A Typical Werewolf Game

[Murska]

Random day one Zar Peter bandwagon? Sure.

[Zar Peter]

Back when Iw as still playing this, random day one poiting was still fine but I beleive nowadays it is considered good to start bandwagon as soon as possible to have information to use on day 2 ? So I will hop on Zar Peter.

.. I mean Zar Peter bandwagon that is, not on the guy...
... Well unless he's okay with it..
.. Oh what the heck

*Rides Zar Peter into the sunset*

I highly object against this picture in my brain.

Also I'm against a random Zar Peter bandwagon on day 1 or, really, any day of the game. But, as the great philosophers Keith Richards and Mick Jagger once said, you can't always get what you want.
So, I'm in a kind of situation here and have to point at someone who has at least a few points so I can build a counter bandwagon and so I point at Xihirli, not out of hostility but because of necessity.

[Indarra]

Did anyone else get a message saying they were the special townie by Saposhiente, asking if they had any powers?

[Xihirli]

Did anyone else get a message saying they were the special townie by Saposhiente, asking if they had any powers?

I did.

Saposhiente.

[Logic]

I got the same PM from Sapo, which now looks like some funny fishing. Saposhiente, what do you have to say?

[Duck999]

Hey, me too! Saposhiente
(I personally hope anyone who responded didn't tell the truth)

[Grand Arbiter]

A certain specter of the void
Should've been more paranoid

It would appear that I've been played
My open trust thus betrayed
In foul masquerade
Let our fury be displayed

For Saphoshiente,
Dobbiamo farlo niente.

Spoiler: OOC

Show

I fell for the fishing.

Last line is Italian, meant to mean roughly "we must make them nothing". Since we're all supposed to be spirits, (and mine is a tad malevolent), it seems to make sense.

Also, it's not easy to rhyme with Saphoshiente in English.

[Logic]

Something has come to me. Sapo is a good player. Is anyone else thinking this is something different? A grand strategy for something else? It seems a rather strange play to message so many people with the same info.

Lets assume Sapo messaged everyone for a second:

If Sapo is a mason, messaging everyone outside the network alerts the wolves that she is lying about it. (High risk, low reward)
If Sapo is a wolf, messaging all of town alerts any masons that she is lying. (Medium risk, medium reward)
If Sapo is a vanillager, messaging everyone alerts both the masons and wolves, likely delaying a nightkill by the wolves as they will let town take care of her instead, or gaining Sapo's trust to do something nefarious. (High Risk, high reward)
If Sapo is a neutral, she likely has a win condition to get so many role claimants. I can't think of an alternate reason why else a neutral would do this. (Medium risk, high reward)

Messaging everyone has a higher chance of getting the gullible townies (myself nearly included) to role-claim, but also has a reasonably high chance of death, so her being a networked player is more likely than not. Because someone is likely going to call her out on the play, and then town will realize they've been duped, and Sapo is likely dead, but needs to pass on the information to make it useful. Based on the above, I think Sapo is most likely a neutral, with a wolf being the next most likely option. I don't see this as a normal town play, but Sapo is also the most unconventional player I have ever met (that gets results.)

This theory is slightly less useful in this game, as "dead" players can still participate to levels I don't think we've seen before. Please pitch alternate ideas. I may have missed some obvious explanations.

[Gray Mage]

Well, no game with Saposhiente is a dull game.

Still, I'm not convinced of bandwagoning him yet. That sounded like a way too flashy move for a wolf. My bet is neutral role or town banking on the playing while dead mechanic.

Duck999 for now.

[fuzzysora]

Did anyone else get a message saying they were the special townie by Saposhiente, asking if they had any powers?

Aw crumbs. Here I was thinking I was special.

Saposhiente

[Durzan]

*Stares around confused...*

I have no clue whats going on...

[AvatarVecna]

Unsurprising. I'll keep my vote where it is.

[smuchmuch]

Hey ... Saphoshiente could have been telling the truth !
.... Yeah probaly no, got the PM too. (I will neither confirm or deny weither I fell for it). I'll shift my vote as I feel that was more than a good enough reason.

