Wizards' Guild IC

[Unavenger]

Beyond "who killed who" of course.

Well, I did say "Italicised text." All you know for sure is who died, how they died, their role and roughly what that role does.

[AvatarVecna]

Well, I did say "Italicised text." All you know for sure is who died, how they died, their role and roughly what that role does.

I'm just saying it's more than I'm used to getting. Not that I'm complaining, it's appreciated.

[gac3]

I'll be honest... Between the night and day now... I've no idea what is going on. Of all the theories I was hoping to play out, a mass attack on the paladin Outsider is not what I expected and without more information I'm not sure where to go.

[Caerulea]

Even if flyinglemur's vote was the one that ensured that Xihirli would be killed, it was obvioius that they would vote for whichever counterwagon was in the lead because that was the only way to avoid getting killed.
If anybody, it was flat_footed who decided which one of Xihirli, gac3 and Elenna would form the counterwagon to flyinglemur.

Excellent point. I'm clearly not devious enough to play well. (Or am I‽ The wine is in front of me, after all)

I don't think that the wolves killed The Outsider in retaliation for their vote on Da'Shain, especially since The Outsider said during the night that they would have moved the vote elsewhere if they hadn't missed the deadline. So the only effect would be to draw attention to Da'Shain.

That seems the most probably reason.

I kind of want to vote for flyinglemur, in part because of what JeenLeen said, or possibly flat_footed. Whichever one is, the other is more likely to be as well, I think. However, I'm going to poke BasketOfPuppies instead. They have a habit of popping in, saying they'll say something later, disappearing during the night and doing the same the next morning. So, BasketOfPuppies, what do you have to say? Who will you vote for?

[Elenna]

Well, that's... certainly a night.
I agree the wolves probably killed The Outsider because it wouldn't give much information. The neutral seems to just want to kill everyone non-neutral (assuming it is that last neutral in the list) so, idk, maybe they just picked someone randomly?
I do wonder why the Evoker would have killed The Outsider. Doesn't seem like they could possibly have been really suspicious of The Outsider, given that he barely said anything?

Honestly for all the vote movement on D1 we certainly don't seem to have gotten much information out of it. I'm gonna poke Alexei for now, they basically just made one post at the start of D1 and then left. Alexei, any thoughts on the current state of the game?

Looking back at the voting record, there's not really that much that seems too suspicious ATM. When Xihirli cast her vote for flyinglemur, obstensibly to save AvatarVecna from the lynch...AV wasn't the one up for death, Xihirli was.

Given that Xihirli flipped village, my guess is that they just miscounted (or didn't bother to count at all, given how early it was in the day).

[kgato503]

Well, that was...interesting.

I wonder if the Evoker truly did target The Outsider. It is possible that their Fireball got affected by Transmuter (possibly with the Transmuter managing to protect themselves) or Illusionist (perhaps with the original Fireball being canceled somehow if this was the case)? Just something I think we need to keep in mind moving forward.

For Day 1 analysis, I don't have a lot. Everyone voted (not too note worthy, I know, but somewhat of a novelty for the games around here recently ), no one had an absurd number of votes that they cast, and there was a fair bit of talking going on. Yes, we had a few who were a bit more quiet, but overall we had some good discussions going. Nothing in the voting history is jumping out at me too much right now (although that might change once we have more activity today).

As for voting today...I'll go for some info-poking to start with and ask flat_footed to speak up a bit more, since he didn't say much yesterday. Any thoughts on what's going on? Any insight you wish to share?

[flat_footed]

Apparently a few suspicions are based on if flyinglemur is a wolf or not.

For the moment, I'll shine a light on Libro. They've not added to the conversation at all since the description of AV's name Day 1. They've stayed under the radar since then, and I know they could be an asset to this discussion. Once I'm off mobile I'll take a deeper look in the thread and give some more thoughts.

[Grand Arbiter]

Apparently a few suspicions are based on if flyinglemur is a wolf or not.

For the moment, I'll shine a light on Libro. They've not added to the conversation at all since the description of AV's name Day 1. They've stayed under the radar since then, and I know they could be an asset to this discussion. Once I'm off mobile I'll take a deeper look in the thread and give some more thoughts.

Just caught up on the thread before going to bed. Currently juggling two papers, a pair of research assignments and group work for my theater class, so IRL has been fun.

