Barnyard WW

[Meta]

Well this is looking like a quiet day. Let's make some noise in the barn.
Quick disclaimer: I'm assuming the bandwagon behavior around Eggel to be largely uniformed. While he was a wolf, the Seer or Devil would have needed to tag him night 1 for anyone to know this. Possible, but not probable. It's something to keep in mind but it gets less weight than killing a connected wolf, imo.

Reads:

Ramsus: Most vocal about axl's plan being bad and snippets here and there. Voting record is unremarkable. Could use a little more analysis to move him out of neutral.

Duck999: Too quiet. From what I know, Duck is usually quiet until pushed and then is pretty talkative. Hopefully you consider this a push because you've added very little (though admitted it.) You did lynch Eggel, but you bandwagoned at a pretty safe place. Pretty neutral here too.

S_I: Is he playing? I guess it would be roleplaying with his name. The one (and only) thing that irks me a bit about GitP WW is that total silence for the first few days is a legitimately solid strategy for wolves in this meta. S_I has played enough to know that. Wolf lean.

Phantom: Voted Day 1, but not Day 2. If something has come up, let the thread know, but until then, wolf lean.

Ellena: Contributing, discussing, and pressuring, a reasonable amount and so as long as the trend continues a town lean seems appropriate.

thematthew: Why is a mason getting lynched on Day 1 a sign Pelican is a wolf? Do you have a role that somehow knows the wolves started with information? Neutral.

Pelican: Unflappable () in the face of votes. Usually a town trait but not the hardest to fake and it's not his first rodeo. Neutral.

Lex-Kat: I think we have the same train of thought about how the Eggel wagon went. Town Lean.

AvatarVecna: I feel like his posts are just a little bit too defensive. He had a couple of votes, yes, but that was a high % of his content. That makes me a little suspicious. Wolf lean.

Penguinator: His play reminds me heavily of a game years ago when we were both in a town network. It has the same... "let's get a handle on what's happening here" feel to it. Probably my strongest town lean.

axl: Ramsus is kinda right, we need positive contribution. Even if you meant well, a rookie Seer or Mason may have taken your 'bait' and that would hurt us. Give us a reason to want to have you around. Neutral.

Syldar: Wishy-washy mid level bandwagoning and no fluff or elaboration.

[Syldar]

Well this is looking like a quiet day. Let's make some noise in the barn.
Quick disclaimer: I'm assuming the bandwagon behavior around Eggel to be largely uniformed. While he was a wolf, the Seer or Devil would have needed to tag him night 1 for anyone to know this. Possible, but not probable. It's something to keep in mind but it gets less weight than killing a connected wolf, imo.

Reads:

Ramsus: Most vocal about axl's plan being bad and snippets here and there. Voting record is unremarkable. Could use a little more analysis to move him out of neutral.

Duck999: Too quiet. From what I know, Duck is usually quiet until pushed and then is pretty talkative. Hopefully you consider this a push because you've added very little (though admitted it.) You did lynch Eggel, but you bandwagoned at a pretty safe place. Pretty neutral here too.

S_I: Is he playing? I guess it would be roleplaying with his name. The one (and only) thing that irks me a bit about GitP WW is that total silence for the first few days is a legitimately solid strategy for wolves in this meta. S_I has played enough to know that. Wolf lean.

Phantom: Voted Day 1, but not Day 2. If something has come up, let the thread know, but until then, wolf lean.

Ellena: Contributing, discussing, and pressuring, a reasonable amount and so as long as the trend continues a town lean seems appropriate.

thematthew: Why is a mason getting lynched on Day 1 a sign Pelican is a wolf? Do you have a role that somehow knows the wolves started with information? Neutral.

Pelican: Unflappable () in the face of votes. Usually a town trait but not the hardest to fake and it's not his first rodeo. Neutral.

Lex-Kat: I think we have the same train of thought about how the Eggel wagon went. Town Lean.

AvatarVecna: I feel like his posts are just a little bit too defensive. He had a couple of votes, yes, but that was a high % of his content. That makes me a little suspicious. Wolf lean.

