Belkar and the Oracle's prophecy

[Yanisa]

There's a thread dedicated to this, but it got necroed

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showt...-s-Death-Scene

As of #992, Belkar had ~3 weeks to live.

And #922 was at the start of the Godsmoot. Since then only 1 day has past, so there isn't a lot to update on said list.

[Ornithologist]

Lucky for me,

I have been keeping this in my sig for this exact situation.

[Synesthesy]

I don't think that Belkie will die at all, so....

Well, I have two more question that are tied to this thread (and the "death" of Belkar that may happen or not).

First, I don't think that he's changing his alligment so far, but surely from the first strips to now he gained some wisdom, actually a lot of that. Do you think that Belkar will ever cast a spell as a Ranger? We know that he can, as he casted some healing on Elan in the first strips under the effect of "Owl's Wisdom". Maybe he will gain enough of it to cast something usefull and unexpected to (help) defeat Greg?

Second, do you think that we'll se Belkar rage, as he had at least 1 level of barbarian? Maybe against Greg? We know that when Thog used his rage, he was truly angry. I think that Greg can make Belkar feel enough angry to do this...

[Peelee]

I don't think that Belkie will die at all, so....

So you think the Oracle lied?

[factotum]

So you think the Oracle lied?

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...

[Synesthesy]

So you think the Oracle lied?

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...

I was trying to speak about some other things related to the end of Belkar's story :P

I hope that there will be a Belkar arc before the end... Now we know the background of Roy (his family, his father, his ancestor...), Haley (her father, the thieves' guild, the city where she was raised...), V (hir family, hir children, hir master, ...), Durkon (his homeland, his culture, his parents...), Elan (his father and the backstory of Nale); but we don't know anything about Belkar's past, the only thing we know is that he's shorter then the average halfling. And that he hates kobolds. Why does he hate them?

[Domino Quartz]

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

The Oracle doesn't just make random predictions - he gets his knowledge of the future from Tiamat. He doesn't just make stuff up.

[hamishspence]

And even when he's not speaking green text, his predictions are consistently accurate. Like when he mentions "a pair of family reunions" (Elan with Nale, Roy with Julia).

[Peelee]

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...

Oh, I know, bit it's good to know for sure.

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

You think several prophecies from an actual prophet who has never been wrong before are wrong, without any indication in the story that he will be wrong? Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking?

[Quartz]

And #922 was at the start of the Godsmoot. Since then only 1 day has past,

How do we know that?

[Sir_Norbert]

The Oracle doesn't just make random predictions - he gets his knowledge of the future from Tiamat. He doesn't just make stuff up.

And it's possible for Tiamat to be wrong, too. Having a prophecy is not the same as having knowledge.

That said, I'm in the camp that believes Belkar will die, because most of the reasons I can think of why an author would introduce a prophecy at all involve it coming true later in the story. It's usually done to give readers a little hint about what will happen, and then surprise them about how it will happen. The resolution "actually, Tiamat was simply wrong" is much harder to do in a satisfying way, and therefore seems much less likely to be our author's intention.

We'll just have to see, though.

[Yanisa]

How do we know that?

First off, small correction, I meant 992, not 922. Which is logically because the source post end at 992...

Up until 1090ish only one day has past, which is what I was thinking off. We had a sneaky day pass which I kinda missed the first time, but on rereading yeah two days have past. To recap some highlights:
#992 Party debarks at the Godsmoot
#1027 Party leaves the Godsmoot. A lot has happened, but not a single day has past.
#1031-1042 is a break to Team evil. Also an timeskip for our group, but they stay on the same day, except it's evening now.
#1044 Bandana says "I'm going to turn in. See you two in the morning."
#1049 is that new day. You can see the sky color difference between #1044&#1049
#1081-1089 is a break to Team Hell. Also an timeskip for our group, but they stay on the same day, except it's evening now. (Déjà vu)
#1094 Minrah asks "Why are you skulking after midnight?" Which means another day has past. When exact I don't know. Might even be after the timeskip at #1090.

