[WW/Mafia] Mansion Murder Mystery

[Elenna]

Super quick before-lunch post.

Well that's unexpected. Explains why the wolves didn't kill JeenLeen night 1, though. (They were the "more obvious target" I referred to for that night.)
Given that, I think it's more likely that the wolves just picked a night 1 target at random, without realizing that they could put suspicion on lemur for the D2 vote instead.
TBH I wouldn't be surprised if JeenLeen simply forgot that Mordekai was also a wolf and then couldn't find an excuse to change their vote.

[BasketOfPuppies]

There’s probably only one wolf left, right? 3:10 seems like a more plausible ratio than 4:9.

[Xihirli]

Almost certainly, especially if there's Neutrals.

[Elenna]

And I'll follow-up on earlier (albeit small) suspicions and change vote to BasketOfPuppies. Although this is mostly since I want to change my vote away from Cuthalion and BoP is one of the folk without any votes for D2. Unlikely it will lead to a cascade of votes leading to a death.

Ironically, I distinctly remember seeing this and thinking "if JeenLeen weren't practically guaranteed town after D1, I would have voted for them so fast for that." Voting for someone who basically everyone agrees is probably town, while specifically saying that you don't actually want them to die, is... not a good look, to say the least.

- - - Updated - - -

There’s probably only one wolf left, right? 3:10 seems like a more plausible ratio than 4:9.

I could maybe see 4 wolves, 8 town, and 1 neutral. But probably one wolf left, yeah.

[flat_footed]

Flat_footed, are you with us? Have you had a chance to catch up on events thus far? If so, do you have any thoughts on who may be wolves

I'm here, haven't read through everything with a fine tooth comb yet. The only feeling I have is a strong dislike of BoP's vote yesterday, since

(I kid please don't murder me, I'll have a read over everything and make a vote when I get out of classes for the day.)

I guess Voidstar01 since they want out.

-this is a horrible reason to vote. And since votes encourage activity:

BasketofPuppies

[BasketOfPuppies]

Can you lynch me irl to? I've been doing calculus for the last bunch of hours and now welcome death.
(I kid please don't murder me, I'll have a read over everything and make a vote when I get out of classes for the day.)

Flat_Footed for deliberately taking part of a quote out of context to try to condemn someone who seems to be agreed as confirmed as town.

[flat_footed]

Flat_Footed for deliberately taking part of a quote out of context to try to condemn someone who seems to be agreed as confirmed as town.

Like I said, I haven't done a full read yet. And the full quote really doesn't change the meaning of their post, despite you trying to say it does.

[kgato503]

At the time, Voidstar was tied with me for most votes, so I moved my vote so he'd be ahead.

Ah, right, that makes sense.

I know I said I would come back with a vote, but right now I'm still a bit uncertain. I'm still a bit suspicious of Caerulea, but not enough to commit to a vote just yet. The D1 voting history would be really weird if BasketOfPuppies were wolf (not outside the realm of possibilities, especially since the D1 voting history is already a bit weird). And, as for flat_footed, I would like to see his thoughts after reading through everything before considering a vote for them.

BasketOfPuppies, I have another question for you: Why did you specifically not want Caerulea to die? What ultimately made you go with Voidstar01 as a better choice for death?

I'll try to come back in a few hours with a vote.

Spoiler: @ Caerulea:

Show

Ummm, you realize my username is kgato503, right? I don't mind if you shorten it by getting rid of the numbers, but it seems a little weird to drop just one of the numbers, in the middle of the name. Especially since you called someone else out for miss-spelling your username.

[Elenna]

Flat_Footed for deliberately taking part of a quote out of context to try to condemn someone who seems to be agreed as confirmed as town.

I still think you're most likely town, but I'd like to hear some more about that vote too.

The full quote in question is

Can you lynch me irl to? I've been doing calculus for the last bunch of hours and now welcome death.
(I kid please don't murder me, I'll have a read over everything and make a vote when I get out of classes for the day.)

Reads pretty clearly as a joke (pretty clearly as in they literally said they were kidding).

