MitD XIII: Learning is happening

[Wizard_Lizard]

We see the MitD putting crosses on several doors at once. If he knew which one led to the gate, wouldn't it make more sense to only mark that one? By marking several, he decreases the time it takes until his bluff is exposed (i.e. every door is marked and the Gate hasn't been found).

But by marking several doors he increases the chance of marking the correct one.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

But by marking several doors he increases the chance of marking the correct one.

Which proves he doesn’t know what the right one is. And if he doesn’t mark the right one, it increases the chances of the bad guys finding it.

Grey Wolf

[Keltest]

Which proves he doesn’t know what the right one is. And if he doesn’t mark the right one, it increases the chances of the bad guys finding it.

Grey Wolf

I think there was a thread on this at one point that said yes, the MITD's actions are, statistically, more likely to hinder Team Evil than help them. But that was a while ago.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

I think there was a thread on this at one point that said yes, the MITD's actions are, statistically, more likely to hinder Team Evil than help them. But that was a while ago.

I remember the thread, and I believe the conclusion is that it was a statistical equivalence, but a "maybe worth it" risk: there is a chance he would eventually force them to start over, and a chance he will speed them up, and they cancel each other out statistically, but might be worth it as a gamble. More importantly, like O-Chul points out, MitD is now clearly trying to hinder Team Evil, which is an advantage in and of itself.

Grey Wolf

[Crusher]

Last Crusade absolutely gives it a run for its money. Henry Sr. practically steals the whole movie, and Brody is just a delight. And they brought Sallah back (I can't quite say why, but Sallah is an absolute treasure of a character. Then again, I apparently think John Rhys-Davies can do no wrong), so bonus points there. But Raiders is on my list of damn near perfect movies. When I asked it to my wife for the first time, she said she felt like she had seen most of it already, since so many scenes have been parodied, homaged, or just memed.

Also, I have yet to see anything Gilbert and Sullivan ever did, despite Sallah and West Wing making just hilariously amazing references to them.

You HAVE to see the Kevin Kline version of Pirates of Penzance, its gloriously ridiculous.

[Crusher]

STAND BY, MY HAWK-MEN!!! DIIIVE!!!!

OMG! That bit was amazing! Speaking of gloriously ridiculous movies, Flash Gordon was an underappreciated treasure. I probably watched it 20 times as a kid.

[Aspheric]

Which proves he doesn’t know what the right one is. And if he doesn’t mark the right one, it increases the chances of the bad guys finding it.

Grey Wolf

I can't wait till it gets down to three doors, one of which contains the Gate, and the other two do not. Then MitD can at last step out of the darkness and reveal that he's not a Protean, not a Uvuudaum, not a Slaad, but Monty Hall himself.

[Darth Paul]

I can't wait till it gets down to three doors, one of which contains the Gate, and the other two do not. Then MitD can at last step out of the darkness and reveal that he's not a Protean, not a Uvuudaum, not a Slaad, but Monty Hall himself.

What few people realize is: Monty Hall was a Protean. His form had the extraordinary ability to summon 5-speed blenders and light appliances at will.

[Ruck]

I can't wait till it gets down to three doors, one of which contains the Gate, and the other two do not. Then MitD can at last step out of the darkness and reveal that he's not a Protean, not a Uvuudaum, not a Slaad, but Monty Hall himself.

What few people realize is: Monty Hall was a Protean. His form had the extraordinary ability to summon 5-speed blenders and light appliances at will.

Yes! I support these theories because I get to be right and get to explain the Monty Hall Problem again.

[Crusher]

Yes! I support these theories because I get to be right and get to explain the Monty Hall Problem again.

I intellectually know how that works, and I've even explained it to others, but in my gut I still feel its wrong.

[Peelee]

I intellectually know how that works, and I've even explained it to others, but in my gut I still feel its wrong.

The easiest way I've found to explain it for people who still just feel like it shouldn't be is to ridiculously scale it up. Three doors makes your gut feel weird things. But a billion doors? You pick one, good ol' Monty opens up 999,999,998 doors, so two are left. Your options now are your literal one in a billion guess was correct, or Monty knows the score and is trying to thumb the scales for ya. Your gut should feel a lot more secure now.

[Wizard_Lizard]

Has anyone checked myths and legends for mysterious creatures shrouded in darkness.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Has anyone checked myths and legends for mysterious creatures shrouded in darkness.

Yes.

Grey Wolf

[thelivingmonkey]

Yes.

Grey Wolf

We have reached the intellectual peak of this thread.

