Erfworld 71, page 65

[DDL]

Do we know how move works for warlords? As in, do they have their own inherent move (that cannot be exceeded) or do they take the move of their mounts? And if they take the move of their mounts..there's nothing really to stop Parson getting another warlord out there next turn provided he has at least one dwagon and one warlord still in GK: we know the dwagons can hit the rest of the siege and head home next turn, so presumably they can reach GK in a single turn.

So have a dwagon from GK fly halfway out to meet one from the DoD (also flying out halfway), transfer a warlord, the DoD dwagon brings him/her back, and presto: now you have a mass of dwagons with full move AND a warlord. And one fairly tired dwagon.

[SteveMB]

Do we know how move works for warlords? As in, do they have their own inherent move (that cannot be exceeded) or do they take the move of their mounts? And if they take the move of their mounts..there's nothing really to stop Parson getting another warlord out there next turn provided he has at least one dwagon and one warlord still in GK: we know the dwagons can hit the rest of the siege and head home next turn, so presumably they can reach GK in a single turn.

Parson's plan of cycling out dwagons that had taken too many wounds or used up to much move and putting in fresh ones for the next string of raids would seem to imply that warlords take on the move of their mounts (unless the uncroaked warlords have a lot of move).

One of the questions now is whether any dwagons got left back at Gobwin Knob. (It may be that the dwagons from Parson's plan are all ones that had been staged near the site of the original planned ambush, but that just pushes the question back to whether they left any dwagons behind at that time.)

[Jari Kafghan]

The way I see it there is still a possibility that hasn't been explored. I am not sure if it is viable or not, or what kind of move the dragons would need to pull it off. But couldn't Parson simply use the fact that his stacks have commanders to make the whole group retreat?

[SteveMB]

The way I see it there is still a possibility that hasn't been explored. I am not sure if it is viable or not, or what kind of move the dragons would need to pull it off. But couldn't Parson simply use the fact that his stacks have commanders to make the whole group retreat?

Huh? Commanders or not, it's currently Ansom's turn. The dwagons are stuck where they are for now.

The presence of warlords allowed the dwagons to retreat after making surgical strikes on the siege units, thus minimizing the amount of combat (thereby minimizing the wounds they took). That has nothing to do with the present situation.

[Vreejack]

Sometimes, yes. :) But not always. How much Jillian and the Archons want to live to see the end of the war needs to be taken into consideration, too.

Leyte Gulf is probably not applicable here as Parson has a battlefield awareness that Kurita would have thought astonishing. Kurita blew Leyte Gulf because he thought he was up against something bigger, not just a good bluff in bad visibility. You remarks on Jillian and the archons are, of course, appropriate, but for Ansom it is this, now, or his dream of ending Stanley is over.

[Midgititp]

Vreejack:

I think that Ansom anticipated protection from the forest-capable troops both in killing the 19 wounded dragons and later from the surrounding dragons if they chose to counterattack.

Likely if Ansom moves to attack the stack of wounded dragons they'll be stuck out in the open without any backup. Even if they kill all 19 dragons, expect them to take some losses. At which point we're talking about some serious casualties. An archon or a senior warlord (Jillian, Vinnie, Ansom!) will likely die in the initial attack. Then, they have to deal with the dragons in the fort formation alone without any backup.

Is it worth the risk? Jillian will argue that it is not worth the risk to lose the coalition commander. Ansom will worry that Jillian will die. Vinnie will be concerned about Ansom dying too, which is why none of his plans even came close to suggesting 'the Hunt'. I'll bet the Archons will be justifiably worried too, suicide missions are not what they are paid to do.

[Monan]

From the look on the blond Archon's face, fighting that stack will not at all be an easy battle.

I think the surprise was from finding the wounded dwagons. Also, (I know i'm writing this without having the whole thread) trees provide a good amount of hiding space. air over water with no clouds provides none. Therefore that is why the group can see the dwagons one or (possibly) two hexes away. it just makes sence. the dwagons in the trees didn't come out of the foliage until something came into their hex. otherwise they hid. I believe you have to be next to another hex to see what is in there judging from the Tool's reaction.

