stack of fresh dwagons in the center. Just because the unit bonus tops at 8 doesn't mean that all units beyond 8 don't get the bonus... and I'd hate to imagine 19 dwagons with a full stack bonus AND 3 warlord bonuses.

So your saying Jillian + 5ish Gwiffon's > Ansom + all the forest capable units?
Wow i knew she was strong but not that strong...

[Psychosomatic]

She solo'd a 100% health blue dwagon, and quickly at that. I think she'd be able to make short work of near-death dwagons hiding out all by themselves.

[jindra34]

She solo'd a 100% health blue dwagon, and quickly at that. I think she'd be able to make short work of near-death dwagons hiding out all by themselves.

Are you not getting the 22:6ish number advantage... she soloed it when it was also soloing her... and she barely achieved that... thus i would guess she might be able to take out 1 before the rest take her out...

[Psychosomatic]

Ansom's comment also states that the units which can reach the center hex of the 'fort' are 5 gwiffons, Jillian, and the 3 Archons - this does not mean that there aren't further units with lower move which would be in range of the wounded dwagon stack.

[Freerefill]

Parson knows Ansom well. Know thy enemy is, of course, a key point in war. I think it's safe to assume that Wanda has informed Parson that Jillian tends to fly in with gwiffons, and if it's safe to assume that, it's further safe to assume that Parson knows that Ansom wouldn't put Jillian, 5 gwiffons, and his all-important Archons into a hex surrounded by 20 full-health Dwagons with high move, not to mention putting them face-to-face with 19 injured Dwagons and 3 warlords.

Safe to assume, then, that Parson knows Ansom is gonna attack with his forest units and not let Jillian anywhere near the party platter of doom. Further, I'm willing to bet that Parson weakened that hex to let Ansom in. I agree with the original poster: the center hex is empty, the A dwagons are far far away, and those B dwagons are just lying in wait for some forest units to pile in before getting their nom on.

I think the only thing Parson hasn't counted on is Ansoms Arkenpliers and how they deal with the uncroaked. Could the Arkenpliers throw an arkenwrench into Parsons plan, or are the uncroaked Warlords safely far and away with the injured A dwagons? Further to consider is the wild card known as Jillian. She's never been one to obey orders. It was said that she wanted to return to the column. She wants to get there ASAP and will probably go right ahead regardless of what Ansom says. She may just happen to stumble upon a feast of Dwagons ripe for the killing. If she does.. there goes half of Parsons party platter of doom.

[Wonton]

Don't forget that we know nothing of the archons' powers. In fact, this would be a good time to reveal just what they can do... but for all we know, they could be powerful enough to take out 22 Dwagons.

[Fuzzy_Juan]

That center hex does invite attack in such a way that you can pretty much guarentee it is a trap of some sort. Ansom is not a complete fool however...he is underestimating Stanley's tactical ability, so he doesn't think that someone is laying an ultimate trap...just that their tactics were good and pose a grave threat if allowed to selectively engague next round. They know it is necessary to sacrifice units to punch through the Dwagon fort and even delay the column if it means taking out those wounded Dwagon's and the warlords.

So...what is the plan...well, by leaving the rear hex open, Parson pretty much guarenteed that Ansom would have to waste units probing the circle to find the weak point. If he just charged in, it would have been a disaster and while some Dwagon's might have been killed, it would have been really bad for Ansom's forces...By trusting Ansom to attack the rear, he forces his units to expend their move to the limit so that he forces his units to move where he wants them to be.

So...one of the first rules of strategy...force your opponent to move where you want him to be...check...he knows Ansom will commit his forces to attack the rear hex and gather his troops...So...if you know where your enemy will gather their best units and attention...what is the next step? Simple...be somewhere else and exploit their distraction.

The hex has to be empty...or if not empty...something that will keep them occupied for a bit and force them to stay. It is unknown if he plans to collapse the fort and assault the party that attacks the center hex, or to disperse for another attack...since there are no warlords that we know of with the ring of dwagons, unless the other two get in for the party start of next turn, we can assume that the dwagons in the ring will just bug out or be used for a massive assault. After all, if they cannot selectively engague, they will need to sledgehammer the units in their path in order to move on. I think that if the wounded dwagons are not there, that they have moved to a different spot to blindside the column, or have gone to attack the towns of the Alliance to cut off their supply.