BoP replied to the above quote with

Lynching for inactivity is usually a bad plan, since the autolynch will take care of that. Also I hope that you get a good chance to rest up before your next batch of calculus.

Less than an hour later, BoP changed their vote from bc56 to Voidstar with

I guess Voidstar01 since they want out.

BoP, why did you decide Voidstar was a better target than bc56?

[Elenna]

Okay, I finally got around to doing that player-by-player analysis. Sorry for the long post.

BasketOfPuppies - Likely town, first vote on wolf seer D1. JeenLeen (dead wolf) voted for them D2, albeit with the note that JeenLeen didn't really expect BoP to die because of it. Odd vote for Voidstar late D2, but I can't think of a way that would be a wolf ploy, since I don't think there's more than one wolf left.

bc56 - Slight town, maybe, but I'd like more analysis from them. Argued for not lynching D1, not good gameplay but it's a common thing for a new player to say regardless of alignment. Then voted Xihirli with no given reason (maybe in response to Xihirli voting for them?). Mordekai voted for them D1 which is a point in favor of their towniness. No analysis or arguments yet besides stating D2 that Caerulea looked "shifty". Later claimed that

I'll swap mine to Voidstar as well. I just voted for Caerulea because I needed to choose someone else who had two votes initially.

even though when they voted for Caerulea, the votes were Caerulea 1, Cuthalion 2, Xihirli 1. Perhaps this means that they no longer thought Caerulea was shifty, but kept their vote on her for self-preservation? Seems like an odd way to phrase it. Eventually voted Voidstar D2 for self-preservation. TBH the only reason I'm putting them as slight town is Mordekai's D1 vote.

Caerulea - Slight wolf, although they could easily be a bored neutral or townie who's bad at analysis. Didn't vote D1, hasn't provided much OOC commentary or suspicions. Doesn't think bc56 is a wolf due to "previous posts, and his voting patterns" which is so nonspecific that it seems like a wolf trying to pretend they don't know who's town.

*Should I point this out? I feel like I should, in the interest of honesty, but it might lead to my death. I suppose it is worth it anyway*
Looking at bc56's previous posts, and his voting patterns, it seems unlikely he is a wolf. Perhaps we should lynch somebody else? For now, I won't change my vote, as to do so is nearly suicide, but I would propose we lynch someone like Voidstar0, who is relatively inactive. If anyone changes their vote away from me, I'll move off bc56.

Caerulea, do you have any more thoughts now? What about bc56's posts and voting makes them seem towny to you?
On one hand, Caerulea got bandwagoned pretty fast D2, which doesn't usually happen to wolves since they have other wolves trying to shift the vote off them. On the other hand, if Caerulea is a wolf, there was only one other wolf (JeenLeen) alive at the time, and one person can't really do much redirectiong. On the other other hand, it doesn't look like JeenLeen made any attempt at all to prevent the Caerulea bandwagon(s), since they kept their vote on BoP the whole time, even though they knew the BoP vote wouldn't get any traction. On the fourth hand, JeenLeen was also the deciding vote killing the wolf seer, so IDK how much we can really deduce from her voting patterns. Also, I've turned into a monster with too many hands apparently.

Cuthalion - Dead town. Eavesdropper.

Elenna - Oh look it me. I'm town, but you knew I'd say that.

flyinglemur - Dead town. Crime Novelist or Crime Novel Enthusiast.

JeenLeen - Dead wolf. Working Class.

kgato503 - Town lean. Voted me D1 for appearing to twist their words, which seems like a reasonably towny move given what they saw. I like the active searching for suspicious things. Their thoughts early D2 mostly seem reasonable, and the observation that Mordekai voted for bc56 D1 was helpful. Has generally made useful comments.

Libro - Dead town. Secret Lover.

Logic/flatfooted - No read. Logic didn't say anything until flatfooted replaced him N2. Hasn't had time to read the game yet.

Mordekai - Dead wolf. Academic.

Voidstar01 - Dead town. Secret Lover.

