Erfworld 81, page 75

[rosebud]

Regarding Surfling Halforc's comments, I generally agree.

Even before the turn, Charlie's Archons were a troublesome part of the story. Yes, they have the cheeky coolness, but they altered the plot as well and also irritated Parson when they first appeared. Are they a counterbalance to Parson? Perhaps, but the situation was already unbalanced before he arrived.

As for the rest of it, yeah, it was forced. Is that a critical flaw? No. Aside from not being our tale, I don't know what is to come to pass yet and reserve judgement. But the tale we were set up to watch is not to be.

[Lamech]

Ansom's NOT the Faction leader? Are you sure of that? If Ansom's not the leader who is? I really think Ansom is the faction leader, he's always leading and telling the other guys what to do and making the plans and orders and...

King Slately, read the cast page.

In short, given the apparent ease of victory the previous group had over 3 Warlords.. I do indeed think that Jillian, the Archons (Who seem to be combination Thinkomancer-awesometastic fighters) Ansom, Vinnie, and the Gwiffons in reserve can beat the forces Stanley is likely to be able to gether. Remember, he lost a LOT of dwagons just now..

Umm... I don't think that Ansom will beat Stanley. Stanley could bring two warlords plus himself and the hammer, the knights can ride dwagons which stanley has 24 of. So here's the break down: Vinny thought they should be able to run past six dwagons by losing the bats so 6 dwagons and Vinny and Ansom can stop at most 6 dwagons. One dwagon should be able to handle a gwiffion, so the gwiffions are out with two dwagons. I doubt Jillian would last long against a dwagon with Stanley heaving lighting on top of it, so Jillian and another dwagon are out. That leaves 15 dwagons or 5 per archon. I truly doubt the archons can take 5 dwagons with knights on top a piece.

The dwagons, if Stanley goes after Ansom, probably wouldn't have the move to return to GK, since they started way out in the field to begin with. Since Ansom is the Chief Warlord, and not the Faction Leader, croaking/capturing him doesn't end the fight - so Stanley would be out in the field and possibly vulnerable.

Unless Ansom was holding the coalition together, or the elves are accused of betraying the coalition, then the coalition could break apart quickly.

[Jari Kafghan]

Also remember that from what we have seen so far it seems that the army whose turn it is gets the first strike. capabilities. Ansom Jillian and the Archons might not get to take a swing.

[factotum]

Let's address this point of Parson's supposed incompetence in placing the dwagons. As I see it, there were a number of factors influencing his decision as to where to place them, which I'll list here.

A-dwagons:
1) Had to be close enough to the column to be able to take out Ansom's remaining siege next turn, or else the whole plan collapses anyway.
2) Needed to be placed in a position where, if discovered, they couldn't easily be attacked--by placing them over water Parson ensured that only flying units could attack them.

B-dwagons:
1) Had to be close enough to the column for Ansom to reach them and punch through the weak hex, but not so close that he could do so and then retreat to the column once he discovered the deception.
2) Had to be in a location where there were at least 7 hexes of heavy forest in order to be able to make the formation.

Both stacks:
1) Had to be close to each other. Bear in mind that Ansom will have tracked which direction the A-dwagons took when they left the column, and will have searched in that direction; he had to find the "fort" while doing so or the whole "trap" part of the plan becomes pointless. We assume the A-dwagons didn't have a lot of move left, so Parson didn't have much flexibility in misdirecting Ansom here.
2) Ideally had to be out of range of most of Ansom's fliers, since those were the greatest danger to both sets of dwagons.

That's a heck of a lot of requirements, and the simple fact is, we don't know if there was any possible solution other than the one Parson came up with--we don't have enough detail about the battlefield or Ansom's deployment. It could be that Parson had to place the dwagons as he did. Given that, it was still massive bad luck that Jillian both found the A-dwagons and then broke Wanda's control spell in order to attack them.

[Bongos]

King Slately, read the cast page.

Nope, I don't buy it. Last I looked Prince Ansom was doing all the leading. He is the faction leader.