[Darth Paul]

We have reached the intellectual peak of this thread.

And now it's all downhill until we vote for the title of the next one.

[Kish]

I remember the thread, and I believe the conclusion is that it was a statistical equivalence, but a "maybe worth it" risk: there is a chance he would eventually force them to start over, and a chance he will speed them up, and they cancel each other out statistically, but might be worth it as a gamble. More importantly, like O-Chul points out, MitD is now clearly trying to hinder Team Evil, which is an advantage in and of itself.

Grey Wolf

pendell posted saying what he was doing was well-intentioned but not wise, and I responded with this:

If the implication that he was inadvertently helping Xykon and Redcloak was accurate, there would be no need for them to search anything close to all the doors--they could just go through one of them and mark off three others at random every day. They're searching every door because they have to. Effectively, their methodical search has just been ruined; "they" eliminated three doors without searching them at all and there is no reason to assume the Gate isn't behind one of them.

From their perspective, they're in exactly the same position before: each day they randomly choose a door to search. The change is that now, there's a possibility that they'll wind up with all the doors marked and still not have found the Gate even if it's as simple as "it's behind one of the doors."

I think the fact that it's doors is confusing people. Look at it in terms of numbers on a die. The initial game is: Roll a d100 until you roll a 100, then you win. What the creature in the darkness is doing is effectively adding: Every time you roll, I roll three times, and if I roll a 100 before you do, you lose.

Looking at it in terms of statistics is deceptively simple: even if the Gate is simply behind one of the doors, the chances of finding it by searching all of them has been taken from certainty to uncertainty, and that's a statistically infinite loss for Team Evil.

[Peelee]

pendell posted saying what he was doing was well-intentioned but not wise, and I responded with this:

I think the fact that it's doors is confusing people. Look at it in terms of numbers on a die. The initial game is: Roll a d100 until you roll a 100, then you win. What the creature in the darkness is doing is effectively adding: Every time you roll, I roll three times, and if I roll a 100 before you do, you lose.

I wanted to make an similar analogy but with a "guess the number" game. MitD has a greater chance of hitting the correct one before Reddy and Xykon, so it's obviously a desirable gambit.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

pendell posted saying what he was doing was well-intentioned but not wise, and I responded with this:

I think the fact that it's doors is confusing people. Look at it in terms of numbers on a die. The initial game is: Roll a d100 until you roll a 100, then you win. What the creature in the darkness is doing is effectively adding: Every time you roll, I roll three times, and if I roll a 100 before you do, you lose.

Looking at it in terms of statistics is deceptively simple: even if the Gate is simply behind one of the doors, the chances of finding it by searching all of them has been taken from certainty to uncertainty, and that's a statistically infinite loss for Team Evil.

That "infinite loss" implies that if they run out of unmarked doors, TE can't start over. But they can. At best, if MitD happened to randomly mark off the correct door, TE will have to eventually start over, possibly with RC's more methodical approach. It buys time, but nothing else.

Now, time is important - but just as it might cost TE time, it might gift them time, by having eliminated x incorrect doors they will no longer have to spend x days searching.

(This is, of course, ignoring that plot happens at the speed of plot and the OotS will arrive precisely at the correct time for Plot to happen, regardless of anything Xykon, RC and MitD do)

I wanted to make an similar analogy but with a "guess the number" game. MitD has a greater chance of hitting the correct one before Reddy and Xykon, so it's obviously a desirable gambit.

I'm not sure the implied assumption that MitD is marking unexplored doors every day is correct. For all we can tell, that was a one-off. And if it was, MitD does not have a greater chance than Xykon.

Grey Wolf

[Fyraltari]

Actually I’m not so sure of what would happen should they run out of doors. Will they suspect the Gate of having been hidden elsewhere? Will they realize what has happened? And then will they suspect each other, the MitD or the bugbears?


Also at what point will Oona opposé their going in and destroying her tribes ressource source? Her participation was due to her wanting to be sure they don’t kill too many monsters, after all.

[Kish]

That "infinite loss" implies that if they run out of unmarked doors, TE can't start over. But they can. At best, if MitD happened to randomly mark off the correct door, TE will have to eventually start over, possibly with RC's more methodical approach. It buys time, but nothing else.

That assumes that they go right back to searching all the doors over again if all the doors wind up marked, instead of going, e.g., "This is clearly a red herring and we need to look elsewhere." And either way...

Now, time is important - but just as it might cost TE time, it might gift them time, by having eliminated x incorrect doors they will no longer have to spend x days searching.