[Dr. T]

Vreejack:

I think that Ansom anticipated protection from the forest-capable troops both in killing the 19 wounded dragons and later from the surrounding dragons if they chose to counterattack.

Likely if Ansom moves to attack the stack of wounded dragons they'll be stuck out in the open without any backup. Even if they kill all 19 dragons, expect them to take some losses. At which point we're talking about some serious casualties. An archon or a senior warlord (Jillian, Vinnie, Ansom!) will likely die in the initial attack. Then, they have to deal with the dragons in the fort formation alone without any backup. [...]

Undisputed for the part of attacking the 19; Ansom won't have the forrest troups and we don't know if the flyers will be enough. Parson seemed quite confident earlier, but he is worried now.

But if they croack the 19, Ansom and Co. could rejoin the forrest troups.
Combine information on page 56, 60, 62, 65:

Gillian (+Archons + most Giffons) can reach Ansom (=4 moves from any of the lake hexes) and then the column through the big stack (=3 moves); 7 moves in total, Anson+Vinnie can reach the column (=3 moves). Now:

a) Gillian and her group go around dragons to the lakeshore: 2 hex, 5 left
b) Ansom + Vinnie go to lakeshore: 2 hex, 1 left
c) Ansom + Vinnie mount Gwiffons: now they effectively have 5 moves
d) croack dwagons: 4 moves left
e) fly 3 hexes to center to rejoin the forrest troups

Of course, that would require coordination, since they need to inform Ansom where to go to. Since they left the hat, they'd have to use Charlie, again. My guess is, Gillian will botch it in some way. And Ansom or Vinnie will realize, what an opportunity has been wasted due to her idiotism.

[SteveMB]

But if they croack the 19, Ansom and Co. could rejoin the forrest troups.
Combine information on page 56, 60, 62, 65:

Gillian (+Archons + most Giffons) can reach Ansom (=4 moves from any of the lake hexes) and then the column through the big stack (=3 moves); 7 moves in total, Anson+Vinnie can reach the column (=3 moves). Now:

a) Gillian and her group go around dragons to the lakeshore: 2 hex, 5 left
b) Ansom + Vinnie go to lakeshore: 2 hex, 1 left
c) Ansom + Vinnie mount Gwiffons: now they effectively have 5 moves
d) croack dwagons: 4 moves left
e) fly 3 hexes to center to rejoin the forrest troups

Of course, that would require coordination, since they need to inform Ansom where to go to. Since they left the hat, they'd have to use Charlie, again. My guess is, Gillian will botch it in some way. And Ansom or Vinnie will realize, what an opportunity has been wasted due to her idiotism.

D'oh! It hadn't occurred to me that the remaining move of Jillian's force* (at least 7, given that she can reach Ansom from "over the lake" and "one hex away" from the wounded dwagons and then return to the column) and Ansom and Vinny's remaining move (at least 3, given that one of Vinny's plans is to punch through and return to the colum) could be effectively combined -- if they coordinate a rendevous point, and Ansom gets Jillian to follow orders without the psychological advantage of face-to-face contact.

*minus the gwiffon she's conceded will have to be left behind

The plot is even thicker than I'd realized.

[factotum]

A question that occurs to me about move. Does the terrain make a difference to how far a unit can move? Webinar's earlier decision to take the road rather than following the rough terrain suggests that it DOES. (This might explain why Ansom and Co. are so short on move even though the dwagon fort is relatively close to the column).

Now, it's probable that any such terrain penalty would not apply to flying units like Jillian's force, but there's always the possibility that there IS a terrain penalty of some sort for them, in which case, we can't use the simple "one move = one hex" analysis.

[SteveMB]

A question that occurs to me about move. Does the terrain make a difference to how far a unit can move? Webinar's earlier decision to take the road rather than following the rough terrain suggests that it DOES. (This might explain why Ansom and Co. are so short on move even though the dwagon fort is relatively close to the column).