I have this to base it on

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0034.html

Cheif Warlord to the King sure, but Vinnie says it himself, Stanley has done little to Jetstone and Prince Ansom is leading this fight and organized the faction alliance for personal reasons.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Nope, I don't buy it. Last I looked Prince Ansom was doing all the leading. He is the faction leader.

I have this to base it on

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0034.html

Cheif Warlord to the King sure, but Vinnie says it himself, Stanley has done little to Jetstone and Prince Ansom is leading this fight and organized the faction alliance for personal reasons.

Prince Ansom and Parson are equal but opposites.
King Stately and Stanley are equal but opposites.

Ansom is the field commander, but the King is the King. And the Tool is the Tool. Even if he is a tool!

[Bongos]

Parson does'nt want to fight but has to,
Ansom does'nt have to fight but wants to.

This is Ansom's personal beef with Stanley and how he came to
power, we don't know anything about King Stately yet, he could
be an old senile figure head for all we know.

The other tribes/ groups etc have real reasons to be against Stanley, but it's Ansom and his leadership that has brought them together.

I can't even remember if King Stately is mentioned in the whole comic except in the cast list.

[Rutee]

Umm... I don't think that Ansom will beat Stanley. Stanley could bring two warlords plus himself and the hammer, the knights can ride dwagons which stanley has 24 of. So here's the break down: Vinny thought they should be able to run past six dwagons by losing the bats so 6 dwagons and Vinny and Ansom can stop at most 6 dwagons. One dwagon should be able to handle a gwiffion, so the gwiffions are out with two dwagons. I doubt Jillian would last long against a dwagon with Stanley heaving lighting on top of it, so Jillian and another dwagon are out. That leaves 15 dwagons or 5 per archon. I truly doubt the archons can take 5 dwagons with knights on top a piece.

You're not thinking like this is a strategy game! Kniggits and Dragons are different unit types. Mounts are for the Overlords/Casters only, seemingly. While I can't prove that Mounts are definitively Overlord/Caster Only, I can tell you that there is not a single nameless Mount-rider thus far in the strip. This does not make it impossible, of course. That and..

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0071.html

Note the matchup. Quite a few dwagons, 3 (uncroaked) Overlords, on Stanley's side.
Archons, Gwiffon Stack(s?), Vinnie, Ansom, Jillian.

I will grant these Dragons were wounded. There were still quite a few of them there, completely wiped out. One must surmise one of a few things:

1: Jillian, the Archons, Vinnie, and Ansom are incredibly powerful named characters
2: This one's less clear. There are Gwiffon Stacks. I consider this fairly likely, if you look at the swarm behind Jillian here: http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0069.html.

True, they might not have had a lot of move, but if you presuppose that, you're basically saying that the named characters make very large groups of Dwagons moot. I suspect the odds are a /lot/ better for STanley with "Gwiffon stacks, non-Godlike Overlords, and Archons" then they are with " Godlike Overlords, and Archons vs. 2 Chumps and one decent Overlord with an artifact"

Now, all that said, I don't think the odds are in STanley's favor either way, though with the Foolamancer, he can (Potentially) selectively smack down Ansom then withdraw and Veil (I don't see him using Parson's tactics, to be honest, but then, he thinks it was his idea).

Unless Ansom was holding the coalition together, or the elves are accused of betraying the coalition, then the coalition could break apart quickly.

Doubtful. Everyone there's been maligned by Stanley, or is incensed at him. They may have needed Ansom to bring them together in the first place, but at this point, I doubt it. And why would the elves be called traitors? =/

Also remember that from what we have seen so far it seems that the army whose turn it is gets the first strike. capabilities. Ansom Jillian and the Archons might not get to take a swing.

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0055.html
They do. I presume counterattacks are traded even when you get killed. Otherwise, we're talking about UNWOUNDED powerful named heroes with an army of (Potentially) unwounded Gwiffons, all with incredible Command bonus vs a group of less powerful heroes, probably better mooks, probably a weaker Command bonus. Stanley might be able to pull a kill off with the (Likely wounded) setup listed above, but he is going to be wounded by them if he can, and he is going to want to veil himself.

