An Enemy Spy Reads The Wheel of Time II: Randy's Horny Hunt

[Ninja_Prawn]

Spoiler: Aiel

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Also, Aiel are practically superhuman. Gaul for instance can outrun a horse, and go weeks without food or water.

Spoiler: Aiel

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P'shaw! Sorilea could outrun two horses, in a skirt, while simultaneously giving Rand an earful AND negotiating world peace!

[lord_khaine]

I'm not sure any of this is actually spoilers since we've already had the Aiel war mentioned in the books.

It kinda reveals a bit about the Aiel though, we have not at this point seen them yet.
And i think we swiftly need to put up some spoilers to hide all these comments about the Aiel.

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Though i completely agree with you on the point, its something i did not think about myself before now, but the Aiel should absolutely get crushed in any direct engagement.
Just minor things like helmet+shield wall, or actual military organisation should defeat anything but an inhuman army when your opponents are wearing nothing but cloth, and using spears.

Also, it was in endurance that Gaul outran a horse as i recall, that is impressive but not superhumanly so.

[Psyren]

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Also, it was in endurance that Gaul outran a horse as i recall, that is impressive but not superhumanly so.

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It was both. Granted Stepper is described as being more plodding (like his rider) but still, I doubt any Randland soldiers could pull off a similar feat even without their armor.

But beyond that, remember that the Aiel are anything but disorganized. They have enough battle awareness to avoid fighting the same society even in the middle of a scrum, or to avoid striking a Wise One or Roofmistress walking through the middle of a battle etc.

[monomer]

It kinda reveals a bit about the Aiel though, we have not at this point seen them yet.
And i think we swiftly need to put up some spoilers to hide all these comments about the Aiel.

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Though i completely agree with you on the point, its something i did not think about myself before now, but the Aiel should absolutely get crushed in any direct engagement.
Just minor things like helmet+shield wall, or actual military organisation should defeat anything but an inhuman army when your opponents are wearing nothing but cloth, and using spears.

Also, it was in endurance that Gaul outran a horse as i recall, that is impressive but not superhumanly so.

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So a couple things.

1) Lan describes one of their preferred tactics in The Shadow Rising, where basically, a column of Aiel is split into quarters, with one quarter attacking head first, two other quarters flanking the enemy, and the fourth waiting for a weakness to exploit. I'm not sure how well this tactic would work in the real world since scouts would be able to determine what was about to happen .The key to their fighting, though is their speed and stealth, since the Aiel are basically invisible. From Lan: "When you make first contact, you will not spot Aiel unless you are lucky." Rhuarc then confirms that this tactic works against Bordermen (presumably heavy cavalry for Shienar).

2) A disciplined, well prepared commander can certainly defend well against the Aiel. Of course, the only one shown to do such a thing effectively was Mat who just happens to be the greatest military leader in the history of the Third Age. He only needed a strong core of pikemen to protect his Horse, as well as preternatural luck to ensure he had adequate field position to make a stand.

So yeah, if we just assume the Aiel are very well trained spearmen, then they should do terribly against a decent heavy cavalry considering they are unarmored. This does not take into account their speed and invisibility. I would also assume that most, if not all, cavalry commanders who have not faced the Aiel before, would not consider them a threat, since they are only infantry, so should be looked down upon as the Lords from Tear are always inclined to do. The Cairhienens have a healthy respect for them, though it seems they didn't learn anything about tactics during the Aiel War.

[snowblizz]

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So a couple things.

1) Lan describes one of their preferred tactics in The Shadow Rising, where basically, a column of Aiel is split into quarters, with one quarter attacking head first, two other quarters flanking the enemy, and the fourth waiting for a weakness to exploit. I'm not sure how well this tactic would work in the real world since scouts would be able to determine what was about to happen .The key to their fighting, though is their speed and stealth, since the Aiel are basically invisible. From Lan: "When you make first contact, you will not spot Aiel unless you are lucky." Rhuarc then confirms that this tactic works against Bordermen (presumably heavy cavalry for Shienar).

