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Thread: Erfworld 64, Page 58
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2007-06-27, 12:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Avatar: ruthless Parson (Erfworld).
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2007-06-27, 12:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Of course I'll probably be proven wrong on this, but I doubt the center hex can be a mountain, or indeed anything else but heavy trees. The reason is simple: Ansom already knows which units have the move to reach the center hex - how could he know what the movement cost is to reach that hex without knowing the terrain type? For that matter, how can any Erfworld unit ever move without knowing the terrain type of the hex they're about to move into? In almost every wargame, different terrain types have different movement costs, sometimes even depending on who's moving. Further, we know some hexes are going to be prohibited outright (solid water hexes for land units, for example).
One of two cases must apply: either Ansom has a complete base map of the terrain (not the units in that terrain, of course), or units can at least see the terrain type of adjacent hexes (if not their contents). Even if it's the latter case, Ansom knows the terrain type of the center hex, since his Woodsy Elves (and Vinny's bats) have already been in a hex adjacent to it.
One more thing: if the center hex is indeed a mountain, then there is no purpose to sacrificing the dwagons in the weak hex. Only the forest capable units can reach them anyway, so all that would accomplish is to pit three dwagons against all of Ansom's forest-capable units. Why would Parson do that? He'd just use the dwagons to reinforce more accessible parts of the ring, or maybe even use them to beef up the weakened dwagons in the center hex.
Has anybody considered that Ansom is probably making a huge mistake by attacking the weak hex? However strong three off-color dwagons are, why not hit one of the hexes with four or five dwagons, where you can do it with more troops? That also gives those troops a route into the center hex (since it's a shorter path, they don't need as much move to reach it). Sure, your losses in the punch-through will be higher, but you'll kill a couple of extra dwagons and make the assault on the center hex much stronger.
BTW, it MUST be the case that Ansom has the forces to whip even six full-strength dwagons in a frontal assault. If he can't, then Parson wouldn't need to bother with this doughnut strategy at all - he could simply stack eight dwagons in each heavy forest hex, in perfect certainty that Ansom's forces would get clobbered trying to kill them. Stanley can't be that strong - if he is, then the siege of Gobwin Knob is doomed right now, because Parson can simply cycle dragon eight-stacks (fly out and hit siege, retreat to heavy trees) until Ansom is wiped out. No, the column is burly - it has the strength to kill those dwagons, even in the trees, or hit-and-run tactics wouldn't be necessary.
Given that, if I were Ansom I never would have screwed around with the weak stack. I'd have frontal-assaulted whichever of the close hexes let me penetrate into the center hex with sufficient strength after wiping up the defending dwagons.
Finally, the terrain can't be altered, say by burning down the forest. If it could be, then Ansom is a total idiot, because the obvious solution is to remove the heavy trees between his non-forest-capable units and those pesky dwagons.
The center hex is heavy trees, and I'm thinking it's empty. Further, we've seen conclusive evidence that Zones Of Control (ZOCs) in this game extend only into the hexes actually occupied by units - if they didn't, Vinny's bats couldn't have gotten a look at the weak hex, because they necessarily had to move adjacent to one of the other dwagon stacks to reach it (note that they didn't observe the hexes surrounding the other approaches to the weak hex - they're still covered by fog).
Ansom's got the forces, and he's not worried about being surrounded. If that center hex is empty, then Parson's plan is probably to whack the rest of the siege and return to Gobwin Knob with the dwagons in return for virtually no losses. And that "virtually no losses" is a key, because he's supposedly outnumbered 25-1.
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2007-06-27, 12:47 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
This is speculation, but aren't units usually more vulnerable to somekind of attack? As an example, those trees to fire based attacks.
If that is a case could there be a leader ordering not to attack and wait untill massive attack. Then stack of reds with warlord attack tree based enemies. I think that there are colors for reason and parson knows what units Ansom have. Thus he knows with what units Ansom can attack dwagons. Attackers known means defense can be planned beforehand.-- &&Life is strange and so am I...
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2007-06-27, 12:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Not really. Ansom is bringing in sufficient forces that Stanley would have to be an idiot to attack them in such a way as to leave his dwagons there to be attacked in the NEXT turn. Even if Ansom falls for the "trap", he's surely going to move his fliers and any other troops in such a way that any dwagons that attack his stack will be toast in the following turn. That's why Parson won't attack the center hex - he'll go out and hit the column again.
This is all an elaborate trap set up not to kill Ansom, or even kill a lot of his units - it's there to draw him out of position, and leave the column vulnerable for a second strike - and this time, the dwagons will retreat to Gobwin Knob and there will be no danger of destruction.