And to recap the recap:
Day 25 - Strip 992 Party debarks at the Godsmoot. From the post here.
Day 26 - Strip 1049 Party arrives at the mountain pass. The sky is bright again, in contrast to the last time we saw them, strip 1044.
Day 27 - Strip 1090/1094 Party arrives the dwarf temple(?). Because they are skulking after midnight that proves a day has past

[hamishspence]

How do we know that?

Roy says that it'll be "at least a day" to get to Firmament

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1030.html

Evening that same day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1044.html

Morning the next day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1049.html

They have an encounter with giants

They prepare to take a rest, since they expect to be at Firmament that night:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1080.html

Hel makes it clear that they'll be there before midnight of that same day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1084.html

So basically you're looking at a day and a half, or so - leaving Godsmoot midday (plus or minus a few hours) of Godsmoot Day, 24 hours later they've had their giant encounter, 12 hours later it's nearly midnight, and they're arriving at Firmament to fight the vampires.

If Minrah says it's right after midnight though - Hel's estimate may be a few minutes off.

[Quartz]

Excellent summations, thank you.

[Sencara]

So out of all this... Has anyone figured out when Belkar's birthday is? Just wondering is all.

[Kish]

No. Probably not even Rich.

[martianmister]

So out of all this... Has anyone figured out when Belkar's birthday is? Just wondering is all.

It's November 11. Rich told me.

[Synesthesy]

You think several prophecies from an actual prophet who has never been wrong before are wrong, without any indication in the story that he will be wrong? Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking?

Yes I think that the oracle could be wrong, both for wishful thinking and for actual reasons (and meta reasons, too).

But I don't try to convince anyone. Everyone here is thinking about how the story will end, and everyone have his own version. I think that the Giant will surprise us, but I have a lot of ideas about how he'll do. As everyone here.

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

And you say that the oracle "has never been wrong". Did he? Some of his prophecy were a little "stretched"... And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him. Right, the Oracle wanted to be killed to activate the mark of justice, knowing that he'll be resurrected soon, but it's not the point.
So, I think that oracle's prophecy are often true, but not always: because there is free will and people can change their destiny, as Belkar is already doing. Or because they are written in a way that they seem to mean a thing and instead they mean another one, like Durkon's prophecy (after death is not the same thing as after becaming undead).

And last, I don't think that Elan would think that an ending where some order member die as a "happy ending", even if it's Belkar death; and this time there won't be a happy wedding and family reunion and dinosaur ride after Belkar's death...

PS: actually, the Oracle was wrong once. He thought that Ghost Roy would forget everything after being banished, and he didn't. It's a little mistake, but still he doesn't know everything.

[Kish]

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

Way too many people are insisting on that for it to be a surprise.

And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him.

Huge assumption there.

[Peelee]

Yes I think that the oracle could be wrong, both for wishful thinking and for actual reasons (and meta reasons, too).

But I don't try to convince anyone. Everyone here is thinking about how the story will end, and everyone have his own version. I think that the Giant will surprise us, but I have a lot of ideas about how he'll do. As everyone here.

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

And you say that the oracle "has never been wrong". Did he? Some of his prophecy were a little "stretched"... And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him. Right, the Oracle wanted to be killed to activate the mark of justice, knowing that he'll be resurrected soon, but it's not the point.
So, I think that oracle's prophecy are often true, but not always: because there is free will and people can change their destiny, as Belkar is already doing. Or because they are written in a way that they seem to mean a thing and instead they mean another one, like Durkon's prophecy (after death is not the same thing as after becaming undead).

And last, I don't think that Elan would think that an ending where some order member die as a "happy ending", even if it's Belkar death; and this time there won't be a happy wedding and family reunion and dinosaur ride after Belkar's death...

PS: actually, the Oracle was wrong once. He thought that Ghost Roy would forget everything after being banished, and he didn't. It's a little mistake, but still he doesn't know everything.

Belkar wanted a refund for his prophecy. The Oracle was not going to give him one, because the prophecy was going to come true. If the prophecy wasn't going to come true, the Oracle wouldn't have prophesied it. Belkar would have killed the Oracle regardless.