Cheif Warlord to the King sure, but Vinnie says it himself, Stanley has done little to Jetstone and Prince Ansom is leading this fight and organized the faction alliance for personal reasons.

Nope. He may be considerred the CiC, but he's still not faction leader, unless Ansom has absolutely, positively no troops in the fray from the Jetsone (I will not say /that/ is impossible. I do find it unlikely, though). Simple fact is that he wouldn't be able to lead them there if his King didn't want them to go.

The other tribes/ groups etc have real reasons to be against Stanley, but it's Ansom and his leadership that has brought them together.

And they're there now. You don't think they're going to pack up and go home if Ansom gets whacked, do you? :P

[SteveMB]

Mounts are for the Overlords/Casters only, seemingly. While I can't prove that Mounts are definitively Overlord/Caster Only, I can tell you that there is not a single nameless Mount-rider thus far in the strip.

What's the name of the gobwin riding the dwagon that uses Bogroll's parasol for target practice?

[JazzManJim]

A warlord who came into existence not already knowing all this stuff is a profoundly alien concept to her, and everybody else in Erfworld. Sizemore comes the closest to wrapping his head around it, and he knows magic theory, not military tactics.

...

Again, expecting her to understand that Parson needs to be taught this stuff is like expecting an ordinary real-world person to understand that someone who asks "How do I get to the bus station?" needs an explanation that includes the definitions of "street," "intersection," "left," "right," etc.

Nonetheless, she did know that he didn't know, so it's no longer an alien concept to her.

What she did was tantamount to your meeting that strange person, patting them on the behind, telling them to "read a map", then giving them a friendly shove out into traffic.

Wanda may be a lot of things, but she's not suicidal. Not giving Parson the very important information about veiling is pretty damned close to suicidal behavior. Now, it could be argued that perhaps Wanda doesn't want GK to win, or doesn't care one way or the other, but Stanley sure as heck wants to beat Ansom. And he knew about Parson's knowledge gaps, too. And he stayed silent also.

That's just not believable to me.

[fendrin]

What's the name of the gobwin riding the dwagon that uses Bogroll's parasol for target practice?

or the gobwin spidew-rider on page 2?

Wanda may be a lot of things, but she's not suicidal. Not giving Parson the very important information about veiling is pretty damned close to suicidal behavior. Now, it could be argued that perhaps Wanda doesn't want GK to win, or doesn't care one way or the other, but Stanley sure as heck wants to beat Ansom. And he knew about Parson's knowledge gaps, too. And he stayed silent also.

That's just not believable to me.

How about this: they didn't tell him because they did not consider it to be an option. The eyemancer link is too valuable to split up (while they are running the fight from within GK, anyway). Why tell him about something that he can't use? it would probably just confuse him more, or cause a fight.

Or for that matter, Wanda has seen him already make one huge mistake with the eyemancers (talking to Misty), why would she mention something that could cause him to make an even worse mistake (sending the foolamancer into the field).

Also, at that point, Stanley is unhappy with parson, and considering just getting rid of him (essentially). If he's just going to dump him like a bad habit, why bother educating him?

[sihnfahl]

The other tribes/ groups etc have real reasons to be against Stanley, but it's Ansom and his leadership that has brought them together.

But, if they get the idea that Stanley's out in the field and potentially vulnerable, they'll pounce, Ansom or no.

Also, since Ansom's the Jetstone Chief Warlord (and NOT their leader), all the Jetstone units will still be in place. Slately does a field promotion (presumably Webinar)... and a wounded Stanley ends up facing the entirety of the Alliance Air Force under the command of a new Chief Warlord.

I can't even remember if King Stately is mentioned in the whole comic except in the cast list.

He's not mentioned anywhere but in the cast list. Since Jetstone lacks look and thinkamancers, Slately relies upon his warlords to handle all the coordination in the field, presumably with occasional messages being sent back and forth by their own hats to keep him informed... or for him to alter their orders.

