James Bond Werewolf: Day 8

[Chambers]

Since we're discussing voting strategies, I just picked the Poster Above Me when I got around to posting. I'm enjoying the back and forth going on though. ::thumbs up::

[Bobb]

Re:

"Forging the narrative"

I don't know what Avatarvecna's talking about. My timeline of GeneralH's actions is correct.

He literally said "A lot of McGinty's posts since pressure started piling on have rung true." Compare: "Ring true."



He literally said "I feel like he's not really being open to all possibilities like a good townie should be doing." Compare: "not being open minded."



The quotation marks were literal. I didn't put words in anyone's mouth. When confronted with my choice of words (which were really GeneralH's) I flippantly replied that I was "forging a narrative" because it's a phrase I'm familiar with being used in a sarcastic manner. (40k anyone? Dakka forums?)

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What I'm doing is being open with what I see developing. To my mind's eye there were a lot of posters defending McGinty in odd ways or ways I wouldn't expect them to. Four posters to be exact.


Now one is already off my radar (Libro), one has found the biggest scum tell in my post that is accusatory towards him, one is still hovering with their unplaced vote, and the fourth is still out there. Presumably sleeping or doing a productive activity.

[AvatarVecna]

Re:

"Forging the narrative"

I don't know what Avatarvecna's talking about. My timeline of GeneralH's actions is correct.

I was pointing out to you why they might see "forging the narrative" as a scumtell, because it can be interpreted as "making **** up to make them look bad". I don't think that's what you were doing, but that's mostly because I haven't really been reading that person's stuff very much.

[Felandria]

Because of the vibe I'm getting from certain people...AvatarVecna

[Saposhiente]

Miller! If it hadn't been for wiki walking mafiascum I would have no idea what you were talking about. Even in the crazier funsies/"bastard mod" games in the archives I've never seen a role like it here. And it seems really bastardy for Logic to promise powers for everybody and then hand out "Your power is, you suck." So on first swipe I'm inclined to believe that this role doesn't exist. False dichotomy check: Are there any scenarios where they are lying but not a wolf? Aside from some improbably specific roles, I can't think of any--this just seems bad for a Townie that doesn't scry as scum.

Looking through the discussion (and trying not to be outpaced by the new discussion forming, heh),

Ignoring the claim itself, do you think I look scummy, Murska?The all- eye

I don't like this. The claim is the only concrete thing MMcG had done by this point, and is a much stronger form of evidence than anything else we'll usually get on Day 1. It's an excellent tactic to get people to look at the wrong question and ignore the data. To be fair though, it is in a townie's best interest to not get lynched, even if it means trying to manipulate.

If that was an acceptable argument to not lynch you, town would never lynch any wolves. For the record, I think you're probably town and telling the truth but it's just too dangerous a precedent to set to allow you to live with just saying that.

Any additional miller gambits this game won't work because they should have counterclaimed MMcG if they were a miller. If you're worried about miller gambits in other games, uh, stop worrying? That's a problem for people in those games, not this one.

Even if we ignore that most scries (at least on this site) are generally "specific role" rather than "allegiance"

Uhh, no? Not in Classic, anyway, except with some narrators. It's certainly not uncommon--the right reason to doubt the claim is that millers are rare, not that alignment-only scriers are rare; this doesn't make any sense.

The most likely scenario is that you're a townie who's just being anti-town for the sake of looking like you're pulling a smart gambit when you're not.

What even?

Your posts start making a lot more sense now that you've stated that your intent was to get yourself lynched.

AV pls.

(Libro, can you please not place your vote inside spoilers?)

Because I claimed today, that vote won't count.

What in Hel's name is this role? "Miller double-voter with a quasi-post-restriction?" I can only hope Logic is well aware of this whole can of worms, such as: What if you vaguely hint/crumb about your role? What if you claim but pretend to be joking? What if you claim in white text and the narrator doesn't notice? What if you claim only one of your supposed powers? Etc, etc...

Maybe shoot to make it a tie (not counting(?)) McGinty's vote... Someone else think this through better than me.

Oh yes, that's the great advantage of this role, we can actually test it with a tie vote! But wait...

There are predetermined rules for ties & multiple votes, though the specifics of which are not initially revealed to the player.

Maybe the wolves know what these rules are, and want us to "test" vote-manipulation roles by giving them control of the lynch.

I should post all this before people (myself included) start going to bed. Analysis of Bobb can wait, nothing hugely sticks out at a glance.