If the center hex does NOT contain all three warlords, you guys realize that Ansom has already lost all of his siege, right? It doesn't matter if the 19 "A" dwagons are there or not, the warlords must be, or Ansom is toast. Consider that if they're not there, Parson will have 24 full-strength "B" dwagons to hit the column with and then fly to Gobwin Knob, which is a stronger attack than he had the first time. All of the siege will die. This is why the "anti-Wanda" at Ansom's war council said that this turn's losses will seem small.
Everybody has apparently been crediting Ansom and Vinny with reasonable strategy so far. Obviously not. This is a giant exploitable game mechanic. Parson may be brilliant, but any experienced wargamer would have taken Ansom apart, due to the faulty placement of his units in this easily-attackable column. The proper method would have been for Ansom to have a slow-moving "doughnut" of his own, with the siege at the center, slowly advance toward Gobwin Knob. That way no hit and run would really be possible - all the dwagons could do would be to pick off pieces of the outer doughtnut.
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2007-06-27, 12:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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2007-06-27, 12:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
They can't retreat. If they could, Zamussels would never have been captured. It'd be impossible to catch a non-surrounded stack. In fact, if you could withdraw as a defender, then (a) Ansom is already doomed, because the 19 "A" dwagons in the center hex will merely withdraw to the hex already containing six full-strength "B" dwagons and that will be that; and (b) Ansom would never have lost the siege towers in the first place, because they'd have withdrawn (battle bears were attacked first, remember?).
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2007-06-27, 12:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Has anybody considered that Ansom is probably making a huge mistake by attacking the weak hex? However strong three off-color dwagons are, why not hit one of the hexes with four or five dwagons, where you can do it with more troops? That also gives those troops a route into the center hex (since it's a shorter path, they don't need as much move to reach it). Sure, your losses in the punch-through will be higher, but you'll kill a couple of extra dwagons and make the assault on the center hex much stronger.Last edited by TiamatRoar; 2007-06-27 at 12:59 PM.
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2007-06-27, 12:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
-- &&Life is strange and so am I...
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2007-06-27, 01:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
They have lakes, presumably.
As for why that particular hex? Barring any special 'terrain' feature of that hex, I would presume because Parson just chose it. No particular reason why he chose that SPECIFIC hex; he just had to choose a hex surrounded with enough heavy woods to limit any alliance counterattack to specific unit types.
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2007-06-27, 01:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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2007-06-27, 01:04 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
If (1) is true, then scouting is worthless. It's also highly unlikely that units actually engaged in combat would be unaware of what was in the hex they're actually in - in game terms, how would you even know how to resolve the battle, because you can't know the odds? Consider what happens if there are fifty dwagons in that hex and the bat "wins" the battle. Now it "occupies" a hex with all those hidden dwagons... is it forced to attack again? Can it retreat, even if it used up all its move to get to the attack?
I'll be SHOCKED if the weak hex contains anything other than exactly one purple, one yellow, and one pink dwagon. And if it does, when the Erfworld board game comes out, I'm sure going to be able to kick ass at it.
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2007-06-27, 01:12 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
I suspect the center hex is indeed empty. The drama will come when Ansom and what's left of his forces are stranded in the woods having run out of move. Parson will want to finish off the siege engines, but Stanley will want those forces to get the Arkenpliers from Ansom. Parson will argue that his exploit is the only way to save Gobwin Knob, but Stanley will insist on getting the pliers. That's next week's drama.
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2007-06-27, 01:13 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
I've got a theory, and I don't think it bodes well for the "goodness" of the good guys.
We can assume that Ansom, while seemingly the "Dashing, Yet Shortsighted Prince", isn't stupid. We've seen him discuss tactics, as well as assemble what appears to be, in game terms, an impressive alliance of a vast variety of tribes, and assume leadership of it. He's no Parson, but to assume he's gone this far by luck alone would be delusionary.
So, here's what I think we have confirmed, relevant to Ansom's plan and this theory;
1. Ansom intends to attack the center hex.
It's been theorised last page, and confirmed now; everything but the bats {who are crap in combat} is dedicated to breaching the fort formation. Considering the trouble three dwagons alone caused, we may assume that the maxed stack will proceed in the same formation toward the center hex in order to obliterate the wounded dwagons he expects to be occupying it.
2. After the attack, the excursionary force will have little to no move left
This has been pretty much spelled out by Vinnie. While there's been some debate whether there was some implicit exclusion regarding the warlords' mobility, the "our" in that line sounds very all-encompassing. Not "the units' move" or "the force's move". "Our" move.