I’ll run down the player list and give my thoughts before I go to bed. Apologies if it gets incoherent.
1: AvatarVecna: Volume, tone and content of posts makes me think town.
2: The Outsider: What kind of wonky luck is it to be shot by 3(?) night kills as a neutral. Wolves likely either took a random shot or wanted to cast suspiscion. Best guess for the evoker’s reasoning is random shot or going for someone that was quiet during the day phase. Idk about the implied neutral with a nightkill.
3: BasketOfPuppies: Soemthing feels off about their levels of activity. Hopefully all’s well irl.
4: Alandra: Seems town based on tone/content.
5: gac3: new-ish player? Null read
6: Caerulea: mild town lean based on tone.
7: Xihirli-conjurer, D1 lynch
8: flat_footed: as Caerulea.
9: flyinglemur: Null read
10: Libro: Quite stressed over classwork, but town.
11: kgato503: mild town lean
12: JeenLeen: town lean
13: Da'Shain: Null read
14: Elenna: mild town lean
15: Alexei: Null read

Nobody pinging strongly as wolf atm to me. Going to put a vote on Da’Shain for now, and will check in again come morning.

[BasketOfPuppies]

@Caerulea: I like your use of the interrobang. I said I was gonna try to pull something from D1 but was unable to come up with anything I deemed useful. I’d rather not throw up half-baked theories, since they’ll just clog things up.

@Libro: I work 50-hour weeks, go to FNM in Friday’s, and have 2 weekly D&D sessions. Nothing I can’t handle, but yes I’m usually very busy.

I’m going to try spreading votes out a bit and proc flyinglemur.

[Alandra]

Right now I have half a mind to just lynch all the quiet players one after the other. (And yes, I am seriously considering that as a strategy.)
There are so many players here who did literally no analysis at all that I can't imagine that they are all naturally quiet types - I find it much more likely that some are wolves (or maybe neutrals) who hope that we forget about them.

So my main suspects are: BasketOfPuppies, flyinglemur

Also very suspect: Da'Shain, Alexei, probably gac3

@BasketOfPuppies: Maybe you could share at least some of your half-baked theories? Even random speculation could be really helpful.
Every input would help, both to get a read on you and because everything you say might help someone else to formulate their own theories.

The only analysis that flyinglemur did was

I think the most likely people to be wolves are those who didn't vote for either of the two wagons. The wagons formed out of pure day one randomness, and most likely the wolves kept out while letting us non-wolves vote on each other. This gives us a few good possibilities, Jeenleen, DaShain, Alandra, Gaxc3, Libro, Avatar Vecna, and the Outsider. Jeenleen is acting the way he usually does, and seems too helpful to be a wolf. Alandra and Avatar Vecna and the outsider both took their votes off of Xihirili, so I'm inclined to believe they're town.

and the first part was pretty much quoted from my own post at the beginning of the night:

[If flyinglemur is town that] might mean that the wolves (especially the ones who voted later) kept away from the wagons, because they didn't care who got lynched. Which isn't too helpful, since that list includes six people besides myself.

--------Update--------------


I don't think that both flyinglemur and BasketOfPuppies are wolves, because BasketOfPuppies voted for flyinglemur early on and later posted explicitly to say that they find the bandwagons suspicious but would still keep their vote on flyinglemur:

I feel suspicious about the flyinglemur wagon forming. However, I’m going to be keeping my vote on them because they voted for a newbie, which I don’t like d1.

If BasketOfPuppies is a wolf, then I think that flyinglemur is a villager because this sounds to me like a wolf who wants to kill a villager and at the same time wants credit for finding the bandwagon suspicious after it turned out that the person actually was a villager.
On the other hand, if flyinglemur is a wolf than this was a good reason for a wolf to change their vote to somebody else to avoid killing flyinglemur. (Of course it is possible that BasketOfPuppies is a wolf who risked keeping their vote on a fellow wolf. They could have checked shortly before the deadline if flyinglemur would actually get killed, since they already had given a reason that would have explained a last minute change of their vote.)

[JeenLeen]

If BasketOfPuppies is a wolf, then I think that flyinglemur is a villager because this sounds to me like a wolf who wants to kill a villager and at the same time wants credit for finding the bandwagon suspicious after it turned out that the person actually was a villager.
On the other hand, if flyinglemur is a wolf than this was a good reason for a wolf to change their vote to somebody else to avoid killing flyinglemur. (Of course it is possible that BasketOfPuppies is a wolf who risked keeping their vote on a fellow wolf. They could have checked shortly before the deadline if flyinglemur would actually get killed, since they already had given a reason that would have explained a last minute change of their vote.)

I think there's a lot currently that would be revealed by knowing at least one more person's Wolf/Town status. I've really only seen flyinglemur as a good source of info so far, but I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis.