Saphioente

[Saposhiente]

Yep! I lied. I was originally planning to duplicate Quaz's L-space gambit (tell everybody that you know that they're a wolf), but then as I was asking Ramsus about role PM formats, they helpfully gave me this information: There exist connected wolves in this game. (They told me the format for a connected wolf). Ramsus also implied that there exist neutral roles. They neither acknowledged nor denied the existence of unconnected wolves, but I knew that the "tell everyone that you know they're a wolf" gambit would have a much lower chance of hitting anything--connected wolves don't fall for that.

So, I went for the high risk, high reward gambit instead: tell people they're Town.

Here is the key difference between how I played this gambit and how I would have played this gambit if I was a wolf: I told everybody. This guarantees that the gambit will blow up (like it did), full stop. You can't get away with that; already, the person who told me they were Seer/Fool said they planned to scry me to find out which one they were. Also, every time that we lynched somebody would have required me to vote for somebody that I had promised to protect--they would quickly out me. The wolf gambit that actually leaves you some chance of survival, and a chance of disrupting the actions of people who I contacted, is to only message some people. Then, I could try to vote for people outside of that group, and it's more than enough information to direct kills for the next few nights (and after that, if wolves have a Devil, they'll probably just know every role); the time it would take to out me might be no shorter than the time it would normally take for someone to scry me.
Actually, I told everybody except for Murska. Murska's (non-?)response to not getting a PM would be more informative than anything they would tell me.
That is why what I did is the wrong way to go about this as a wolf: If I am a wolf, I will very quickly die, nothing I can do about it. Tomorrow, Day 3, whenever; I am the #1 person of interest right now, and people have good reason to be suspicious of me. Wolves don't survive that.

I got a surprising number of claims. At this point, testing whether I'm a wolf is easy; just wait and see whether all the powerroles die. But,
Do you know who would instantly know that I was lying? A wolf. And, surprise surprise, after wolves had enough time to discuss the situation with each other and plan a lynch, BOOM! Megawagon. (Presumably, the wolves and the villagers were both okay with this wagon). And, they halted the flow of incoming claims--they knew that every time a Townie claimed to another Townie, Town became stronger.

My top 3 suspicions are:
Indarra, who was so certain that I was lying that they didn't even want to wait and see. (Lots of smart townies gave me vague hints and established preliminary communication until I could be confirmed).
ThePhantom, whose vague hint about their role didn't match the types of roles I was generally seeing from other people.
Lex-Kat, who replied to the thread but not to me. (Perhaps they wanted to discuss the matter with their wolfbuddies first? I expected them to reply but not tell me anything--in L-Space, they specifically said not to trust people who said they knew your role.) (The same can be said of Logic, but Logic is contributing, so I'll give them a pass for now.)

[Murska]

I am very disappointed that I didn't get a message. :(

Indarra. I want to encourage gambits.

[Indarra]

Sure, it was a terrible wolf-play...
Unless you get to tell the connected wolves who claimed Seer and Fool and are, for instance, The Beast.

[Xihirli]

Sapo is SO SMART!

[Saposhiente]

Sure, it was a terrible wolf-play...
Unless you get to tell the connected wolves who claimed Seer and Fool and are, for instance, The Beast.

Um, what? You're pointing out ways for smart Townies to make this gambit even worse for a wolf to try.

Sapo is SO SMART!

I have no idea what to make of this post.

[Indarra]

Um, what? You're pointing out ways for smart Townies to make this plan even worse for a wolf to try.

Not in any way. If you, as the Beast, attracted all this attention, and got a list of power roles, then the wolves now have a list of targets.
If you are discovered, you die and bring a townie down with you. Because you're the Beast.

Sure, the wolves lose one member, but that's all they lose for the claims of many who might be the Seer. It's a spectacular wolf play, if you're the Beast.

[Saposhiente]

Not in any way. If you, as the Beast, attracted all this attention, and got a list of power roles, then the wolves now have a list of targets.
If you are discovered, you die and bring a townie down with you. Because you're the Beast.

Sure, the wolves lose one member, but that's all they lose for the claims of many who might be the Seer. It's a spectacular wolf play, if you're the Beast.