Now, it's probable that any such terrain penalty would not apply to flying units like Jillian's force, but there's always the possibility that there IS a terrain penalty of some sort for them, in which case, we can't use the simple "one move = one hex" analysis.

True, but it's all we have to work with at the moment. Since the relevant terrain is mostly heavy trees, it probably doesn't distort the analysis too much.

[sihnfahl]

A question that occurs to me about move. Does the terrain make a difference to how far a unit can move? Webinar's earlier decision to take the road rather than following the rough terrain suggests that it DOES. (This might explain why Ansom and Co. are so short on move even though the dwagon fort is relatively close to the column).

It does; Webinar was previously mounted on 'heavies' that weren't forest units.
Now, we can't necessarily say why they were short on move; it may just have been that their location, relative to the dwagon fort, may have been a bit of a ways off. When you don't know the starting point, or the starting move values, it's hard to come to conclusions.

Now, it's probable that any such terrain penalty would not apply to flying units like Jillian's force, but there's always the possibility that there IS a terrain penalty of some sort for them, in which case, we can't use the simple "one move = one hex" analysis.

I'd be guessing terrain doesn't matter to flying units; heck, my initial thought that the dwagons couldn't end their turn over water was proven incorrect.

[SauroGrenom]

One thing that strikes me as being important but unclear is the question of how to resolve each "round" in the the turn based battle.

In previous battles, there appears to be a set of expected events. As near as I can guess it goes as follows:

1) Defending Archers get attacks.

2) Each attacking unit makes one attack. (all attackers i recall made one attack before the defenders attacked)

3) Defending units retaliate with one or more attacks (defending dwagons in comic 63 made multiple attacks at once, but perhaps that's a special ability).

4) Cycle repeats?

Whatever the mechanic is, that mechanic is critically important for predicting the outcome of each battle. If I'm right that each attacking unit gets one attack before the defender's attack, then Jillian's small force will deliver one "round" of hits before taking a "round" of hits from the remaining 3 warlords and 10 dwagons. That's almost two "hits" for each of Jillian's forces to take, and Jillian fell to a single hit from a dwagon last time... Depending on the strength of those attacks from the defenders, the wounded could easily slay Jillian and her allies in the defender's round. Thus the "wounded" dwagon stack would only suffer a loss of a few units, while Jillian and Co are totally croaked.

[Midgititp]

Dr. T:

I hadn't thought of that, its a very valid point. Whether or not anyone on Ansom's side realizes it is also a good question.

But I feel that the important point is the losses in the initial assault. Is Ansom prepared to see Jillian die? He did allow her on that scouting mission, but he also did everything possible to protect her and support her.

Is Vinnie prepared to let Ansom stick his neck out that far? We know that stacks with warlords can selectively attack, can they also selectively defend and focus on Ansom himself?

Are the Archons worried about their own mortality?

We don't know the answer to any of these questions. So it'll be interesting to see what comes of it all.

[SmartAlec]

I think the surprise was from finding the wounded dwagons.

I'm not so sure - they all knew they were on the hunt for dwagons, so it seems odd to be surprised to find... dwagons.

[Wender]

Parson's plan of cycling out dwagons that had taken too many wounds or used up to much move and putting in fresh ones for the next string of raids would seem to imply that warlords take on the move of their mounts (unless the uncroaked warlords have a lot of move).

Pages 7 and 69 confirm that.

One of the questions now is whether any dwagons got left back at Gobwin Knob. (It may be that the dwagons from Parson's plan are all ones that had been staged near the site of the original planned ambush, but that just pushes the question back to whether they left any dwagons behind at that time.)

He can't move until the beginning of GK's next turn, at which point all the dwagons reset to max move. Sparing one for a trip to GK and back at dawn should be no problem.

I'm not so sure - they all knew they were on the hunt for dwagons, so it seems odd to be surprised to find... dwagons.

Even if you're looking for them, the sight of 19 dwagons in flight might be awesome indeed--all the more so when you're in plain sight of them and you glow like a beacon.