Ansom has done one thing very smart though...Jillian is being kept in reserve...once they enter that center hex, she will either come in as reinforcement as needed, save their ass if necessary, or cover them and react to finding out the hex is empty...

If Dwagons can 'hide' effectively...what if the large stack is actually right in front of the front hex? The Warlords can keep them from attacking, and since the army will attack the rear, you have a huge force effectively hidden in plain sight...hmmmm....

[ClericofPhwarrr]

Getting to the rear of the dragon fort will, as the Count said, take most of Ansom's move for that turn. If Ansom punches through the three dragons at the rear of the fort and advances to an empty center, he could find himself without move and wounded, surrounded by dragons. Then, on Stanley's turn, Parson could have ALL the dragons (A and B) attack the forces lead by Ansom, instead of the seige.

Cut off the head and the snake will die. With Ansom gone, the alliance against Stanley could crumble.

[Moik]

Epiphany Poutine

Wow, you brought up alot of good points. I have a feeling Jillian-in-reserve will end up being a route to reprieve, then drama will ensue from the control. But reminding us that Jillian and the Archons can still get there afterwards is a good point.

[Freederick]

Don't forget that we know nothing of the archons' powers. In fact, this would be a good time to reveal just what they can do... but for all we know, they could be powerful enough to take out 22 Dwagons.

Evidently Ansom doesn't think they are: "...only she and five top gwiffons, plus Charlie's Archons, have the move..." (Erfworld 56, panel 9.) He mentions them as almost an afterthought to the gwiffons. That doesn't sound like he is overawed with the Archons' kickarse factor.

...since there are no warlords that we know of with the ring of dwagons, unless the other two get in for the party start of next turn, we can assume that the dwagons in the ring will just bug out or be used for a massive assault. After all, if they cannot selectively engague, they will need to sledgehammer the units in their path in order to move on.

There are six hexes of "B" dwagons in the ring. One of them is the sacrificial hex--that leaves 5 hexes. Now, Parson has 5 uncroaked warlords. I think it is quite possible that the five hexes of dwagons are not uncommanded--that there is a warlord in each, and no warlords with the wounded dwagons, which are recuperating somewhere else. In this way, the "B" dwagons would not be forced into melee when their turn comes.
Of course, this hinges on one thing--is it possible for a warlord to be hidden in a hex, and not be seen by a bat that enters this hex? Foolamancy, perhaps?

[Kreistor]

I think it is quite possible that the five hexes of dwagons are not uncommanded--that there is a warlord in each, and no warlords with the wounded dwagons, which are recuperating somewhere else. In this way, the "B" dwagons would not be forced into melee when their turn comes.

The Count lost six bats attacking each of those hexes and got the knowledge of what is there. If a Warlord were in any of the outer dwagon hexes, they would already know. That is, after all, why he sacrificed them.

I don't think it's possible that the wounded dwagons and warlords are anywhere but in that center hex. They aren't discussing it as if there's any other option, so it is probable that either:

a) they accounted for the dwagons' Move and know they couldn't have gotten much further away
b) you can only Move so far after withdrawing
c) attacking uses up some portion of Move

[Moral Wiz]

Look at the first pannel . You couldn't see the warlords, even if they were there. It would be child's play in a game, to make a rule, that gigantic creatures, like Dwagons, hide smaller creatures in the same hex, if the hez is of a perticular kind (forest for instance)

[SauroGrenom]

I really seriously doubt that dwagon units can "hide" or have "stealth". That would be some kind of special ability added to a particular unit type (like poison or regeneration), and dwagons are not likely to have that ability. Perhaps gobwins would have "stealth", but not dwagons. So I highly doubt that there is any hidden units in the hexes that Vinny has scouted. Real world physics and our real world sense of what's reasonable doesn't apply to this "game world" with game rules to govern everything.

Also we've seen that units display damage in obvious ways. The wounded dwagons after the dwagon attacks, Jillian after the torture, and Webinar's cloth golums all have scratches or other obvious signs of "damage". Vinny would be able to spot that through his bats.

I'm in the camp of people who think the donut has an empty hole.

