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    Default Re: Game of Thrones Season 8 (spoiler tags)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mechalich View Post
    Exactly how is Dany losing the war? Dany smashed the Lannister-Tarly force at the Blackwater Rush, leaving her with only whatever remnants survived that attack, escaped the sack of Casterly Rock, or were sheltering in the city. Cersei had maybe 5,000 men at her disposal in total at the end of Season 7 (yes King's Landing has a City Watch of several thousand, but they're a thuggish police force, not an army). Even with the addition of the Golden Company's twenty thousand Dany still has her outnumbered.

    For the most part, Westeros has largely lost coherent authority. Cersei controls the Crownlands in the immediate environs of King's Landing, the traditionally Lannister Westerlands, and some portion of the Reach that joined her under the Tarlys. She has access to the resources of the Iron Islands through her alliance with Euron, but that appears to be limited to ships only. That's it. Dorne, the Stormlands, the Riverlands, and the majority of the Reach (including Oldtown, the second largest city on the continent) are currently operating independently with it totally unclear who controls any of them (this is a major oversight since the Dornish remain wholly undamaged by war and the bulk of the Stormlands and the Reach's strength hasn't fought since the Battle of Blackwater years earlier). The Vale is also independent though it has an alliance with the North.

    Dany's forces outnumber pretty much everyone else in Westeros who currently has forces in the field, which a huge portion of the continent does not, combined. She could have taken King's Landing with almost trivial ease. The problem is that her forces are primarily Dothraki and taking King's Landing using that force would have meant a massive sack for the ages and would have poisoned the currently non-aligned lords against her, leading to at best a very prolonged castle-by-castle campaign to subdue the continent. And in any case she got distracted by the giant army of ice zombies and re-positioned to deal with that instead.

    Now, that move may ultimately cost Dany everything, but existential threats do change the calculus. Winning control of Westeros is pointless if everyone dies the day after.
    Perhaps I spoke too strongly. Bear in mind I have consistently said Dany is in the best position of anyone to defeat the Night King and Cersei, so I understand the position she is in.

    That said, Tyrion's strategy cost her all of the allies I mentioned and helped secure an alliance between Cersei and Euron. *DANY'S* strategy obliterated the Lannister-Tarly forces and sent Jaime scurrying back to Cersei defeated and with no morale, practically ready to sue for peace.

    Dany will continue to lose more people in the North against the Night King, and potentially another dragon as well. Meanwhile Cersei is replenishing her forces with the Golden Company. If Dany keeps fighting as Tyrion advises, I'm not sure she will win the war. If she fights the war as she thinks she should, then yes, she will curbstomp everyone and take the throne.

    Remember, if she had listened to Tyrion, she wouldn't have an alliance with the North now either. I know she's in the best position of anyone right now, but my point in saying it can be argued that she's losing the war is more to say that her strategy right now is not good and is costing her.
    Tywin, acting in his capacity as Hand of the King, gave Walder Frey overlordship of the Riverlands as part of his reward for the Red Wedding, displacing House Tully and several other more powerful houses (including, ostensibly, Littlefinger, who as Lord of Harrenhall controlled the largest fief in the region). The Freys ought to have been able to call on the support of all the other Riverlands houses in order to besiege Riverrun, but when they call came out, everyone else thumbed their noses at them. That's a big loss, especially as the Riverlands are one of the populous regions in Westeros. At no point in Cersei's attempts to defend Westeros from Dany did she rally any Riverlands troops and after Arya murdered all the Freys the region reverted to de-facto independence.
    Sure, but the same can be said about the North as well. Tywin didn't have the allegiance of the Houses of the North, but he had the allegiance of the Warden. He may not have all of the Riverlands stepping over themselves to swear allegiance, but he no longer has armies rebelling against the crown. I don't think Tywin thought for a moment that all the Houses were now loyal to Lannister and Bolton and Frey, but I do think he thought the war was over and no one would be marching against the crown and its allies.
    The Vale, like all the other sub-kingdoms, has its own feudal lords with their own holdings and troops, subject to all the same sort of loyalty issues we're currently seeing on display with the northern lords. Littlefinger had control over their nominal liege in the Arryns, but that's not enough for them to answer a call for a war they find frivolous, wasteful, or overly dangerous. However, because of the Red Wedding (and subsequent atrocities) Ramsay Bolton was incredibly unpopular and the various lords and knights of the Vale raised no objections to marching hundreds of miles north to punch him in the face. If not for the Red Wedding that would have been a really, really hard sell, especially given that most of the lords of the Vale don't actually like Littlefinger.
    Yes but Littlefinger is an unforseen complication. Tywin's strategy is sound and would have worked. The North did not take it upon itself to rally together and take back Winterfell, and the Vale did not take it upon itself to go support this cause. For all intents and purposes, Tywin quelled the rebellion. When Littlefinger was sent to the Eyrie, Lysa was still alive and she had *NO* intention of moving against the Lannisters at all. Littlefinger was sent there as a reward for his service and to secure House Arryn and the Vale to not move against the crown.