That leaves the very real question of what happens after the excursionary force takes the center hex? Regardless of the massive blow that would deal to Stanley's dwagon reserves, considering that punching even through six dragons was considered a less preferrable option to expending all mobility in order to conserve forces, the likelihood of surviving an attack by twenty-seven fully healed dwagons collapses to a Planck value.
The reasoning behind this seemingly and very uncharacteristically suicidal attack became apparent the minute I considered one possibility;
Not a single non-warlord unit in the excursionary force is expected to survive the next turn.
It's not a coincidence that Jillian was left behind. That fact alone, that regardless of her considerable combat value she wasn't included in the assault was suspicious enough. Thus, let's consider two more points;
1. Jillian's gwiffons have a major move value.
So much that eight move is considered negligible, or at least not significant.
2. The move value of a mounter rider is determined exclusively by the mount's move ability.
Jillian isn't a reserve force. She was left behind with one purpose and one purpose only - to take her gwiffons in order to meet with and return the warlords to the relative safety of the column. Any forest units that survived the big fight Ansom expects to have in the center hex are croaked one way or another. The turn ends with the majority of Stanley's forces lost, no warlord losses and only a sacrifice of forest-capable units who are likely to be of little value in a mountain fortress siege.
Counterplanning
We can also assume that Parson has considered both his and Ansom's options as well; we have it more or less confirmed that Parson is familiar with "playing the enemy". Thus, we can assume that he's already considered the options Ansom will have available and, considering the confidence he's shown, it's very plausible that the situation itself was engineered with the express purpose of giving Ansom only one reasonable course of action. Offhand, I can think of a couple of possible scenarios, all benefiting Stanley's side and of varying degrees of "win2, depending on a few hitherto unknown factors.
Scenario 1: Jillian refuses to evac Ansom & crew, takes the Gwiffons and makes for the Knob instead.
We have it from a fairly reliable source that she won't croak Ansom on command. However, she might be persuaded to simply not prevent him from being croaked by other means. Tenuous, but possible.
Subscenario 1a: Archons can carry passengers.
With the expected evac suddenly becoming unavailable, Ansom's survival at the end of his turn becomes a very serious problem. His only ride out becomes the Archons, whose stats and abilities are mostly unknown. In any case, the dwagons, unharmed by virtue of Not Being There heal, ignore the forest units and continue to wipe out the rest of the siege units and any other targets of preference.
Subscenario 1b: Archons can't carry passengers.
The only viable use for them in that turn is to attempt to outrun and eliminate Jillian. However, whether their move is higher or not, there's nothing to prevent Parson from using the same preferrential attack tactic to croak Ansom, snag the pliers and use one of the warlords to take them back to the Knob.
Scenario 2: Jillian evacs Ansom & Co.
No major losses in the leadership department, but Ansom's side has lost an entire turn to a decoy, allowing the Dwagons to hit the rest of the siege and fly back for the home game.
Either way, each and every one of the scenarios I can think of give Parson a significant tactical advantage at the cost of three dwagons; unless there's some sploitable mechanic in place that will allow him {has allowed him?} to preserve them as well.
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2007-06-27, 01:14 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
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2007-06-27, 01:14 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
I was wondering when someone would point this out. Winning the siege is more important than killing the leaders. Why bother stopping with siege? Almost every unit in every hex in the column cannot attack the dwagons. You take out all the siege, and then if you have enough move, start killing tunnel fighters. If Ansom can't get over or under the walls he might as well go home.
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2007-06-27, 01:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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2007-06-27, 01:16 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
If Parson put all his dragons and warlords into one hex instead of protecting the warlords and weak dragons with a doughnut, then Ansom could just go into that hex with a bunch of forest capable units and warlords, SELECTIVELY croak Parson's warlords using his own warlords, and call it a day. No warloards = Parson's strategy is booped. Victory!
Last edited by TiamatRoar; 2007-06-27 at 01:16 PM.
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2007-06-27, 01:18 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
No. The outer ring could be flying units that can end their turns in the trees.
A very interesting question is whether only forest-capable units can actually enter a forest hex. Obviously they can't attack fliers there, but being totally prohibited from entering the hexes at all? I'm thinking that "non-forest-capable" means "no attacking fliers in woods, and paying an extra movement cost for entering them". Possibly woods-capable units also get a bonus of some kind. I think it unlikely that woods are prohibited completely to non-flying, non-forest-capable units.