If they would go to Door 16 next, but because of the creature in the darkness they instead go to Door 19 next, there's no advantage in that at all, since Door 78 is no more likely to have the actual Gate than Door 3. The likelihood of finding the Gates increases with the number of doors they've actually searched, which isn't going up from the creature's actions, not with the number marked, which is.

[dmc91356]

Do we know that Team Evil is solely operating under the idea that the gate is behind one of the doors? I ask this because, if they are not so operating, then there is an added benefit to MitD marking off unexplored doors in that, if the gate is behind one of them, there is not a 100% certainty that Team Evil starts over when all doors are marked, there is the added chance that they take a step back and think, "hey, someone is running a con on us and we need to maybe locate that gate somewhere else."

Of course, if the whole door array is, in fact, a con, then MitD is doing them a favor by marking off doors.

All depends on your assumptions, I guess.

[Fyraltari]

I'm not sure the implied assumption that MitD is marking unexplored doors every day is correct.

We know this isn’t the case, as the MitD asks if he can do the paint job this time.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

The likelihood of finding the Gates increases with the number of doors they've actually searched, which isn't going up from the creature's actions, not with the number marked, which is.

No, the likelihood of finding the door, assuming that MitD didn't mark it, does go up if he marks more and more incorrect ones, since it reduces the search space.

Statistically, it's a wash: a small chance of stopping them from finding it at all, compensated by the statistical chance they will find it quicker because MitD removed multiple invalid doors from the search space.

We know this isn’t the case, as the MitD asks if he can do the paint job this time.

We don't know how often has asks it, though. Maybe every couple of day,s maybe this was the only time.

Grey Wolf

[Peelee]

I'm not sure the implied assumption that MitD is marking unexplored doors every day is correct. For all we can tell, that was a one-off. And if it was, MitD does not have a greater chance than Xykon.

Grey Wolf

Is there any narrative reason for the author to show us something that other than to imply that the MitD is actively hindering their search? If it were simply showing that the MitD's loyalties have shifted, a single line of dialogue could have done that. Instead, I believe the scene implies an ongoing effort.

[Fyraltari]

Is there any narrative reason for the author to show us something that other than to imply that the MitD is actively hindering their search? If it were simply showing that the MitD's loyalties have shifted, a single line of dialogue could have done that. Instead, I believe the scene implies an ongoing effort.

Actions speak louder than words. Beside even if it is just a one-off it has a chance of working.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Is there any narrative reason for the author to show us something that other than to imply that the MitD is actively hindering their search? If it were simply showing that the MitD's loyalties have shifted, a single line of dialogue could have done that. Instead, I believe the scene implies an ongoing effort.

"A single line of dialogue" is tell, don't show. I think Rich wanted to show, not tell, and then have O-Chul deliver the line anyway. Again: I'm not saying it might not be the case. We just don't know that it is. And as Fyr points out, that he has to ask permission to carry the paint implies he doesn't do it every day.

Grey Wolf

[Kish]

No, the likelihood of finding the door, assuming that MitD didn't mark it, does go up if he marks more and more incorrect ones, since it reduces the search space.

Sure. But the part I bolded is like saying, "The likelihood of finding the door goes up if you ignore the reason it doesn't go up." Number of unexplored doors before and after the creature marks doors: unchanged. One of the creature's marks doesn't go with "the Gate isn't behind here."

[Peelee]

Actions speak louder than words.

"A single line of dialogue" is tell, don't show.

Grey Wolf

Shown already. Nothing bad about telling after to reinforce.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Sure. But the part I bolded is like saying, "The likelihood of finding the door goes up if you ignore the reason it doesn't go up." Number of unexplored doors before and after the creature marks doors: unchanged. One of the creature's marks doesn't go with "the Gate isn't behind here."

No, but it is by far the most likely scenario. Bayesian statistics are like that, and it is also why the action is a statistical wash: the tiny chance of MitD rendering the first pass invalid is cancelled out by the far greater statistical chance that he just saved TE 5 days of searching.

Which is why I said what I said:

there is a chance he would eventually force them to start over, and a chance he will speed them up, and they cancel each other out statistically, but might be worth it as a gamble.

Grey Wolf

[Peelee]

Would it really force them to start over, though? Imean, sure, eventually, given enough time. But if I was playing a "which door is it" game, and believed I opened all the doors without finding the prize, my first thought would be "well, maybe it's none of the doors and the answer is something else," not "time to go back through the doors again."