I don't like AV's attack but I really don't like Mrs McGinty making a hugely improbable claim and then trying to raise the standards of evidence to some higher bar on D1, and possibly fishing for tie manipulation opportunities.

[Mrs McGinty]

I wasn't planning to spend any further effort talking about my claim, but since this is Sapo - veteran of one of my favourite mafia championship games - I just can't resist...

Miller! If it hadn't been for wiki walking mafiascum I would have no idea what you were talking about. Even in the crazier funsies/"bastard mod" games in the archives I've never seen a role like it here. And it seems really bastardy for Logic to promise powers for everybody and then hand out "Your power is, you suck."

Indeed.

Now trying putting yourself in my shoes at the start of the game, and see if the way I've played this doesn't make perfect sense (not to say it was optimal in theory, but rather that it was a practical solution to a bastard starting position).

So on first swipe I'm inclined to believe that this role doesn't exist. False dichotomy check: Are there any scenarios where they are lying but not a wolf? Aside from some improbably specific roles, I can't think of any--this just seems bad for a Townie that doesn't scry as scum.

Yep. And, moreover, if you look back at my first few posts in light of what happened afterwards, it should be clear that I knew full well I was making myself the default lynch.

It might very well have improved my survival chances somewhat if had opened with a full reveal, and had been careful not to leave any ambiguity in what I was saying (rather than deliberately dialing it up). But that would have reduced the range of possible reactions, and thus given less for people to talk about. A major part of my approach to towning is to try and identify townies based on their efforts to understand what is going on from a position of ignorance, which is why - as frustrating as some people might find it - I am quite happy to open the game with a bare-faced lie, as seen with the Hardclaim: Survivor thing (the frequency with which I use it being the only outright falsehood I've spoken here - as several people here can attest, it's certainly not every game).

I don't like this. The claim is the only concrete thing MMcG had done by this point, and is a much stronger form of evidence than anything else we'll usually get on Day 1. It's an excellent tactic to get people to look at the wrong question and ignore the data. To be fair though, it is in a townie's best interest to not get lynched, even if it means trying to manipulate.

Not trying to manipulate, trying to get Murska to respond to my play (he's seen enough of my game in the past to form a judgement, I think), rather than just the bare fact of the claim. Perhaps not likely to yield a result from Captain Taciturn, but had to be worth a try.

What in Hel's name is this role? "Miller double-voter with a quasi-post-restriction?" I can only hope Logic is well aware of this whole can of worms, such as: What if you vaguely hint/crumb about your role? What if you claim but pretend to be joking? What if you claim in white text and the narrator doesn't notice? What if you claim only one of your supposed powers? Etc, etc...

You've no reason to believe me, of course, but for the sake of completeness I should note that this did play into my thinking about making that claim. I hate ambiguity around the rules on stuff like this, and I'd much rather just be playing the game than worrying about what might be crossing the line, or spamming the GM with questions about how far I can push it (which can end up feeling almost like cheating to me). Much cleaner in this case just to smack it down on the table, and get on with the shouting.

Oh, and as a side-note, I didn't suggest the bit about testing my lack of a vote because it strikes me as a bad idea from a town perspective (especially a non-me town perspective). In a game where there's one vote-manipulating power, there are usually more.

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With regards to GeneralH and Snerk, I'd note that they probably ought to know my game well enough to see that I'd never make that claim as scum, and certainly ought to recognise the free-flowing townie jabberbox I've been so far in this game.

On the other hand, I haven't been scum for eons, so I guess maybe they're thinking lack of practice has eroded both my inhibitions and my sense of self-preservation.

[Murska]

Hmm. To be fair...

Ignoring the claim itself, do you think I look scummy, Murska?

No.

I think AV is also Town. It doesn't read scummy to draw so much attention arguing against our Miller here, especially if they end up being Town.

Bobb sounds Town too, though less strongly. Same with flat_footed.

Libro, on the other hand, does not. Neither does Ramsus, or anyone else who is both voting for Mrs McGinty while talking mostly about how they're possibly Town.

[Fuchur]

When does the phase end? I'm quite busy today, so I couldn't follow all the talk that happened thus far.

[Logic]

When does the phase end? I'm quite busy today, so I couldn't follow all the talk that happened thus far.

Ends of phases are in the OP, and the start of day post. Currently set for about 10:15 A.M. Pacific; approximately 5 hours from now.