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2007-06-27, 01:19 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
To Airshark: I'm glad to see some one else popping the silly theories but could you try and not attack the ones that are actually pausible?
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2007-06-27, 01:21 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
You've got to remember that Jamie and Rob are doing this paper book style in a web medium. Part of what this means is that a two page spread of the combat between Parson's 'I have an evil plan' look and "Pop goes the evil plan" takes us at least a week to get through. It's a sad fact of cross media works.
Scott Sava over at Dreamland Chronicles commented on this a while ago. He uses Text variations to distinguish speakers, but for one of the characters in Book 4, he used a different font at first for the web comic. He stated afterwards (whne he changed it back) that for someone reading through book 4 the color and style of the font as they take 20 minutes to read a dozen pages might not cause a 'lightbulb' moment to remember we've seen this font/color combo before. But in the three weeks that web readers have to pick over the pages, they're going to recognise, and comment on, the re0use, and then you lose some of the surprise over who the speaker was when you finally see his face.
The only real solution for this, and it suXX0r big time, is to not read the comic more than once every two months. That way you get a 16 page block, with no waiting. In fact, if you get time, go back now and re-read the first 46 pages in one sitting. You'll find the pacing a lot better than it was the first time through.help me beat on my friends - Follow the Link!
http://world4.knightfight.co.uk/?ac=vid&vid=96101065
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2007-06-27, 01:23 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
I just realized something....units will auto attack adjacent hexes without a warlord...
If Anson enters the center hex, and it's empty, five hexes of dwagons will be forced to attack him...
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2007-06-27, 01:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Your argument that Ansom has poor strategy because he failed to use fliers as a protective doughnut can not be proven because all of the fliers flew off to rescue Jillian. How do you know that Ansom wasn't already using them as a doughnut before he gave that command? Given that the fliers were there to give the column "air cover" (a tactic that Jillian herself acknowledges when she realizes she needs to get back to the column immediately), odds are very good that that was exactly what the fliers were already doing. Providing air cover to PROTECT the units (siege and everyone else) from dwagons. IE, a doughnut (or something similar enough to it)
Also, odds are very good that forest at the very least SLOWS DOWN any non-flying unit. So any large doughnut formation is very unwieldy because some units will have their move slowed down compared to others. I highly doubt Ansom would be able to cram ALL the land forces into one hex on the road.
Parson never said "Adjacent hex". He said "when in contact with". That implies when you move onto the SAME hex, not ajacent hex.Last edited by TiamatRoar; 2007-06-27 at 01:25 PM.
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2007-06-27, 01:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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2007-06-27, 01:38 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Uh-uh. Why not make the hex that you max-stack in the one that only the forest-capable units can reach (the current "weak" hex)? I'm not saying anything about where the wounded dwagons are. Why not just back the doughnut up one space, which eliminates the need to defend its rear at all (since nobody can reach the center hex in that case) and make the front-facing stacks all strength five or better? This leaves room for reinforcement of the wounded dwagons with the spare dwagons in case Zamussels and her gwiffons want to come to the party.
Dwagons are strong. They can't be THAT strong, or Stanley's not really in much danger.
Of course, how strong are the Archons? Are they all Charlie is bringing to the party? They might be macho indeed, you know, in which case Ansom's choices just got a lot better. What if the Archons can kill 19 wounded dwagons unassisted? What if Jillian, the Archons, and five top gwiffons are sufficient to be the primary attacking force on the center hex? Ansom might make out OK after all.
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2007-06-27, 01:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
So, are we going to get as many comments about Ansom's rear end as we did about Wanda's?
Oh, and does anybody still doubt the "run" sounds were the carpet-bike?Last edited by Pyrian; 2007-06-27 at 01:43 PM.
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2007-06-27, 01:46 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Simple. Not enough move.
"We surmise that the attacking dwagons had low remaining move."
Why not make the hex that you max-stack in the one that only the forest-capable units can reach (the current "weak" hex)? Because Parson couldn't move his A-dwagons that far.
Haven't you ever played a military strategy game before? Haven't you had TONS of moments where you said to yourself, "DAMMIT! If this stupid unit only had a little more move, I could have withdrawn him to a safe spot!"
Of course, Ansom did say "we SURMISE". Hence what will likely be his fatal error. He THINKS Parson didn't have enough move. But it does explain why Parson would (theretically) need a doughnut formation. His dwagons SUPPOSEDLY (at least this is what Ansom thinks) didn't have enough move to go back any farther than that.