Penguinator: His play reminds me heavily of a game years ago when we were both in a town network. It has the same... "let's get a handle on what's happening here" feel to it. Probably my strongest town lean.

axl: Ramsus is kinda right, we need positive contribution. Even if you meant well, a rookie Seer or Mason may have taken your 'bait' and that would hurt us. Give us a reason to want to have you around. Neutral.

Syldar: Wishy-washy mid level bandwagoning and no fluff or elaboration.

We share an opinion on Avatarvecna, he seems a bit too focused on defending himself. But 1: I just thought eggel was suspicious because he said vecna was "off" with no reasoning, then never posted afterwards to defend himself, and 2: how does lack of fluff make me suspicious?

[AvatarVecna]

I guess to just avoid complete silence I should place a vote on somebody.

Spoiler: Thoughts so far

Show

Ramsus (Very Weak Wolf Lean)
Maybe it's just I haven't been playing in awhile, or I'm remembering wrong, but I seem to recall Ramsus tending to be at least a little bit more vocal than what's been going on here. Don't really have a lot to go on, but this (possibly?) ooc reserved playstyle makes me a bit nervous of them. Getting a bit more from them would be helpful.

Duck999 (unsure)
Not really sure what's going on with Duck, if anything, but there's nothing in particular to make me suspicious of them (the late-jump on the wagon is very minor, at least in my eyes since a lot of people did that).

Silent_Interim (unsure)
Really need more from them to get a read at all. Honestly, I'm tempted to vote them just to see how (if?) they defend themselves from accusation; silence is terrible for town, it gives us nothing to work with, and lets wolves hide all to easily behind the excuse of apathy.

ThePhantom (Wolf Lean)
Old habits die hard: ThePhantom's chronic silence from game to game makes them incredibly hard to read, and I almost always suspect them of being a wolf. Other than that...*shrug*

Elenna (Town Lean)
Seems fairly helpful so far; they might just be sticking with the "wolf in sheep's clothing" thing here, but if they are they're doing ti very well, and it'll take a better player than I to catch them.

Thematthew (Weak Wolf Lean)
I'd like a bit more out of them, and what they have posted just seems to rub me the wrong way, although I can't put my finger on why...

Pelican (Weak Town Lean)
I'm still not sure about Pelican, but they didn't seem to really crack under pressure, which is a point in their favor.

Lex-Kat (unsure)
They switched off of Eggel near the end of the day, but it was an attempt to form some kind of counter-wagon to gain more info from the lynch. Not sure what to think of this, but hopefully more data will emerge...

AvatarVecna (Weak Wolf Lean)
As is usually the case, AV is either being a terrible townie or a terrible wolf, and either way they're not very helpful to town. Unless they manage to provide something of worth, they should probably be lynched just to check. Best case scenario, it can be part of a counter-wagon, and we can learn something from it.

Penguinator (Town Lean)
They're coming across fairly trustworthy, at least to me; not quite as strong as Elenna, but still.

axl (weak wolf lean)
Any vote here would be an OMGUS vote based on the terrible claiming plan that could've wrecked things for town; I want to check them out, but I don't think doing so is a priority ATM.

Syldar (unsure)
Not really getting much off of them so far; some more in-depth analysis, or gut feelings, or something would be helpful.

Rather predictably, my strongest wolf lean is ThePhantom, but that's probably just me being my usual paranoid self in regards to them, so...Ramsus! Let's hear a bit more out of you, hmm?

[ThePhantom]

About why I have been quiet, I just got a new game and have been playing it a lot.

Silent_Interim

[Silent_Interim]

Oh yeah, this is a thing.

I apologize for my silence, but I don't like to clutter the thread with my thoughts before I think they're valuable.

I'm somewhat busy with stuff just now, but I'll do my best to get some substance out there when I have some time. Hopefully that'll be in an hour or so... hopefully.

[Duck999]

Didn't realize it was already so late into the day. I have indeed been participating less because I have a lot of work to do for school. Tomorrow morning, I will drop some thoughts and a vote (if I have time for deeper analysis I will), and I will try to get on later if possible.