Xihirli - Slight town. Voted bc56 D1 to pressure them into voting, then switched to poking Libro for inactivity. This switch caused Mordekai to be the leading wagon instead of bc56, which makes her look somewhat towny although she could have just not noticed that at the time. (Two votes isn't much of a wagon - I had no idea Mordekai was leading in votes till AV posted the end of day results.) Started D2 by pressuring Caerulea for inactiveness, then realized that the Caerulea wagon had gotten suspiciously large and moved to bc56 instead.

Okay, I don't like the Caerulia wagon very much. It feels too... odd that my poke shot up so fast. I'd be okay with moving to a kgato or bc56 wagon because of how fishy this is to me. Like guys, if they don't respond to a poke let them autolynch.

Kinda curious why she specified kgato or bc there, as opposed to, say, Voidstar, who had a similar level of activeness.
On D3, she posted an analysis on all of JeenLeen's posts, which turned out to be not super useful, but it's a nice thought.

Conclusion: Voting Caerulea for now, would be down to switch to bc56.

[kgato503]

Well, I said I was going to come back with a vote...and in all honesty I still am not sure.

For now I will go with Caerulea. While BasketOfPuppies also looks suspicious to me (due to comment inconsistencies mentioned by Elenna, that Voidstar01 vote is bugging me a bit), Caerulea is still tripping my wolf alarms a bit. In all honesty, I think one of them may be a wolf, and the other a neutral, although I can't figure out which one is which... Though, now that I think about it, the fact that BasketOfPuppies has voted for the person who ended up lynched both days (they voted both for Mordekai and Voidstar01) does remind me of at least one type of neutral I've seen before (whether or not that is useful information is another story).

I will be checking in again before day end, so if a sufficiently convincing argument for a different lynch candidate is made, I may very well change my vote.

[Xihirli]

Kinda curious why she specified kgato or bc there, as opposed to, say, Voidstar, who had a similar level of activeness.
On D3, she posted an analysis on all of JeenLeen's posts, which turned out to be not super useful, but it's a nice thought.

Conclusion: Voting Caerulea for now, would be down to switch to bc56.

Kgato and bc were the ones who piled on Caerulea, the ones I was suspicious of.
But, Caerulea has outright told us her ability, and if my suspicions about the missing wolf role are correct then it's exactly the same ability that the last wolf has.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I thought Voidstar was ok with being lynched bc of their calculus they had to do taking up too much time.

[Caerulea]

Ummm, you realize my username is kgato503, right?

Nope. Totally missed that. My bad, I will attempt to do better in the first one.

Kgato and bc were the ones who piled on Caerulea, the ones I was suspicious of.
But, Caerulea has outright told us her ability, and if my suspicions about the missing wolf role are correct then it's exactly the same ability that the last wolf has.

Why? The two options are Gold Digger, and Pyschopath. What makes you favour the former? I would assume they are equally likely.

Caerulea - Slight wolf, although they could easily be a bored neutral or townie who's bad at analysis.

That's the one. My guess that bc56 was town was mostly instinct, and doesn't have much to go on. I'll point out that if you switch to bc56, we would be tied. If I died, then either both bc56 and I have the Nobility/Gold diggers power or neither of us do. If he died, I am confirmed to have what I claim to have. I'm not sure how much value y'all place on confirming it. I don't think it provides much valuable information, but if Xihirli's hunch that the last wolf is the gold digger is correct then it would be useful.

I'll note that most of your points regarding lack of analysis apply to bc56.
My thoughts regarding those that are left:

Person	Limited Analysis
BasketOfPuppies	Really only seems to follow bandwagons. First voted for Mordekai, which was good, and then followed onto Voidstar0. Doesn't seem wolfy.
bc56	More likely to be wolf than BoP, and has contributed slightly less.
Caerulea	Guaranteed town—Lesser Nobility. (Or so I say)
Elenna	Could be either town or wolf. Produces a large amount of analysis, which is either being very helpful, or a wolf attempting to control the conversation and steer it away from herself/wolves.
kgato503	Similar to Elenna. My intuition is that they are a little more likely to be a wolf than Elenna.
flat_footed	Nothing much to analyse here. Probably not wolf, because I think Logic might have been a bit more active were he a wolf.
Xihirli	Probably not a wolf, because they tried to slow down a bandwagon on someone she would know is not a wolf, were she one (me). Otherwise, no other points.