[Snerk]

With regards to GeneralH and Snerk, I'd note that they probably ought to know my game well enough to see that I'd never make that claim as scum, and certainly ought to recognise the free-flowing townie jabberbox I've been so far in this game.

Nah, I wouldn't say never. Feeling slightly adventurous, plus not playing on your main forums, I can picture you thinking feck it let's roll the dice on this one.

The main problem is that after that claim I don't want to run the risk of being a complete fool and letting you get away with it if you're scum.

Even so. You're putting in the work so I'll go with my gut and leave you be for now.

Ramsus

[Logic]

ALERT!

My wife has planned a 3-day weekend for the pair of us, starting Thursday afternoon. I should be able to end the night on time (Friday, around 10:15 AM Pacific) but don't fret if Night 1 closes/Day 2 opens late.

This does not affect the end of Day 1 and the start of Night 1.

[Bobb]

huh.

Snerk had a pretty big change of heart. It makes page 4 look sort of damning for him. Mrs McGinty calling that change of vote is actually very interesting. If GeneralH, Snerk, and Murska are all more familiar with McGinty's play and none of them are actually voting McGinty anymore...


Tatiana Romanova.

McGinty, are you a Bond girl?

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We're at

McGinty: five votes
Avatarvecna: five votes

Edit: Kish, the vote counter killer.

We have a tie for the lead vote and all of duck's votes are from people who haven't posted in a while. I think it's going to be one of these two for day one lynch.

[Kish]

I don't think most scries on this site are "specific role"--the Devil's scries generally are, but I can only think of two games where that was the case for the Seer.

At this point, I think Mrs. McGinty is probably town, so, AvatarVecna.

[Bobb]

@McGinty, since your vote doesn't count and we are running close to the wire...

Would you be comfortable voting for yourself?

[Mrs McGinty]

Time for some reading, starting at the top of the postcount list...

I like Bobb for town. Feels relaxed and solvey. Sense of someone moving through townie thought processes. That said, I also get the impression of someone who's very capable as scum, so while it's a good lean, I'd be careful not to rest too hard on it.

I've softened on AvatarVecna. My initial impression of the wordcount-to-content ratio was that it was dressing up weaker arguments as stronger ones by force of volume, but on review it could just as easily be townie processing. I still get hints of what I believe is known as 'agenda' from some of those posts (similar to what GeneralH addressed on the subject of narrative creation), so we're not quite in the town zone here. But I'm satisfied enough with the evidence of plausible thought flow to keep AV out of the red pile.

Snerk isn't playing his looks-townier-than-when-he's-town scumgame here, so that's a point in his favour. I'm slightly suspicious that he didn't read me straight town for my claim and flow, but he has recently (at the end of our last game together) expressed the belief that I am unreadable by tone, so I guess paranoia can take up at least some of that slack. Call him null, leaning just slightly town if I had to call it.

The General is a trickier case, since I know him well, but we've never played a game together away from the org (where his position is much like that of the Pope in the Catholic church). I said before that he ought to have recognised this as my town game, but, on reflection, if he's ever seen my scum game it may have been 5+ years ago. What I can say is that, whichever side he's batting for, he's yet to turn on the magic. At this stage, I think that's probably more townie than scummy, as he'd be more likely to care about making a good impression as a villain.

...and now my son wants me to help him make a card for his mother, asking in a manner so cute that I simply can't turn him down. Hopefully be finished in time to get some more reads done before eod.

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McGinty, are you a Bond girl?

Yup.

@McGinty, since your vote doesn't count and we are running close to the wire...

Would you be comfortable voting for yourself?

Sure.

Mrs McGinty

[Bobb]

@Logic, are we told in the event of a tie that there was a tie or only the results?

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I had thought the Bond Girls would be the masons of the game.

But if you're not connected to anyone.... You would have claimed that connected-ness, right?

[Mrs McGinty]

I had thought the Bond Girls would be the masons of the game.

But if you're not connected to anyone.... You would have claimed that connected-ness, right?

If I'd been a mason, I don't imagine I'd have claimed in the first place.

But, yeah, I'm totally unconnected, and have shared no private communication about this game with anyone but the host.

[Bobb]

I have to respect you putting your vote on yourself here. As one of your remaining votes I'm going to attempt to monitor end of day and have your vote mean something. Tie without your vote is my preference. Tie with your vote is acceptable.

We have around two hours, yeah?

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Of course, if this is a false claim the hypothetical Bond Girl masons would just lynch you instead of counterclaiming. But yeah, this is getting plausible. I might have let my preconceived notions give an uncharitable reading to your story.