2) A disciplined, well prepared commander can certainly defend well against the Aiel. Of course, the only one shown to do such a thing effectively was Mat who just happens to be the greatest military leader in the history of the Third Age. He only needed a strong core of pikemen to protect his Horse, as well as preternatural luck to ensure he had adequate field position to make a stand.

So yeah, if we just assume the Aiel are very well trained spearmen, then they should do terribly against a decent heavy cavalry considering they are unarmored. This does not take into account their speed and invisibility. I would also assume that most, if not all, cavalry commanders who have not faced the Aiel before, would not consider them a threat, since they are only infantry, so should be looked down upon as the Lords from Tear are always inclined to do. The Cairhienens have a healthy respect for them, though it seems they didn't learn anything about tactics during the Aiel War.

Spoiler: Aiel tactics

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1) This tactic was spectacularly successful in the real world, used by the Zulu. Obviously somewhat less so agaisnt massed rifle fire but then that's not what they face. Dead scouts tell no tales and do you want to bet on the Aiel or Wetlander's scouts?
2) A pike block is not invulnerable and has "gaps" that people can slip by in (since the pike soldiers themseleves need room). In fact the Spanish used sword and board guys to break up pikeblocks as pikes in formation aren't closecombat weapons.
3)Aiel are less spearmen than swordsmen actually. Since they are fighting using zulu weapons and thus lack the range of a full spear.
More than once they seem to be severely outnumbering their enemies too. Most non bookseries combat is with very small armies actually, paralelling a similar trend IRL for a bit. Or to be clear(er) as the series progress army sizes shoot up by factors of x10 or even x100. There's a reason it took a coalition to stop the Aiel invasion, and Aiel can sustain larger losses in troops.

FWIW most Randland military forces exibit "planet of the hat" syndrome to me. And it bugs me a bit.

[nightwyrm]

A human actually can outrun a horse, as long as it's long distance endurance running. If you try to run a horse through a marathon, the horse will die.

[georgie_leech]

A human actually can outrun a horse, as long as it's long distance endurance running. If you try to run a horse through a marathon, the horse will die.

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The average person can't run a marathon either mind you. An entire culture capable of doing that day in and day out is still really impressive.

[ryuplaneswalker]

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The average person can't run a marathon either mind you. An entire culture capable of doing that day in and day out is still really impressive.

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Considering they have been doing it for 2500+ years, we should not be surprised.

[Sapphire Guard]

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When do we see the Aiel fight a shieldwall or cavalry charge?

[Ninja_Prawn]

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When do we see the Aiel fight a shieldwall or cavalry charge?

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Shield-wall? Dumai's Wells.

But, um... I've just finished book 8, and so far, I don't think anyone's used sensible (mundane) tactics against Aiel armies except on very small scales. I'm saying that Mat's pike squares at Cairhien was a case of 'making the best of a bad situation'.

It seems that most of the cavalry charges against Aiel that we see in the books are either a) light cavalry, b) piecemeal and disorganised, c) ludicrously outnumbered, d) defeated by the Aielmen's superhuman speed, reflexes, strength, willpower and courage or e) all of the above.

[Adderbane]

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Aiel are disciplined and mobile enough that pinning them down for a major charge is near impossible. The only way to hit them is when they're distracted by a stationary target; such as at Cairheinian and Dumai's Wells. Also randland calvary tends to be nobles who overestimate themselves and underestimate Aiel "savages".

Really I think the Aiels strength is that they're really hard to ambush and really good at ambushing.

[lord_khaine]

Spoiler: Aiel

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it would then in part explain how they beat minor groups, but by all right they should get crushed in larger engagements and when attacking fortified positions.

Though at the same time, it does sound like armor is more or less nonexistant in the setting? I dont really recall hearing any references to it.
And if everyone runs around with just a sword like it were a junior larp, then i better understand how the Aiel are crushing everyone.