Also I don't think Ansom is in any serious danger of getting croaked next turn. He has his flying carpet, and he was thinking of going with those guys to "rescue" Jillian. So he must have a fairly large move himself. Even if his troops are out of move and stuck in the donut hole, Ansom ans some of his warlords will probably have enough move to escape.

The wounded dwagons may be less wounded than Ansom assumes, and they are probably hiding some other place outside in the fog of war. There may be some kind of ground infantry or even better archery that Parson is using to protect his wounded fliers.

[shakes019]

I don't believe that the dwagons are rules-required to attack the centre hex next turn. My interpretation of 'in contact' with enemy units is 'in the same hex as' enemy units. I believe that Ansom's strike force will push through the 3 dwagons to get to the centre hex and find it empty and then the dwagons will fly off and harass the column, probably taking out the rest of the siege units.

[Notelrac]

Here's my tactical analysis of Parson's placement. My assumption is that units (whether escorted by warlords or not) have no Zone of Control (ZOC). Ie, a unit can freely move past another unit without triggering an attack of opportunity. Further, combat takes place when a unit enters the hex of a unit on the opposing side.

(We know an attacking unit escorted by a warlord attacker can voluntarily retreat. An interesting question is whether a defender can retreat, and whether either attacker or defender can retreat when there is no warlord present.)

Given that, I'm inclined to side with the "It's a trap!" school, because Parson is "the perfect warlord" and has perfect intel. He had the time to study the map. He knew exactly where Ansom, Ansom's warlords, Ansom's flying units, and Ansom's forest-capable units are, and how much Move they had at the start of his turn.

Look at the map. Parson could easily have put his party platter further into the deep woods. He would have gained perfect safety for his wounded dragons, at the cost of a few less siege engines destroyed. Instead, he deliberately placed the platter close enough to the enemy's troops so that they could be quickly discovered.

So, I expect total pwnage. Parson spent the night looking at the map, and calculated exactly how much force Ansom could apply to any given hex. Putting those three dragons on the far side was his equivalent of waving a cape in front of an angry bull.

My prediction is that this scenario will be over at the end of Parson's next turn. Yes, Ansom will kill three dragons. But tomorrow morning, Parson captures/kills Ansom and the other leaders, seizes the Arkenpliers, and the alliance against Stanley collapses.

[CNagy]

Or Parson ignores Ansom completely, and attacks the column now mostly devoid of defenses (forest-capable units are elves, among whom there are also archery units,) and rides it home safely to Gobwin Knob while Ansom has a stroke from all of the "Engagement Victory" reports coming from the column. It may be Stanley's goal to acquire the Arkenpliers, but Parson's goal is to win the Battle for Gobwin Knob.

[Kreistor]

Look at the first pannel . You couldn't see the warlords, even if they were there. It would be child's play in a game, to make a rule, that gigantic creatures, like Dwagons, hide smaller creatures in the same hex, if the hez is of a perticular kind (forest for instance)

In most games of this type, when someone attacks your hex, all units in that hex must defend themselves and consequently are revealed to the enemy. You can't choose not to defend. That's why they threw bats at the outer six hexes. This revealed all contents of those hexes, so the warlords can't be in those.

If the warlords could hide, they could be in any of the seven hexes, not just the center one.

[Scientivore]

Or Parson ignores Ansom completely, and attacks the column now mostly devoid of defenses (forest-capable units are elves, among whom there are also archery units,) and rides it home safely to Gobwin Knob while Ansom has a stroke from all of the "Engagement Victory" reports coming from the column. It may be Stanley's goal to acquire the Arkenpliers, but Parson's goal is to win the Battle for Gobwin Knob.

That's a good point. I don't know about the Gumps but the Woodsy Elves are half of his elven archers (the others are the Shady Elves). So yeah, the siege units will have less cover without them. Ansom must destroy the three warlords -- which is probably the strongest argument of all for Parson playing Shell Game instead of Purloined Letter.

