Belkar's Worst Day?

[Peelee]

@PeeLee: Well, the first step would be for Belkar to care about the prediction much. He doesn't remember them, but when he heard the first two prophecies about his death, his reaction seemed mostly quizzical. Did he fail his "Understand Implication" check? Or is he stoic about death?: "when your number comes up, oh well!"

Are you changing your position from "knowing future events cannot change how they play out," to "it totally can, but Belkar simply wouldn't bother?"

[a1chemi]

@PeeLee: Well, the first step would be for Belkar to care about the prediction much. He doesn't remember them, but when he heard the first two prophecies about his death, his reaction seemed mostly quizzical. Did he fail his "Understand Implication" check? Or is he stoic about death?: "when your number comes up, oh well!"

@Kish: Sure, it's a possibility that the Oracle's prophecy magic reshapes probability to create the outcome foreseen. But if that were so, why does he need the memory charm?

It seems more likely to me that the Oracle sees what will happen based on what all of the free-willed creatures involved will choose based on their natures and their state of knowledge, but with the caveat that the prophecy has to be worded in this precise way, or else they will have a different state of knowledge and make different choices. Ie, the prophecy includes itself.

We appear to be in a world in which events are pre-determined, so just like with Odin's predictin of death and destruction, Belkar knowing (or not knowing in this case) the result of the prophecy is simply a part of the timeline that leads to the predicted result.

The oracle's actions are part of the events leading to the prophecy. He doesn't alter the course of reality. He just knows how it will work out given his own actions and that of others.

The Oracle knows these things with amazing specificity too. He predicted his own death and the exact time and circumstances well enough to arrange his resurrection. As such I am certain he has known how Belkar will die the entire time.

Sadly, the most logical outcome is Belkar is lost to the Snarl, precluding his resurrection and satisfying the "last breath ever" part. Though personally I'm still hoping for a more satisfying ending to Belkar's redemption arc than martyrdom.

Maybe the weakening of the fabric of reality will have an effect on the prophecy and somehow pre-emp it. Would be weird without some foreshadowing though.

[alwaysbebatman]

Are you changing your position from "knowing future events cannot change how they play out," to "it totally can, but Belkar simply wouldn't bother?"

My position was definitely never "knowing future events can't change how they play out." My position is: the prophecy doesn't abrogate free will, it knows in advance and takes into account all free-willed decisions that will lead to itself coming true. And the prophecy takes itself into account: if the prophecy is something the person hearing would want to avoid, it will be phrased in a misleading way or otherwise not be self-defeating, or sometimes self-fulfilling.

And the memory charm makes it so the Oracle can say things about the future that would be self-defeating, except that the people involved won't remember. And Belkar's death wasn't a particularly good example of that, because it isn't immediately obvious what he would do about such a non-specific prophecy of doom if he DID remember.

[Kish]

Okay, you seem to have read what I said exactly backwards.

If the Oracle's magic reshapes future events then what you said, in which it is obvious that Belkar's current lack of knowledge of the prophecy cannot be instrumental to the prophecy coming true:

just knowing death is coming soon wouldn't do anything to help Belkar avoid it...

is accurate.

If the Oracle foresees what will happen but does not affect it (my preferred interpretation), then if any aspect of the story were different than it is that might, in the realm of pure speculation, lead to a different outcome than will take place. That very much includes "Belkar doesn't know about the prophecy that he will die, and he's going to die, if he did, perhaps he would act in a way that would prevent his death. Most simply, maybe he'd decide the Order's quest wasn't more important to him than his life and leave the group and go back south, thus avoiding whatever's going to kill him."

That said, adding on to what Peelee said, the Oracle has demonstrated himself, very overtly, that someone who knows he's going to die, and can do nothing to avert the fact of his death, can still arrange matters to make his killer suffer--even if we take as written that Belkar could not arrange his own resurrection due to the "last breath ever" clause.

[alwaysbebatman]

Yeah, I must have misunderstood, sorry. So you do NOT interpret it that the prophecy directly effects probability to force its outcome? Me, neither.

Re: "making his killer suffer"...

He could only do that if he knew in advance who his killer was. Or do you mean that the Oracle is his "killer" in some sense just because he predicted it? I can't agree with that.