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I miscounted votes. Here's current vote leaders. I am on standbye to attempt a final vote count where McGinty's vote being voided or not affects the outcome.

Mrs McGinty: (Mrs McGinty, Saposhiente, Libro, Bobb, Avatarvecna, Ramsus
Avatarvecna: (Kish, Felandria, GeneralH, smuchsmuch
Duck999: (Lex-Kat, fuzzysora,Indarra,Tom the Mime

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Still calling out flat footed for townreading the lead lynch vote but abstaining from committing.

[Mrs McGinty]

McGinty Jr. - "Can I go and play nextdoor?"

McGinty throws child over fence and jumps back on PC...

Kish's first post left an impression of someone who didn't expect to put in much more effort than a random vote today. But, as I observed earlier, the response to my claim and explanation felt pretty townie. Having the idea to ask for my rolename (a smart move, and one that hadn't occurred to me) adds to that impression. Looks a good bet for town so far, though my lack of any meta means there's a chance I'm underestimating Kish's capabilities as a scumbag here.

Murska is fundamentally unreadable to me, at least until he starts to step it up. Looks townie enough so far, but could fake this in his sleep. Null.

Ramsus has the rare distinction of being a player who has been scum with me, and I've also seen him play as scum a couple more times. I wouldn't bet the farm on his being a villain here, but it's well within his meta. His response to my claim still gives me scum vibes, and I'm not seeing any kind of solving or townie thought process elsewhere to mitigate.

[GeneralH]

Okay, let's see where we're at.

Re: Bobb

But yeah, if McGinty is mafia I would bet dollars to donuts at least (and probably only) one of the four posters I mentioned is also scum.

Do you agree or disagree?

In general I shy away from making these kinds of associative tells this early on in the game, it has the potential to lock town down a path that doesn't lead anywhere good if things go wrong (and they usually go wrong just based on math). At this stage at the game I just want to lynch people I think are mafia and then I'll reevaluate once the flips start happening.

In general this is another tally mark against you, but let's move on.

The sarcasm thing. I'll concede the point on this one, apples and oranges. Though if people more familiar with you could chime in and say whether this is usual behavior, that would be appreciated.

With this post though, I'm still not sure exactly where you're getting at:

Re:

"Forging the narrative"

I don't know what Avatarvecna's talking about. My timeline of GeneralH's actions is correct.

He literally said "A lot of McGinty's posts since pressure started piling on have rung true." Compare: "Ring true."



He literally said "I feel like he's not really being open to all possibilities like a good townie should be doing." Compare: "not being open minded."



The quotation marks were literal. I didn't put words in anyone's mouth. When confronted with my choice of words (which were really GeneralH's) I flippantly replied that I was "forging a narrative" because it's a phrase I'm familiar with being used in a sarcastic manner. (40k anyone? Dakka forums?)

My initial impression of your numbered list about my actions (which I didn't quote here) was one of throwing shade/making a minor case against me, which is why I spoke out against it. However, if - and it seems to be what you're implying - is that it's nothing of such, just making a narration of my actions, that just reads as busywork and looking productive just for its own sake.

So a few more marks against.

AvatarVecna:

I think what Bobb means by it is that they're trying to get an idea of your mindset during posting, to figure out whether they agree with your argument. It's not...presented super-well, but doing stuff like this prevents the earlier miscommunication: a large part of my issue with McGinty's claim was that I kept assuming they were arguing for people to not lynch them, and it turns out that they're trying to get reactions so that when they get lynched, people will have something to analyze...maybe. In any case, their arguments didn't seem to support "don't lynch me" to me, but looking at them through a "self-sacrifice" lens makes more sense. Maybe Bobb's trying to make sense of your stuff.

Of course, their choice of words is extremely poor. Forging - which can mean crafting, or faking - a narrative - idea of what happened, or made-up story of what happened - could be interpreted as Bobb trying to understand your mindset when you made your posts, but it could also be interpreted as Bobb trying to make up a story about your mindset to make you look bad.

This post looked bad upon first read because it seemed odd that he was stepping in like that for someone. Could be a pocket attempt.

It looked better upon second read when I got a better handle (I think) on what Bobb was trying to do.

And then it looked bad again upon a third read due to Bobb saying that's not what he was going at as well (and yet kinda was).

If that makes sense at all, lol.