[Elenna]

Yeah, it's really hard to analyze the Eggel bandwagon at all seeing as nobody actually knew his role.

Also, FYI, I started a new job today and I'm not going to have anywhere near as much time as I did in the last few days.

Quick summary of my reads because I really need to go to bed soon:
Meta, Penguinator, Pelican and Ramsus (in descending order of towniness) are helpfully giving analysis.
I really want to hear more from Duck999, Silent_Interim, ThePhantom, Thematthew, Syldar. That is a depressingly long list.
Would also like to hear more from Lex, but not to the same extent as the above, and what she's been posting seems reasonably towny.

axl has been doing a lot of stuff which I would suggest are wolfy in a more experienced player - not putting their vote in red on D1, suggesting the mason reveal themselves, a long post about Eggel which doesn't really come to any conclusions and ends with him not voting for anyone D2. All of these can easily be explained by the fact that it's their first game, though.

AvatarVecna seems somewhat defensive. I like the analysis in their most recent post, but why are they voting for Ramsus when they have a stronger wolf read on Thematthew?

[Duck999]

As I said, I have been incredibly busy. After Friday I should have much more time to analyze. For now, I'll see what I can do.

Spoiler: Day 1 Votes

Show

Ramsus: Duck999
AV: Ramsus
Meta: Luizeu
Luizeu: Meta
Thematthew: Pelican
Norman: BoP
Pelican: BoP
Duck999: Ramsus
BoP: Pelican
SI: Thematthew
Eggel: BoP
Luizeu: Pelican
ThePhantom: Thematthew
Syldar: Duck999
Elenna: AV

This isn't the most useful information, but it was really easy to do, so I recorded it anyway. All I can really gather from this is who we know is safe to not be a mason.
Norman was killed that night. He had been on the BoP wagon, so that is probably a randomly picked kill.

Spoiler: Day 2 Votes

Show

Ramsus: Pelican
Meta: Elenna
Luizeu: AV
AV: Pelican
Eggel: AV
Elenna: Pelican
Peng: Luizeu
Luizeu: Eggel
Peng: Eggel
Lex: Eggel
AV: Eggel
Duck999: Eggel
Syldar: Eggel
Meta: AV
Pelican: Syldar
Elenna: Eggel
Lex: Syldar
Thematthew: Pelican

Luizeu was killed at night.
This was possibly because Luizeu became a dangerous player, finding a wolf so soon.

The most suspicious thing that was happened so far is probably the landslide for Eggel. I'm going to say that out of the bandwagoners, Syldar is the most suspicious. Minimal idea adding along with the bandwagoning onto what he probably thought was an easy escape for the wolves. Elena, who also joined the bandwagon fairly late, seems to be adding much more though.

((Please correct any of my info if I'm wrong. I'm kinda tired right now.))

[Thematthew]

@Meta: A mason being lynched increased the chances that the counter wagon was a good target, because unless we're in a situation where the masons are acting foolishly it takes a bit of concentrated effort to lynch on day 1. Since Luizeu turned out to be a regular sheep and Eggel turned out to be the disconnected wolf this tells me that the masons are acting foolishly since they could have easily deflected the wagon even if there were only 2 of them, as duck, Ramsus, and myself all ended the day with 2 votes on us.

@AvatarVecna: My low level of participation is once again due to my being at work most of the time (approximately 40ish hours out of every 4 days), so... yeah...

Honestly though, I really don't have any reads right now, but I can agree that AvatarVecna's vote for Ramsus seems a little weird based on his leans...

[Pelican]

Can't say anything has changed from yesterday concerning my read on Syldar. Lex's post seems weird to me too, but I want to get a better handle on why. Much like Duck, I'll be able to be a lot more active in this game after this week is over and I'm through with classes, so stay tuned.

[Ramsus]

Been a bit preoccupied, sorry. Don't really have a lot to say that hasn't been said by others. AvatarVecna's vote for me strikes me a bit weird too, since if it was just a questioning thing... he could have just asked. Not like I have a history of ignoring questions or something.

[AvatarVecna]

AvatarVecna seems somewhat defensive. I like the analysis in their most recent post, but why are they voting for Ramsus when they have a stronger wolf read on Thematthew?