Nobody feels super-wolfish to me, though, so I'm still going by who I think would give the most info + minor suspicions.

If I counted right, flyinglemur, Da'Shain, and BasketOfPuppies are in the lead for votes, albeit not by much.

Current Votes (assuming I didn't make any mistakes)
flyinglemur: JeenLeen, BasketOfPuppies
Da'Shain: AvatarVecna, libro
BasketOfPuppies: Caerulea, Alandra
Alexei: Elenna
flat_footed: kgato503
Libro: flat_footed

Posted in Day 2 but not yet voted: gac3
No vote changes yet

[AvatarVecna]

Maybe you could share at least some of your half-baked theories? Even random speculation could be really helpful.

Unless it's on "good power roles" right?

Actually, I was looking over the D1 votes again and I think I'm going to vote flyinglemur because how they flip would give us some good information. It's also, in retrospect, something obvious enough that it's making me want to cast a FoS on the people saying "there's nothing to analyze D1".

Spoiler: Fingers Of Suspicion

Show

I’m trying to draw some good conclusions from D1, but keep spiraling downwards into WIFOM.

I keep trying to get something out of D1 but I can’t come up with anything new. I’ll try again once we get more info.

Honestly for all the vote movement on D1 we certainly don't seem to have gotten much information out of it.

For Day 1 analysis, I don't have a lot. Everyone voted (not too note worthy, I know, but somewhat of a novelty for the games around here recently ), no one had an absurd number of votes that they cast, and there was a fair bit of talking going on. Yes, we had a few who were a bit more quiet, but overall we had some good discussions going. Nothing in the voting history is jumping out at me too much right now (although that might change once we have more activity today).

I said I was gonna try to pull something from D1 but was unable to come up with anything I deemed useful. I’d rather not throw up half-baked theories, since they’ll just clog things up.

But that's just a side-note. Here's what I really wanna bring to public attention:

We started?! Ack!

*One quick read and tally later*

Okay, I think I'm up to speed... This has been a rather active D1.

Honestly? I'm not sold on either of the main bandwagons. There has been a fair amount of vote switching (which I have seen be a possible indicator of wolves in the past, and is one of the few data points available during D1), but there isn't a huge gap between the leader in that department (Alandra, if I haven't missed anything) and most everyone else (they are onto their 3rd vote of the day, most everyone else is at their 2nd, and a few are still on their 1st).

While Xihirli is normally not to be trusted, I like her suggesting to back off of AvatarVecna for day one (they have been doing a lot of narrating for us, so a one day reprieve to enjoy themselves seems reasonable). And I'm not really comfortable jumping on new players... So I guess I'm leaning towards the flyinglemur wagon. Sorry.

- - - Updated - - -

...And I misread the timestamps and though we were further into the day then we are... Ugh (note, previous post and vote was rushed because I thought D1 was ending soon)

I'll stay with my current vote for now. Flyinglemur, your posts have been fairly short so far. I know we are only into D1 (and I now know we are only halfway through it ), but have you gotten any reads off anyone else? Do you have anything more to say or add? Xihirli, same questions.

This is a post made 34 hours into D1, but by their own words, they thought it was a lot more last-minute than it actually was. Additionally, this is the last vote-post I found during my table write-up. This has kgato503 looking at the existing wagons (which were basically Xihirli 4/flyinglemur 3/the rest aren't even close), and voting for flyinglemur at what they thought was the last minute. Is this the kinda thing a villager might do, sure...but if flyinglemur flips wolf, then this post looks an awful lot like a fellow wolf bussing their friend in a way that they know won't matter so that later in the game they can try and point to it as proof they can't be a wolf because they voted for a wolf D1 when that wolf could've been seriously lynched (while papering over the fact that the timing of their vote means it wouldn't have actually swayed the results).

It's not a guarantee that that's the situation here. But the more I look at things going on D1, and N1, and D2, the more I really wanna see how flyinglemur flips, just cuz it would tell us some interesting stuff.

[JeenLeen]

I've really only seen flyinglemur as a good source of info so far, but I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis.

To correct myself, I did state earlier that I thought AvatarVecna's death would also yield good info. Almost as much as flyinglemur's. But as I look back over things, the shift of votes towards her don't seem as strong as I had read them during Day 1. Maybe it was more between Xihirli and flyinglemur, and not between the three of them, as I was originally thinking. Or maybe I'm too tired right now to process it correctly.