[DudeGolem]

Ansom needs to take out either - the warlords, or the wounded A dwagons to prevent annihilation of his siege units next turn. Preferably both with minimal losses, but just the warlords would do to prevent more selective destruction. At this point it seems he will destroy the rear dragon hex and attack the middle hex. He could attack with himself and whatever he brings, leaving Archons and Zamussels as back up in case he fails: because he is a warlord himself, he could selectively engage the warlords, destroy them, and retreat. Or, retreat entirely if the center hex is a trap (leaving whatever he brings stranded with too few move to escape, most likely. Thats not good for the coalition). Because of this, lets hope that Parson doesnt have those warlords in that center hex, no matter what he has planned: even if they are defended by healthy dwagons, its possible Ansom could take out the warlords and cripple Parson's next turn.
Which means either I'm missing part of selective engagement rules (maybe because they are riding the dwagons...) , or Parson could be in serious trouble. My guess is that there is an unknown factor at play here, be it another unit type or some spell. The empty hex idea could potentially leave time to scout out the missing dwagons and warlords.

[Nightgaunt]

hmmm... Another quick thought.

Some people have mentioned the idea of an empty hex allowing time for scouting out the remaining dwagons. The forest units that punch around the back will use up most of the remaining move. At which point the main force will attack what they think is the wounded dwagons. If that space is devoid of any creatures Ansom has already used up his forest creatures move to attack the spot he thought would lead to the dwagons.

Even if his bats could scout, he won't have enough move left with the rest of his army to attack the dwagons if they were on another Hex.

So I suspect even after Ansom discovers the Empty Hex he won't have enough critters left to scout and attack dwagons somewhere else. Just a theory of course.

[DudeGolem]

I agree that, if the center hex is empty and Ansom wastes his forest capable move getting there, Parson is, probably, in the clear. However if this is the case, it is likely that they are nearby, and relatively unprotected. He has Jillian and the Archons on backup: if he has time to scout out the surrounding forest and can send them in, that could be trouble.
And as sheer opinion, I feel like Parson isnt the type of guy to take the risk of his units being stumbled upon by accident. If all that is the case, maybe they are far enough away that once Ansom finds the obvious 7hex formation he wont think to look farther.

[ag30476]

My prediction is that this scenario will be over at the end of Parson's next turn. Yes, Ansom will kill three dragons. But tomorrow morning, Parson captures/kills Ansom and the other leaders, seizes the Arkenpliers, and the alliance against Stanley collapses.

That would be brilliant stroke by Parson but awful writing for the authors.

Ansom has proven more resourceful than many imagined. Ansom with Vinny's advice escaped the trap set with Jillians release. He formed a new alliance with Charlie and Charlie's Archons escorted Jillian to her present location. And despite the "fog" of war, it seems that Ansom and his commanders have figured out in a short time what we as readers were told by Parson was his original plan.

We have to wait of course to see what happens at the end of this turn but I think Ansom will prove as resourceful as he has so far, which is a good thing.

Because as much as I want to see Parson win, I want to see the "good" guys to win. But more than that, I want the game to be exciting to watch. Entertain me!

[Thrawn183]

This really gets at what has confused me the whole time. We know that gobwin knob is ludicrously outnumbered and that even though the dragons are powerful, they can still be taken down by the ewoks.

I was really confused as to why Parson was going to be leaving his dragons out in the open when chances are they could probably ALL be overrun (healthy and unhealthy) by sheer weight of numbers. Now I see why.

I was also confused because that hex formation looks good at first inspection, but stinks in a turn based game. Any time you have to split your defensive units over 6 different positions its because you don't have enough forces to finish on the offense, and that means that being split 6 ways there is no way you can survive on the defense. Might work if a stupid AI was in control that just attacked everything indiscriminently, maybe but even so, it just didn't add up. Now I understand the second part of the plan! Who wants to start betting on the third? Or maybe some guesses on what units from Gobwin Knob would have been capable of reaching that center hex?

[Kreistor]

I was also confused because that hex formation looks good at first inspection, but stinks in a turn based game. Any time you have to split your defensive units over 6 different positions its because you don't have enough forces to finish on the offense, and that means that being split 6 ways there is no way you can survive on the defense.

Unless there is a stacking limit and only X number of units can be in a hex at one time. You'll notice Ansom is spread out far and wide too.

And it's also a problem if the attackers get to assign their damage to wherever they want. If you stack healthy units and damaged units, the damaged untis get annihilated anyway, since the enemy chooses to assign damage to those first.

There are many possible rules that can limit this kind of warfare.