Oh, I see--I thought you were saying that the Seer claimants might secretly be a town-Beast. Really though, a Beast is in no rush to be killed--as long as they're not the last Wolf alive, they'll kill someone sooner or later, and they'd rather wait to kill the Baner (if there is one) when he can't protect himself (at least if it's a daykill Beast).

Your knowledge of different role possibilities really demonstrates that you ought to know better than to assume that there was a 0% chance I was telling the truth. If I was, and you were town, this play of yours would be disastrous.

[Indarra]

Oh, I see--I thought you were saying that the Seer claimants might secretly be a town-Beast. Really though, a Beast is in no rush to be killed--as long as they're not the last Wolf alive, they'll kill someone sooner or later, and they'd rather wait to kill the Baner (if there is one) when he can't protect himself.

Your knowledge of different role possibilities really demonstrates that you ought to know better than to assume that there is a 0% chance I was telling the truth. If I was, and you were town, this play of yours would be disastrous.

Sure, no rush. But at the chance to get the name of a Seer? It's easily worth it.
The play if mine where I asked the Town if you'd PMed anyone else? The play wouldn't have worked UNLESS you had asked multiple people. If you were telling the truth, then you wouldn't have spoken to so many other people. My play - using transparency and cooperation among the town - was the MOST rational way of dealing with what you sent my way.

[Saposhiente]

Sure, no rush. But at the chance to get the name of a Seer? It's easily worth it.
The play if mine where I asked the Town if you'd PMed anyone else? The play wouldn't have worked UNLESS you had asked multiple people. If you were telling the truth, then you wouldn't have spoken to so many other people. My play - using transparency and cooperation among the town - was the MOST rational way of dealing with what you sent my way.

You're again leaking your assumption (wolf-knowledge?) that I was lying. If I was telling the truth, then your play would just out the two of us with nothing to show for it. You were so sure I was lying that you even voted for me.

[Indarra]

If you were telling the truth, then in exposing us I would have gotten two Mason-voices and people Power Roles could have reported into.
One vote on you would not have gained traction unless my guess was correct.
I voted for you Day One. Not a universal sign of certainty.

[Saposhiente]

If you were telling the truth, then in exposing us I would have gotten two Mason-voices and people Power Roles could have reported into.

No; nobody else would know we were telling the truth. Except the wolves, who would eat you, and then not bother eating me because I'm still not confirmed at that point, and would have no special powers.

[Indarra]

Sure, I didn't actually for a second think that Peeping Tom was a real role. I didn't devote that much time to "but what if it's totally true?"
Also I think you're overblowing the possible wolf reaction.
"We found the lovers (but not really)."
That's not incredibly damning.

[Saposhiente]

Sure, I didn't actually for a second think that Peeping Tom was a real role. I didn't devote that much time to "but what if it's totally true?"

Well, that's what I'm saying. Because a wolf for-sure knows that that it's fake. Also, it's a real role in other games.

[Indarra]

If that's going to be your fall-back; "she didn't believe my obvious lie, therefore wolf," then I don't see a way for me to persuade you otherwise.

[Murska]

But why didn't I get a PM?

I like gambits because they give information about the people who make them and potentially about everyone else, too. They also make the game more interesting to play, no matter which side attempts them. Generally, however, I've found that wolves are a cowardly lot and rarely attempt anything neat, which is why I'd rather leave Sapo alive.

[Zar Peter]

I think Sapo has a point in his thinking... if I had a bit of a powerful role I maybe wouldn't have revealed it to him and thought more about it.
Anyway I'm a bit concerned that already a potential seer told him their role... don't do that before you have scried the claimant!

Oh, and point at Indarra.

[Saposhiente]

But why didn't I get a PM?

Actually, I told everybody except for Murska. Murska's (non-?)response to not getting a PM would be more informative than anything they would tell me.

Because you're too wary, and not afraid to respond with half-lies that can be interpreted in any possible way. There were more possibilities for you (or the wolves, if you're one of them) to react oddly if I didn't send you a PM.

Heh, I always enjoy playing gambits when you're in the game because you understand them, but the problem is, you understand them