[Seerow]

Spoiler: Aiel

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it would then in part explain how they beat minor groups, but by all right they should get crushed in larger engagements and when attacking fortified positions.

Though at the same time, it does sound like armor is more or less nonexistant in the setting? I dont really recall hearing any references to it.
And if everyone runs around with just a sword like it were a junior larp, then i better understand how the Aiel are crushing everyone.

Spoiler: Armor

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No Armor seems to be a main character conceit rather than a general setting one. At the very least I know that there was a Mat chapter where it mentioned rumors were spreading about him having some sort of supernatural protection because he doesn't wear armor into battle; and soldiers are regularly described having breastplates or mail. Though I don't think anyone uses full plate.

[Ninja_Prawn]

Spoiler: Armor

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No Armor seems to be a main character conceit rather than a general setting one. At the very least I know that there was a Mat chapter where it mentioned rumors were spreading about him having some sort of supernatural protection because he doesn't wear armor into battle; and soldiers are regularly described having breastplates or mail. Though I don't think anyone uses full plate.

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Yeah, Jordan seemed to be quite careful about describing armour, particularly once the Legion of the Dragon and second wave of Seanchan come into the story; I get the impression he points out lacking or substandard armour in order to demonstrate the economic situation of various groups.

It was mentioned that the Shienaran '"heavy cavalry" is the best in the world; considering that their armies are apparently composed entirely of 'lances', it seems a fair bet that they wear full plate. This image (from the wiki) seems quite reasonable, but I don't know if that really counts as full plate.

[ryuplaneswalker]

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it would then in part explain how they beat minor groups, but by all right they should get crushed in larger engagements and when attacking fortified positions.

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Because they are so stealthy that the Borderlander's who are outright the singular best fighting force can not find them unless the Aiel -want them to- they don't get crushed in large engagements or when attacking fortified positions because they win the fight before anyone else knows the fight is on.

That is the one problem I had with Aviendah's visions in book 12 I think it was..How in the holy crud did The Seanchan win against the Aiel? The Aiel could have very easily taken apart the Seanchan's biggest advantage through stealth tactics. Of course..with what the Main Girls learn off the Forsaken..I wonder how the Seanchan empire manages to exist a decade after the end of the last battle.

[georgie_leech]

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Because they are so stealthy that the Borderlander's who are outright the singular best fighting force can not find them unless the Aiel -want them to- they don't get crushed in large engagements or when attacking fortified positions because they win the fight before anyone else knows the fight is on.

That is the one problem I had with Aviendah's visions in book 12 I think it was..How in the holy crud did The Seanchan win against the Aiel? The Aiel could have very easily taken apart the Seanchan's biggest advantage through stealth tactics. Of course..with what the Main Girls learn off the Forsaken..I wonder how the Seanchan empire manages to exist a decade after the end of the last battle.

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Quick and Stealthy is not at all the same as being perfect. As Dumai's Wells demonstrated so eloquently, the Power is used as a weapon, it's brutally effective. All you need is a few seconds of visibility. The Aiel are good, but not 'rout armies in seconds' good.

[The_Snark]

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That is the one problem I had with Aviendah's visions in book 12 I think it was..How in the holy crud did The Seanchan win against the Aiel? The Aiel could have very easily taken apart the Seanchan's biggest advantage through stealth tactics. Of course..with what the Main Girls learn off the Forsaken..I wonder how the Seanchan empire manages to exist a decade after the end of the last battle.

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Because the Aiel are in decline, that's why. In that vision, the Aiel had been at peace and away from the Three-Fold Land for something like twenty years? Long enough that there's a generation or two of Aiel who didn't grow up with the constant raiding, water feuds, and hostile environment that defined Aiel culture in the Waste. They assume they're the best warriors in the world, but they can't really back up that claim anymore. We see something similar happen with the Shaido in later books: outside their ancestral home and without a good leader, they sort of fall apart... and Aviendha's granddaugher, at least, reminded me a lot of Sevanna.