You can't "back that doughnut up one space" if you don't have that one extra move remaining to do it!
Already been done during the comic where Ansom was briefing everyone else about the overall plan.Last edited by TiamatRoar; 2007-06-27 at 01:48 PM.
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2007-06-27, 01:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
If the center hex IS empty, I'll be pretty put off. Sure, Parson knows Ansom doesn't have Lookamancers, but Parson's "attack" stack didn't have much move left and Vinny seems to have an almost endless supply of bats. It seems (from looking at the map) that Ansom has scouted everywhere the Dragons MIGHT be, and the only hex he definitely doesn't know about is the center hex defended by the "circle of Dwagons."
Parson just landing his Dwagons and Warlords, unprotected, in some random hex while hoping that Ansom would get distracted by his doughnut and not scout the surrounding territory would have been completely and fatally STUPID. A smart general (which Parson apparently is) won't risk his entire battleplan on the chance that his opponent might be a moron. :P If Ansom, IS such a moron, I'll be pretty surprised (as "Planning" is one of his strengths).
Why is everyone rooting for Stanley's side, btw? Stanley is an incompetent and a conglomeration of all the worst bosses I've ever had. I'd love to work for Ansom. How can you possibly be rooting for Stanley to win?Wishes come true . . . not free.
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2007-06-27, 01:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
Why? If my arguments are correct, then those theories aren't any more plausible, are they? Which ones do you think are really plausible? For myself, I see only three:
1) The center hex really has all 19 "A" dwagons plus the warlords. In this case, Parson is probably going to trade 22 dwagons and three warlords for a HELL of a lot of Ansom's units, and maybe some of his leadership. Combined with 40+% of the siege (maybe more if the retreating "B" dwagons can hit some targets of opportunity), I'm going to call this a win for Parson, though not overwhelming. This is also the best possible case for Ansom. Big trouble if Jillian turns traitor, though.
2) The center hex contains full-strength "B" dwagons, the "A" dwagons and the warlords being dispersed throughout the ring. Very, very bad for Ansom. If, as I surmise, Zamussels' stack will be committed to the attack on the center, he's going to lose Charlie, Jillian, five gwiffons, and a bunch of his forest-capable units in return for a few dwagons. The rest of the now unwounded dwagons will wipe out the rest of his siege.
3) The center hex is empty, and the "A"s are hiding (possibly in that near "fog" hex, which will be instantly fatal to Ansom if true). Ansom rushes into the ring, and ends his move. Wow, is he screwed. Two subcases: he leaves the "weak" hex occupied by something, or he rushes into the center with everything. If he rushes into the center with everything, it's game over, because the 19 "A" dwagons can now encircle him. If he was worried before about being able to beat a score of dwagons, wounded - well, now he definitely gets to fight them, and they'll be unwounded. Note that the dwagons don't have to attack him - they can simply surround him, and he'll have to attack THEM in fortified territory. Or they can just flap off and whack the column. If he leaves the hex occupied, then I expect Jillian and the Archons to be rushed into that hex to hold open a retreat route for Ansom. Not because it's a great military tactic, but because it'll make for a great series of strips - Jillian fighting a savage rearguard action, desperately holding open the door home for her commander. Which brings me to...
What if Jillian turns traitor? She might not kill Ansom, but what if case (2) or (3) above applies, her services are needed to save the day, and instead she bonks Webinar? Or, Titans forbid, the Archons? She's got five top gwiffons to do it with, and a surprise attack, too - and she almost drew on Webinar already, right? Game over, dude.
The more I think about it, Parson's intelligence advantage, combined with the mobility and strength of those dwagons, is so decisive that Gobwin Knob is probably going to pull this one out pretty handily. I wonder what the next scenario will be? Stanley lost ten cities - will he try to regain them, or perhaps he'll go after the ArkenMelonBaller or whatever the other Arkentools are?
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2007-06-27, 02:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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2007-06-27, 02:12 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Erfworld 64, Page 58
All this argument falls to the ground on the simple fact that if the dwagons didn't have enough move to back up one space, Parson had another option: choose a hex slightly closer to Gobwin Knob as his base. Note that your assumption also means that the "A" dwagons are in fact in the center, since they don't have the move to be even one hex further away.
Or, you could shave with Occam's razor and make a much simpler assumption: that Ansom does have the troops, but just made an error.
Of course, as has been pointed out already, Ansom has already shown that he's not the brightest bulb because he left his column without air cover to rescue Jillian. That might be partly offset by his not realizing that Stanley has perfect intelligence, not to mention Parson making use of it.