Regardless, I attribute my mistake to a tired body and mind (and a 1-week old plus a 5-year old who woke up at 4 am this morning ). But I wanted to mention it before someone pointed out the self-contradiction. (In some ways, Mafia reminds me of Paranoia, in which a small mis-speak can lead to allies killing you. If I really am contradicting myself, fine, but I don't want to leave it here as an error.)

On the other hand:

*Puts down tea after a long draw.* Tea is a perfectly acceptable drink for us enlightened folk. It strengthens our mind and our connection to that which a wolf could only fathom. However, it seems that these fur dressed nuts have caused a big enough mess that blindly accusing someone is less offensive than waiting for evidence to come forth. That said, to blend in, I feel I must point my fingers at AvatarVecna for suspecting me of false treachery. The pursuit of knowledge is no such crime as you might think. But how could a wolf ever truly understand.

It's possible this was a wolf move by gac3, with the intention of getting votes to start on AvatarVecna, but with a Town-seeming fun-day-1 justification. But I don't get a wolf feeling from gac3 -- I get more a new player feeling (myself one just a couple games ago) -- but I'm mentioning this to throw another tidbit in the "if A dies and is B, then C is probably D" pile of information. I just sorta feel that, if one of them is wolf, the other one probably isn't.

So while I know there was some suspicion on gac3 for hesitating to vote, it feels authentic to me. His Day 2 post also feels authentic.

[Alandra]

@BasketOfPuppies: Maybe you could share at least some of your half-baked theories? Even random speculation could be really helpful.

Unless it's on "good power roles" right?

Yes, true. It could help me decide that the speculator is a wolf, though.

[Elenna]

@AvatarVecna I meant that given the current available information (which doesn't include flyinglemur's role) I'm not saying much information to be gotten from D1. I agree, knowing lemur's role as well as Xihirli's would make that day much more useful. (However, the lack of any real attempt to save them so far today is making me lean more towards villager on them)
Leaving my vote on Alexei for now as they still haven't responded to my poke, though.

[flyinglemur]

Voting BasketOfPuppies, because he's the largest not me wagon. Day 1, as far as I can tell, was a miserable accident. A counter wagon was built around me because Xihirli and Avatar Vecna got a few votes. Then a bunch of people voted Xihirli because the speed at which my wagon grew made it seem like Xihirli was a wolf that other wolves wanted to protect. The wolves probably didn't vote for anyone in particular, because they just wanted someone dead. It's very likely there were wolves on both of the main wagons. My death won't tell you guys nearly as much as you think, because all that speculation you have going on only works if I am a wolf.

[gac3]

Wanting to vote but not yet wanting to jump on a bandwagon. So I'll cast my vote for flatfooted and see where that goes for now.

Spoiler

Show

Current Votes (assuming I didn't make any mistakes)
(3) flyinglemur: JeenLeen, BasketOfPuppies, AvatarVecna
Da'Shain: libro
(3) BasketOfPuppies: Caerulea, Alandra, flyinglemur
Alexei: Elenna
flat_footed: kgato503, gac3
Libro: flat_footed

[kgato503]

@ AvatarVecna: I would like to point out that I did not say that there was no information to be had D1, just that I couldn't figure it out at the current time, and that might change once we had more information (specifically, that I didn't have a lot analysis wise, and that nothing specifically was jumping out at me) . Also, concerning my D1 vote, I'm not sure I'm following your logic. You seem to be claiming that (if flyinglemur and I were wolves) I was doing a distancing move since flyinglemur was safe. But all it would have taken to swing the lynch flyinglemur's way would have been one more vote. That is a very small margin of error, and certainly not low risk . I voted the way I did because I liked Xihirli's idea to spare you D1, which left the only relatively effective thing I could do (or so I thought at the time) was vote for flyinglemur, and hope someone joined me before Day's End. When I figured out there was more time, I saw no reason to change my vote, and I fully expected there to be at least a little more vote action than there turned out to be...and I may have still been confused about time, as I got AM and PM mixed up, and actually thought it was closer to the half-way mark at the time of my update, instead of three-quarters...Yeah not my finest moment .

In other news, I would still like to hear more from flat_footed, so I will keep my vote there for the time being.

[AvatarVecna]

Not saying your post is inherently suspicious, or guarantees you're a wolf if flyinglemur flips wolf. Just saying that if somebody votes last minute D1 for the second-biggest wagon in a way that doesn't change the outcome of the lynch away from a villager, and later it turns out the alt-wagon D1 was a wolf, it could be innocent, but it could also be a wolf that tried to sneak some last-minute distancing in. And that it seems like a maybe-weird move that other veteran players supposedly looking over D1 for analysis didn't mention...also seems weird.