If the Archons (or that Archon) can see stats, the information that they're really strong and not that badly wounded might also come as a shock. The latter is pure speculation, but it would explain the dropped jaw.

[SteveMB]

He can't move until the beginning of GK's next turn, at which point all the dwagons reset to max move. Sparing one for a trip to GK and back at dawn should be no problem.

The problem is that they clearly don't have the move to make a round trip in one turn. If they did, Parson's original plan wouldn't have needed the donut to protect a forward base; they could have just broken off and returned to GK once they'd gotten too wounded to safely continue.

[Krelon]

Parson needs only one mount per warlord he wants to transfer to the battle line. The warlords can change over to fresh dwagons once they arrive, so movement shouldn't be such a big problem. This ferries can be left to die at the end of turn. If the gain is to be able to perfom hit'n'run, it's definitely worth the cost.

Maybe he needs only one mount... if you look here, lower panel, you see two persons riding one dwagon. Maybe they cannot fight when riding this way but is possible. I imagine Wanda's personal mount (green dwagon) which will be left in GK to increase her mobility.

[Wender]

The problem is that they clearly don't have the move to make a round trip in one turn. If they did, Parson's original plan wouldn't have needed the donut to protect a forward base; they could have just broken off and returned to GK once they'd gotten too wounded to safely continue.

That's including all the move necessary to wipe out 40% of Ansom's siege. Given that Wanda had no problem dropping Jillian off on a dwagon in one turn, I think it's a safe bet that, at the very least, one of the A dwagons could do it. They might be stuck where they are when they get back, but they could do it.

The basic idea here is that Stanley could send Parson out to command the dwagons personally as opposed to disbanding him. If there's no way to do that he'll be even more furious at Parson, which tilts the odds closer to making him a grunt or disbanding him outright, either of which mean a wrenching change of narrative in the best case.

Parson's lack of (visible) stats could mean that he's invulnerable. It could also mean, as it did with new players on a MUSH I frequented that had no stats because they hadn't yet registered for combat, that they automatically lost any fight with any player who was.

[jindra34]

That's including all the move necessary to wipe out 40% of Ansom's siege. Given that Wanda had no problem dropping Jillian off on a dwagon in one turn, I think it's a safe bet that, at the very least, one of the A dwagons could do it. They might be stuck where they are when they get back, but they could do it.

And that was a lot closer to Gobwin Knob than the column. Also the entire flight of dwagon's was staged there thus reducing the movement needed to get to the column.

[Vreejack]

Vreejack:

Likely if Ansom moves to attack the stack of wounded dragons they'll be stuck out in the open without any backup. Even if they kill all 19 dragons, expect them to take some losses. At which point we're talking about some serious casualties. An archon or a senior warlord (Jillian, Vinnie, Ansom!) will likely die in the initial attack. Then, they have to deal with the dragons in the fort formation alone without any backup.

Is it worth the risk? Jillian will argue that it is not worth the risk to lose the coalition commander. Ansom will worry that Jillian will die. Vinnie will be concerned about Ansom dying too, which is why none of his plans even came close to suggesting 'the Hunt'. I'll bet the Archons will be justifiably worried too, suicide missions are not what they are paid to do.

Some truth to all of this but if Ansom wants to "end" Stanley then he needs to take out those warlords now. That probably means getting himself, Vinny, Jillian, her beasts and the archons, along with the most-important pliers to dust those three warlords this turn. Otherwise attacking Gobwin Knob without siege will make a fine demonstration of what a real suicide attack is all about.

Edit: I forgot to add... Suicide missions for the archons probably cost extra.

[Midgititp]

Vreejack:

Good point, but perhaps he could be convinced that even with the loss of the siege that it is possible to win the battle otherwise.

Or perhaps there is a way to save the siege? I dunno.

From a cost-benefit analysis i think you are right, but people (and Ansom and Jillian) are not likely to think of things in those terms when regarding each other. And Vinnie seems already resigned to the idea of losing the siege.

I think the Archons may simply refuse if they think it is too dangerous, "we're mercenaries.. not meat shields!"