[Rutee]

What's the name of the gobwin riding the dwagon that uses Bogroll's parasol for target practice?

That one I deliberately ignored; I've seen too many games with a combat/non-combat divorce of what's allowed to take a joke seriously :P

or the gobwin spidew-rider on page 2?

At the beginning of the war? That could go either way. That might have just been a gobwin Warlord, before Stanley's all got whacked. On the one hand, I don't see him promoting a Gobwin, but on the other, it could have been built (Did Parson mention that you can't really tell what kind of Overlord is built?), or it could be left over from the last King (Why disband a Warlord when they're so /expensive/ to promote, unless they're just utterly woeful?) Nonhuman Warlords are definitely possible, after all.

[Bongos]

There would be no faction/ alliance without Ansom. His strength is leadership, how do you get strong in leadership without leading.

There would be Marbits and Elves, acting separately, and possibly not able to defeat Gobwin Knob on their own.

...but it is Ansom holding their alliance together. He may have the Kings permission to lead this battle, but it's Ansom's personal motivation that is really leading Jetsone into the battle.

Stanley has'nt done much to make Jetstone an enemy, but his rise to power is personally offensive to Prince Ansom.

King Stantley may rule Jetstone, but it's Prince Ansom that is leading and commanding the alliance against Gobwin Knob.

[Dragonath]

There would be no faction/ alliance without Ansom. His strength is leadership, how do you get strong in leadership without leading.

There would be Marbits and Elves, acting separately, and possibly not able to defeat Gobwin Knob on their own.

...but it is Ansom holding their alliance together. He may have the Kings permission to lead this battle, but it's Ansom's personal motivation that is really leading Jetsone into the battle.

Stanley has'nt done much to make Jetstone an enemy, but his rise to power is personally offensive to Prince Ansom.

King Stantley may rule Jetstone, but it's Prince Ansom that is leading and commanding the alliance against Gobwin Knob.

And what evidence is there for that ?

Can it not be possible that King Slately asked or ordered Ansom to end Stanley's excistence.

And what if Ansom dies ? Don't you think Slately wants him avenged?

Heck, he would come out riding into battle himself if Ansom died, as far as we know.

Your assumption is based on your opinion, not facts.

At this point, we cannot tell if the coalition will fall apart if Ansom dies. There is simply no way to prove it, yet.

[SteveMB]

Not giving Parson the very important information about veiling....

How would she know that veiling (among any of a thousand other things he doesn't know about) was something she needed to mention? Remember, Parson never got a chance to explain his plan before implementing it.

She knows intellectually that Parson lacks basic background information, but she has no frame of reference for what that means and no knowledge of her own in how to conduct a basic education. She certainly didn't have the time to even mention, much less explain, all the things a warlord would ordinarily be expected to know (Parson's been there, what, a day and a half?).

Edit: If anything, Erfworlders (well, Wanda and Sizemore) have probably been dealing with Parson's ignorance unrealistically well, because the concept of people pre-loaded with the knowledge they need (including the concept "everybody else is pre-loaded with the knowledge they need") is so alien to us (meaning both the audience and Rob & Jamie).

[Surfing HalfOrc]

Also, at that point, Stanley is unhappy with parson, and considering just getting rid of him (essentially). If he's just going to dump him like a bad habit, why bother educating him?

Maybe because they just spent $M350K on Parson? If I spent that kind of money, you can bet I would be using that asset to it's maximum capacity even if I had to train him how to walk in a straight line!

Parson is no "Status Symbol" to impress the Joneses across the street. He was purchased with a purpose in mind. He was used for part of his purpose, and now he's being tossed aside for no real reason. And before you say "He lost the battle," see my entire argument about the battle being "forced" by the authors, and not the characters.

[Lord Zentei]

Maybe because they just spent $M350K on Parson? If I spent that kind of money, you can bet I would be using that asset to it's maximum capacity even if I had to train him how to walk in a straight line!