[flyinglemur]

Well I think I'm doomed, so I might as well reveal my role, in case anyone cares to reconsider their vote. I'm a neutral called the savant whose only goal is to survive until the end of the game. My power is to scry someone at night and get a list of the roles they may possibly be, two town, one neutral, and one wolf. Obviously only one is their true role. Last night I tried this on kgato503, but someone role blocked me.

Spoiler: this one

Show

??? This is awesome! You get to see the wizards' powers first-hand! Aww, this is so cool! I mean, yeah, your life is at stake here, but you wanna observe as many neat tricks as you can before the dust settles. I mean, and survive. That's the priority, here.

[BasketOfPuppies]

@flyinglemur: my pronouns are they/them.

Guess I’ll claim too. I’m the Diviner. I scried Elenna as a Neutral last night.

- - - Updated - - -

Alexei has only posted once- a joke vote towards Xihirli. Smells wolfish to me.

Flat_Footed posted once yesterday to correct Unavenger and once today to vote for Libro, later crossing it out. Also not very towny.

Da_Shain has also only posted once- a vote on flat_footed yesterday. Although I’m ok with writing that off as them being new.

All things considered, flat_footed seems to be the best bet.

[flyinglemur]

Sorry about that, my mistake.

In that case, I'll change my vote to flatfooted. I'd feel bad otherwise considering that you've saved me from lynching, and anyone who doesn't want to lynch me is by definition my friend.

[flat_footed]

@flyinglemur: my pronouns are they/them.

Guess I’ll claim too. I’m the Diviner. I scried Elenna as a Neutral last night.

- - - Updated - - -

Alexei has only posted once- a joke vote towards Xihirli. Smells wolfish to me.

Flat_Footed posted once yesterday to correct Unavenger and once today to vote for Libro, later crossing it out. Also not very towny.

Been going through the thread off and on tonight, and I crossed off Libro when I saw he answered my poke. That's pretty common.

Still not at a computer, but I'll try to post something substantial soon. With BoP and flyinglemur both claiming seer type roles, I'll place-hold my vote on Da'Shain for self preservation.

[gac3]

I was planning to change my vote based on these announcements but given the current status, I'll leave it where it is.

Current Votes (assuming I didn't make any mistakes)
(3) flyinglemur: JeenLeen, BasketOfPuppies, AvatarVecna
Da'Shain: libro, flatfooted
(2) BasketOfPuppies: Caerulea, Alandra
Alexei: Elenna
(4*) flat_footed: kgato503, gac3, flyinglemur, AvatarVecna

[BasketOfPuppies]

Been going through the thread off and on tonight, and I crossed off Libro when I saw he answered my poke. That's pretty common.

Still not at a computer, but I'll try to post something substantial soon. With BoP and flyinglemur both claiming seer type roles, I'll place-hold my vote on Da'Shain for self preservation.

Sure, but you also haven’t posted anything else.

@gac: I Ninja-edited you.

[AvatarVecna]

Been going through the thread off and on tonight, and I crossed off Libro when I saw he answered my poke. That's pretty common.

I speak from experience when I say that it can really screw up people's gameplay if somebody unvotes without revoting or announcing that they unvoted. Getting burned in the past, or seeing somebody else get burned by it, tends to make people nervous when people start quietly dropping their votes.

People like me, incidentally. Flat_footed.

[gac3]

Sure, but you also haven’t posted anything else.

@gac: I Ninja-edited you.

I saw that and edited. Will now edit AV's vote into that one.
I will also point out, that if the two people who have copped to their roles are being honest and survive being lynched, they seem like high targets for wolves tonight.

[flat_footed]

I speak from experience when I say that it can really screw up people's gameplay if somebody unvotes without revoting or announcing that they unvoted. Getting burned in the past, or seeing somebody else get burned by it, tends to make people nervous when people start quietly dropping their votes.

People like me, incidentally. Flat_footed.

Yeah, that's fair. Wasn't my intention, but I also didn't want to post again today without something more concrete to add. Removing the vote when I did from Libro was more courtesy than anything, and it just may have gotten me killed. XD

[BasketOfPuppies]

I saw that and edited. Will now edit AV's vote into that one.
I will also point out, that if the two people who have copped to their roles are being honest and survive being lynched, they seem like high targets for wolves tonight.

Better to eat a night kill than a lynch.

[gac3]

Better to eat a night kill than a lynch.

A large part of why I am currently trying to keep my vote off both of you.