There's also the simple fact that the Seanchan have far more experience than anyone else fielding channelers in battle, which is a big deal. The Aiel do end up using Wise Ones to fight, but they're learning as they go; the Seanchan have been doing it for centuries. They also seem to be better-trained and organized than most other armies...

... on which note, it must be said that the Aiel established their reputation against somewhat less-than-stellar enemies. They're good at asymmetrical warfare, and they're good at playing to their strengths, and they've been able to parlay that into some pretty impressive victories. But Tairen/Cairhienin/Andoran/etc nobles are pretty consistently depicted as overconfident and unimaginative, which means easy to take advantage of. Borderlanders are better about this, but the typical conflict with Aiel is a border skirmish and that's where the Aiel excel. (Even then, they respect Borderlanders as something close to worthy enemies.) They held their ground in the Trolloc Wars, which is impressive, but they were defending their home ground and Trollocs rely on numbers and raw strength more skill or discipline - that's close to ideal conditions for Aiel.

When they went up against the Seanchan, I suspect they forgot a lot of this. The new generation of Aiel believed that they were just naturally better than everyone else, and they paid for that mistake, just like those Cairhienin/Tairen/etc nobles before them did.

[Aeson]

Regarding the current spoiler topic:

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Also remember that the Seanchan have airborne scouts whereas the Aiel are accustomed to hiding from traditional land-based scouts. Some things which are invisible from the ground may well be perfectly obvious from above, and my impression is that in the vision of the future that Aviendha saw the Aiel didn't have a lot of time to learn how to hide from airborne scouts before they were crushed. You could maybe argue that they get some experience in doing so against the drahkgar or whatever the flying darkspawn are called, but the drahkgar don't show up that often from what I recall.

[Ninja_Prawn]

Regarding the current spoiler topic:

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Also remember that the Seanchan have airborne scouts whereas the Aiel are accustomed to hiding from traditional land-based scouts. Some things which are invisible from the ground may well be perfectly obvious from above, and my impression is that in the vision of the future that Aviendha saw the Aiel didn't have a lot of time to learn how to hide from airborne scouts before they were crushed. You could maybe argue that they get some experience in doing so against the drahkgar or whatever the flying darkspawn are called, but the drahkgar don't show up that often from what I recall.

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*Corazon Santiago voice* "Air Power rests at the apex of the first triad of victory, for it combines Mobility, Flexibility, and Initiative."

[ryuplaneswalker]

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Quick and Stealthy is not at all the same as being perfect. As Dumai's Wells demonstrated so eloquently, the Power is used as a weapon, it's brutally effective. All you need is a few seconds of visibility. The Aiel are good, but not 'rout armies in seconds' good.

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Dumai's Well's was a crap show from the Aiel Side, The Aiel stealth abilities outright vanish after book 4, The Aiel stayed in Tear for days with the only notice of them being "Rumors of footpads" and Julin Sandar being like "There is something up here, I can't see it but I know it is up here"

The Power as a weapon is effective but as we are constantly reminded "You can't channel if you get an arrow in you before you see your foe" which we see in effect twice in the entire series.

[Psyren]

As noted above, its not just channeling:

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The Seanchan have literal monsters at their disposal too. Even discounting the obvious tactical advantage of flight, who knows what other abilities/senses they have? When your lizard mounts can sniff out Aiel scouts and your bird ones can spot them from the sky, you lose your main advantage.

Also, Aiel channelers might as well be stuck with the Three Oaths for how often they actually use their powers in battle. They're not prohibited from doing so, but neither are they experienced enough to combine their abilities with military strikes the way Seanchan are.

[Seerow]

As noted above, its not just channeling:

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The Seanchan have literal monsters at their disposal too. Even discounting the obvious tactical advantage of flight, who knows what other abilities/senses they have? When your lizard mounts can sniff out Aiel scouts and your bird ones can spot them from the sky, you lose your main advantage.