[Mrs McGinty]

If I could kill everyone except myself and the players I already reviewed - and assuming I could do so without making Logic cry - I'd be mashing that red button like there's no tomorrow. Given how easy it is to hide among the low posters here, I'd be more surprised by there being >1 scum in the higher posters than I would by there being none at all.

[Bobb]

@General,

I was absolutely throwing shade. I found the timeline of your actions slightly suspicious.

My "forging the narrative" line was sardonic. I didn't put any words in your mouth or twist any facts. That a concise summary of your actions to that date looked bad is on you.



Am I still communicating poorly? I don't understand how all three of you, I and AV are swinging right past each other.

[GeneralH]

@General,

I was absolutely throwing shade. I found the timeline of your actions slightly suspicious.

My "forging the narrative" line was sardonic. I didn't put any words in your mouth or twist any facts. That a concise summary of your actions to that date looked bad is on you.



Am I still communicating poorly? I don't understand how all three of you, I and AV are swinging right past each other.

Okay, let's take it from the top then. How exactly did you find the timeline of my actions suspicious?

[Mrs McGinty]

flat_footed gets aesthetic credit for the roleplay and quoted poem. His point about my claim (would a wolf call down this attention?) is easy enough. But it's a valid point, and not everyone got that. Can have a very slight town lean for taste and judgement.

I believe this is Fuchur's first game at GitP, so a certain amount of leeway must be given, especially given the radical difference in meta from MafiaScum. That said, we've not been shown any evidence of towning at all, just some observations about the rules/meta, a suggestion - far too early in the day - of reveals from those under suspicion, and latterly an excuse for not offering an opinion on the matters under discussion. Scum lean.

[Murska]

Hm. I don't like the top counterwagons right now. I don't really have any reason to lynch or not lynch Duck at this point, I think AV is Town. Could we go for someone else, like Libro or Ramsus?

[Bobb]

@General,

The part where you faded out of the conversation, only returning for a vote change.


You didn't ask any questions or make any attempt to convince. It seemed pretty passive.

I didn't note this until Libro and flat footed both made actions helpful for McGinty's survival in completely different ways.


Libro with the confessed uninformed counterwagon vote and unwillingness to engage with the McGinty question. Flat footed with the "I'm convinced McGinty is town now so I'm going to drop my random vote instead of voting for someone I think is more scummy than McGinty."


Looking back for more of the same you and Xhirilri were added onto the list. You made a list of people who'd look bad if McGinty turned out to be scum. That's where this started.

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Hm. I don't like the top counterwagons right now. I don't really have any reason to lynch or not lynch Duck at this point, I think AV is Town. Could we go for someone else, like Libro or Ramsus?

Tiny bit late for that I think.

Tom the Mime still has two votes I think. Bandwagoning and defending the bandwagon by claiming a role-claim attempt good enough for you?

[Mrs McGinty]

Lex-Cat - roleplay only; null, with a twist of scummy for the lack of any content.

Sapo has only made one post, though there was plenty of content in it. The problem I have with this (aside from it including a bad read of me from someone I think should know better) is that it's the easiest way for scum to look engaged without taking risks. No flow of consciousness, everything pre-prepared means total control. RL could explain it, obvs, but the lack of a reply to me doesn't help with this. I'm giving Sapo a scum lean here.

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Not much from Duck999 (esp. given he was subject to a big wagon early on), but I like him for the suggestion about making a tie to test my vote, and for the hint of the uncertainty I recall seeing before from his town game. Slightly townwards of null.

[GeneralH]

@General,

The part where you faded out of the conversation, only returning for a vote change.


You didn't ask any questions or make any attempt to convince. It seemed pretty passive.

I didn't note this until Libro and flat footed both made actions helpful for McGinty's survival in completely different ways.

Okay thanks.

I was pretty busy yesterday until around the time I made that post and there was a lot to be caught up on, so that's how I caught up. If I was around in the moment then I probably would have asked questions, but who knows?

I also think you're discounting the context of what was going on with McGinty more in the favor of what was going on with *me* - as I mentioned before my early problem with McG was one or two posts, which was easily counteracted by the later, more numerous (and content-ful) posts.

[Bobb]

That's fair. I was literally only reading only your posts to get a read of what you were doing.


Like I said, you are on a contingency list of day one suspects for if a particular poster comes up scum. Nothing to be afraid of. I throw shade a lot, to see what sticks.

edit: moved the 'only' in an attempt to be more clear.

[flat_footed]

AvatarVecna.