I have several weak wolf reads. The weakest is the one on Ramsus, but the only reason Ramsus is suspected at all is because they've done something that's legitimately puzzling me (being quieter than I remember them being in previous games); the others are just an uneasy gut feeling. More to the point, I want information, and I thought that of the people I currently suspect, the one most likely to be able to offer good info would be Ramsus...but if they were being quiet this game, they would need a push to do so.

But I can see which way the wind is blowing now, so...Syldar, even though I'm not really sure what to think of them ATM.

[Disc Lorde]

Day over. Results and narration to come shortly.

[Disc Lorde]

Day 3 End

The flock woke up to find another one of their number missing. The ghost of the fallen sheep bleated on the wind. "Avenge me, baaaa."

The mother sheep jumped up on the feeder again. "Baaaa! Another one of us is slain. If we cannot protect the flock then you can be, baaaa, sure that we'll avenge it! Let us find the baaaad guys responsible!"

The sheep began what had now became a daily ritual, milling around, pointing hooves, and bleating. In the middle of it all, Dave the old ram tried again to perform a quick headcount.

"One, two...uh, excuse me, you're in the way. Three, four...baa, could you all scooch a bit, I'm trying to count. Baa, wait, why are you all looking at me? Fellas?"

AvatarVecna was killed. They were a sheep.

Missed one day:
Lex-Kat
Penguinator

Spoiler: Players List

Show

Name	Died?	Role
Ramsus
Duck999
norman250	Night 1	Donkey
Silent_Interim
Eggel	Day 2	Fox
ThePhantom
Elenna
Luizeu	Night 2	Sheep
Thematthew
Pelican
BasketOfPuppies	Day 1	Chicken
Lex-Kat
AvatarVecna	Day 3	Sheep
Penguinator
axl
Meta
Syldar

Night 3 now begins and ends in 24 hours. Get your actions in.

[AvatarVecna]

Welp, I died sooner than expected. Good luck, everybody who isn't a wolf!

[Lex-Kat]

Oops. Sorry guys. I got distracted by life. I was thinking I had another day to post.

[Disc Lorde]

I'm going to be away from the computer so I'll be a bit late in ending the night phase today. As usual, you all have until I officially end it to send in your actions.

[Disc Lorde]

Night over. Results and narration to come shortly.

[Disc Lorde]

Night 3 End

With his coop-mate gone, the remaining chicken decided it was time to get out of dodge, figuratively speaking. Tonight was the night that he would make his escape. He was equipped with an eggbeater that senile old Farmer Brown had left out in the barn.

Using the eggbeater, the chicken tunneled under the coop and kept tunneling, under the fence and beyond, until he deemed he was far enough away. He broke through to the surface and looked back at the barn as he walked away from it. In this way, he walked straight into the Clever Wolf.

"I rather like this one. Still, dinner is dinner."

Penguinator was killed. He was a Chicken (Mason).

Spoiler: Players List

Show

Name	Died?	Role
Ramsus
Duck999
norman250	Night 1	Donkey
Silent_Interim
Eggel	Day 2	Fox
ThePhantom
Elenna
Luizeu	Night 2	Sheep
Thematthew
Pelican
BasketOfPuppies	Day 1	Chicken
Lex-Kat
AvatarVecna	Day 3	Sheep
Penguinator	Night 3	Chicken
axl
Meta
Syldar

Day 4 now begins and ends in 60 hours. Get your actions and votes in.

[Lex-Kat]

Damn it!

Okay, I'm all for pressing Thematthew a little.

The great lord Ar-En-Gee has spoken to me, and claimed that Pelican, being a bird, cannot in fact be a sheep.

I'll try to put together an RP post later.

As per usual in GitP WW games, (sorry, Meta) day 1 votes don't count for much until you try to piece them together much later. He was the first one to vote for Pelican that day, so we can't say he was trying to sway any votes.