Parson is no "Status Symbol" to impress the Joneses across the street. He was purchased with a purpose in mind. He was used for part of his purpose, and now he's being tossed aside for no real reason. And before you say "He lost the battle," see my entire argument about the battle being "forced" by the authors, and not the characters.

Well, to be fair, Stanley is an idiot and may have given up on the whole defending Goblin Knob thing altogether: having lost all trust in Parson and Wanda, he's going it on his own. Note he says that he doesn't know whether they betrayed him, it makes sense he's not relying on them under those circumstances.

[Freederick]

The dwagon beatdown wasn't fair. That Parson, a "Master Strategist," would not have anticipated Jillian's flight path was a "cheat."

I agree with you completely. Every newbie who plays "Civilization" on odd weekends knows enough to count move hexes for a possible retaliation. That Parson, the ultimate strategy gamer, wouldn't have done so stretches credibility to the breaking point.

Note that Parson's error was not due to his unfamiliarity with Erfworld. It was an elementary error of turn-based mechanics, made by someone who played strategy games for years, studied this particular scenario for months, and conferred with a local expert (Misty) on unit move mechanics just prior to sticking his foot in his mouth. Seen in this context, panels like the one below are lame and totally out-of-character, a clumsy attempt by the authors to paper over the plot pothole.

Stanley is booping right when he says Wanda and Parson have failed. But while Wanda's failure may be rationalized away by mitigating circumstances (a situation she didn't anticipate, emotional misjudgement, the Archons' timely and decisive interference), Parson's error is a total non-sequitur. Suspension of disbelief my arse. I'm still enjoying the comic, but I enjoy it a shade less now.
___________________________________
Edit: Strangely enough, I also find myself liking Parson more. I guess this is a sort of metagame-thinking: now that the authors have betrayed him, he has become even more sympathetic as an underdog. He stands alone against the Titans, his very creator bent on humiliating him.

[SteveMB]

Maybe because they just spent $M350K on Parson? If I spent that kind of money, you can bet I would be using that asset to it's maximum capacity

You mean, like the way he used the 11 cities he used to have to their maxiumum capacity?

The dwagon beatdown wasn't fair. That Parson, a "Master Strategist," would not have anticipated Jillian's flight path was a "cheat."

I agree with you completely. Every newbie who plays "Civilization" on odd weekends knows enough to count move hexes for a possible retaliation. That Parson, the ultimate strategy gamer, wouldn't have done so stretches credibility to the breaking point.

You just lost me. Are you talking about predicting a flight path, or about counting hexes and determining which units are within range without regard to specific flight paths?

I've already explained the problem with the former (it requires a prediction of a combined "search pattern until she rationalizes an excuse to ditch that mission, then a beeline for the hole in the donut from wherever she is at that moment" path). As for the latter, that's what he did ("his air forces mostly can't reach" implies that he has determined which enemy units do and do not have sufficient move to get there).

[Freederick]

You just lost me. Are you talking about predicting a flight path, or about counting hexes and determining which units are within range without regard to specific flight paths?

I've already explained the problem with the former (it requires a prediction of a combined "search pattern until she rationalizes an excuse to ditch that mission, then a beeline for the hole in the donut from wherever she is at that moment" path). As for the latter, that's what he did ("his air forces mostly can't reach" implies that he has determined which enemy units do and do not have sufficient move to get there).

It was the latter. And my beef is precisely this: Parson knew which units could reach where, and how strong said units were. Knowing that, he should not have put his "A" dwagons in the harm's way, in a hex that he knew Jillian, the Archons, Ansom, Vinnie, Webinar and a handful of gwiffons could reach. He had other, better options. He could have split the wounded dwagons, minimizing worst-case casualties. He could have put them elsewhere, at the cost of destroying less siege (say, 30% instead of 40%). He could have mixed the wounded dwagons with the healthy (risking suspicion on Ansom's part, yes, but playing it safe). A number of reasonable alternatives have been discussed in this thread.