[Vreejack]

I agree that even wounded dwagons are deadly. They probably hit just as hard, and since Jillian and Ansom apparently kill the dwagons with one swing anyway then it doesn't matter if they are wounded—that was important for the smaller fighters. But if Ansom just wants to strike, croak the warlords and withdraw like Parson did against the siege then he might be able to pull it off if he has enough move.

If Parson rains down all the dwagons on him next turn he is likely to lose most of them even if he does croak Ansom, and that will lose Parson the war, pliers or no.

[Chewy]

50 bucks says you can't attack then withdraw before defenders even have a single chance to strike back. that would be total abuse. its already shown one unit cna attack multiple times even if they withdrew. so all you have to do is attack withdraw attack withdraw and never take a single loss. it should give the defenders one turn of attack before attackers can withdraw.

[factotum]

If it were possible to attack and then withdraw without taking damage, Parson would already have done it when he ordered the dwagons to attack the siege. Since the dwagons got wounded (archers get their hitsies), it obviously isn't possible to do this.

[Rufus]

There is at least one mechanic that is sufficiently potent to lead to an Enderesque effective instantaneous win from impossible odds, and the authors have set up for it.

Spoiler

Show

Unallied units auto-attack at the beginning of the turn. If the Jetstone alliance is broken up by some sort of coup d'etat attack, then the massed army - composed of troops allied through Jetstone could implode in a a sort of gnab gib.

Since it's possible that knocking off Ansom, or taking Jetstone's capital could be sufficient to trigger that there's room for a desperate gambit, even something like smuggling Sizemore into the opponent's cesspools.

[jindra34]

There is at least one mechanic that is sufficiently potent to lead to an Enderesque effective instantaneous win from impossible odds, and the authors have set up for it.

Spoiler

Show

Unallied units auto-attack at the beginning of the turn. If the Jetstone alliance is broken up by some sort of coup d'etat attack, then the massed army - composed of troops allied through Jetstone could implode in a a sort of gnab gib.

Since it's possible that knocking off Ansom, or taking Jetstone's capital could be sufficient to trigger that there's room for a desperate gambit, even something like smuggling Sizemore into the opponent's cesspools.

Now tell me how to get that done. it would work... if it was controlably executed.

[SteveMB]

There is at least one mechanic that is sufficiently potent to lead to an Enderesque effective instantaneous win from impossible odds, and the authors have set up for it.

Spoiler

Show

Unallied units auto-attack at the beginning of the turn. If the Jetstone alliance is broken up by some sort of coup d'etat attack, then the massed army - composed of troops allied through Jetstone could implode in a a sort of gnab gib.

Since it's possible that knocking off Ansom, or taking Jetstone's capital could be sufficient to trigger that there's room for a desperate gambit, even something like smuggling Sizemore into the opponent's cesspools.

I think you'd have to get the Overlord, not just the Chief Warlord, who is nominally leading the coalition.

[Midgititp]

I agree Vreejack, Ansom would significantly decrease his chances of losing anyone if he simply went in and surgically struck at the warlords, leaving the rest alive.

That's a good plan (storyline wise) actually because it allows Parson to get out while he's ahead, Ansom gets to survive, and Jillian removes the 'traitor' symbol on her head.

The status quo is more or less maintained.

[Vreejack]

I agree Vreejack, Ansom would significantly decrease his chances of losing anyone if he simply went in and surgically struck at the warlords, leaving the rest alive.

That's a good plan (storyline wise) actually because it allows Parson to get out while he's ahead, Ansom gets to survive, and Jillian removes the 'traitor' symbol on her head.

The status quo is more or less maintained.

I was actually hoping that it _would_ shift. I thought I saw what I call a "plot singularity" coming, in which all the threads come together for a moment for the opportunity to tangle, this case mainly being the arkenpliers and a chaotic situation in which they might end up anyplace, even the bottom of the lake.

It looks like I was wrong, however, since it seems pretty clear now that Ansom will somehow be forced into the tunnels, but there is a separate thread on that.