Spoiler: Day 1 votes

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Votee	Voter 1	Voter 2	Voter 3
Duck999	Ramsus	Syldar
Ramsus	AvatarVecna	Duck999
Luizeu	Meta
Meta	Luizeu
Pelican	Thematthew	BasketOfPuppies	Luizeu
BasketOfPuppies	norman250	Pelican	Eggel
Thematthew	Silent_Intern	ThePhantom
AvatarVecna	Elenna

So, as much as I may be dismissed as tinfoil hat wearing and all, I think Pelican is probably a good choice today based on the fact that a mason was lynched instead of him. That's incredibly fishy to me, and believe me when I say I know fish.

This is interesting to me. He knows fish? This could easily be a tell that he's a wolf. A giggling in the face of danger kind of tell. But also it is the second day he's voted for Pelican.

But it's not just that. He voted at the end of the day, for a relatively safe target. AvatarVecna and Elenna had both moved off Pelican by this time, so it was only two votes to four, in favor of Eggel.

This day is also when I become suspicious, and continue to be, of Elenna and Syldar. They both jump on the Eggel wagon late, Elenna after Penguinator asked that we give Eggel a chance to speak up, and Syldar votes in dark red. In most games (not sure how Disc_Lorde ruled on this), but Dark Red is a no-no. It doesn't stand out as easily as Red, so it's possible for the narrator to miss it, as well as other players.

Spoiler: Day 2 votes

Show

Votee	Voter 1	Voter 2	Voter 3	Voter 4	Voter 5	Voter 6	Voter 7
Pelican	Ramsus	AvatarVecna	Elenna	Thematthew
Elenna	Meta
AvatarVecna	Luizeu	Eggel	Meta
Luizeu	Penguinator
Eggel	Luizeu	Penguinator	Lex-Kat	AvatarVecna	Duck999	Syldar	Elenna
Syldar	Pelican	Lex-Kat

@Meta: A mason being lynched increased the chances that the counter wagon was a good target, because unless we're in a situation where the masons are acting foolishly it takes a bit of concentrated effort to lynch on day 1. Since Luizeu turned out to be a regular sheep and Eggel turned out to be the disconnected wolf this tells me that the masons are acting foolishly since they could have easily deflected the wagon even if there were only 2 of them, as duck, Ramsus, and myself all ended the day with 2 votes on us.

@AvatarVecna: My low level of participation is once again due to my being at work most of the time (approximately 40ish hours out of every 4 days), so... yeah...

Honestly though, I really don't have any reads right now, but I can agree that AvatarVecna's vote for Ramsus seems a little weird based on his leans...

Now maybe, maybe, it's just coincidence, but notice that the first three voting for AvatarVecna are...

Spoiler: Day 3 votes

Show

Votee	Voter 1	Voter 2	Voter 3	Voter 4
Syldar	Meta	Duck999	Pelican	AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna	Syldar	Elenna	Thematthew	Ramsus
Ramsus	AvatarVecna
Silent_Interim	ThePhantom

Ramsus (Very Weak Wolf Lean)
Maybe it's just I haven't been playing in awhile, or I'm remembering wrong, but I seem to recall Ramsus tending to be at least a little bit more vocal than what's been going on here. Don't really have a lot to go on, but this (possibly?) ooc reserved playstyle makes me a bit nervous of them. Getting a bit more from them would be helpful.

Elenna (Town Lean)
Seems fairly helpful so far; they might just be sticking with the "wolf in sheep's clothing" thing here, but if they are they're doing ti very well, and it'll take a better player than I to catch them.

Thematthew (Weak Wolf Lean)
I'd like a bit more out of them, and what they have posted just seems to rub me the wrong way, although I can't put my finger on why...

Syldar (unsure)
Not really getting much off of them so far; some more in-depth analysis, or gut feelings, or something would be helpful.

And two of the four voting for him were considered suspicious by AvatarVecna. But I'm getting a strong feeling from the other two as well.

And now that I've gone through all that, I'm a lot more suspicious of Syldar, actually.

[Thematthew]

Wow, I just got suspected and exonerated at the same time...

I can't really see the fish comment being a wolf thing. It was more a throw away line, so to speak. I do point out, after all, the disconnected wolf has been killed.

Syldar does seem to be attracting a lot of attention though...