Also, Aiel channelers might as well be stuck with the Three Oaths for how often they actually use their powers in battle. They're not prohibited from doing so, but neither are they experienced enough to combine their abilities with military strikes the way Seanchan are.

Spoiler: End Series Spoilers

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One thing noted in Aviendha's visions was the turning point of the war against the Seanchan was when the other nations got dragged in. Because that led to Seanchan beginning to capture damane from every other nation on the continent. Not to mention wise ones themselves being captured. That's what's always been scary about the Seanchan. Not only are they brutally efficient, but they have the ability to turn your assets against you. Channelers most obviously so, but you can also see how the Seanchan came in and took over Tarabon and Altarans, not just subjugating the locals, but converting them to their side, integrating them into the empire and utilizing their armies (even recruiting from the general populace).

That capability is what lets them spread so quickly and what makes them so truly intimidating to go up against. Even then, the Aeil hold out in the war for literally multiple generations, to the point where aeil are born and die in an age where they know nothing except the war against the Seanchan. While they do end up dominated, the fact that they held out as long as they did is impressive.

[Corvus]

Speaking of the Aiel - how do people pronounce it? It took me the longest time to realise I was doing it wrong and I still do. Apparently it is meant to be pronounced as eye-EEL. I always read it as Ay-el (sort of like the drink). I've read it taht way so long now I just can't not read it that way.

[georgie_leech]

Speaking of the Aiel - how do people pronounce it? It took me the longest time to realise I was doing it wrong and I still do. Apparently it is meant to be pronounced as eye-EEL. I always read it as Ay-el (sort of like the drink). I've read it taht way so long now I just can't not read it that way.

Likewise, for a while. Turns out if you consciously practice reading it the 'proper' way you start overwriting that pattern.

Still working on pronouncing it EYEZ and not not EYE-ez or (rhymes with day) EH-ez Sedai though.

[Ninja_Prawn]

Speaking of the Aiel - how do people pronounce it? It took me the longest time to realise I was doing it wrong and I still do. Apparently it is meant to be pronounced as eye-EEL. I always read it as Ay-el (sort of like the drink). I've read it taht way so long now I just can't not read it that way.

I read it as 'ail' before I checked the glossary. Then I read the rest of the glossary and decided to ignore all of Jordan's pronunciations, because none of them make any sense. In my head, I hear AZE SE-dai, NIGH-nive, al-thor, AN-grey-al, ah-ram (the Tinker boy), KAIR-HEEN and... holy Björk, I just realised I'm pronouncing Saidin and Saidar wrong as well! I had them as two syllables!

[ryuplaneswalker]

Speaking of the Aiel - how do people pronounce it? It took me the longest time to realise I was doing it wrong and I still do. Apparently it is meant to be pronounced as eye-EEL. I always read it as Ay-el (sort of like the drink). I've read it taht way so long now I just can't not read it that way.

Audio books say

Eye-eel

[Seerow]

In my head Aeil is Ayeil, Aes Sedai is Ace Said-eye

holy Björk, I just realised I'm pronouncing Saidin and Saidar wrong as well! I had them as two syllables!

I don't even know how this is supposed to work.

[georgie_leech]

In my head Aeil is Ayeil, Aes Sedai is Ace Said-eye



I don't even know how this is supposed to work.

Sah-i-DEEN and sah-i-DAHR. A bunch of the words are basically 'pronounce every vowel, no matter how weird.' Except sometimes not.

[Ninja_Prawn]

I don't even know how this is supposed to work.

Jordan has them pronounced as if they had apostrophes, like Sa'i'din and Sa'i'dar, or something. The man was crazy...

[Psyren]

I don't even know how this is supposed to work.

Intended pronounciation:

sah-ih-DEEN
sah-ih-DAHR

What Ninja_Prawn was (probably) doing:

SEYE-din
SEYE-dar