Also, the Oracle said there would be a happy ending, at least for Elan. The "at least for you" part strongly implies that there will be an unhappy ending for someone.

Lastly, yes, you're absolutely correct. The Oracle has been wrong before, in thinking Roy wouldn't remember their chat. Let me rephrase: the Oracle has never yet been wrong in his prophecies, whether on or off the record.

[Kish]

What Elan asked is, "Will this story have a happy ending?" If the definition of "a story with a happy ending" is "none of the six biggest-role non-antagonist characters dies," I guess the vast, vast majority of stories are tragedies.

I don't think the Oracle could have gotten out of being stabbed by giving Belkar the refund, either. He was as dead as Solt Lorkyurg from the second Belkar came back into the Sunken Valley without Roy there to restrain him.

I think it's entirely possible the Oracle meant Roy to remember what he said. Of course, that only changes "the Oracle was wrong" to "the Oracle was lying," still allowing plenty of loopholes for Belkar to survive with, should someone be looking for them and willing to disregard the prophecy.

[Manga Shoggoth]

Since the "oracle is mistaken/lying/inaccurate" arguement has come up, I thought it might be worth reposting this table that covers the Oracular predictions made for a previous discussion. Amazingly, I don't think it needs updating (apart from the formatting commands...).

Spoiler: The original post, as near as I can get it

Show

For my own edification, I did a little digging (anything to avoid the hell that is my daughter tidying her room...)

The Oracle makes statements about the future, and also answers straight questions as well. Here are all the Oracular statements that I cound find, on the record or not. (Spoilered for length, answers "on the record" are bolded):

Issue	Item	Status
#329	Offscreen: The Oracle predicted that one supplcant would die of a Heart Attack. Was sued by his family as a result and instituted the Test of the Heart as a precaution	Fulfilled
#329	Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA (Oracle also explains why the memory charm is there)	Pending
#330	Where is Xykon/In his throne room	Valid, albiet useless
#330	Looking forward to the book publishing to understand Haley	Valid, and slightly more useful
#330	Two of you are running late for family reunions	Fulfilled
#330	Not accepting cheques as he has seen their futures	Pending
#331	How will I be returning to my homeland/Posthumously	Pending: Starting to be fulfilled after becoming a vampire
#331	How will I achieve Ultimate Arcane Power/Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasons	Deal with the IIFC
#331	(Presumably) How will I get my speech back/When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouth	Culmination of date with Not-Elan
#331	Will this story have a happy ending/Yes, for you at least	Pending.
#331	Do I get to cause the death of any of the following.../Yes	Oracle killed by Belkar; other (possibly spurious) interpretations offered.
#331	(Complex question to identify the next gate Xykon is aiming for/Girard's Gate (after trying to warn Roy that his question had a flaw in it)	Fulfilled: Xykon went to Azure city first, then went to Giriad's gate.
#331	Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bilboa	Unclear as we don't know the exact question.
#568	Offscreen, the Oracle creates the village of Lickling as he knew he was going to be stabbed.	Fulfilled
#571	Offscreen, the Oracle arranges for a Raise Dead.	Fulfilled
#571	The Oracle arranges for a Ressurection on 26-Mar-1187 15:10.	Pending
#572	Several items about Belkar's end, including one "On the Record" so it would get through the memory charm (Unnecessarly, as it turns out).	Pending
#572	Important client flying in	Fulfilled (Black Dragon)
#628	Offscreen, the Oracle provides V's name to the Black Dragon	Correct
SOD page 23	The "Ghost Dad" quip will be funnier later	Unclear, depends on your sense of humour
SOD page 23	Who killed my master/Xykon	Correct
SOD page 23	The Oracle has a date with a hot chick and will be getting to second base.	Unknown, and I really don't want to know...