    The Red Wedding itself is not enough to get the Vale to march on House Bolton. But it was enough to end the war. That Littlefinger is scheming doesn't take away from Tywin's strategy except for the fact that he wasn't aware of Petyr's ambitions and audacity.
    Tywin secured a warden in the North (Bolton) and in the Riverlands (Freys). The Tyrells joined up for their own reasons following Stannis using magic to murder Renly - which Tywin was emphatically not responsible for doing, though he did successfully exploit the situation. Tyrion, actually, is the one who secured a (temporary) peace with Dorne via a marriage alliance.
    The point is that Tywin stopped the war. Tywin didn't kill Renly but he doesn't have to, he has to have the know-how and acumen to use it to his advantage, which he did. He arranged a marriage between Margery and Jeoffrey, and Loras and Cersei.

    Tywin is probably *the best* player of the Game of Thrones in the entire show.
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  2. - Top - End - #122
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    Default Re: Game of Thrones Season 8 (spoiler tags)

    Quote Originally Posted by gomipile View Post
    Did this thread give up on spoiler tags, or is the thread title accurate? I'm trying to figure out what should or doesn't need to be tagged if I join the discussion.
    Don't look at me, I can't control these people

    I've definitely given up on the walls of text though...

    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
    Quote Originally Posted by gogogome View Post
    Cheers to Psyren the MVP "naysayer".
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  3. - Top - End - #123
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    Default Re: Game of Thrones Season 8 (spoiler tags)

    ~"Jon is white and Daenerys is red."

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmerwald1915 View Post
    YMMV. Malifice would probably describe her as Black, what with the power-hunger he places at the center of her character.

    (I, of course, will not try, not having seen enough of the show.)
    I can see a wee bit of black (keywords: pragmatism, selfishness at the expense of others, and amorality), but I think that she is a lot closer to red (keywords: impulse, emotional action, chaos, spontaneous action, freedom, action, and short sighted). She loves fire and dragons. So she uses dragons and fire to solve her problems . . . you know the fun way.

    ~"If a dragon does not want you to ride it, then you die! Lets go ride dragons!" <she is a bit crazy in the chasing danger thing, and she could have also read the body language of the dragon>

    Fire (red)
    Dragons (red)
    Freedom though Action (red)
    Living though Being Present (red)

    Red and white both value Heroism
    Chaos (red) over Order (white)
    Libertarian (red) over Authoritarian (white)
    Red sees white as Repressed, white sees red as Aimless
    Red sees white as Compromising, white sees red as Inconsiderate

    Below are the WotC core keywords for the colors.

    Black
    [B] Pragmatism
    [B] Selfishness at the expense of others
    [B] Amorality
    [B] Selfishness above all else
    [B] Selfishness
    [B] Omnipotence
    [B] Paranoia

    Red
    [R] Impulse
    [R] Emotional Action
    [R] Chaos
    [R] Spontaneous Action
    [R] Freedom
    [R] Action
    [R] Short Sighted

    White
    [W] Morality
    [W] Laws of God
    [W] Laws of Spirit
    [W] Order
    [W] Laws of Man
    [W] Uncreative
    [W] Peace
    [W] Law

    Blue [U]
    [U] Logic
    [U] Intellectual Theory
    [U] Technology
    [U] Intellectual Application
    [U] Intellect
    [U] Omniscience
    [U] Inaction

    Green
    [G] Instinct
    [G] Natural Decisions
    [G] Interdependence
    [G] Natural Survival
    [G] Naive
    [G] Growth
    [G] Nature
    Last edited by darkrose50; Today at 12:38 PM.

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