None of the prophecies have enough information for Belkar to take effective action against them. Quitting the Order wouldn't help: the Oracle never said that he'd die in the course of this quest, he just implied that he'd die soon.

If he had made the prophecy so that Belkar could remember and IF that had led him to quit the Order, we could pretty confidently conclude that that decision would lead to his doom. (Or to the exact words of the prophecies being fulfilled in some manner.)

[RatElemental]

What makes a prophecy unofficial?

I purport that all prophecies are official. If they weren't, then the would be no purpose to the memory charm. The only thing the green glowy speech baloon does is allow memory of the prophecy to pass through the memory charm.

The oracle's own words are that his prophesies are only "on the record" when he does his little light show with green speech bubbles thing. There's nothing that says an unofficial prophecy is any less accurate than an official one.

It is possible, but unlikely.

[Peelee]

The oracle's own words are that his prophesies are only "on the record" when he does his little light show with green speech bubbles thing. There's nothing that says an unofficial prophecy is any less accurate than an official one.

It is possible, but unlikely.

"On the record" means "you will remember this." Calling some an unofficial prophecy indicates that it may not be an actual, correct prophecy, even if that isn't intended. It's an informal code word. After all, if the only difference between the two is whether a given person remembers it (as the Oracle's own words indicate), then why bother differentiating?

[Peelee]

The third prophecy is made with only Roy present, and the Oracle claims to believe (incorrectly) that Roy will forget that part. But he could very easily know better, and be lying about thinking that the memory charm will work.

For what purpose?

[alwaysbebatman]

giqio was some sort of weird bot that copied and pasted passages from earlier in the thread. I was who originally said that, but with more context. The context was that I think that the Oracle is misleading Roy with the Belkar prophecies in some way for reasons not yet clear. And that misleading him about the memory charm might play into that.

I happily admit that it's not at all clear to me what the Oracle's game might be, or how it will all play out.

[Peelee]

giqio was some sort of weird bot that copied and pasted passages from earlier in the thread. I was who originally said that, but with more context. The context was that I think that the Oracle is misleading Roy with the Belkar prophecies in some way for reasons not yet clear. And that misleading him about the memory charm might play into that.

I happily admit that it's not at all clear to me what the Oracle's game might be, or how it will all play out.

Blarg.

Anyway, do you have any proposals on how or why the Oracle pretending to not know that the memory charm didn't affect Roy that time would play into anything?

[Fyraltari]

Blarg.

Anyway, do you have any proposals on how or why the Oracle pretending to not know that the memory charm didn't affect Roy that time would play into anything?

It could be so that Roy doubts the Oracle's omniscience but I can't see what the point of that would be and Roy has not (to our knowledge) thought about it so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[alwaysbebatman]

Blarg.

Anyway, do you have any proposals on how or why the Oracle pretending to not know that the memory charm didn't affect Roy that time would play into anything?

Not really. But it plays into the unanswered question of "why would the Oracle give Roy a free prophecy on a question Roy never asked in the first place?"

The Oracle seemed to be telling him in the context of conversation: "I figured 'why not screw with him,' since the halfling won't be around much longer, anyway". But if he expected the memory charm to work, Roy wouldn't remember any of that. Just "the Oracle gave me a free prophecy on something I never would have asked. Weird."

[Peelee]

Not really. But it plays into the unanswered question of "why would the Oracle give Roy a free prophecy on a question Roy never asked in the first place?"

The Oracle seemed to be telling him in the context of conversation: "I figured 'why not screw with him,' since the halfling won't be around much longer, anyway". But if he expected the memory charm to work, Roy wouldn't remember any of that. Just "the Oracle gave me a free prophecy on something I never would have asked. Weird."

Well, the stated purpose of the Memory Charm is to not let knowledge that the Oracle lets slip influence events. So my first guess would be that only Roy knowing might be an influence on the prophesied events.

[Jasdoif]

Well, the stated purpose of the Memory Charm is to not let knowledge that the Oracle lets slip influence events. So my first guess would be that only Roy knowing might be an influence on the prophesied events.

It could possibly be an attempt to get the screwed up plot sequence back on track, I suppose.