So, we have:

13	items Fullfilled or Correct
6	Items Pending
3	Items of unknown provinance
0	Items known to be false

We have no evidence that the Oracle has lied about the future at any time, on or off the record. That's not to say he can't, just that he hasn't. The closest to this we have are:

• The alternate interpretations given for Belkar's answer, and his question was wide open to interpretation.
• The "The Oracle is Out" sign up when Xykon paid a call.
• NEW: In #572, thinking that Ghost!Roy need an "on the record" prophecy to remember the comment about Belkar's death. (Being mistaken is not lying, and in this case he is not mistaken about prophecy, simply the effects of the memory charm)

Perhaps I should get out more often...

We have no evidence that the Oracle is lying about the future, and very little evidence that the Oracle has lied on screen (and most of that evidence is debatable).

On the other hand, every single statement about the future (on the record or not) is either fulfilled, yet to be fulfilled or of unknown provenance. Not one statement about the future has been proven false.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bibola

Typo: that'd be bilboa, not "bibola"

GW

[Manga Shoggoth]

Typo: that'd be bilboa, not "bibola"
GW

Thank you - correction made. My spelling does tend to be a little rocky...

[hroþila]

I think the interpretation of the "Ghost Dad" quip is wrong here: the Oracle didn't look into the future to see whether the joke would be funny, but to see that Eugene would indeed die and appear in the comic as a ghost. 100% correct.

[alwaysbebatman]

Since possibly-misleading wording tends to be relevant to prophecy in general, and to the Oracle's prophecies specifically, I think an accounting is in order of the exact words of the numerous ways that the Oracle implied that Belkar's death was impending.

#329: "...the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA..."
#329: "...he should savor his next birthday cake..."
#572: "...your pal isn't long for this world..."
#572: (On the record) "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year."

The implication of all those predictions is the same: Belkar's death. But I suspect that Mr. Burlew was challenging himself by hemming himself in with words that have to be true, and yet have a plot twist that still surprises the audience.

ETA: Also, I find it suspicious that the Oracle found four different ways to imply Belkar's death, but never came out and said it. There's probably a reason for that. Note: the Oracle seriously dislikes Roy, Durkon, and especially Belkar.

IF I'm right, what circumstance OTHER than death could fulfill the literal words of all four prophecies?

I'd say that the two from #329 can be dismissed outright. Maybe the OOTS-world stock market is going to crash, maybe his next birthday cake will be especially delicious.

The exact words of the two from #572 are far more constraining. Belkar will leave this world, and permanently stop breathing before the end of the year.

What are some circumstances that literally fulfill this? One would be a nice permanent trip to the Outer Planes, maybe somewhere in the range between Tartarus and Gladsheim-- he wouldn't need to breathe there. Oh, wait. That IS death.

Other possibilities? It could be argued that the place where the original soul of a vampire is trapped is another plane of existence, not "this world." And vampires do not (generally) breathe. Cons to this theory: it's been argued that this would be too much a retread of the Durkon* storyline. And it would involve seeing Belkar's early life, which the author has said he doesn't want to delve into because it may evoke sympathy for a character he does not intend to be sympathetic.

Other possibilities? A trip to the astral plane maybe? One word --"ever"-- constrains any such off-world trip to one from which he either never comes back, or comes back in a form that doesn't breathe...

Thoughts?

[Peelee]

What are some circumstances that literally fulfill this?

No good ones have come up over the years. The most common is vampirization, which we now know would still kill Belkar while having someone else pilot his body. Ideas about the astral plane or other things don't take into account that he would still age, so far as the birthday cake line goes. Notwithstanding that it's a bit silly that the Oracle would take joy in pointing out the Belkar's untimely demise if, in fact, he doesn't. Especially since Belkar never remembers it or has any big reaction to it.

[alwaysbebatman]

Certainly, Vampirization is a form of "death" in the sense of "those various weird states of being that D&D denizens for some reason lump together and call 'death'." It is not becoming "Mister-Not-Appearing-in-this-Book." It's not plot-death, any more than Roy's was or Durkon's is (yet.)

There are definitely plenty of other explanations for the birthday cake and IRA lines.

Notwithstanding that it's a bit silly that the Oracle would take joy in pointing out the Belkar's untimely demise if, in fact, he doesn't. Especially since Belkar never remembers it or has any big reaction to it.

I'm sorry, what exactly are you getting at here?