[Xihirli]

Given the bizarre way the Devil died, it makes me think the beast role isn't in play.

That does assume that decisions made were on purpose, of course.

[Xihirli]

I don't know, maybe I'm just trying to force behavior that doesn't make sense into something that does to me. "The wolves shot each other on accident" doesn't really pass my sniff test.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Day 3

Despite her thorough insistence that she was merely an ordinary noblewoman caught up in all this murder nonsense by complete mistake, the rest of the remaining inheritors were having none of it, and hung Caerulea from the chandelier. After a search for any clues or incriminating evidence, they turned up nothing.

Caerulea was killed. She was the Lesser Nobility.

Night 3 begins now, and will end in ~48 hours.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night 3

the few remaining inheritors searched the manor for useful weapons to defend themselves with, now that they knew there were two people running around shooting folks. One of them, Elenna, was going through a doorway when she was doused in liquid and her vision was obscured! She panicked for a brief moment before she realized that a bucket had just landed on her head, and after removing it, the liquid turned out to be merely water, rather than something more nefarious.

"PRANKED!" came a familiar voice behind her. As she turned to face the person, and give them a piece of her mind about behaving so lackadaisically when a murderer was about, she choked on her words - something to do with the knife buried in her throat, no doubt.

Later, when others discovered the body, they found her notebook, detailing out how she'd wormed her way into their social circle in an attempt to benefit from their last testaments in the long-run - though nothing indicated she had any part in Sir Bartholemew's death. Deeper in the journal, her musings seemed to indicate that she believed someone else in their midst was pulling the same con she was, though she had not identified her competitor.

Elenna died. She was the False Friend.

Spoiler: False Friend

Show

Neutral/False Friend
You wormed your way into this circle of friends through trickery and manipulation; you're not rich, or nobody, or particularly important, but your motivations were simple greed. They were all getting on in years, and you figured some hard work in your youth ingratiating yourself to all of these rich posh types would mean you could live a life of reasonable luxury once they died off. But apparently somebody else had a similar idea and just got tired of waiting, and resorted to murdering one of your wealthier "friends". You're not gonna have an easy time dodging suspicions, but if you can survive the night, you know you're already written into a bunch of wills. Can you make it to see the next sunrise and receive your unearned inheritance far earlier than expected?

Day 4 begins now, and will end in ~48 hours.

When votes are being counted at the end of the Day Phase (including for end-of-game Inheritance count), you count as having received one fewer votes than you did, to a minimum of zero votes. Also, while you're not quite sure who it is, you've got a gut feeling you're not the only False Friend lurking in this house, and your intuition is usually pretty dependable about this kind of thing. Seems you've got some serious competition if you want to win your inheritance...

Spoiler: Player List, because it's probably useful

Show

Player	Died?	Role?
BasketOfPuppies
bc56
Caerulea	Day 3	Lesser Nobility
Cuthalion	Night 2	Eavesdropper
Elenna	Night 3	False Friend
flyinglemur	Night 1	Crime Novelist
JeenLeen	Night 2	Working Class
kgato503
Libro	Day 2	Secret Lover
Logic/flat_footed
Mordokai	Day 1	Academic
Voidstar01	Day 2	Secret Lover
Xihirli

[kgato503]

So, 5 people left, of which at least one is a wolf, and most likely one is another False Friend. So, best case scenario, we have 3 villagers left. Actually, thinking about it, if there is another False Friend, then there can only be one wolf left, otherwise game would have been called (on account of Wolves=Villagers). If we lynch a villager today we will be in a very bad spot, and have to hope that either the Solider kills the wolf (provided we didn't lynch the Solider) or the wolf kills the neutral.