[Lex-Kat]

Oh, you're not exonerated, just merely less suspect. You still have an Orange Finger of Doom on you, Thematthew.

[Syldar]

Lex, the dark red was a mistake. I misclicked and didn't see a problem with the color. Anyway, now I know not to do that.

On to my analysis, Lex-cat is acting pretty suspicious. 1) She's using my vote color as reason to kill me. (That may be more serious than I think, but again, it's never come up before for me.) 2) She's suspicious of all 4 of the sheep who voted for Vecna, despite him being seen as suspicious by quite a few of analyses, including his own. (Not sure why he added that though.) She's even suspicious of his town lead, Elenna. The day is young though, and there is still time for votes to shift. Just remember: Don't be sheep! Wait...

[Meta]

Based on behavior, Syldar, thematthew, and axl seem the most wolfish to me.

Syldar for the same reasons as yesterday, but he does seem to be a little more open to discussion today. On the downside, he's trying to lynch the person voting for him and who's looked pretty town to me. Syldar, what do you think about some of the other players? Give us a little commitment somewhere.

thematthew is totally blase. If he had lynched a connected wolf maybe that would be enough to get a pass.

axl, your history does not look too good to me. Misunderstanding at the beginning of the game seems reasonable, and you do follow up with some reasoning to lynch Eggel, but I don't really like that wagon, your place on it, or how you've disappeared since.

If you're a wolf, the progression makes sense to me. You get called out early, inexperience to blame probably, and then try hard to contribute to the first wagon you see and it's not a (known) wolf ally and thus 'safe.' I could see fellow wolf prodding or your own impetus here. When that goes not so well, you hide, as yesterday was nothing but a fluff post. I like reading people's flavor but it's not a substitute for content. Given your claimed experience with other games of the genre, I think it's possible we're seeing someone struggling to blend in with only some of the tools.

I will admit you can just come in and post that you were busy or some such thing and that's a perfectly reasonable alternative to my theory, but if you were, make up for it now with a list of your own thoughts on people.

Based on lack of behavior, both Phantom and SIare suspicious to me. Posts #94 and #95 are of little value. I would pleased with competing wagons of the above three posters, but these two make excellent fire drill targets if we have a late day claim.

[Duck999]

So my being busy is just about over. I have to go soon, but I should have more time tomorrow. For now, I will stick with Syldar.

[Ramsus]

I find myself more or less in agreement with Meta, aside from thematthew, and I've already stated my unwillingness to lynch axl right now without a reason of more substance so that leaves me with Syldar.

[Elenna]

@Lex: Granted, there were arguments for not putting another vote on Eggel, but there was still a reasonable amount of time before the end of the day. I figured I was pretty definitively going to check the site again, and if he said anything convincing I could switch to someone else. If this game had a hammer vote I definitely wouldn't have done it. Also, I couldn't really think of anyone else I was anywhere near as suspicious of.
Also, how likely is it that four wolves all voted on the same wagon yesterday? (Especially since there are only three more wolves )

Pretty much what everyone else has said about Syldar lines up with my thoughts. But you know what, this time I think I'll avoid putting another vote on the biggest wagon and go for axl instead. Reasoning is the same as what I said yesterday and what Meta said today.

Silent_Interim is also a good target if we need to CFD. SI, where's that substance you mentioned a few days ago?
ThePhantom is pretty much acting the same as usual as far as I can tell. He's mildly suspicious, but not as much IMO as the other people I mentioned.

[ThePhantom]

The sleepy sheep awakes and looks around the barnyard.

"Did I miss something, or is Syldar up to something?"

[Thematthew]

Meta, I was not claiming that I should get a pass because I helped lynch Eggel. That would be wrong on two parts: 1) Nobody but eggel knew he was a wolf and 2) I didn't help lynch Eggel.

I was pointing out that reading "I'm a wolf" from my fish comment is basically the same thing as calling me Edward Nigma, because I'd have to be crazy to add commentary that has no purpose but to be a clue to me being a wolf in my comments.

[Lex-Kat]

Then you'd the Theriddler, not Thematthew.