[Fyraltari]

Wait, has March the 26, 1187 gone by ? Because if it has not it means the Oracle has prophecized Hel's defeat since there would need to still be a world for him to be killed by that druid.

[Synesthesy]

Wait, has March the 26, 1187 gone by ? Because if it has not it means the Oracle has prophecized Hel's defeat since there would need to still be a world for him to be killed by that druid.

And actually that would kill a lot of tension....


However, proving that someone has never been wrong doesn't mean that he'll always be right. Neither it proves that the Oracle can't lie to this monkey people he really doesn't like.

I'd like to add one thing:

Spoiler: The original post, as near as I can get it

Show

For my own edification, I did a little digging (anything to avoid the hell that is my daughter tidying her room...)

The Oracle makes statements about the future, and also answers straight questions as well. Here are all the Oracular statements that I cound find, on the record or not. (Spoilered for length, answers "on the record" are bolded):

Issue	Item	Status
#329	Offscreen: The Oracle predicted that one supplcant would die of a Heart Attack. Was sued by his family as a result and instituted the Test of the Heart as a precaution	Fulfilled
#329	Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA (Oracle also explains why the memory charm is there)	Pending
#330	Where is Xykon/In his throne room	Valid, albiet useless
#330	Looking forward to the book publishing to understand Haley	Valid, and slightly more useful
#330	Two of you are running late for family reunions	Fulfilled
#330	Not accepting cheques as he has seen their futures	Pending
#331	How will I be returning to my homeland/Posthumously	Pending: Starting to be fulfilled after becoming a vampire
#331	How will I achieve Ultimate Arcane Power/Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasons	Deal with the IIFC
#331	(Presumably) How will I get my speech back/When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouth	Culmination of date with Not-Elan
#331	Will this story have a happy ending/Yes, for you at least	Pending.
#331	Do I get to cause the death of any of the following.../Yes	Oracle killed by Belkar; other (possibly spurious) interpretations offered.
#331	(Complex question to identify the next gate Xykon is aiming for/Girard's Gate (after trying to warn Roy that his question had a flaw in it)	Fulfilled: Xykon went to Azure city first, then went to Giriad's gate.
#331	Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bilboa	Unclear as we don't know the exact question.
#568	Offscreen, the Oracle creates the village of Lickling as he knew he was going to be stabbed.	Fulfilled
#571	Offscreen, the Oracle arranges for a Raise Dead.	Fulfilled
#571	The Oracle arranges for a Ressurection on 26-Mar-1187 15:10.	Pending
#572	Several items about Belkar's end, including one "On the Record" so it would get through the memory charm (Unnecessarly, as it turns out).	Pending
#572	Important client flying in	Fulfilled (Black Dragon)
#628	Offscreen, the Oracle provides V's name to the Black Dragon	Correct
SOD page 23	The "Ghost Dad" quip will be funnier later	Unclear, depends on your sense of humour
SOD page 23	Who killed my master/Xykon	Correct
SOD page 23	The Oracle has a date with a hot chick and will be getting to second base.	Unknown, and I really don't want to know...

if you read the prophecies that Manga Shoggoth listed, you'll notice one things: no prophecy, with 3 exceptions, are clear in their meaning. Because when the Oracle said that, things like "Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasons" or "When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouth" didn't mean anything. Only after the events they got their meaning.

The 3 exceptions are:

• Roy's question about what gate Xykon will reach first
• When Durkon will return to his homeland
• Belkar's death

Well, from our beloved characters' point of view, the first two where wrong! Not because they actually were wrong, but because the common interpretation was wrong.

• Roy did understand that the next gate Xykon would reach was Girard's, while it was actually Azure City's
• Durkon did understand that he'll die somewhere, then buried in his homeland.

So, actually, the prophecy are right only if when written they are not understandable. If we (and the Order) understand them, the way we understand them is wrong. And if it was Roy's fault if his question was wrong, Durkon didn't think about undeads when he heard "Posthumously".

So I think that the same will happen to Belkar: I don't think he'll die, if we define "die" as "disappear from oots' world".