Anyone have any brilliant insight on who isn't a villager?

My thoughts:

BasketOfPuppies- Their voting history leaves me a bit suspicious (previously mentioned, and yes, I know they defended themselves), but I haven't gotten a strong "wolf" vibe from them. I'm leaning towards BasketOfPuppies being a neutral.
bc56- Seems a bit inexperienced, but overall seems to be acting like a new villager or possibly a neutral. Again, no real "wolf" vibe.
kgato503- Villager. Also, confused...
Logic flat_footed-Not a lot of posts to work with. Posted twice without doing a full read. Has not posted since. I would really like more input from them.
Xihirli- Strong Confusion Fu early on, but had made several helpful posts and has been active in analysis and discussion. I'm leaning towards them being a villager.

So, based on all of that, BasketOfPuppies and flat_footed seem to be our best non-village candidates...But, I lack anything resembling confidence in my analytical skills this game. Do either of you have anything to say on the matter?

[BasketOfPuppies]

Yep. I’m the Soldier. N1 I baned myself (couldn’t think of a good kill target), N2 I killed JeenLeen and last night I tried to kill someone but was told I had a note saying my gun was being cleaned for my convenience and I missed my chance.

[kgato503]

Yep. I’m the Soldier. N1 I baned myself (couldn’t think of a good kill target), N2 I killed JeenLeen and last night I tried to kill someone but was told I had a note saying my gun was being cleaned for my convenience and I missed my chance.

!!!!

Yep, my analytical skills stink for this game. I am the village Working Class, and I blocked you last night (sorry ). N1 I targeted flyinglemur and N2 I targeted Cuthalion (sorry guys).

So, got any good reads for today?

[BasketOfPuppies]

Honestly? Not really. As I said earlier, work added 2 shifts a week to my schedule so I’m hard pressed for time to analyze.

[kgato503]

I want to get a vote in now in case tomorrow is busy. I will try to monitor the discussion and change my vote accordingly if needed.

flat_footed, due to to the fact I don't have any better suspects, and I would like to hear more from them.

[Xihirli]

Timeline-wise, Flat_footed makes enough sense. There being only two wolves D1, and one of them being a newbie explains the distancing gone wrong and the night-kill of a target they could have gotten day-killed pretty easily.

[flat_footed]

Apologies to all. I'm in California and been dealing with the forced blackouts recently and only just am getting back in to my PC. Don't even ask what work has been like.

I was initially suspicious of the BoP claim, but see no reason not to honor it. We know there is a Soldier role out there, and without a counterclaim, it should be considered true.

kgato has claimed to have blocked BoP's shot last night, again to no counter. BoP agreeing with both the role and the target seems to be the start of a town network.

That leaves Xihirli and bc56 as the possible wolves. I'm used to a bloodthirsty, dripping with the carrion of the fools who dared to trust her Xihirli. Seeing her as more helpful than murderous seems like a mask, than to believe the years may have dulled her fangs.

[Xihirli]

Oh come on, flat_footed. We've been brutally killing one person every night. I'm sated. Plus I've worked with town fine in the Christmas and Duck games.

- - - Updated - - -

Early on I was bloodthirsty, now I've been drinking awhile and I'm good. Plus we're in the endgame. Way less margin of error.

[flat_footed]

Oh come on, flat_footed. We've been brutally killing one person every night. I'm sated. Plus I've worked with town fine in the Christmas and Duck games.

- - - Updated - - -

Early on I was bloodthirsty, now I've been drinking awhile and I'm good. Plus we're in the endgame. Way less margin of error.

Then you think bc56 is the lone wolf?

[Xihirli]

I'll be honest, flat_footed is looking worse to me than bc56 but that might just be because bc seems to have disappeared.

[flat_footed]

Sadly, flat_footed is the false friend and killing him won't help either Wolf nor Town.

[Xihirli]

Care to shed any light on your win-condition, outside of living? It seems odd to me that a game this small has two identical, (apparently) non-powered neutrals.