What really mattered, as he knew full well, was sparing the dwagons, and hitting the siege again on the next turn. Instead he put his own boops in the vise, and acted surprised when the screw started to turn--even though a counterattack was exactly what any reasonably competent gamer should have expected. That's lousy newbie gaming--not in character for Parson as he has been characterized so far.

[Surfing HalfOrc]

You mean, like the way he used the 11 cities he used to have to their maxiumum capacity?



You just lost me. Are you talking about predicting a flight path, or about counting hexes and determining which units are within range without regard to specific flight paths?

I've already explained the problem with the former (it requires a prediction of a combined "search pattern until she rationalizes an excuse to ditch that mission, then a beeline for the hole in the donut from wherever she is at that moment" path). As for the latter, that's what he did ("his air forces mostly can't reach" implies that he has determined which enemy units do and do not have sufficient move to get there).

Yes, but if Jillian "mostly can't reach" from her initial position, it makes it even LESS likely to stumble over the dwagons. First, she mills about looking for Ansom. Then she ditches Webinar. THEN she makes a bee-line for Ansom.

Even Jillian realises that she might have to leave a gwiffen behind to pull a rescue mission off. Cutting it mightly close. But she tosses the rescue mission to beat the hell out of the dwagons, and Ansom somehow "knows" where Jillian is to come to her "rescue," even though she never gave her location during her phone call!
http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0074.html

Before you say Ansom spotted the lake in the background look closely at the picture. Nothing but blue sky. No distinguishing landmarks. No way for Ansom to deduce her location and expend his remaining moves to jump to her rescue.

Jillian had to provide hex coordinates when she took out the troll and three skellys. Nothing was said or even implied that the Archon's spell provided grid-coordinates, GPS position or any other location data. If someone calls you with a cell phone, do you know where they are, unless they tell you? Ansom's biggest weakness is lack of Intel.

But suddenly, magically, he gets the information he desperatly needed BEFORE he fell into a trap. And uses it to leap boldly to Jillians side, "Saving the Day." More than a little unbelievable. More than a little stretch.

[Freederick]

Before you say Ansom spotted the lake in the background look closely at the picture. Nothing but blue sky. No distinguishing landmarks. No way for Ansom to deduce her location and expend his remaining moves to jump to her rescue.

Jillian had to provide hex coordinates when she took out the troll and three skellys. Nothing was said or even implied that the Archon's spell provided grid-coordinates, GPS position or any other location data. If someone calls you with a cell phone, do you know where they are, unless they tell you? Ansom's biggest weakness is lack of Intel.

But suddenly, magically, he gets the information he desperatly needed BEFORE he fell into a trap. And uses it to leap boldly to Jillians side, "Saving the Day." More than a little unbelievable. More than a little stretch.

Magically hits it right on the head. My guess is that, once Ansom got the love letter/suicide note, he coughed up the shmuckers for Charlie to tell him where the Archons were--something Charlie knew very well. Possibly the information was even free--Charlie is "allied" with Jetstone now, and it is only reasonable to give your own coordinates to your allies.

[SteveMB]

He could have put them elsewhere, at the cost of destroying less siege (say, 30% instead of 40%).

No, he couldn't. He had to eliminate Ansom's ability to attack the walls before his window of opportunity closed (i.e. Ansom's air cover returned en masse). Otherwise, he might as well have stayed in bed.

He got about 40% on the first turn. On the second turn, he could have used all the dwagons (roughly doubling his force), but some of them would be the slower ones (i.e. unable to make as many attacks and still get home, which shaves some off that doubling). Ergo, if all had gone according to plan, he would have succeeded, but by a slim margin -- he simply did not have the luxury of accepting a tradeoff that would destroy fewer siege units.

Yes, but if Jillian "mostly can't reach" from her initial position, it makes it even LESS likely to stumble over the dwagons.

Huh? "His air units mostly can't reach" refers to the quantity of units that can and cannot reach, not to the move of any individual unit.

First, she mills about looking for Ansom. Then she ditches Webinar. THEN she makes a bee-line for Ansom.

I'm not sure what relevance ditching Webinar has, since that didn't use any of her move. According to her rationalization, it seems that she searched until she was close to the point of no return (i.e. just enough move left to rescue Ansom), and that tipped the balance.

[Freederick]

No, he couldn't.
/snip/
...he simply did not have the luxury of accepting a tradeoff that would destroy fewer siege units.

Well, he ended up accepting a rather bigger tradeoff, didn't he.

[SteveMB]

Well, he ended up accepting a rather bigger tradeoff, didn't he.

He gambled; he lost. If he hadn't taken the gamble, he would have definitely lost (i.e. Ansom would still have had a significant force of siege units left when he got to GK).

[Freederick]

He gambled; he lost. If he hadn't taken the gamble, he would have definitely lost (i.e. Ansom would still have had a significant force of siege units left when he got to GK).

Ansom does. That comes under the "definitely lost" heading, doesn't it?. Had Parson played it safer, he could have gotten perhaps 70%-80% of the siege, with minimal own losses (the dwagons in the weak hex). By playing it incompetently, he got 40% of siege, and half his own forces lost.

He also lost his post, but let us not count that--that was not a predictable outcome in gaming terms. But the other losses could have been anticipated, and prevented. The way the authors portrayed Parson, we had the right to expect this sort of elementary foresight from him--it didn't require the glove, just gaming experience and a clear head.

[SteveMB]

Ansom does. That comes under the "definitely lost" heading, doesn't it?. Had Parson played it safer, he could have gotten perhaps 70%-80% of the siege, with minimal own losses (the dwagons in the weak hex).

Ansom had enough siege units to pound GK from all sides. That implies that even 20%-30% would still be enough to punch through if focused in one region (hexside?). Ergo, a plan that definitely gets 70%-80%, but has no chance of getting near 100%, is a guaranteed failure. A plan that has a chance of getting near 100%, at a risk of a much worse outcome in case of failure, is a calculated risk.

The one possible real mistake Parson made was to get greedy and try to trap Ansom in addition to hitting the siege. Even that is arguable; if Ansom had not been drawn off and instead had taken his turn to gather together as much siege as possible plus himself and other strong units into one stack, that might have protected a siege force sufficient to breach the walls.

[Freederick]

Ansom had enough siege units to pound GK from all sides. That implies that even 20%-30% would still be enough to punch through if focused in one region (hexside?). Ergo, a plan that definitely gets 70%-80%, but has no chance of getting near 100%, is a guaranteed failure. A plan that has a chance of getting near 100%, at a risk of a much worse outcome in case of failure, is a calculated risk.

OK, that does make sense.

The one possible real mistake Parson made was to get greedy and try to trap Ansom in addition to hitting the siege. Even that is arguable; if Ansom had not been drawn off and instead had taken his turn to gather together as much siege as possible plus himself and other strong units into one stack, that might have protected a siege force sufficient to breach the walls.

Definitely. If the trap part were omitted, Parson could have gotten the same effect against siege, at no risk, by simply gathering all the dwagons into a single hex in the forest--no donuts of doom, no shell games. But that would have been less than satisfying in story terms, wouldn't it? So I guess the gamble was inevitable, in a metagaming way.

[SteveMB]

Definitely. If the trap part were omitted, Parson could have gotten the same effect against siege, at no risk, by simply gathering all the dwagons into a single hex in the forest--no donuts of doom, no shell games. But that would have been less than satisfying in story terms, wouldn't it? So I guess the gamble was inevitable, in a metagaming way.

Looked at in another way, I think it was inevitable from Parson's characterization. Judging from his "Hoohoo!" reaction after being informed about Ansom's fog-of-war limitations, the idea was just too friggin' cool for him to pass up once he thought of it. (Perhaps ditto for the idea of hiding the wounded dwagons over the lake, out of reach of Ansom's forest units.)

Yes, he made some mistakes (though I think he's innocent of some of the mistakes attributed to him). Basically, he outsmarted himself.

This may be an indication that, on some level, he still thinks he's just "doing the 'Wizard of Oz' thing."